The 2019-2020 Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Pacomia]

Honestly though, you shouldn't be too worried. At worst, I'm predicting a Swine Flu, and maybe 0.1% chance of a 1920 Influenza, situation. At best, I'm predicting nothing more than ~1,000 deaths and ~100,000 cases. In the middle, we're hitting Ebola levels, but with less mortality.

I was kinda hoping it wouldn't hit the US. I know that hope was unrealistic, but did it have to hit 20 miles from where I live?

[Satuga]

Honestly though, you shouldn't be too worried. At worst, I'm predicting a Swine Flu, and maybe 0.1% chance of a 1920 Influenza, situation. At best, I'm predicting nothing more than ~1,000 deaths and ~100,000 cases. In the middle, we're hitting Ebola levels, but with less mortality.

I was kinda hoping it wouldn't hit the US. I know that hope was unrealistic, but did it have to hit 20 miles from where I live?

it's about 3k miles away from me lol.

[The World Capitalist Confederation]

These few days will be important in determining the fate of this disease. If it hits one hundred thousand cases by the end of the month, we should begin worrying. If it hits a million...It'll be 1920 all over again.

Not exactly, it won't be like polio because from 1920 to now we have much, much better tech. So even if it is more viral I doubt it would have an effect like 1920 polio.

I meant Influenza, not Polio. The Spanish Flu.

[Satuga]

Not exactly, it won't be like polio because from 1920 to now we have much, much better tech. So even if it is more viral I doubt it would have an effect like 1920 polio.

I meant Influenza, not Polio. The Spanish Flu.

Even then my point does still stand that medicine has made significant improvements to the point diseases/viruses such as these aren't as scary as they used to be.

[The New California Republic]

I was kinda hoping it wouldn't hit the US. I know that hope was unrealistic, but did it have to hit 20 miles from where I live?

it's about 3k miles away from me lol.

There are 3 cases just a few miles from me.

[Satuga]

it's about 3k miles away from me lol.

There are 3 cases just a few miles from me.

Well if you are that close I do urge that you should keep both hand sanitizer and a possible face mask, just for safety as you can never really be too cautious.

[Red Roja]

I just heard that 3 cities in China are on complete lock down now.

[Pangurstan]

I just heard that 3 cities in China are on complete lock down now.

There are 8 cities quarantined right now.

[The World Capitalist Confederation]

I meant Influenza, not Polio. The Spanish Flu.

Even then my point does still stand that medicine has made significant improvements to the point diseases/viruses such as these aren't as scary as they used to be.

That is fair. However, there was another major pandemic in 2009: the Swine Flu. And that's not to mention HIV, which, whilst not as fast-spreading as...literally any other disease, has killed 32 million people since the start of the pandemic. Forget coronavirus, the worst hypothetical pandemic I can imagine is a strain of HIV that spreads through air and water, with a similar incubation period, allowing a sleeper disease to build across the world and then slowly burst over a matter of years.

All that aside, I think the increased transport links means that a theoretical disease can spread much faster, but also be cured much faster thanks to increased research capabilities.

[Red Roja]

I just heard that 3 cities in China are on complete lock down now.

There are 8 cities quarantined right now.

[Earthbound Immortal Squad]

it's about 3k miles away from me lol.

There are 3 cases just a few miles from me.

There is all this stuff about suspected cases across the rest of the world right now but most have not been confirmed by my understanding. So I am going to be an optimist and hope many of these cases are just something else which has fallen in the net with this happening.

[Lord Dominator]

Jumping from whatever species to humans isn't particularly a big deal, quite a few of our diseases come from animals.

I had serious diseases like Ebola and HIV in mind.

Sure. My point is that species jumping is relatively common for diseases and that such doing so doesn't much indicate how dangerous it will end up being.

Honestly though, you shouldn't be too worried. At worst, I'm predicting a Swine Flu, and maybe 0.1% chance of a 1920 Influenza, situation. At best, I'm predicting nothing more than ~1,000 deaths and ~100,000 cases. In the middle, we're hitting Ebola levels, but with less mortality.

What's your basis for these predictions?

Yes there could, but I have a feeling this will last maybe a couple of months before it becomes a smaller issue, as well as the fact the NIH has already stated they're working on a vaccine.

These few days will be important in determining the fate of this disease. If it hits one hundred thousand cases by the end of the month, we should begin worrying. If it hits a million...It'll be 1920 all over again.

It's starting in China, hitting a million is practically guaranteed if it spreads easily enough.

[Major-Tom]

I'm not usually one for hysteria, but I am concerned about this. Look, it's China. They are getting some praise for what is seen as a "vigilant response" to this crisis, but the CPC's primary concern at all times is saving face. It's about self-image. And I would suspect that with the full quarantine of Wuhan and reports that this virus may have been known to the CPC far before any other institution or nation-state knew of it, the figure of "700 infected" is likely a dismally low estimate.

We saw it with the SARS epidemic and I would venture that this is no different. I'm not saying that we're going to undergo some worldwide pandemic, that would be asinine, but I also don't think this is some local virus that will be forgotten about in a few weeks time.

[Pangurstan]

There are 3 cases just a few miles from me.

There is all this stuff about suspected cases across the rest of the world right now but most have not been confirmed by my understanding. So I am going to be an optimist and hope many of these cases are just something else which has fallen in the net with this happening.

There’s one confirmed case 20 miles north of me. It doesn’t sound like the guy infected anyone though.

[Satuga]

Even then my point does still stand that medicine has made significant improvements to the point diseases/viruses such as these aren't as scary as they used to be.

That is fair. However, there was another major pandemic in 2009: the Swine Flu. And that's not to mention HIV, which, whilst not as fast-spreading as...literally any other disease, has killed 32 million people since the start of the pandemic. Forget coronavirus, the worst hypothetical pandemic I can imagine is a strain of HIV that spreads through air and water, with a similar incubation period, allowing a sleeper disease to build across the world and then slowly burst over a matter of years.

All that aside, I think the increased transport links means that a theoretical disease can spread much faster, but also be cured much faster thanks to increased research capabilities.

That's world wide however, in more developed countries deaths are a lot more rare,
4k in the US
138 in the UK
310 in France
250 in Germany
etc. (2009 deaths)
These diseases effect poor countries a fuck ton more as they don't have proper modern medicine or modern infrastructure to handle these kind of epidemics

[The New California Republic]

I'm not usually one for hysteria, but I am concerned about this. Look, it's China. They are getting some praise for what is seen as a "vigilant response" to this crisis, but the CPC's primary concern at all times is saving face. It's about self-image. And I would suspect that with the full quarantine of Wuhan and reports that this virus may have been known to the CPC far before any other institution or nation-state knew of it, the figure of "700 infected" is likely a dismally low estimate.

We saw it with the SARS epidemic and I would venture that this is no different. I'm not saying that we're going to undergo some worldwide pandemic, that would be asinine, but I also don't think this is some local virus that will be forgotten about in a few weeks time.

Yes, given their previous attitude in the other outbreaks, I doubt China is being entirely forthcoming about how serious it is.

[Pangurstan]

I'm not usually one for hysteria, but I am concerned about this. Look, it's China. They are getting some praise for what is seen as a "vigilant response" to this crisis, but the CPC's primary concern at all times is saving face. It's about self-image. And I would suspect that with the full quarantine of Wuhan and reports that this virus may have been known to the CPC far before any other institution or nation-state knew of it, the figure of "700 infected" is likely a dismally low estimate.

We saw it with the SARS epidemic and I would venture that this is no different. I'm not saying that we're going to undergo some worldwide pandemic, that would be asinine, but I also don't think this is some local virus that will be forgotten about in a few weeks time.

Yes, given their previous attitude in the other outbreaks, I doubt China is being entirely forthcoming about how serious it is.

Their response suggests that it’s more severe than they say so. If there’s only 500 cases, mostly in Wuhan, then why are they quarantining 8 cities?

[Major-Tom]

I'm not usually one for hysteria, but I am concerned about this. Look, it's China. They are getting some praise for what is seen as a "vigilant response" to this crisis, but the CPC's primary concern at all times is saving face. It's about self-image. And I would suspect that with the full quarantine of Wuhan and reports that this virus may have been known to the CPC far before any other institution or nation-state knew of it, the figure of "700 infected" is likely a dismally low estimate.

We saw it with the SARS epidemic and I would venture that this is no different. I'm not saying that we're going to undergo some worldwide pandemic, that would be asinine, but I also don't think this is some local virus that will be forgotten about in a few weeks time.

Yes, given their previous attitude in the other outbreaks, I doubt China is being entirely forthcoming about how serious it is.

I distinctly recall that during the SARS crisis, doctors were explicitly told not to make a fuss about it. They'd often send patients home with the simple request of "go home and just stay there." Of course, there were a great number of people who didn't listen to their doctors, and thus the SARS crisis was far worse in the Guangdong province than it could've been.

[J o J]

At this point, 17 have died and nearly 600 are infected across half a dozen countries.

All of the deaths have been in China, and China being China, we can expect that they are lying about the severity like they did during the SARS outbreak, and this won't be some little spread of a mediocre virus. It is no means for panic, but it is something that the general populace of the world should be aware of and keep an eye out for.

There has been one confirmed case in the USA, in the state of Washington.

Japan, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, and Hong Kong have cases as well but no reported deaths, as stated before all deaths have been in China at this time.

We are likely to wait up to at least a month at best before any kind of vaccine is available against this new virus.

[Nantoraka]

Food market at centre of deadly coronavirus outbreak admits selling live koalas, snakes, rats and wolves.

Live Koalas. Scumbags.
2020 is not Koala's year.

Reminder there is a thing called gutter oil, which is a cooking oil recycled from sewage in China. I mean, this was bound to happen in that Asian shithole.

[The New California Republic]

Food market at centre of deadly coronavirus outbreak admits selling live koalas, snakes, rats and wolves. 2020 is not Koala's year.

Reminder there is a thing called gutter oil, which is a cooking oil recycled from sewage in China. I mean, this was bound to happen in that Asian shithole.

It looks increasingly likely that it jumped the species barrier from snakes to humans, as preliminary genetic analysis has hinted.

[Shamhnan Insir]

At this point, 17 have died and nearly 600 are infected across half a dozen countries.

All of the deaths have been in China, and China being China, we can expect that they are lying about the severity like they did during the SARS outbreak, and this won't be some little spread of a mediocre virus. It is no means for panic, but it is something that the general populace of the world should be aware of and keep an eye out for.

There has been one confirmed case in the USA, in the state of Washington.

Japan, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, and Hong Kong have cases as well but no reported deaths, as stated before all deaths have been in China at this time.

We are likely to wait up to at least a month at best before any kind of vaccine is available against this new virus.

Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary geneticist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle:

“There’s very little diversity. I expected to see more and I think other people did as well.” The lack of genetic diversity suggests that the common ancestor of the different human strains emerged in November or December and has spread rapidly, and hasn’t gained many mutations. Those it has gained tend to be distinct for each virus sequence. However, Bedford adds, the genomes don’t yet indicate whether the rapid expansion of the virus occurred in humans or in an animal reservoir. Evolutionary geneticist Andrew Rambaut at the University of Edinburgh, UK, posted an analysis on 20 January that came to a similar conclusion.

We're doing well to have what we have so far. The scientists who are still able to share data have been very fast in doing so, however there is evidence to suggest such resources are being silenced in a bid to control the flow of information leaving China. As for a vaccine, the fact that it hasn't gained too much diversity is good news but we are very early days.
Oddly enough (depending on who you speak to) the fact it appears to have little diversity in the immediacy points potentially to artificial mechanics behind it.

[LimaUniformNovemberAlpha]

Food market at centre of deadly coronavirus outbreak admits selling live koalas, snakes, rats and wolves.

Live Koalas. Scumbags.
2020 is not Koala's year.

Reminder there is a thing called gutter oil, which is a cooking oil recycled from sewage in China. I mean, this was bound to happen in that Asian shithole.

Here's a picture.



What species is that? It looks neither like a koala, nor a snake, nor a rat, nor a wolf.

[Shamhnan Insir]

Food market at centre of deadly coronavirus outbreak admits selling live koalas, snakes, rats and wolves.

Live Koalas. Scumbags.
2020 is not Koala's year.

Reminder there is a thing called gutter oil, which is a cooking oil recycled from sewage in China. I mean, this was bound to happen in that Asian shithole.

Here's a picture.



What species is that? It looks neither like a koala, nor a snake, nor a rat, nor a wolf.

Some sort of marmot in the top cages, and then what appears as a small ungulate.
Marmots do tend to have very high parasite loads, as with other similar species. But theres nothing to suggest that makes them a likely source of this.

[The New California Republic]

Marmots do tend to have very high parasite loads, as with other similar species. But theres nothing to suggest that makes them a likely source of this.

As I said earlier, initial analysis hints that the source is snakes:

Some researchers have suggested the illness may have originated in snakes. A study published on Wednesday in the Journal of Medical Virology said genetic analysis suggests snakes are "the most probable wildlife animal reservoir" for the virus, but this would need to be confirmed by other studies. Other researchers have questioned the claim.