The 2019-2020 Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Bombadil]

I heard this one is much less deadly ?

Basically any time you get animals and people crowded like that it will spawn potentially super daengrous viruses.
Because, for most viruses, they don’t evolve if they kill the host before transmitting, and dead hosts mean less transmitting, but when it comes from different animals, it doesn't know not to kill humans..

Supposedly, you have 50% chance of surviving it.

I don't think that's correct at all, death rate is estimated at only 2% as far as we currently know, but then we don't know too much regardless. To be honest, closing down Wuhan, a city of some 11M people seems highly drastic, especially since it's already spread.

[Pangurstan]

And yet, Africa gave us Ebola.

Sorry, the evidence of deliberate biological warfare is not adequately strong.

Live animal markets and bush meat is a huge ground-zero for disease. China's notorious for those imports.

There are 7 known human coronaviruses according to wikipedia. 3 of them are from china...

[Luziyca]

Supposedly, you have 50% chance of surviving it.

I don't think that's correct at all, death rate is estimated at only 2% as far as we currently know, but then we don't know too much regardless. To be honest, closing down Wuhan, a city of some 11M people seems highly drastic, especially since it's already spread.

I reckon that'll at least minimize the damage.

[Bombadil]

I don't think that's correct at all, death rate is estimated at only 2% as far as we currently know, but then we don't know too much regardless. To be honest, closing down Wuhan, a city of some 11M people seems highly drastic, especially since it's already spread.

I reckon that'll at least minimize the damage.

Well it's just happened, 10am here and Wuhan is effectively closed. Personally I think it's overkill as part of the government's ongoing desperate PR. It's been around since early December, so nearly two months for it to have already spread, and also why they've probably highly under-reported the actuals.

Meanwhile a menu list from Huanan Market, where this supposedly originated from, has been doing the rounds..

A price list circulating on China's internet for a business at the Wuhan market lists a menagerie of animals or animal-based products including live foxes, crocodiles, wolf puppies, giant salamanders, snakes, rats, peacocks, porcupines, camel meat and other game -- 112 items in all.

"Freshly slaughtered, frozen and delivered to your door," said the price list for the vendor, "Wild Game Animal Husbandry for the Masses".

[Outer Sparta]

Live animal markets and bush meat is a huge ground-zero for disease. China's notorious for those imports.

There are 7 known human coronaviruses according to wikipedia. 3 of them are from china...

And of course, live animal imports and bushmeat often increase the risk of disease transmission.

[LimaUniformNovemberAlpha]

I reckon that'll at least minimize the damage.

Well it's just happened, 10am here and Wuhan is effectively closed. Personally I think it's overkill as part of the government's ongoing desperate PR. It's been around since early December, so nearly two months for it to have already spread, and also why they've probably highly under-reported the actuals.

Meanwhile a menu list from Huanan Market, where this supposedly originated from, has been doing the rounds..

A price list circulating on China's internet for a business at the Wuhan market lists a menagerie of animals or animal-based products including live foxes, crocodiles, wolf puppies, giant salamanders, snakes, rats, peacocks, porcupines, camel meat and other game -- 112 items in all.

"Freshly slaughtered, frozen and delivered to your door," said the price list for the vendor, "Wild Game Animal Husbandry for the Masses".

Question; would putting pressure on China to make all surveillance live feeds public (except in sensitive areas like military bases) allow them to help track such things in the future before they get out of hand?

[Luziyca]

Well it's just happened, 10am here and Wuhan is effectively closed. Personally I think it's overkill as part of the government's ongoing desperate PR. It's been around since early December, so nearly two months for it to have already spread, and also why they've probably highly under-reported the actuals.

Meanwhile a menu list from Huanan Market, where this supposedly originated from, has been doing the rounds..

A price list circulating on China's internet for a business at the Wuhan market lists a menagerie of animals or animal-based products including live foxes, crocodiles, wolf puppies, giant salamanders, snakes, rats, peacocks, porcupines, camel meat and other game -- 112 items in all.

"Freshly slaughtered, frozen and delivered to your door," said the price list for the vendor, "Wild Game Animal Husbandry for the Masses".

Question; would putting pressure on China to make all surveillance live feeds public (except in sensitive areas like military bases) allow them to help track such things in the future before they get out of hand?

Sure, because people are totally willing to watch a live surveillance feed of some small village in rural China in the middle of the night. It's not like anyone has better things to do like post on NS, no siree.

[The Legion of Mankind]

Doesn’t an outbreak like this happen every 20 years of a new century?

[Freethinkers]

Supposedly, you have 50% chance of surviving it.

I don't think that's correct at all, death rate is estimated at only 2% as far as we currently know, but then we don't know too much regardless. To be honest, closing down Wuhan, a city of some 11M people seems highly drastic, especially since it's already spread.

I think part of that is because chinese society prizes stability and control extremely highly, so something like a new disease, which cannot be easily controlled and can snowball into crisis, is something the government is not used to dealing with and therefore overreacted.

[Freethinkers]

Supposedly, you have 50% chance of surviving it.

I don't think that's correct at all, death rate is estimated at only 2% as far as we currently know, but then we don't know too much regardless. To be honest, closing down Wuhan, a city of some 11M people seems highly drastic, especially since it's already spread.

The disease has begun to spread extremely quickly only in the past few days, so there is a definite lag regarding the fatality rate.

[Bombadil]

Well it's just happened, 10am here and Wuhan is effectively closed. Personally I think it's overkill as part of the government's ongoing desperate PR. It's been around since early December, so nearly two months for it to have already spread, and also why they've probably highly under-reported the actuals.

Meanwhile a menu list from Huanan Market, where this supposedly originated from, has been doing the rounds..

A price list circulating on China's internet for a business at the Wuhan market lists a menagerie of animals or animal-based products including live foxes, crocodiles, wolf puppies, giant salamanders, snakes, rats, peacocks, porcupines, camel meat and other game -- 112 items in all.

"Freshly slaughtered, frozen and delivered to your door," said the price list for the vendor, "Wild Game Animal Husbandry for the Masses".

Question; would putting pressure on China to make all surveillance live feeds public (except in sensitive areas like military bases) allow them to help track such things in the future before they get out of hand?

I think tighter regulation on the import and sales of illegal wildlife would be a start. Regulation of these markets would be another. There's a bunch of videos going round showing people eating bats.. stop eating bats people. As for the poor Pangolin, which has been decimated by China consumption..

..odd aspects that arise from this, during SARS a rumour went round that drinking Green Tea and Chivas Regal was a preventative cure, which sent sales of Chivas through the roof, and it's still a basic staple of nightclubs in China, you order a table through buying a bottle.

If there's a smart brand out there they'd start the rumour they're a cure for this one.

[Outer Sparta]

Question; would putting pressure on China to make all surveillance live feeds public (except in sensitive areas like military bases) allow them to help track such things in the future before they get out of hand?

I think tighter regulation on the import and sales of illegal wildlife would be a start. Regulation of these markets would be another. There's a bunch of videos going round showing people eating bats.. stop eating bats people. As for the poor Pangolin, which has been decimated by China consumption..

..odd aspects that arise from this, during SARS a rumour went round that drinking Green Tea and Chivas Regal was a preventative cure, which sent sales of Chivas through the roof, and it's still a basic staple of nightclubs in China, you order a table through buying a bottle.

If there's a smart brand out there they'd start the rumour they're a cure for this one.

The bushmeat and wildlife trade have to stop or else China's also importing diseases that come with them. I've been to China. They have those sort of live animals everywhere in unsanitary markets and there are some menu items I wouldn't even eat to avoid the risk of food poisoning or disease.

[Senkaku]

dreaming of sexily dying in a desert sanatorium wearing a nightgown at 11 am on a clear spring day from deadly chinese coronavirus

[Genivaria]

Read this on a CNN Health page, can anyone corroborate this?

A study by researchers in the UK estimated that the number of infections in Wuhan is still grossly underestimated, with the real number closer to 4,000 as of January 18, based on the spread of the virus to other cities and countries in a relatively short period of time.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/22/world/wu ... index.html

There's no link to this alleged study on the article but 4,000 cases in Wuhan alone as opposed to 571 worldwide is a gigantic fucking deal.
Can anyone corroborate this?

[Greater Cesnica]

dreaming of sexily dying in a desert sanatorium wearing a nightgown at 11 am on a clear spring day from deadly chinese coronavirus

Oh yes baby.


Also:

1720: Plague
1820: Plague
1920: Plague
2020: Coronavirus?

[The Legion of Mankind]

dreaming of sexily dying in a desert sanatorium wearing a nightgown at 11 am on a clear spring day from deadly chinese coronavirus

Oh yes baby.


Also:

1720: Plague
1820: Plague
1920: Plague
2020: Coronavirus?

Ikr! Literally a damn curse.

[Bombadil]

Read this on a CNN Health page, can anyone corroborate this?

A study by researchers in the UK estimated that the number of infections in Wuhan is still grossly underestimated, with the real number closer to 4,000 as of January 18, based on the spread of the virus to other cities and countries in a relatively short period of time.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/22/world/wu ... index.html

There's no link to this alleged study on the article but 4,000 cases in Wuhan alone as opposed to 571 worldwide is a gigantic fucking deal.
Can anyone corroborate this?

Essentially what they did was calculate the odds of the virus being in 6 or 7 other countries with only 571 infections in China.. and it doesn't add up. However, original symptoms may have been mild enough that people simply didn't check in, doctors didn't diagnose correctly and a host of other issues.

It's been around since early December, it would be remarkable if there's only 571 infections and the fact they've closed an entire city of 11m is..

[Totally Not OEP]

Supposedly, you have 50% chance of surviving it.

I don't think that's correct at all, death rate is estimated at only 2% as far as we currently know, but then we don't know too much regardless. To be honest, closing down Wuhan, a city of some 11M people seems highly drastic, especially since it's already spread.

Honestly, this suggests to me its a lot worse than they're admitting and seems more in line with the 50% this poster was citing.

[Pangurstan]

I don't think that's correct at all, death rate is estimated at only 2% as far as we currently know, but then we don't know too much regardless. To be honest, closing down Wuhan, a city of some 11M people seems highly drastic, especially since it's already spread.

Honestly, this suggests to me its a lot worse than they're admitting and seems more in line with the 50% this poster was citing.

SARS had a death rate of about 9%. Ebola has a death rate of around 50%

[Freethinkers]

dreaming of sexily dying in a desert sanatorium wearing a nightgown at 11 am on a clear spring day from deadly chinese coronavirus

My body is ready XD

[Totally Not OEP]

Honestly, this suggests to me its a lot worse than they're admitting and seems more in line with the 50% this poster was citing.

SARS had a death rate of about 9%. Ebola has a death rate of around 50%

Ebola without treatment is like 90%. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if this is closer to SARs or MERs, with a ~10% or so death rate. If it's just 2%, I see absolutely no reason for them to be shutting down Wuhan like they are; it incites panic and rumors, something the CCP disdains. If they're willing to risk it here, that suggests it's really serious.

[Pangurstan]

Read this on a CNN Health page, can anyone corroborate this?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/22/world/wu ... index.html

There's no link to this alleged study on the article but 4,000 cases in Wuhan alone as opposed to 571 worldwide is a gigantic fucking deal.
Can anyone corroborate this?

Essentially what they did was calculate the odds of the virus being in 6 or 7 other countries with only 571 infections in China.. and it doesn't add up. However, original symptoms may have been mild enough that people simply didn't check in, doctors didn't diagnose correctly and a host of other issues.

It's been around since early December, it would be remarkable if there's only 571 infections and the fact they've closed an entire city of 11m is..

It took SARS until april of 2003 to hit 4000 cases. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were over 571 infections though.

[Bombadil]

This is not going well for China, either it's overkill in which case they've effectively cancelled Christmas for a city for no reason, or it's a serious problem in which case they'll be slammed for hiding it earlier.

“I am a bit panicked because before the government said it wasn’t serious so no one thought it was a big deal,” said Wang Ying, 26, a government worker who described going out amid large crowds on New Year’s Eve, despite the virus being detected then.

“Then this morning, Wuhan was suddenly sealed off. I think the government’s early warnings were not enough.”

..or have they created needless panic..

A sense of panic has spread in Wuhan as the central Chinese city was put on lockdown in an attempt to quarantine a deadly virus believed to have originated there.

Supermarket shelves were empty and local markets sold out of produce as residents hoarded supplies and isolated themselves at home. Petrol stations were overwhelmed as drivers stocked up on fuel, exacerbated by rumours that reserves had run out. Local residents said pharmacies had sold out of face masks.

Few pedestrians were on the street and families cancelled plans to get together for the Chinese New Year holiday. Videos posted online showed highway routes out of the city had also been blocked. Special police forces were seen patrolling railway stations.

“When I saw the news when I woke up, I felt like I was going to go crazy. This is a little late now. The government’s measures are not enough,” said Xiao, 26, a primary school teacher in Wuhan, who asked not to give her full name.

Imagine being told, where you live, that there's nothing to worry about and then suddenly there's a full-scale shutdown of the city.

[Totally Not OEP]

This is not going well for China, either it's overkill in which case they've effectively cancelled Christmas for a city for no reason, or it's a serious problem in which case they'll be slammed for hiding it earlier.

“I am a bit panicked because before the government said it wasn’t serious so no one thought it was a big deal,” said Wang Ying, 26, a government worker who described going out amid large crowds on New Year’s Eve, despite the virus being detected then.

“Then this morning, Wuhan was suddenly sealed off. I think the government’s early warnings were not enough.”

..or have they created needless panic..

A sense of panic has spread in Wuhan as the central Chinese city was put on lockdown in an attempt to quarantine a deadly virus believed to have originated there.

Supermarket shelves were empty and local markets sold out of produce as residents hoarded supplies and isolated themselves at home. Petrol stations were overwhelmed as drivers stocked up on fuel, exacerbated by rumours that reserves had run out. Local residents said pharmacies had sold out of face masks.

Few pedestrians were on the street and families cancelled plans to get together for the Chinese New Year holiday. Videos posted online showed highway routes out of the city had also been blocked. Special police forces were seen patrolling railway stations.

“When I saw the news when I woke up, I felt like I was going to go crazy. This is a little late now. The government’s measures are not enough,” said Xiao, 26, a primary school teacher in Wuhan, who asked not to give her full name.

Imagine being told, where you live, that there's nothing to worry about and then suddenly there's a full-scale shutdown of the city.

If they lied and it's serious, they need to be a hell of a lot more concerned over whether or not this is the big one we've all been waiting for years now. If it is the Big One, everyone-not just the Chinese-needs to be getting the fuck ready.

[Bombadil]

This is not going well for China, either it's overkill in which case they've effectively cancelled Christmas for a city for no reason, or it's a serious problem in which case they'll be slammed for hiding it earlier.

“I am a bit panicked because before the government said it wasn’t serious so no one thought it was a big deal,” said Wang Ying, 26, a government worker who described going out amid large crowds on New Year’s Eve, despite the virus being detected then.

“Then this morning, Wuhan was suddenly sealed off. I think the government’s early warnings were not enough.”

..or have they created needless panic..

A sense of panic has spread in Wuhan as the central Chinese city was put on lockdown in an attempt to quarantine a deadly virus believed to have originated there.

Supermarket shelves were empty and local markets sold out of produce as residents hoarded supplies and isolated themselves at home. Petrol stations were overwhelmed as drivers stocked up on fuel, exacerbated by rumours that reserves had run out. Local residents said pharmacies had sold out of face masks.

Few pedestrians were on the street and families cancelled plans to get together for the Chinese New Year holiday. Videos posted online showed highway routes out of the city had also been blocked. Special police forces were seen patrolling railway stations.

“When I saw the news when I woke up, I felt like I was going to go crazy. This is a little late now. The government’s measures are not enough,” said Xiao, 26, a primary school teacher in Wuhan, who asked not to give her full name.

Imagine being told, where you live, that there's nothing to worry about and then suddenly there's a full-scale shutdown of the city.

If they lied and it's serious, they need to be a hell of a lot more concerned over whether or not this is the big one we've all been waiting for years now. If it is the Big One, everyone-not just the Chinese-needs to be getting the fuck ready.

They're screwed both ways, if they lied and it's serious then they've put the whole world at risk, if it's not really that bad they're going to have a very angry city of Wuhan for cancelling Chinese New Year. It'll be interesting to see how the media spins it but the upshot is that over this past year people in China have been strongly questioning the CCP's approach to the truth.