The 2019-2020 Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Outer Sparta]

It's hit South Korea now..

South Korea reported on Monday its first confirmed case of a new coronavirus that has broken out in China, Reuters reports, citing South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC).

The patient is a 35-year-old Chinese woman and resident of Wuhan, China who flew from Wuhan to Incheon international airport on Sunday, KCDC was quoted as saying in a statement.

She was isolated on entering South Korea with symptoms including high fever.

“The confirmed patient was identified in the quarantine phase and there is no community exposure. Those that have come in contact, including passengers and aircraft crew, are currently being investigated,” KCDC said. It did not give details of the woman’s flight.

Ironically HK may be safer this time round since people aren't visiting from Mainland China..

Can't they just block flights coming from cities with the virus like Wuhan?

[Bombadil]

Human to human transmission now confirmed..

China’s National Health Commission has confirmed human-to-human transmission of a mysterious Sars-like virus that has spread across the country and fuelled anxiety about the prospect of a major outbreak as millions begin travelling for lunar new year celebrations.

Zhong Nanshan, a respiratory expert and head of the health commission team investigating the outbreak, confirmed that two cases of infection in China’s Guangdong province had been caused by human-to-human transmission and medical staff had been infected, China’s official Xinhua news agency said on Monday.

[Vetalia]

True, but SARS had a 10% mortality rate which puts it on the low end for the mortality rate of the Spanish Flu if this coronavirus has a similar mortality rate. If the 1,700 estimated cases cited in the OP is correct that would put it at about 25% of the cases from SARS and on track to outpace cases from MERS.

SARS and MERS are rarer viral cases, which distinguishes them from generic viral infections.

True, but they were also coronaviruses. On the upside, at least it's not Captain Trips...

[Outer Sparta]

SARS and MERS are rarer viral cases, which distinguishes them from generic viral infections.

True, but they were also coronaviruses.

Early action, quarantine, and vigorous health screenings are needed to effectively contain these viral outbreaks before they have the chance to spread across the world. We'll see how vigorous East and Southeast Asian governments are in their action.

[Kargintina the Third]

I am sure the Chinese Communist Party will be able to effectively manage this crisis and not proceed to make it worse in any way.

[Vetalia]

True, but they were also coronaviruses.

Early action, quarantine, and vigorous health screenings are needed to effectively contain these viral outbreaks before they have the chance to spread across the world. We'll see how vigorous East and Southeast Asian governments are in their action.

I imagine if they were able to contain SARS in 2003 when China's level of economic development was less than 1/8th of what it is today they should be able to do so now.

[Outer Sparta]

Early action, quarantine, and vigorous health screenings are needed to effectively contain these viral outbreaks before they have the chance to spread across the world. We'll see how vigorous East and Southeast Asian governments are in their action.

I imagine if they were able to contain SARS in 2003 when China's level of economic development was less than 1/8th of what it is today they should be able to do so now.

Of course, China's increasing connectivity by its increased air travel and huge high-speed rail network (which didn't exist in 2003) will make it harder to contain this virus, so they'll have to act more vigilantly.

[Vetalia]

I imagine if they were able to contain SARS in 2003 when China's level of economic development was less than 1/8th of what it is today they should be able to do so now.

Of course, China's increasing connectivity by its increased air travel and huge high-speed rail network (which didn't exist in 2003) will make it harder to contain this virus, so they'll have to act more vigilantly.

That's true as well.

[The Strangers Club]

Alas, Plaque Inc. begins!

[Vetalia]

Alas, Plaque Inc. begins!

Plaque, Inc.? This isn't a toothpaste commercial.

Seriously, though, this has more of a The Stand vibe to it. I feel a strange calling to go to Las Vegas.

[Outer Sparta]

Alas, Plaque Inc. begins!

Plaque, Inc.? This isn't a toothpaste commercial.

Seriously, though, this has more of a The Stand vibe to it. I feel a strange calling to go to Las Vegas.

If it's Plague Inc. then Greenland suddenly becomes relevant.

[Bombadil]

Early action, quarantine, and vigorous health screenings are needed to effectively contain these viral outbreaks before they have the chance to spread across the world. We'll see how vigorous East and Southeast Asian governments are in their action.

I imagine if they were able to contain SARS in 2003 when China's level of economic development was less than 1/8th of what it is today they should be able to do so now.

Except they're weren't.. SARS was way worse than it should have been. They're a bit better now but still the same authoritarian tendencies including arresting 8 people for sharing the news on social media with comments such as 'its a very patriotic virus to only spread overseas and not in China', a comment on the suppression of news in China.

[Vetalia]

I imagine if they were able to contain SARS in 2003 when China's level of economic development was less than 1/8th of what it is today they should be able to do so now.

Except they're weren't.. SARS was way worse than it should have been. They're a bit better now but still the same authoritarian tendencies including arresting 8 people for sharing the news on social media with comments such as 'its a very patriotic virus to only spread overseas and not in China', a comment on the suppression of news in China.

Hmm, makes me wonder if this one wasn't an accidental release, if you know what I mean.

[Bombadil]

Except they're weren't.. SARS was way worse than it should have been. They're a bit better now but still the same authoritarian tendencies including arresting 8 people for sharing the news on social media with comments such as 'its a very patriotic virus to only spread overseas and not in China', a comment on the suppression of news in China.

Hmm, makes me wonder if this one wasn't an accidental release, if you know what I mean.

Doubt it, it has actually spread in China with cases being reported in Beijing and Guangdong, One has to assume it's everywhere if it's in the far North and far South. It's just the usual downplaying although Xi Jinping has recently made an announcement on the issue so I suspect a lot more will shortly come out. However the effects of initially downplaying means:

a. it's spread to other countries
b. China citizens are not overly concerned
Li said that starting from late December, the property developer that owned the market asked renters to wear masks to work and avoid going to crowded places. “I’m not worried,” said Li. “My grandchildren all live in Wuhan and we don’t believe it. It’s just rumours.”

Though some are..

“With this huge amount of spring festival travel, why are there not any prevention measures?” one wrote on Weibo. On the Douban forum, another observed that few people at Wuhan train station were wearing masks.

Hopefully this is all mild but with the mass migration within and outside China coming with Chinese New Year.. it's a perfect storm if it's not.

[Vetalia]

Doubt it, it has actually spread in China with cases being reported in Beijing and Guangdong, One has to assume it's everywhere if it's in the far North and far South. It's just the usual downplaying although Xi Jinping has recently made an announcement on the issue so I suspect a lot more will shortly come out. However the effects of initially downplaying means:

a. it's spread to other countries
b. China citizens are not overly concerned
Li said that starting from late December, the property developer that owned the market asked renters to wear masks to work and avoid going to crowded places. “I’m not worried,” said Li. “My grandchildren all live in Wuhan and we don’t believe it. It’s just rumours.”

Though some are..

“With this huge amount of spring festival travel, why are there not any prevention measures?” one wrote on Weibo. On the Douban forum, another observed that few people at Wuhan train station were wearing masks.

Hopefully this is all mild but with the mass migration within and outside China coming with Chinese New Year.. it's a perfect storm if it's not.

Just seems a little strange that China has had two outbreaks of novel coronaviruses in less than 20 years when this hasn't happened anywhere else on Earth during the same timeframe, not even in Africa or SE Asia with their massive population expansion, endemic population of coronaviruses and still-significant poverty. How on Earth does this happen twice in less than 20 years in China of all places, which by any means is much more developed than any of those nations? If latitude were the explanation the United States would have produced a similar number of novel coronaviruses.

Looks like the Chinese might have been up to something in their biological weapons program that flew the coop a little too early, just like with SARS in 2003. Even more curious that both epidemics are from the same group of viruses, as if that were the ones they were focused on weaponizing.

[Bombadil]

Doubt it, it has actually spread in China with cases being reported in Beijing and Guangdong, One has to assume it's everywhere if it's in the far North and far South. It's just the usual downplaying although Xi Jinping has recently made an announcement on the issue so I suspect a lot more will shortly come out. However the effects of initially downplaying means:

a. it's spread to other countries
b. China citizens are not overly concerned
Li said that starting from late December, the property developer that owned the market asked renters to wear masks to work and avoid going to crowded places. “I’m not worried,” said Li. “My grandchildren all live in Wuhan and we don’t believe it. It’s just rumours.”

Though some are..

“With this huge amount of spring festival travel, why are there not any prevention measures?” one wrote on Weibo. On the Douban forum, another observed that few people at Wuhan train station were wearing masks.

Hopefully this is all mild but with the mass migration within and outside China coming with Chinese New Year.. it's a perfect storm if it's not.

Just seems a little strange that China has had two outbreaks of novel coronaviruses in less than 20 years when this hasn't happened anywhere else on Earth during the same timeframe, not even in Africa or SE Asia with their massive population expansion, endemic population of coronaviruses and still-significant poverty. How on Earth does this happen twice in less than 20 years in China of all places, which by any means is much more developed than any of those nations? If latitude were the explanation the United States would have produced a similar number of novel coronaviruses.

Looks like the Chinese might have been up to something in their biological weapons program that flew the coop a little too early, just like with SARS in 2003. Even more curious that both epidemics are from the same group of viruses, as if that were the ones they were focused on weaponizing.

I believe it's a combination of a densely connected population and something specific to Chinese wet markets, packing a great variety of different animals, dead and alive, together. Want a chicken? They'll grab a live one and kill and cut it up for you on the spot with the same tools they just used to do the same to whatever else.

These areas—often poorly ventilated, with multiple species jammed together—create ideal conditions for spreading disease through shared water utensils or airborne droplets of blood and other secretions. “That provides opportunities for viruses to spread in closely packed quarters, allowing ‘amplification’ of the viruses,” says Benjamin John Cowling, a specialist in medical statistics at the University of Hong Kong School of Public Health. “The risk to humans becomes so much higher.”

In addition, there's a general culture of not sharing any bad news, so even if your family member is coughing blood in the backroom you'd not mention it for fear of impacting business if not just generally causing trouble.

[Oneid]

Alas, Plaque Inc. begins!

This joke is a good, good game.

[Konolas]

Alas, Plaque Inc. begins!

To Greenland we go

[Pangurstan]

China's National Health Commission on Monday confirmed for the first time that the infection could be transmitted from human-to-human. It said two people in Guangdong province had been infected in this way.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51185836
Uh-oh. This is also happening right in time for lunar new year.

[Valentian Elysium]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51194651
So, the virus is now officially in the US
Also, it's extremely unfortunate that the coronavirus is beginning just in time for the Chinese New Year. People will be moving around, so I'd just try and tell everyone that anyone with symptoms resembling that of the coronavirus should immediately go to the hospital, and must travel as least as possible

[The Greater Ohio Valley]

Alas, Plaque Inc. begins!

Hopefully they don't have enough DNA points to evolve much further.

[Genivaria]

This will likely not be something too worry about TOO much now that we know about it, the death to infection ratio seems to be pretty lopsided and only seems to kill people who's immune system is already compromised.

That said anyone who develops flu like systems should get themselves checked.

[Thermodolia]

Alas, Plaque Inc. begins!

To Greenland we go

“Madagascar has closed its borders”

[The Strangers Club]

To Greenland we go

“Madagascar has closed its borders”

Welp, North Korea already closed it's borders so I guess it's game over.

[Vetalia]

I believe it's a combination of a densely connected population and something specific to Chinese wet markets, packing a great variety of different animals, dead and alive, together. Want a chicken? They'll grab a live one and kill and cut it up for you on the spot with the same tools they just used to do the same to whatever else.

These areas—often poorly ventilated, with multiple species jammed together—create ideal conditions for spreading disease through shared water utensils or airborne droplets of blood and other secretions. “That provides opportunities for viruses to spread in closely packed quarters, allowing ‘amplification’ of the viruses,” says Benjamin John Cowling, a specialist in medical statistics at the University of Hong Kong School of Public Health. “The risk to humans becomes so much higher.”

In addition, there's a general culture of not sharing any bad news, so even if your family member is coughing blood in the backroom you'd not mention it for fear of impacting business if not just generally causing trouble.

Live-animal markets are that bad everywhere else in the world, particularly in African cities which are both far more densely populated and much poorer, less sanitary and chaotic than anything in China yet they have never produced a novel coronavirus in that entire time, even one as lethal as this or let alone two of remarkably similar lethality in less than 20 years. Even more so considering the coronaviridae are the most common circulating viruses in every human population so one would expect novel viruses to arise from time to time around the world in various frequencies based on the viral evolution.

I think the Chinese government was working on revising the weaponized version of the coronavirus behind the original SARS outbreak and one of the labs screwed up again in some way, hence the initial coverup and lame admission of the problem after the fact.

Methinks the Chinese Project Blue lost one of the bugs and Campion failed to close the gate.