Novus America wrote:North German Realm wrote:Hm. The only way I can think this could happen where things wouldn't go too off-the-charts is if Prussia fulfilled its promises and convinced Austria not to join a third partitioning (IRL, the Prussian king did the virtual opposite and convinced Austria to join the partitioning). Also, the likelihood of a Polish state existing in the 19th century would be higher if Prussia had argued in favor of its own partition (rather than let Russia have it in exchange for Rhenish territories) which... honestly, it's not likely.
That said, an independent Poland -regardless of its size- would actively change the 19th century. I'm not sure if it'd be for the better, but I can know it wouldn't be a great and/or a regional power regardless. Russia had cemented its position as the regional Great Power about 50 years before even the first partition.
Sure it was not likely given the Russians and Germans were greedy backstabbing bastards but maybe if Austria and Germany had tried to protect and save at least the core of it rather than Germany being obsessed with destroying it (despite it being a faithful ally in the past).
Had they demanded it be preserved Russia probably would have been contented with what it got in the First Partition.
Ironically it appears the Partitions killed the German, Austria Hungarian and Russian Empires in the end.
I mean, it's impossible for Germany to ever return the territory taken in the First Partition (which is most of West Prussia) willingly. They'd sooner spend four years behind trenches. Similarly for 75% of the territory taken in the Second Partition (Danzig in particular. Greater Poland was not quite that useful). It took the most humiliating defeat Prussia as a sovereign state had ever suffered for someone to take it from them. The Third partition of Poland in particular was the greatest mistake anyone in the 18th century Prussia ever made: It opened the way for Russia to have access to Europe. Prussia and Austria (Which was generally reluctant in its participation) should have attacked Russia when the latter invaded Poland in 1795, but given all three were more worried about France than they were about each other, it wouldn't be likely for this to happen. The most likely scenario would be the restoration of Poland in a border roughly close to holding Greater Poland, Lithuania, and possibly some of Courland to be restored to form a barrier between Russia and Europe during the Congress of Vienna.
