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Latin America General : Corona Carnaval

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San Lumen
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Posts: 81228
Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Liberal Democratic Socialists

Postby San Lumen » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:13 pm

Atlantic Federalist Republic wrote:Bolsonaro with 49% of all votes, Lula with 41, 3.84% of all votes have already been counted


calling runoff or possible outright win for Bolsonaro. Polls were off yet again. The industry not longer has any meaning or credibility to me.

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Atlantic Federalist Republic
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Founded: Dec 15, 2021
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Atlantic Federalist Republic » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:15 pm

Rio de Janeiro (Third largest electorate) dominated by Bolsonaro with 50% of the votes
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Atlantic Federalist Republic
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Atlantic Federalist Republic » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:16 pm

I'll take a break, I don't want to be a parrot
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Atlantic Federalist Republic
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Founded: Dec 15, 2021
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Atlantic Federalist Republic » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:31 pm

Bolsonaro now leads in the 3 largest electorates in Brazil.
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Greater Miami Shores 3
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Founded: Jul 24, 2021
Capitalist Paradise

Postby Greater Miami Shores 3 » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:32 pm

Atlantic Federalist Republic wrote:I'll take a break, I don't want to be a parrot

Hold on a second, can Jair Bolsonaro win in the second round?
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Atlantic Federalist Republic
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Founded: Dec 15, 2021
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Atlantic Federalist Republic » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:33 pm

Greater Miami Shores 3 wrote:
Atlantic Federalist Republic wrote:I'll take a break, I don't want to be a parrot

Hold on a second, can Jair Bolsonaro win in the second round?

Yes, in my opinion, he can win even in the first round, he has a 6% advantage over Lula, almost 10% of all votes were counted
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Atlantic Federalist Republic
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Founded: Dec 15, 2021
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Atlantic Federalist Republic » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:36 pm

Atlantic Federalist Republic wrote:
Greater Miami Shores 3 wrote:Hold on a second, can Jair Bolsonaro win in the second round?

Yes, in my opinion, he can win even in the first round, he has a 6% advantage over Lula, almost 10% of all votes were counted

11% of all votes were counted*
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The Jamesian Republic
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Founded: Apr 28, 2020
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The Jamesian Republic » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:39 pm

Greater Miami Shores 3 wrote:
Atlantic Federalist Republic wrote:I'll take a break, I don't want to be a parrot

Hold on a second, can Jair Bolsonaro win in the second round?


I wish that wasn’t the case. I would prefer Ciro Gomes (I would prefer if dropped the Vargas era stuff) but he won’t make it out of the first round.
Last edited by The Jamesian Republic on Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Atlantic Federalist Republic
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Founded: Dec 15, 2021
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Atlantic Federalist Republic » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:40 pm

The Jamesian Republic wrote:
Greater Miami Shores 3 wrote:Hold on a second, can Jair Bolsonaro win in the second round?


I wish that wasn’t the case. I would prefer Ciro Gomes but he won’t make it out of the first round.

Who knew, the polls lied, Simone Tebet is ahead of Ciro, the polls didn't show that...
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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:42 pm

13.2% of the vote is now in, Bolsonaro leads 48-43 with a majority of 709,781
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Atlantic Federalist Republic
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Founded: Dec 15, 2021
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Atlantic Federalist Republic » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:43 pm

Shrillland wrote:13.2% of the vote is now in, Bolsonaro leads 48-43 with a majority of 709,781


In the popular vote he has 7,853,592 votes
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San Lumen
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Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Liberal Democratic Socialists

Postby San Lumen » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:43 pm

Shrillland wrote:13.2% of the vote is now in, Bolsonaro leads 48-43 with a majority of 709,781

I think a runoff is likely at this point if so the next month in Brazil is going to be very very ugly.

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Atlantic Federalist Republic
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Founded: Dec 15, 2021
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Atlantic Federalist Republic » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:44 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shrillland wrote:13.2% of the vote is now in, Bolsonaro leads 48-43 with a majority of 709,781

I think a runoff is likely at this point if so the next month in Brazil is going to be very very ugly.


There are people predicting terrorist attack against Lula lol
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San Lumen
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Posts: 81228
Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Liberal Democratic Socialists

Postby San Lumen » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:46 pm

Atlantic Federalist Republic wrote:
San Lumen wrote:I think a runoff is likely at this point if so the next month in Brazil is going to be very very ugly.


There are people predicting terrorist attack against Lula lol


I would not be shocked. This is why I no longer put any faith in polls.

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Atlantic Federalist Republic
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Founded: Dec 15, 2021
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Atlantic Federalist Republic » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:51 pm

Just an observation, the large urban centers (São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro etc...) are the first to be determined, and then, see the decisive ones, the Northeast region (more aligned with Lula) can decide the elections, but in this In this case, the Northeast is already being very well determined, which could mean that Bolsonaro could finish ahead of Lula, or the opposite could happen, but experts assume that Lula will finish ahead of Bolsonaro, by a minimal amount.
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San Lumen
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Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Liberal Democratic Socialists

Postby San Lumen » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:53 pm

Atlantic Federalist Republic wrote:Just an observation, the large urban centers (São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro etc...) are the first to be determined, and then, see the decisive ones, the Northeast region (more aligned with Lula) can decide the elections, but in this In this case, the Northeast is already being very well determined, which could mean that Bolsonaro could finish ahead of Lula, or the opposite could happen, but experts assume that Lula will finish ahead of Bolsonaro, by a minimal amount.


I think the polls were wrong and Bolsonaro is going to out perform and finish ahead and the runoff will be extremely ugly. I don't want to be right.
Last edited by San Lumen on Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Atlantic Federalist Republic
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Founded: Dec 15, 2021
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Atlantic Federalist Republic » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:54 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Atlantic Federalist Republic wrote:Just an observation, the large urban centers (São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro etc...) are the first to be determined, and then, see the decisive ones, the Northeast region (more aligned with Lula) can decide the elections, but in this In this case, the Northeast is already being very well determined, which could mean that Bolsonaro could finish ahead of Lula, or the opposite could happen, but experts assume that Lula will finish ahead of Bolsonaro, by a minimal amount.


I think the polls were wrong and Bolsonaro is going to out perform and finish ahead and the runoff will be extremely ugly. I don't want to be right.

All we can do is wait, but as I said, that's the experts' word
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San Lumen
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Posts: 81228
Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Liberal Democratic Socialists

Postby San Lumen » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:56 pm

Atlantic Federalist Republic wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
I think the polls were wrong and Bolsonaro is going to out perform and finish ahead and the runoff will be extremely ugly. I don't want to be right.

All we can do is wait, but as I said, that's the experts' word


I do not trust the experts or the polls anymore. At this point I just assume the right is favored or will win at this point and the vote going the other way is an upset.

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Atlantic Federalist Republic
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Founded: Dec 15, 2021
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Atlantic Federalist Republic » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:59 pm

22.41% of all votes have already been counted:

47.88% - Bolsonaro
43.36% - Squid
4.54% - Simone Tebet
3.05% - Ciro Gomes
0.49% - Soraya Thronicke
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San Lumen
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Posts: 81228
Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Liberal Democratic Socialists

Postby San Lumen » Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:59 pm

https://apnews.com/article/elections-ca ... 000142c6c3

In Brazilian Amazon, a 1,000-mile voyage so people can vote

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Atlantic Federalist Republic
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Posts: 1961
Founded: Dec 15, 2021
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Atlantic Federalist Republic » Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:00 pm

San Lumen wrote:https://apnews.com/article/elections-caribbean-voting-brazil-climate-and-environment-dba7da43edfa727894e40f1e34409160?taid=6339d8f6b04223000142c6c3

In Brazilian Amazon, a 1,000-mile voyage so people can vote

Oh, yes, that's cool, in these elections, we have a new model of electronic voting machines, a more powerful and much better model for the disabled.
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Atlantic Federalist Republic
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Founded: Dec 15, 2021
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Atlantic Federalist Republic » Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:06 pm

Lula returned to lead the second largest Brazilian electorate (Minas Gerais) with 45.91%
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San Lumen
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Posts: 81228
Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Liberal Democratic Socialists

Postby San Lumen » Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:08 pm

Atlantic Federalist Republic wrote:Lula returned to lead the second largest Brazilian electorate (Minas Gerais) with 45.91%


I read it has voted for the winner of every election since the restoration of democracy.

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Atlantic Federalist Republic
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Founded: Dec 15, 2021
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Atlantic Federalist Republic » Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:09 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Atlantic Federalist Republic wrote:Lula returned to lead the second largest Brazilian electorate (Minas Gerais) with 45.91%


I read it has voted for the winner of every election since the restoration of democracy.

What?
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San Lumen
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Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Liberal Democratic Socialists

Postby San Lumen » Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:12 pm

Atlantic Federalist Republic wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
I read it has voted for the winner of every election since the restoration of democracy.

What?


I looked at the result by province on Wikipedia and its never voted for a losing candidate for President. It is the bellwether state.

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