Latin America General : Corona Carnaval

[Gardevoirian Patriarchy]

The fact that Bolsonaro seems to be a competent politician makes better than more than half of latin Americans politicians. And thats what normal, politically-exhausted people just want at minimum.
I, for one, welcome the new Brazilian Empire with open arms

[Atlantic Federalist Republic]

The fact that Bolsonaro seems to be a competent politician makes better than more than half of latin Americans politicians. And thats what normal, politically-exhausted people just want at minimum.
I, for one, welcome the new Brazilian Empire with open arms

The worst that the Empire of Brazil was not bad, but unfortunately Brazil preferred to become an unstable Latin American republic like the others.

[San Lumen]

Lula will almost certainly win. And then proceed to change fairly little. The rainforests will continue to gradually be destroyed, crime and poverty will remain serious problems, political corruption won't go anywhere, etc. At best, poverty might have a band-aid slapped on it.

I believe that polls are manipulated, never forget the 2018 polls, and the worst thing is that Datafolha, the already declared enemy of Bolsonaro, is responsible for these polls, not to mention that in the Lula era he bribed the entire parliament and the main broadcasters in the country, including Globo/Datafolha.

Ah yes the old polls are biased argument. you are aware polling is a business? If they make up numbers or manipulate them it hurts their credibility.

The rest of your argument is completely unsourced therefore I will discount it.

[Atlantic Federalist Republic]

I believe that polls are manipulated, never forget the 2018 polls, and the worst thing is that Datafolha, the already declared enemy of Bolsonaro, is responsible for these polls, not to mention that in the Lula era he bribed the entire parliament and the main broadcasters in the country, including Globo/Datafolha.

Ah yes the old polls are biased argument. you are aware polling is a business? If they make up numbers or manipulate them it hurts their credibility.

The rest of your argument is completely unsourced therefore I will discount it.

You talk like it's easy to guess whether or not you're manipulated, or maybe I forgot that you must think they talk when they manipulate. Honestly, you are totally blind.

[San Lumen]

Ah yes the old polls are biased argument. you are aware polling is a business? If they make up numbers or manipulate them it hurts their credibility.

The rest of your argument is completely unsourced therefore I will discount it.

You talk like it's easy to guess whether or not you're manipulated, or maybe I forgot that you must think they talk when they manipulate. Honestly, you are totally blind.

I have no idea what your trying to say here.

[Atlantic Federalist Republic]

You talk like it's easy to guess whether or not you're manipulated, or maybe I forgot that you must think they talk when they manipulate. Honestly, you are totally blind.

I have no idea what your trying to say here.

I don't know if you're being truthful, but I'll keep it simple:

Do you think broadcasters talk when they manipulate polls?

[Ayytaly]

Last few days have been intense. Mexico struck by a 7.6 earthquake, the Caribbean getting Maria'd again, Argentina with fires and yet another IMF bailout, etc.

[Shrillland]

We're now only a week away from the big vote in Brazil, and the reason I haven't said much else about it is because it's nearly a forgone conclusion that Lula's coming back, and possibly in the first round. Whether he can save the rainforest in time remains to be seen.

[Atlantic Federalist Republic]

We're now only a week away from the big vote in Brazil, and the reason I haven't said much else about it is because it's nearly a forgone conclusion that Lula's coming back, and possibly in the first round. Whether he can save the rainforest in time remains to be seen.

Lula will not be elected, I have a firm conviction in that, despite the polls (not very reliable) show the opposite

The streets already say that, Lula's rallies depend on Photoshop and invasion of other protests to fill, while Bolsonaro's, dragged more than 4 million to Brasilia on independence day

[Shrillland]

We're now only a week away from the big vote in Brazil, and the reason I haven't said much else about it is because it's nearly a forgone conclusion that Lula's coming back, and possibly in the first round. Whether he can save the rainforest in time remains to be seen.

Lula will not be elected, I have a firm conviction in that, despite the polls (not very reliable) show the opposite

The streets already say that, Lula's rallies depend on Photoshop and invasion of other protests to fill, while Bolsonaro's, dragged more than 4 million to Brasilia on independence day

I've looked at the last several elections worth of polling, and though they do tend to get the numbers off(sometimes by as much as 10 points in '18), they mostly get it right. In 2014, they were almost on the nose as to what the First Round results were.

[Atlantic Federalist Republic]

Lula will not be elected, I have a firm conviction in that, despite the polls (not very reliable) show the opposite

The streets already say that, Lula's rallies depend on Photoshop and invasion of other protests to fill, while Bolsonaro's, dragged more than 4 million to Brasilia on independence day

I've looked at the last several elections worth of polling, and though they do tend to get the numbers off(sometimes by as much as 10 points in '18), they mostly get it right. In 2014, they were almost on the nose as to what the First Round results were.

I rely mainly on the 2016 US election polls, and I have no doubt that this can happen to Brazil.

[Shrillland]

I've looked at the last several elections worth of polling, and though they do tend to get the numbers off(sometimes by as much as 10 points in '18), they mostly get it right. In 2014, they were almost on the nose as to what the First Round results were.

I rely mainly on the 2016 US election polls, and I have no doubt that this can happen to Brazil.

Ah, well those polls weren't as off as a lot of people think, either. They did more or less get the national popular vote right and were within the margin of error in most of the contested states with only Wisconsin being significantly off. But enough about the US...

[Atlantic Federalist Republic]

I rely mainly on the 2016 US election polls, and I have no doubt that this can happen to Brazil.

Ah, well those polls weren't as off as a lot of people think, either. They did more or less get the national popular vote right and were within the margin of error in most of the contested states with only Wisconsin being significantly off. But enough about the US...

Surveys in Brazil are carried out only with the poorest strata, and consequently, the poorest strata in Brazil are in favor of Lula, most of them, not all, but many are only in favor of Lula because of the Bolsa Familia (Auxilio income) that was not created by Lula... Lula doesn't even have a government plan, he sells the idea that his entry will work miracles, and his government was not efficient as in other countries similar to Brazil among the years 2008-2016

[Uiiop]

Ah, well those polls weren't as off as a lot of people think, either. They did more or less get the national popular vote right and were within the margin of error in most of the contested states with only Wisconsin being significantly off. But enough about the US...

Surveys in Brazil are carried out only with the poorest strata, and consequently, the poorest strata in Brazil are in favor of Lula, most of them, not all, but many are only in favor of Lula because of the Bolsa Familia (Auxilio income) that was not created by Lula... Lula doesn't even have a government plan, he sells the idea that his entry will work miracles, and his government was not efficient as in other countries similar to Brazil among the years 2008-2016

Unsourced assertions on polling leave me uimpressed even when shrilland does it for claims i agree with.

That being said "One poll was bad therefore all polls bad" kinda really isn't good enough logic for an null assumption. patterns are made with one sample.

[Atlantic Federalist Republic]

Surveys in Brazil are carried out only with the poorest strata, and consequently, the poorest strata in Brazil are in favor of Lula, most of them, not all, but many are only in favor of Lula because of the Bolsa Familia (Auxilio income) that was not created by Lula... Lula doesn't even have a government plan, he sells the idea that his entry will work miracles, and his government was not efficient as in other countries similar to Brazil among the years 2008-2016

Unsourced assertions on polling leave me uimpressed even when shrilland does it for claims i agree with.

That being said "One poll was bad therefore all polls bad" kinda really isn't good enough logic for an null assumption. patterns are made with one sample.

Yes, I agree, but I don't think they are all representing the reality on the streets around here.

[Uiiop]

Unsourced assertions on polling leave me uimpressed even when shrilland does it for claims i agree with.

That being said "One poll was bad therefore all polls bad" kinda really isn't good enough logic for an null assumption. patterns are made with one sample.

Yes, I agree, but I don't think they are all representing the reality on the streets around here.

Your streets aren't the only or even necessarily dominant ones in the region. Personal vibes (which i assume is) based in something real isn't really strong enough by itself to generalize.

[Atlantic Federalist Republic]

Yes, I agree, but I don't think they are all representing the reality on the streets around here.

Your streets aren't the only or even necessarily dominant ones in the region. Personal vibes (which i assume is) based in something real isn't really strong enough by itself to generalize.

'My streets' can also be found in the news in several states, unfortunately, Brazil is polarized, we are practically forced to vote for only two of the various candidates, Lula or Bolsonaro, those who really want to do something good for Brazil don't get chances .

[Atlantic Federalist Republic]

Well, the big day is tomorrow, the first round in Brazil will be tomorrow, and everyone can follow the total number of votes through the official website of the Electoral Court of Brazil (https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/a ... resultados) in portuguese

For sure this will not end in the first round, unfortunately, I am forced to vote, just like everyone over 18, and under 70 too. I hate democracies that don't let their citizens not vote.

[Shrillland]

Well, the big day is tomorrow, the first round in Brazil will be tomorrow, and everyone can follow the total number of votes through the official website of the Electoral Court of Brazil (https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/a ... resultados) in portuguese

For sure this will not end in the first round, unfortunately, I am forced to vote, just like everyone over 18, and under 70 too. I hate democracies that don't let their citizens not vote.

Is there at least a blanco option you could take? I'm not a fan of mandatory voting myself, but it's slightly less bitter if an abstention's there.

[Shrillland]

Polls are now closed and the first results are coming in...

[San Lumen]

Polls are now closed and the first results are coming in...

very early returns look bad for Lula but it's way too early to make any predictions

[Atlantic Federalist Republic]

Well, the big day is tomorrow, the first round in Brazil will be tomorrow, and everyone can follow the total number of votes through the official website of the Electoral Court of Brazil (https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/a ... resultados) in portuguese

For sure this will not end in the first round, unfortunately, I am forced to vote, just like everyone over 18, and under 70 too. I hate democracies that don't let their citizens not vote.

Is there at least a blanco option you could take? I'm not a fan of mandatory voting myself, but it's slightly less bitter if an abstention's there.

Yes, we have, by the way, I already voted for my candidate, I won't reveal it. But it starts with C

But, there are rumors that, anyway, the null/white vote will go to one of the candidates, I emphasize, RUMORS

[Atlantic Federalist Republic]

Right now, Bolsonaro is ahead, with 48% of the votes.

[San Lumen]

Right now, Bolsonaro is ahead, with 48% of the votes.

I don't think Lula is going to win outright sadly. Bolsonaro seems to be over performing.

[Atlantic Federalist Republic]

Right now, Bolsonaro is ahead, with 48% of the votes.

I don't think Lula is going to win outright sadly. Bolsonaro seems to be over performing.

It is worth mentioning that it is only 1.24% of all votes. Counting started at 5 pm (Brasilia time)