NationStates

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:57 am**

So there was no actual anti-Brexit party then by that definition.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:59 am**

Vassenor wrote:So there was no actual anti-Brexit party then by that definition.

I give up. The sheer idiocy of this argument is impossible to debate. Don't expect me to reply to any further one-sentence nonsense you might choose to come up with.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:59 am**

Vassenor wrote:So there was no actual anti-Brexit party then by that definition.

Lib Dems, SNP, SDLP, Sinn Fein, Alliance, Greens, Plaid Cymru (?)

But not Labour.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:01 am**

The Archregimancy wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:
My claim is specifically that a narrow majority voted against Brexit. I'm specifically claiming that Labour voters don't want to leave, and voted for them to block the Tories. (And I skipped PC/SDLP/SF because I just added parties in until I got over 50%).

Then you're wrong.

Labour's ambiguous Brexit policy was deliberately designed to avoid alienating either Leavers or Remainers; we therefore should not assume that all 10,292,354 Labour voters 'didn't want to leave'.

It's certainly likely that a good majority of Labour voters would have supported Remain in a second referendum; but by no means all of them. So you're making the statistical error of assuming a majority should be taken as representing the totality of a data set when combining that data set with others.

And again, Labour was not an anti-Brexit party - only a pro-second referendum party.

No, I'm merely saying that you can't assume the contrary. And also that they're probably approximately balanced out by Tory voters who don't want to leave.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:05 am**

Salandriagado wrote:
The Archregimancy wrote:
Then you're wrong.

Labour's ambiguous Brexit policy was deliberately designed to avoid alienating either Leavers or Remainers; we therefore should not assume that all 10,292,354 Labour voters 'didn't want to leave'.

It's certainly likely that a good majority of Labour voters would have supported Remain in a second referendum; but by no means all of them. So you're making the statistical error of assuming a majority should be taken as representing the totality of a data set when combining that data set with others.

And again, Labour was not an anti-Brexit party - only a pro-second referendum party.

No, I'm merely saying that you can't assume the contrary. And also that they're probably approximately balanced out by Tory voters who don't want to leave.

Why would someone vote Tory and not want to leave? Wouldn't the Lib Dems be more to their liking? :unsure:

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:10 am**

The Blaatschapen wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:
No, I'm merely saying that you can't assume the contrary. And also that they're probably approximately balanced out by Tory voters who don't want to leave.

Why would someone vote Tory and not want to leave? Wouldn't the Lib Dems be more to their liking?

Social conservatives, tribal Tory voters, etc.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:12 am**

Unsurprisingly, Corbyn's gone.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:13 am**

I long for the good old days when nobody would speak out against Labour because if they did Alastair Campbell would break into their house in the dead of night and garrote them.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:14 am**

So what do we make of what happened in Kensington?

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:14 am**

Salandriagado wrote:Unsurprisingly, Corbyn's gone.

No, he's going to resign, he hasn't resigned yet.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:14 am**

Salandriagado wrote:Unsurprisingly, Corbyn's gone.

He isn't gone yet. Just said that he won't lead Labour into the next election. He's still leader.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:15 am**

Salandriagado wrote:Unsurprisingly, Corbyn's gone.

Word is he won't be out until April though, which certainly won't help Labour's hopes for the council elections in May.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:16 am**

Fartsniffage wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:Unsurprisingly, Corbyn's gone.

He isn't gone yet. Just said that he won't lead Labour into the next election. He's still leader.

And apparently its problematic that hes waiting for a replacement to be chosen rather than pulling the rug out from under the party.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:16 am**

Vassenor wrote:So what do we make of what happened in Kensington?

Labour or the Lib Dems should have stood down, like in a lot of places.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:17 am**

Fartsniffage wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:Unsurprisingly, Corbyn's gone.

He isn't gone yet. Just said that he won't lead Labour into the next election. He's still leader.

Ehh, it's functionally the same. It's not like he's got enough of a presence in the Commons to do anything much this side of an election.

Swinson resigned properly, though.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:17 am**

Salandriagado wrote:
The Blaatschapen wrote:
Why would someone vote Tory and not want to leave? Wouldn't the Lib Dems be more to their liking?

Social conservatives, tribal Tory voters, etc.

Sure, but they knew what they are voting for. The Tory manifesto isn't particularly hard to read even for the most ardent Tribalist pro-Euro Tory.

Labours was far more convoluted with plenty of mixed messages...especially when they started sending the eurosceptic Labour MPs "op Norf" to canvas.

Lib Dems did it too - came out with a strong message, then saw how the tide was against them and tried to soften.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:18 am**

Fartsniffage wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:Unsurprisingly, Corbyn's gone.

He isn't gone yet. Just said that he won't lead Labour into the next election. He's still leader.

Dead man walking.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:18 am**

Vassenor wrote:
Fartsniffage wrote:
He isn't gone yet. Just said that he won't lead Labour into the next election. He's still leader.

And apparently its problematic that hes waiting for a replacement to be chosen rather than pulling the rug out from under the party.

Yes, it is. Because he'll still be the ineffective leader he's been thus far through us leaving the EU in January. He should get out of the way.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:18 am**

Salandriagado wrote:Unsurprisingly, Corbyn's gone.

Jeremy Corbyn was honestly a terrible leader for Labour. This is the price Labour pays for failing to remove him in past contested leadership election in 2016. But I can't say we should be surprised by the results: polls have shown the Conservatives leading bigly.

Regardless now, the EU next year will have one less member, and likely I think we'll see a hard exit.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:20 am**

Vassenor wrote:
Fartsniffage wrote:
He isn't gone yet. Just said that he won't lead Labour into the next election. He's still leader.

And apparently its problematic that hes waiting for a replacement to be chosen rather than pulling the rug out from under the party.

Better to pull the plaster off now whilst the election hurts rather than keep gently pulling and tugging and extending the pain.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:23 am**

The Blaatschapen wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:
No, I'm merely saying that you can't assume the contrary. And also that they're probably approximately balanced out by Tory voters who don't want to leave.

Why would someone vote Tory and not want to leave? Wouldn't the Lib Dems be more to their liking?

Tory Remainers are more likely to be ones who "just want Brexit done", even if they didn't vote for it.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:23 am**

Zurkerx wrote:Regardless now, the EU next year will have one less member, and likely I think we'll see a hard exit.

The big Tory majority makes no deal less likely, not more.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:28 am**

Fartsniffage wrote:
Vassenor wrote:
And apparently its problematic that hes waiting for a replacement to be chosen rather than pulling the rug out from under the party.

Yes, it is. Because he'll still be the ineffective leader he's been thus far through us leaving the EU in January. He should get out of the way.

This. The sooner he's out, the sooner Labour can move forward from this debacle.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:31 am**

The New California Republic wrote:
Zurkerx wrote:Regardless now, the EU next year will have one less member, and likely I think we'll see a hard exit.

The big Tory majority makes no deal less likely, not more.

Yup. Boris's deal it is with all its faults.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:31 am**

Vassenor wrote:So what do we make of what happened in Kensington?

That the idea of blocking Tories at any cost and trusting a website to help was a dangerous one that backfired.

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UK Politics Thread XI: Boris' Big Bombastic Brexit Bash