UK Politics Thread XI: Boris' Big Bombastic Brexit Bash

[Hirota]

I don't think that Labour's cure is as simple as waiting for the Conservatives to implode. I mean that will help, yes, but Labour only won 203 seats. That's their worst showing since 1935. You can't brush that aside, blame the media, Brexit, or Jews (as Ken Livingstone did). You have to come to terms with the fact that Corbyn's brand of Labour politics was utterly wiped out and rejected, by a large portion of their supposed base.

I understand self-reflection isn't a skill common amongst radicals, but this proves that Corbyn's direction did not resonate. And so, to successfully rebuild Labour, you can't just be about "we're not the Tories." You actually have to fix what the populace found off-putting about your politics.
Modelling the party on Blair's New Labour isn't the worse thing in the world, when you consider how far reaching and successful New Labour was. It wasn't hardcore socialism, but it wrestled the country away from the Tories and it progressed the UK as a nation across a number of areas.

If Labour wants to improve for the next election, they have to become credible to the electorate (and especially the working class) again. I don't see how doubling down on Corbynism and the sneering elitist identitiarism of Momentum will accomplish that, as much as I kinda like the guy himself.

Note that I said improve for the next election. This is probably a 2 or 3 election project of rebuilding credibility before expecting Labour to lead again...barring the Brexit wildcard having another unexpected effect, which is probably more likely than not, but you can't bank on something crazy to happen with Brexit and it landing in your favour, it's not a viable strategy to come back into power.

[An Alan Smithee Nation]

I forgot to add the Brexit Party not winning a seat to my list of bright spots.

[The Archregimancy]

Does anyone know what's holding up the St Ives declaration?

Is it insanely close, or is it an issue with flying over the votes from the Isles of Scilly? Or perhaps both?

[Hirota]

Does anyone know what's holding up the St Ives declaration?

Is it insanely close, or is it an issue with flying over the votes from the Isles of Scilly? Or perhaps both?

Bad weather: https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/elect ... ly-3640195

Should be done this afternoon: https://twitter.com/CornwallCouncil/sta ... 5418689537

[The Archregimancy]

Does anyone know what's holding up the St Ives declaration?

Is it insanely close, or is it an issue with flying over the votes from the Isles of Scilly? Or perhaps both?

Bad weather: https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/elect ... ly-3640195

So 'an issue with flying over the votes from the Isles of Scilly' - due to bad weather.

[Prydania]

What's your proof that was the cause of Labour's wipe-out?
I mean it. This is, essentially, the political version of the Big Foot debate. It falls on the person making the extraordinary claim to provide evidence. And the idea that Corbyn's version of Labour is still electorally viable after a historic wipe-out like this? That's the extraordinary claim here.

You don't get to suffer one of the most lopsided electoral defeats in British history and claim that it's patently obvious your side totally has the more popular platform.

So in lieu of providing evidence to prove yourself right, you demand that I prove you wrong?

Also don't shove words into my mouth - I didn't say it was the more popular platform. Just that it's not as massively unpopular as you're insinuating.

I'm insinuating that the platform is as popular as a -43 seat drop and the worse showing electorally since before WWII could possibly be. You say I'm insinuating it's worse than it is. No, I'm insinuating that it's as bad as it is. Which is historically bad.

And yes, I demand you prove me wrong. Or prove yourself right. Labour suffered a crushing defeat under the direction of Corbyn and his people.
It's on you to provide proof that Corbyn's direction was not as unpopular as the results show. Or to say it another way? The Sagan standard.
"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."

The idea that Corbyn's direction for Labour is popular is certainly an extraordinary claim in light of these results.

[Vassenor]

So in lieu of providing evidence to prove yourself right, you demand that I prove you wrong?

Also don't shove words into my mouth - I didn't say it was the more popular platform. Just that it's not as massively unpopular as you're insinuating.

I'm insinuating that the platform is as popular as a -43 seat drop and the worse showing electorally since before WWII could possibly be. You say I'm insinuating it's worse than it is. No, I'm insinuating that it's as bad as it is. Which is historically bad.

And yes, I demand you prove me wrong. Or prove yourself right. Labour suffered a crushing defeat under the direction of Corbyn and his people.
It's on you to provide proof that Corbyn's direction was not as unpopular as the results show. Or to say it another way? The Sagan standard.
"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."

The idea that Corbyn's direction for Labour is popular is certainly an extraordinary claim in light of these results.

You're claiming that it could only be the result of the direction but you won't prove it was the result of the direction.

[Prydania]

You're claiming that it could only be the result of the direction but you won't prove it was the result of the direction.

I'm claiming a platform that was wiped out across the country, even in its Party's traditional heartland, isn't popular amongst the electorate. That's not an extraordinary claim on my part.

[Vassenor]

You're claiming that it could only be the result of the direction but you won't prove it was the result of the direction.

I'm claiming a platform that was wiped out across the country, even in its Party's traditional heartland, isn't popular amongst the electorate. That's not an extraordinary claim on my part.

And assertions on their own are not evidence.

And saying that if they'd gone Blairite this wouldn't have happened is a pretty extraordinary claim.

[Prydania]

And assertions on their own are not evidence.

Nope, but at least I'm not arguing against the tangible results of the election.

And saying that if they'd gone Blairite this wouldn't have happened is a pretty extraordinary claim.

I think both Blair's electoral track record as Labour Party leader and Corbyn's electoral track record as Labour Party leader speak for themselves.

[Vassenor]

And assertions on their own are not evidence.

Nope, but at least I'm not arguing against the tangible results of the election.

And saying that if they'd gone Blairite this wouldn't have happened is a pretty extraordinary claim.

I think both Blair's electoral track record as Labour Party leader and Corbyn's electoral track record as Labour Party leader speak for themselves.

No, you're just refusing to actually show that the results prove what you say they do.

So what about the direction made it as massively unpopular as you claim it was?

[Prydania]

No, you're just refusing to actually show that the results prove what you say they do.

You're the one claiming a party platform that was thoroughly rejected by the electorate is actually popular. The best indication we have of a platform's popularity is the election itself. Which shows us that Labour's platform under Corbyn was wildly unpopular. That's tangible. That's dealing with hard data.

You are asserting that it's actually a popular platform despite the election. You have yet to provide any evidence to counter the election results' indication that your assertion is incorrect.

[Vassenor]

No, you're just refusing to actually show that the results prove what you say they do.

You're the one claiming a party platform that was thoroughly rejected by the electorate is actually popular. The best indication we have of a platform's popularity is the election itself. Which shows us that Labour's platform under Corbyn was wildly unpopular. That's tangible. That's dealing with hard data.

You are asserting that it's actually a popular platform despite the election. You have yet to provide any evidence to counter the election results' indication that your assertion is incorrect.

U.K. voters want Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘radical’ change. They’re not sure they want him.

Labour economic policies are popular, so why aren’t Labour?

[Alvecia]

Urgh

[Salandriagado]

OK, overnight change analysis:

1. Things are a lot less bad than we were expecting for Labour. Still a disaster, but not as much of one.
2. This is the single biggest error in an exit poll since they started the new methodology, and by a long way.
3. Overall, this looks like the degree to which the Tories benefit from FPTP has reduced significantly: Labour's losses in their heartlands were larger than elsewhere, so the results are going closer to being something reasonable. Still a long way off (looks like the Lib Dems are taking over the "most dicked over by FPTP" title), but less ridiculous.
4. We can get back to making the jokes about Tory MPs and giant pandas in Scotland, but with Labour this time.

[The Blaatschapen]

Urgh

Good morning Alvecia.

[Crysuko]

OK, overnight change analysis:

1. Things are a lot less bad than we were expecting for Labour. Still a disaster, but not as much of one.
2. This is the single biggest error in an exit poll since they started the new methodology, and by a long way.
3. Overall, this looks like the degree to which the Tories benefit from FPTP has reduced significantly: Labour's losses in their heartlands were larger than elsewhere, so the results are going closer to being something reasonable. Still a long way off (looks like the Lib Dems are taking over the "most dicked over by FPTP" title), but less ridiculous.
4. We can get back to making the jokes about Tory MPs and giant pandas in Scotland, but with Labour this time.

Next time, I tell you. Next time!

[Alvecia]

Urgh

Good morning Alvecia.

It is certainly a morning. I wouldn’t call it in any way good.

[Alvecia]

Labour kept my consitiluency, but it’s an awfully safe seat. Kate Green has been the MP here since I think I started voting.

[The Archregimancy]

Perhaps, Vassenor, it might help raise the level of debate if you were to tell us why you think Labour suffered their worst loss since before the Second World War last night.

Clearly you don't think it was Labour's policies; so presumably you think it must have been something else?

Given that you were recently complaining about the lack of considered post-mortems in this thread, I would have thought you would welcome the opportunity to share your own analysis.

I look forward to reading your detailed thoughts on this important issue.

[Chan Island]

Knocked on a lot of doors in the election for Labour. Disappointing result but the big one in my opinion was Corbyn. People in marginals kept saying they loved any individual policies I brought up, but then said they couldn’t bring themselves to vote Corbyn.

One in particular sticks to mind. Voter in Dagenham said they couldn’t vote for Corbyn. I pointed out that in Dagenham the candidate was Jon Cruddas. Voter then absolutely sang Jon’s praises as a wonderful MP.... and that they were looking forward to voting for Jon again as soon as Corbyn is gone.

That same person, as well as many others, liked Lab’s ideas on the NHS, the economy and many local candidates ran with excellent local issues. But Corbs, Brexit (in that voters didn’t know what to support... funnily enough a point more remainers than leavers brought up) and anti-semitism really clinched it.... so Corbyn again.

Oh well. Everyone who had ever met him in person sang his praises. But he’s got to go, we need a young, fresh face without lots of pictures next to Gerry Adams.

[Vassenor]

Perhaps, Vassenor, it might help raise the level of debate if you were to tell us why you think Labour suffered their worst loss since before the Second World War last night.

Clearly you don't think it was Labour's policies; so presumably you think it must have been something else?

Given that you were recently complaining about the lack of considered post-mortems in this thread, I would have thought you would welcome the opportunity to share your own analysis.

I look forward to reading your detailed thoughts on this important issue.

I wasn't complaining that there were none. I was asking if we had enough information to be doing them yet because I'd literally just woken up.

[The Archregimancy]

Knocked on a lot of doors in the election for Labour. Disappointing result but the big one in my opinion was Corbyn. People in marginals kept saying they loved any individual policies I brought up, but then said they couldn’t bring themselves to vote Corbyn.

One in particular sticks to mind. Voter in Dagenham said they couldn’t vote for Corbyn. I pointed out that in Dagenham the candidate was Jon Cruddas. Voter then absolutely sang Jon’s praises as a wonderful MP.... and that they were looking forward to voting for Jon again as soon as Corbyn is gone.

That same person, as well as many others, liked Lab’s ideas on the NHS, the economy and many local candidates ran with excellent local issues. But Corbs, Brexit (in that voters didn’t know what to support... funnily enough a point more remainers than leavers brought up) and anti-semitism really clinched it.... so Corbyn again.

Oh well. Everyone who had ever met him in person sang his praises. But he’s got to go, we need a young, fresh face without lots of pictures next to Gerry Adams.

I think many of us would welcome that. It would be a start; I don't vote Labour, obviously, but our country needs a well-led effective main opposition party.

But given that Corbyn apparently can't even resign properly without giving the impression of ineffective dawdling, you might have a long path ahead.

[The Archregimancy]

Perhaps, Vassenor, it might help raise the level of debate if you were to tell us why you think Labour suffered their worst loss since before the Second World War last night.

Clearly you don't think it was Labour's policies; so presumably you think it must have been something else?

Given that you were recently complaining about the lack of considered post-mortems in this thread, I would have thought you would welcome the opportunity to share your own analysis.

I look forward to reading your detailed thoughts on this important issue.

I wasn't complaining that there were none. I was asking if we had enough information to be doing them yet because I'd literally just woken up.

As I said, I look forward to reading your detailed thoughts on this important issue.

[Hirota]

You're the one claiming a party platform that was thoroughly rejected by the electorate is actually popular. The best indication we have of a platform's popularity is the election itself. Which shows us that Labour's platform under Corbyn was wildly unpopular. That's tangible. That's dealing with hard data.

You are asserting that it's actually a popular platform despite the election. You have yet to provide any evidence to counter the election results' indication that your assertion is incorrect.

U.K. voters want Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘radical’ change. They’re not sure they want him.

Labour economic policies are popular, so why aren’t Labour?

The yougov one is good. Not much to disagree with there. Labours policies do get a lot of support, and I can see a lot of good in them - even though I voted Tory this time round.

But it's not quite as simple as being supported.

So how is Labour is performing so badly if its policies are so popular?

There are many possible reasons. One is that while people like the pledges they also don’t think they are realistic: 53% of Britons brand Labour’s policy platform “not affordable”.

Alternatively, Britons aren’t willing to pay for them. Two thirds of Britons believe that Labour pledges would require tax rises, with a separate question finding just 34% of people support increasing the basic rate of income tax.

There is also the broader case of the low confidence Britons have in Labour’s economic management. More than half (57%) of people think the country will go into economic recession within a couple of years if Labour win the election. Likewise, people are more likely to trust Boris Johnson (34%) with the economy than Jeremy Corbyn (16%).

You gov then goes on to report how unlikable Corbyn is in most areas compared to the almost as dislikable Johnson, nothing new there.

So yeah, people like free stuff like Labour policies were outlining, but they just don't believe the policies were practical. Labour could have promised free Unicorns for everyone and the policy would probably be popular, until the electorate started trying to work out how Labour was going to create Unicorns.

It goes to show a policy needs to be considered both desirable and probable to have any traction. It does a lot to dispel the often repeated myth from elitist sneering pricks like Steve Coogan and Hugh Grant that the electorate are idiots.