UK Politics Thread XI: Boris' Big Bombastic Brexit Bash

by **The Archregimancy** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 7:56 am

The Blaatschapen wrote:https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50261647

It's bluff. Farage knows that if he splits the right wing leave vote among all constituencies, that it will be Labour and Lib Dems winning. And that will mean even less of his envisioned Brexit.

It's also likely a lie.

The Brexit Party candidate for my home constituency has already stepped aside and announced that he'll actively campaign for the strongly pro-Brexit sitting Conservative Party MP.

So either Farage is lying, or they'll have to reverse the local candidate's decision to stand down.

by **Vassenor** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 7:57 am

The Archregimancy wrote:
The Blaatschapen wrote:https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50261647

It's bluff. Farage knows that if he splits the right wing leave vote among all constituencies, that it will be Labour and Lib Dems winning. And that will mean even less of his envisioned Brexit.

It's also likely a lie.

The Brexit Party candidate for my home constituency has already stepped aside and announced that he'll actively campaign for the strongly pro-Brexit sitting Conservative Party MP.

So either Farage is lying, or they'll have to reverse the local candidate's decision to stand down.

Or Farage is so divorced from reality he has no idea what his party is doing, or the party itself is so badly managed they have no idea what anyone under it is doing.

by **The Huskar Social Union** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 8:18 am

Gona do a breakdown on NI's constituencies to give a general idea of how they stand also to point out the seats that could possibly flip ownership. Thought it might interest some people to get an idea how the place stands overall.

It will also give me something to do

by **Hurdergaryp** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 8:59 am

The Huskar Social Union wrote:Gona do a breakdown on NI's constituencies to give a general idea of how they stand also to point out the seats that could possibly flip ownership. Thought it might interest some people to get an idea how the place stands overall.

It will also give me something to do

You could also watch this: a true and terrifying story.

by **Gormwood** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:09 am

Ifreann wrote:
The Blaatschapen wrote:https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50261647

It's bluff. Farage knows that if he splits the right wing leave vote among all constituencies, that it will be Labour and Lib Dems winning. And that will mean even less of his envisioned Brexit.

"A vote for Farage risks letting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street via the back door."
Jeremy Corbyn, lurking in the bushes behind Number Ten, waiting for someone be distracted by Farage while opening the door to let Larry out, giving him the chance to sprint in and claim squatter's rights.

Now we need a photo of Corbyn's head on Gollum's body.

by **The Huskar Social Union** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:13 am

Hurdergaryp wrote:
The Huskar Social Union wrote:Gona do a breakdown on NI's constituencies to give a general idea of how they stand also to point out the seats that could possibly flip ownership. Thought it might interest some people to get an idea how the place stands overall.

It will also give me something to do

You could also watch this: a true and terrifying story.

Amazing.

by **The Huskar Social Union** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:48 am

2017 OVERALL RESULTS:

DUP: 10
SF: 7
IND: 1

I will only be including the top three/four parties/candidates in each area because frankly... no one else below those three positions is gona come close. I was gona put vote numbers in as well but it was getting a bit jumbled so just went with majority vote for each constituency.

Probably didnt need to do this but fuck it i was bored.

So despite my hopes that the DUP will take an utter fucking thrashing this election, i'd say realistically most seats are gona stay with the party that currently holds them, however i do think there are a few that could possibly flip over to someone else.

The Big one and the most likely imo is North Belfast. Sinn Fein really narrowed the gap in the last election (following an increasingly steady gain over the last few elections) here and saw a huge surge of support narrowing the DUP majority to around 2000 votes. I honestly believe they could stand to take it, and if they do it will be the first Nationalist MP for North Belfast which would be a huge.

Next up is Foyle. Currently held by Sinn Fein but they are basically neck and neck with the SDLP over this one despite a strong surge in support of over 8 points last election, and what could swing it into the SDLP's corner is that Column Eastwood, the leader of the SDLP is running here, and SF lost some of the more conservative voters up here due to their stance on Abortion, which is gona involve a new Nationalist Party called Aontu, to run in the next election which might be enough to swing it by splitting the SF vote here. The SDLP also did well here in the last local elections, tying with Sinn Fein with 11 seats each.

After that we then have South Belfast. The DUP took this seat from the SDLP in the last election, however there is a possibility that either the Alliance party or SDLP might take it from them. Both their candidates are quite well liked down there, and since South Belfast voted heavily for Remain in the brexit referendum, and this election is essentially the brexit referendum, this could possibly swing things in either of their favour. The UUP refusing to form a pact with the DUP could potentially split their vote a bit too though doubtful.

A few other seats that could possibly deserve some watch are:

North Down. If Sylvia Hermon doesnt run here in this election this seat will easily go to the DUP in my opinion, they have been nipping at her heels for a bit now so if she goes they will take it. However if she stays and runs again, she could probably keep it as she is really well liked over there and has won back to back against the DUP.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone. This one is very close between the UUP and Sinn Fein, with the latter having a majority of only around 875, so it might possibly flip back to the UUP but im unsure. I think Sinn Fein could hold it.

East Belfast. Im honestly unsure about this one myself, the Alliance party took it from the DUP before in 2010 and unseated Peter Robinson tho lost it again in 2015 and its a heavy unionist area. However the Alliance party did quite well here in the local elections and have always had a good support base in the east. So.... possibly could take it back?? If people do actually turn on the DUP over brexit and the last few years but.. im unsure.

by **The Archregimancy** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:59 am

The Huskar Social Union wrote:NORTH DOWN:
Independent (Sylvia Hermon*) 41.1 (-8.1)
DUP (Alex Easton) 38.0 (+14.4)
Alliance (Andrew Muir) 9.3 (+0.7)
Green (NI) (Steven Agnew) 6.5 (+1.1)
* Sylvia Hermon might decide not to run in the next election based on some rumours ive heard

I understand she hasn't made a final decision yet; it depends on whether she thinks she can still win the seat if her old party run a candidate against her - which, paradoxically, could throw the seat to the DUP, despite her being a moderate Unionist representing a Remain constituency.

But tell us more about Lady Sylvia, Huskar.

Is her reputation as the closest thing that Unionism has to a senior left of centre Unionist justified, or does she just look left of centre compared to other senior Unionists?

The fact that she's continued as an MP despite caring for her late husband through his final illness [Alzheimer's] during her personal break with the UUP does suggest that she's at the very least a woman with a fair amount of character.

The Huskar Social Union wrote:Probably didnt need to do this but fuck it i was bored.

No, no; it was very interesting, thank you.

by **The Huskar Social Union** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:52 am

The Archregimancy wrote:
The Huskar Social Union wrote:NORTH DOWN:
Independent (Sylvia Hermon*) 41.1 (-8.1)
DUP (Alex Easton) 38.0 (+14.4)
Alliance (Andrew Muir) 9.3 (+0.7)
Green (NI) (Steven Agnew) 6.5 (+1.1)
* Sylvia Hermon might decide not to run in the next election based on some rumours ive heard

I understand she hasn't made a final decision yet; it depends on whether she thinks she can still win the seat if her old party run a candidate against her - which, paradoxically, could throw the seat to the DUP, despite her being a moderate Unionist representing a Remain constituency.

But tell us more about Lady Sylvia, Huskar.

Is her reputation as the closest thing that Unionism has to a senior left of centre Unionist justified, or does she just look left of centre compared to other senior Unionists?

The fact that she's continued as an MP despite caring for her late husband through his final illness [Alzheimer's] during her personal break with the UUP does suggest that she's at the very least a woman with a fair amount of character.

The Huskar Social Union wrote:Probably didnt need to do this but fuck it i was bored.

No, no; it was very interesting, thank you.

Thanks, at least someone appreciated it!

Well when she was in the UUP she was regarded as being one of the more liberal leaning members of the party, so i do believe that reputation is for the most part justified, though her track record on certain things is a bit mixed, for example from what i know she has opposed SSM multiple times in the past few years, but voted in favour of it back in July this year and has generally been supportive of Abortion being made legal for certain circumstances, so that alone makes her more liberally oriented than many unionist politicians.

Honestly ive always kind of had a bit of respect about her, from people in North Down ive heard lots of good things about her, that is she is as you said a person of some character and comes across as a very sensible no nonsense person who in my eyes has risen above the sectarianism and bigotry that is often prevalent in NI politics.

And because Sinn Fein dont take their seats, she is the sole voice for Remain in Westminster for the people of Northern Ireland, and has not been shy on calling out people for some of the absolutely stupid and dangerous ideas they have had for here regarding brexit, such as Boris Johnson himself.

She is one of the better Unionist politicians in my eyes, alongside the likes of Mike Nesbitt and Doug Beattie. Though i dont know everything about her, just some stuff.

I honestly hope she retains her position and the UUP dont try and split the moderate unionist vote as that would give the seat to the DUP.

Also the new UUP leadership is failing to impress me.

by **The Huskar Social Union** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:01 pm

Found this election map showing results across europe that was quite interesting to look at, though i noticed some off things about NI.

Sinn Fein is more left wing than the SDLP are by quite a bit i would say, so if the SDLP are classed as a Socialist Party, so should they. People before Profit is also a far left party and should be regarded as such, and Alliance as Liberal.

Cool map tho should check it out.

by **Ifreann** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:03 pm

The Huskar Social Union wrote:Found this election map showing results across europe that was quite interesting to look at, though i noticed some off things about NI.

Sinn Fein is more left wing than the SDLP are i would say, so if the SDLP are classed as a Socialist Party, so should they. People before Profit is also a far left party and should be regarded as such, and Alliance as Liberal.

Cool map tho should check it out.

Radical Sinn Fein radical agenda. *nods*

by **The Archregimancy** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:12 pm

Ifreann wrote:
The Huskar Social Union wrote:Found this election map showing results across europe that was quite interesting to look at, though i noticed some off things about NI.

Sinn Fein is more left wing than the SDLP are i would say, so if the SDLP are classed as a Socialist Party, so should they. People before Profit is also a far left party and should be regarded as such, and Alliance as Liberal.

Cool map tho should check it out.

Radical Sinn Fein radical agenda. *nods*

One of the recurring problems with Northern Ireland politics is that right of centre Nationalists and left of centre Unionists have almost nowhere to go. These are not insignificant political positions; Catholics are not necessarily going to embrace Sinn Fein's social agenda, and it's hardly inconceivable that there are socially liberal Unionists (though the UUP seems to have been making minor moves towards acknowledging the latter of late).

It won't be a surprise that I have some sympathy towards the Alliance Party, but I'm uncomfortable with the idea that they should be the only viable option for conservative Nationalists and socially liberal Unionists.

by **The Huskar Social Union** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:14 pm

The Archregimancy wrote:
Ifreann wrote:Radical Sinn Fein radical agenda. *nods*

One of the recurring problems with Northern Ireland politics is that right of centre Nationalists and left of centre Unionists have almost nowhere to go. These are not insignificant political positions; Catholics are not necessarily going to embrace Sinn Fein's social agenda, and it's hardly inconceivable that there are socially liberal Unionists (though the UUP seems to have been making minor moves towards acknowledging the latter of late).

It won't be a surprise that I have some sympathy towards the Alliance Party, but I'm uncomfortable with the idea that they should be the only viable option for conservative Nationalists and socially liberal Unionists.

Conservative nationalist are more likely to vote for the SDLP in my opinion (doesnt mean they necessarily will tho), and in the Foyle region they now have a new pro life Irish party called Aontu which propped up here in the North this year around the time of the local elections over SF's stance on abortion.

by **The Huskar Social Union** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:16 pm

UUP leader elect Steve Aiken says the UUP will continue to oppose an Irish language act.

Because of course they would.

by **SD_Film Artists** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:17 pm

The Archregimancy wrote:
Ifreann wrote:Radical Sinn Fein radical agenda. *nods*

One of the recurring problems with Northern Ireland politics is that right of centre Nationalists and left of centre Unionists have almost nowhere to go. These are not insignificant political positions; Catholics are not necessarily going to embrace Sinn Fein's social agenda, and it's hardly inconceivable that there are socially liberal Unionists (though the UUP seems to have been making minor moves towards acknowledging the latter of late).

It won't be a surprise that I have some sympathy towards the Alliance Party, but I'm uncomfortable with the idea that they should be the only viable option for conservative Nationalists and socially liberal Unionists.

I'd vote for Alliance too if I was Nirish. Both Sinn Fein and the DUP feel like they're stuck in a time warp.

by **The Huskar Social Union** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:19 pm

Police have been called over threats being made against UUP members and staff over their refusal to make a pact in North Belfast with the DUP

SD_Film Artists wrote:
The Archregimancy wrote:
One of the recurring problems with Northern Ireland politics is that right of centre Nationalists and left of centre Unionists have almost nowhere to go. These are not insignificant political positions; Catholics are not necessarily going to embrace Sinn Fein's social agenda, and it's hardly inconceivable that there are socially liberal Unionists (though the UUP seems to have been making minor moves towards acknowledging the latter of late).

It won't be a surprise that I have some sympathy towards the Alliance Party, but I'm uncomfortable with the idea that they should be the only viable option for conservative Nationalists and socially liberal Unionists.

I'd vote for Alliance too if I was Nirish. Both Sinn Fein and the DUP feel like they're stuck in a time warp.

They are, and its why i vote for alliance and occasionally through a preference towards PBP too.

Unfortunately i live in West Belfast where SF have the largest majority from the 2017 election of over 20k votes. So thats not changing any time soon.

by **The Archregimancy** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:26 pm

SD_Film Artists wrote:
The Archregimancy wrote:
One of the recurring problems with Northern Ireland politics is that right of centre Nationalists and left of centre Unionists have almost nowhere to go. These are not insignificant political positions; Catholics are not necessarily going to embrace Sinn Fein's social agenda, and it's hardly inconceivable that there are socially liberal Unionists (though the UUP seems to have been making minor moves towards acknowledging the latter of late).

It won't be a surprise that I have some sympathy towards the Alliance Party, but I'm uncomfortable with the idea that they should be the only viable option for conservative Nationalists and socially liberal Unionists.

I'd vote for Alliance too if I was Nirish. Both Sinn Fein and the DUP feel like they're stuck in a time warp.

I was seriously looking at taking up a position at Queen's University Belfast 2-3 years ago. It fell through, but it did give me pause for thought over who I would vote for in NI.

I'd vote Alliance; but that doesn't mean that Unionists and Nationalists who disagree with the social policies of their main community parties should feel a need to do likewise out of an absence of other options.

This Aontu party mentioned by Huskar shows that this is a concern for at least some Nationalists in NI; but where - other than non-party-affiliated Sylvia Hermon - are the centrist to left of centre unionists?

by **The Huskar Social Union** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:34 pm

The Archregimancy wrote:
SD_Film Artists wrote:
I'd vote for Alliance too if I was Nirish. Both Sinn Fein and the DUP feel like they're stuck in a time warp.

I was seriously looking at taking up a position at Queen's University Belfast 2-3 years ago. It fell through, but it did give me pause for thought over who I would vote for in NI.

I'd vote Alliance; but that doesn't mean that Unionists and Nationalists who disagree with the social policies of their main community parties should feel a need to do likewise out of an absence of other options.

This Aontu party mentioned by Huskar shows that this is a concern for at least some Nationalists in NI; but where - other than non-party-affiliated Sylvia Hermon - are the centrist to left of centre unionists?

There are some of them in the UUP, they just dont really have the traction to turn the party around. All too often the UUP ends up playin DUP lite and fucks themselves over and they never seem to learn, and there was an attempt at a more liberal unionist party called NI21 years ago but it died like immediately.

So liberal unionists are going alliance pretty much.

by **SD_Film Artists** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:44 pm

The Archregimancy wrote:
SD_Film Artists wrote:
I'd vote for Alliance too if I was Nirish. Both Sinn Fein and the DUP feel like they're stuck in a time warp.

I was seriously looking at taking up a position at Queen's University Belfast 2-3 years ago. It fell through, but it did give me pause for thought over who I would vote for in NI.

I'd vote Alliance; but that doesn't mean that Unionists and Nationalists who disagree with the social policies of their main community parties should feel a need to do likewise out of an absence of other options.

This Aontu party mentioned by Huskar shows that this is a concern for at least some Nationalists in NI; but where - other than non-party-affiliated Sylvia Hermon - are the centrist to left of centre unionists?

I would say that it'll be a good thing to have an NI branch of the Lib Dems, but given how many LDs would happily jump ship to an independant Scotland in the event of a No Deal, they're basically the same as Alliance rather than being true unionist. It's odd how the siege mentality of Northern Island make some parties more British than the mainland.

by **The Archregimancy** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:50 pm

SD_Film Artists wrote:
The Archregimancy wrote:
I was seriously looking at taking up a position at Queen's University Belfast 2-3 years ago. It fell through, but it did give me pause for thought over who I would vote for in NI.

I'd vote Alliance; but that doesn't mean that Unionists and Nationalists who disagree with the social policies of their main community parties should feel a need to do likewise out of an absence of other options.

This Aontu party mentioned by Huskar shows that this is a concern for at least some Nationalists in NI; but where - other than non-party-affiliated Sylvia Hermon - are the centrist to left of centre unionists?

I would say that it'll be a good thing to have an NI branch of the Lib Dems, but given how many LDs would happily jump ship to an independant Scotland in the event of a No Deal, they're basically the same as Alliance rather than being true unionist.

We actually have a formal alliance with, well Alliance. Alliance members in the Lords take the LibDem whip on issues that aren't specific to NI, and several senior Alliance Party members - including former Alliance leader David Ford - are simultaneously members of both parties.

Naomi Long is not a member of the LibDems, so didn't take the LibDem whip in her brief spell in the Commons; but otherwise the existing level of cooperation is very close.

Edit:
Also, this is apparently a thing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_ ... _Democrats

by **The Huskar Social Union** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:52 pm

The Archregimancy wrote:
SD_Film Artists wrote:
I would say that it'll be a good thing to have an NI branch of the Lib Dems, but given how many LDs would happily jump ship to an independant Scotland in the event of a No Deal, they're basically the same as Alliance rather than being true unionist.

We actually have a formal alliance with, well Alliance. Alliance members in the Lords take the LibDem whip on issues that aren't specific to NI, and several senior Alliance Party members - including former Alliance leader David Ford - are simultaneously members of both parties.

Naomi Long is not a member of the LibDems, so didn't take the LibDem whip in her brief spell in the Commons; but otherwise the existing level of cooperation is very close.

Edit:
Also, this is apparently a thing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_ ... _Democrats

Yeah Labour, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives all have branches in NI.

The Tories are the only ones who run tho and they get like fuck all votes.

edit: NI Labour did run in 2016 but got like 1600 votes.

by **Fartsniffage** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:20 pm

I was just reading the planning permission requirements for my local council. Apparently you have to pay £108 + Vat and complete a form if you want to replace your windows these days. What the fuck?

https://www.tameside.gov.uk/TamesideMBC ... indows.pdf

by **Greater vakolicci haven** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:19 pm

Fartsniffage wrote:I was just reading the planning permission requirements for my local council. Apparently you have to pay £108 + Vat and complete a form if you want to replace your windows these days. What the fuck?

https://www.tameside.gov.uk/TamesideMBC ... indows.pdf

I wonder if this guy would have something to say:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPHBH7TWgUo

by **The New California Republic** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:32 pm

The Archregimancy wrote:
SD_Film Artists wrote:
I'd vote for Alliance too if I was Nirish. Both Sinn Fein and the DUP feel like they're stuck in a time warp.

I was seriously looking at taking up a position at Queen's University Belfast 2-3 years ago. It fell through, but it did give me pause for thought over who I would vote for in NI.

I'd vote Alliance; but that doesn't mean that Unionists and Nationalists who disagree with the social policies of their main community parties should feel a need to do likewise out of an absence of other options.

This Aontu party mentioned by Huskar shows that this is a concern for at least some Nationalists in NI; but where - other than non-party-affiliated Sylvia Hermon - are the centrist to left of centre unionists?

I honestly don't know who I'd vote for in NI, but it'd not be the DUP.

by **Ostroeuropa** » Fri Nov 01, 2019 4:11 pm

McDonnel Cambell interview:

"Last time you cried?" - C
"I saw a documentary on rail privatization and-" - M

"lol straight to privatization" - C
"...and the documentary contained one of my constituents. He was a victim of the privatization. He was a train driver. I attended his funeral, and seeing him again brought it all back." - M

<cue curb your enthusiasm music>

UK Politics Thread XI: Boris' Big Bombastic Brexit Bash

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