UK Politics Thread XI: Boris' Big Bombastic Brexit Bash

[Salandriagado]

Perhaps, Vassenor, it might help raise the level of debate if you were to tell us why you think Labour suffered their worst loss since before the Second World War last night.

Clearly you don't think it was Labour's policies; so presumably you think it must have been something else?

Given that you were recently complaining about the lack of considered post-mortems in this thread, I would have thought you would welcome the opportunity to share your own analysis.

I look forward to reading your detailed thoughts on this important issue.

A combination of Corbyn's unpopularity, a weak campaign, not managing to properly explain some of those policies - notably Brexit, and generalised historical opinions of Labour's competence.

[Vassenor]

Perhaps, Vassenor, it might help raise the level of debate if you were to tell us why you think Labour suffered their worst loss since before the Second World War last night.

Clearly you don't think it was Labour's policies; so presumably you think it must have been something else?

Given that you were recently complaining about the lack of considered post-mortems in this thread, I would have thought you would welcome the opportunity to share your own analysis.

I look forward to reading your detailed thoughts on this important issue.

A combination of Corbyn's unpopularity, a weak campaign, and not managing to properly explain some of those policies - notably Brexit.

In all honesty, probably this. Plus a press that's out for blood which I guess comes under point one.

[Page]

I'm quite sad for my friends in the UK, not for ideological reasons but because for two people I know who have chronic illnesses and disabilities, the Conservative Party is an existential threat to them.

[The Archregimancy]

Another small mercy....

The Liberal Democrats are now the party with the highest percentage of women in their Westminster group*

64% of the LibDem parliamentary party are women (7 out of 11).

Woo us.

I'm really reaching, aren't I?


*Among parties with more than one MP; you need more than one person to be a group. Caroline Lucas, you're making this inconvenient.

[Gormwood]

A combination of Corbyn's unpopularity, a weak campaign, and not managing to properly explain some of those policies - notably Brexit.

In all honesty, probably this. Plus a press that's out for blood which I guess comes under point one.

It's a bitter Cassandric truth that some of the most profound ideas are from people the rest of the world wishes would fuck off and die.

[Hirota]

Another small mercy....

The Liberal Democrats are now the party with the highest percentage of women in their Westminster group*

64% of the LibDem parliamentary party are women (7 out of 11).

Woo us.

I'm really reaching, aren't I?


*Among parties with more than one MP; you need more than one person to be a group. Caroline Lucas, you're making this inconvenient.

Lib Dems regained a fair portion of the share of the vote. Approaching that tipping point where votes start turning into seats. And honestly, Lib Dems were in an artifically inflated position before the election. Half of them were defections as opposed to actual constituencies supporting their MP.

[Chan Island]

Can I also just say what a shambles Labour’s organization was? We had 700 people show up to one canvassing event in Putney, meanwhile in one of the north London seats only 10 or so showed up to a similar canvass at the same time- oh but this one didn’t have Owen Jones, because manpower resources are well used standing around taking selfies with one journalist.

Well, the silver lining is I’m rather guiltily looking forward to shouting at some .... let’s say, unworthy, campaign organizers (a paid staff position by the way!) I’ve encountered through the election.

[The Blaatschapen]

Another small mercy....

The Liberal Democrats are now the party with the highest percentage of women in their Westminster group*

64% of the LibDem parliamentary party are women (7 out of 11).

Woo us.

I'm really reaching, aren't I?


*Among parties with more than one MP; you need more than one person to be a group. Caroline Lucas, you're making this inconvenient.

Lib Dems regained a fair portion of the share of the vote. Approaching that tipping point where votes start turning into seats. And honestly, Lib Dems were in an artifically inflated position before the election. Half of them were defections as opposed to actual constituencies supporting their MP.

Indeed, 2017 election they gained 12 seats, 2019 election they had 11. So only a net loss of one. And with a +4% vote swing their direction(I checked wikipedia, the final number is still up to change of course), it isn't too bad and there's plenty of prospect here.

[Chan Island]

Oh and also- yes Rosie! Well done holding onto Canterbury!

Yes, I know I’m taking small individual bright spots but still!

[Hirota]

Can I also just say what a shambles Labour’s organization was? We had 700 people show up to one canvassing event in Putney, meanwhile in one of the north London seats only 10 or so showed up to a similar canvass at the same time- oh but this one didn’t have Owen Jones, because manpower resources are well used standing around taking selfies with one journalist.

You don't expect them to actually travel that far and do proper canvassing when they can narcissistically virtue signal on Twatter do you?

Still, they did win Putney, so I guess that they at least got out of bed to vote..hope they didn't take a selfie in the polling station though.

[The Archregimancy]

Another small mercy....

The Liberal Democrats are now the party with the highest percentage of women in their Westminster group*

64% of the LibDem parliamentary party are women (7 out of 11).

Woo us.

I'm really reaching, aren't I?


*Among parties with more than one MP; you need more than one person to be a group. Caroline Lucas, you're making this inconvenient.

Lib Dems regained a fair portion of the share of the vote. Approaching that tipping point where votes start turning into seats. And honestly, Lib Dems were in an artifically inflated position before the election. Half of them were defections as opposed to actual constituencies supporting their MP.

Oh look, I know it's a very long way back from the 2015 debacle. This is a decade-long project. One of the little-observed problems (outside of LibDem circles) in the wake of the 2015 election was the extent to which we lost most of our old geographical bases and fell to third in so many seats; we no longer had a good body of seats in specific regions where we were a strong second. Recovering from that - if recovery is possible - is a very long process. We've been off life support for a couple of years now, but we're still in a long period of deep convalescence.

I recognise the truth in what you're saying, and the silver lining is that our share of the national vote went up by more than any other party. We improved by 4.1%, which is a not insignificant improvement when last time around we only won a total of 7.4%. Johnson's majority was not built on the back of a significant rise in the Tory vote (which only went up 1.2%) - it was down to the collapse of the Labour vote (which fell by 7.8%).

But while intellectually I can process all of that, emotionally it's still a fairly disappointing night for us, especially since our vote share went up, but our seat numbers went down (whichever way you count the latter); and we lost our leader, of course. For all that people are focusing on this being the worst result for Labour since 1935 (I would actually argue since 1931; while Labour won fewer seats in 1935 than in 2019, 1935 was actually a successful election for the party, with both seat numbers and vote share increasing significantly), Swinson is the first leader of a national party to lose her seat since - appropriately enough - Liberal Party leader Archibald Sinclair in 1945.

I've been fairly open earlier in the thread about what went wrong for us in this election, but it's going to take a while to process these results.

[Chan Island]

Can I also just say what a shambles Labour’s organization was? We had 700 people show up to one canvassing event in Putney, meanwhile in one of the north London seats only 10 or so showed up to a similar canvass at the same time- oh but this one didn’t have Owen Jones, because manpower resources are well used standing around taking selfies with one journalist.

You don't expect them to actually travel that far and do proper canvassing when they can narcissistically virtue signal on Twatter do you?

Still, they did win Putney, so I guess that they at least got out of bed to vote..hope they didn't take a selfie in the polling station though.

Ironically the sick part of me thought we lost Putney when I saw the exit poll, and my mind had gleefully drafted the rant to feature that we still lost it despite the deluge. Hey, maybe we need to have a real tidal wave approach next election...

[Vassenor]

Besides, the animosity is at the point where Corbyn could've probably publicly disembowelled himself at Speaker's Corner and there'd still be people claiming he was dragging his feet.

[Chan Island]

Besides, the animosity is at the point where Corbyn could've probably publicly disembowelled himself at Speaker's Corner and there'd still be people claiming he was dragging his feet.

Never forget that the press made Miliband look bad while he was giving money to the homeless.

And yes, I know I spend a lot of time arguing press unfairness (because it’s true) but at the end of the day, it’s not a totally impossible hurdle. We just need someone who can fight, counter, schmooze or go past them to break the stranglehold. And Corbyn definitely did not do that.

[Gormwood]

Besides, the animosity is at the point where Corbyn could've probably publicly disembowelled himself at Speaker's Corner and there'd still be people claiming he was dragging his feet.

If the day comes Jezz passes on, hopefully they'll post guards on his casket and grave.

[Hirota]

Oh look, I know it's a very long way back from the 2015 debacle. This is a decade-long project. One of the little-observed problems (outside of LibDem circles) in the wake of the 2015 election was the extent to which we lost most of our old geographical bases and fell to third in so many seats; we no longer had a good body of seats in specific regions where we were a strong second. Recovering from that - if recovery is possible - is a very long process. We've been off life support for a couple of years now, but we're still in a long period of deep convalescence.

I recognise the truth in what you're saying, and the silver lining is that our share of the national vote went up by more than any other party. We improved by 4.1%, which is a not insignificant improvement when last time around we only won a total of 7.4%. Johnson's majority was not built on the back of a significant rise in the Tory vote (which only went up 1.2%) - it was down to the collapse of the Labour vote (which fell by 7.8%).

But while intellectually I can process all of that, emotionally it's still a fairly disappointing night for us, especially since our vote share went up, but our seat numbers went down (whichever way you count the latter); and we lost our leader, of course. For all that people are focusing on this being the worst result for Labour since 1935 (I would actually argue since 1931; while Labour won fewer seats in 1935 than in 2019, 1935 was actually a successful election for the party, with both seat numbers and vote share increasing significantly), Swinson is the first leader of a national party since - appropriately enough - Liberal Party leader Archibald Sinclair in 1945.

I've been fairly open earlier in the thread about what went wrong for us in this election, but it's going to take a while to process these results.

Oh, I think it's going to take a while for all of us to process these results Arch. Until last night I was expecting a Narrow Tory majority, same as pretty much everyone, if they were being honest. But other than Swinson going, the Lib Dems should have some cautious optimism going forward.

Besides, the animosity is at the point where Corbyn could've probably publicly disembowelled himself at Speaker's Corner and there'd still be people claiming he was dragging his feet.

He'd certainly be accused of dragging something if he disembowelled himself, just much more literally than you think.

Ironically the sick part of me thought we lost Putney when I saw the exit poll, and my mind had gleefully drafted the rant to feature that we still lost it despite the deluge. Hey, maybe we need to have a real tidal wave approach next election...

Having lived walking distance from Putney for 5 years - I always enjoyed going to the Waitrose there - I'm not surprised a constituency that voted remain, and is largely middle-class and pretty diverse changed from a party that pledged to leave, to a party that was remain-adjacent.

It goes to show that Labour seriously underestimated how important Brexit is to voters.

[The Archregimancy]

I was wondering who the new Father of the House is; had he held Bolsover, it would have been Dennis Skinner.

It's Peter Bottomley, first elected to Parliament in a by-election in 1975.

[Greater vakolicci haven]

I was wondering who the new Father of the House is; had he held Bolsover, it would have been Dennis Skinner.

It's Peter Bottomley, first elected to Parliament in a by-election in 1975.

I honestly wish Dennis Skinner had been able to hold on to his seat. He always struck me as an honest mp who worked hard for his constituents.

[Dumb Ideologies]

First attempt to rake over this mess with a semi-logical head.

The election was lost when Corbyn was pushed by conference policy wonks into a Brexit position that felt like a betrayal to many in the heartlands, those whose basic sentiment was that "Brexit is a kick to the establishment".

The policy was a complete bleeding ulcer in the campaign. It meant that Boris - fucking Boris - could present himself as a man of the people and thereby cut off a lot of the Labour narrative.

The previous election this wasn't a thing, everyone was saying they'd respect the referendum, talking about ReLeavers and different visions of how it'd be done. The Tories have been massive beneficiaries of their own slide into chaos and the way it opened up alternate narratives that weren't previously politically acceptable.

The emergence of revokers and 2nd referendumers as a significant electoral faction - due to the Tories own Brexit clusterfuck - meant that labour were playing an impossible game of triangulation in which their position on the most prominent issue didn't match their heartlands, and their position on everything else didn't match the alternative bases they were going for.

In the cold light of day, how could that electoral strategy possibly have worked?

[Philjia]

Right, final predictions time. I think that the Tories are going to get a majority in the range of 330-340 seats, mostly taken from Labour and gains from seats lost to rebels. Labour will get somewhere from 230 to 240, also regaining some rebel seats. The Lib Dems will lose seats overall due to their current ranks being bulked out with ex Labour and Tory MPs, but will take a couple from the Tories in return, putting them somewhere around 15. The SNP should at least retain what they've got. The Brexit Party will fail to make any impact, while Plaid and the Greens will probably remain unchanged on 4 and 1 each. Sinn Fein and the DUP will likely remain the only NI parties with Westminster seats, give or take one or two maybe lost to the Alliance Party.

Impressively, it's much worse than I expected. The Tories are on 364, their best result since Thatcher's annihilation of Michael Foot. In contrast, Labour have 203, which is even worse than Michael Foot. The last time they won fewer seats was 1935, where they won 154. The Lib Dems 11 is also worse than I expected, and one fewer than they managed in 2017. The SNP's 48 isn't a total recovery of their losses in 2017, but it's still a strong result for them. Plaid and the Greens held onto their seats as expected.

Meanwhile in NI, the DUP/SF duopoly has been eroded slightly. Sinn Fein are still on 7 seats, but the DUP lost 2 for a total of 8. The SDLP gained 2 seats, which isn't as good as the 3 they got in 2015 but it's a start. Alliance got 1, putting them back where they were in 2010. The Brexit Party split a lot of votes but won nothing, UKIP got fewer votes than The Yorkshire Party or UUP, but did better than Change UK, who were also beaten by the eurosceptic Liberal Party.

[The Archregimancy]

For those who missed it...

Alan Johnson rips into Jon Lansman and Momentum live on ITV.

Clearly not all senior party figures believe that the core problem is unfair media coverage of the leader.

[Phoenicaea]

i m not brit, so it is not uneasy if my comment gets passed on. what i say, is i read some people speak about unfair tv and press. it is true.

i live this same thing, politically, in my country, where it s worse. personally, i ve come to pacts with this, it s life. accept it, ignore their false arguments.

[Vassenor]

Clearly we should've trusted the election to Milliband's sandwich. </s>

[Lower Nubia]

The genuinely sad thing is if we had MMP we would have an entirely different future outcome. I’m not concerned about Corbyn’s loss, as the EHRC’s report on antisemitism, the IFS’s analysis on Labour’s manifesto concerning tax, made Corbyn’s position weaker. While Boris’s EU deal is hardly fiscally conservative, his parties islamophobia and deceit in this election should have made the electorate question a vote for either. Apparently, however, the sunk cost fallacy over Brexit was all the electorate really ever needed. I’m glad I spoiled my ballot

[An Alan Smithee Nation]

So did young people not vote, or did they mainly vote Conservative?