UK Politics Thread XI: Boris' Big Bombastic Brexit Bash

[An Alan Smithee Nation]

The following graph explains why Labour are not going to win this election far better than any comparisons of 2019 and 2017 poll ratings, and arguing over the extent to which those two elections resemble each other:

(Image)

In only one of those elections - 2005 - did the leader with the worse approval rating win, and that was in the aftermath of the Iraq War.

We'll no doubt have the opportunity early next year to see if Labour would do much better (with similar policies) under Rebecca Long-Bailey or Keir Starmer; in other words, we'll find out soon enough if the problem is Corbyn specifically or if the problem is systemic.


And at no point since these data were first tracked have we gone into an election with two main party leaders who are so widely (and wildly) unpopular.

I'm rather hoping that all these debates haven't made the general election so presidential that the unpopularity of party leaders means the unpopularity of Johnson's government counts for nothing.

[The Archregimancy]

The following graph explains why Labour are not going to win this election far better than any comparisons of 2019 and 2017 poll ratings, and arguing over the extent to which those two elections resemble each other:

(Image)

In only one of those elections - 2005 - did the leader with the worse approval rating win, and that was in the aftermath of the Iraq War.

We'll no doubt have the opportunity early next year to see if Labour would do much better (with similar policies) under Rebecca Long-Bailey or Keir Starmer; in other words, we'll find out soon enough if the problem is Corbyn specifically or if the problem is systemic.


And at no point since these data were first tracked have we gone into an election with two main party leaders who are so widely (and wildly) unpopular.

I'm rather hoping that all these debates haven't made the general election so presidential that the unpopularity of party leaders means the unpopularity of Johnson's government counts for nothing.

I regret that that particular ship seems to have sailed a long, long time ago.

2005 is the only election since the relevant data were first collected in 1983 where there hasn't been a clear correlation between party leader approval rating (for the two main parties) and the subsequent election result. And 1983 and 1997 show a clear correlation between wide gaps in party leader approval rating and subsequent landslide.

The main thing that's different this time around is that both leaders are deeply unpopular; though Johnson isn't as catastrophically and as unprecedentedly unpopular as Corbyn.

[Greater vakolicci haven]

The following graph explains why Labour are not going to win this election far better than any comparisons of 2019 and 2017 poll ratings, and arguing over the extent to which those two elections resemble each other:

(Image)

In only one of those elections - 2005 - did the leader with the worse approval rating win, and that was in the aftermath of the Iraq War.

We'll no doubt have the opportunity early next year to see if Labour would do much better (with similar policies) under Rebecca Long-Bailey or Keir Starmer; in other words, we'll find out soon enough if the problem is Corbyn specifically or if the problem is systemic.


And at no point since these data were first tracked have we gone into an election with two main party leaders who are so widely (and wildly) unpopular.

I'm rather hoping that all these debates haven't made the general election so presidential that the unpopularity of party leaders means the unpopularity of Johnson's government counts for nothing.

It's not just the debates though, it's often the way the system works. Before 2010 large majorities were very common, so the pm was able to act presidential.

[Vassenor]

So the YouTube attack ads suggest that the Conservatives are expecting a hung parliament result.

They're also telling me that either my constituency has gone from CON Safe to CON-LAB marginal, or that Google thinks I'm somewhere other than where I actually live again.

[Greater vakolicci haven]

So the YouTube attack ads suggest that the Conservatives are expecting a hung parliament result.

They're also telling me that either my constituency has gone from CON Safe to CON-LAB marginal, or that Google thinks I'm somewhere other than where I actually live again.

Google news likes to give me from local news from far away, so I wouldn't be surprised if google fucked up for you also.

[An Alan Smithee Nation]

[Removed the spam quote]

It was supposed to be a red, white, and blue Brexit.

[Shamhnan Insir]

Scottish Independence voting intention: No: 56% (+5) Yes: 44% (-5) via @YouGov , 03 - 06 Dec Chgs. w/ Sep

i can't fucking believe it

what kind of person looks at scotland having brexit forced down its throat against its will, an incoming tory majority being shoved down its throat against its will and the general concept of stuck in an outdated union that doesn't work but no one is willing to fix and goes "oh yeah i'd love some more of that". a fucking 5 point shift towards no six goddam days before a boris majority.

i fucking hate politics in this country so much. it's like an endless cycle of trying to convince people not to put their hands on the stove and them immediately running towards the stove full speed palm extended as soon as you turn your back because their shithead friend told them it would be great. the primarily difference is that, unlike a literal five year old, these people are incapable of learning and just shove their hand on the stove over and over. and if you point out that they're being ridiculous and that their friend is a lying sack of shit, you're the out of touch elitist because ummm excuse me are you implying that the the people are dumb and can't figure out what's best for themselves???

Scot's have had many years of observing what blindly chasing nationalism really means. Brexit is a mess, but let's not pretend that Scexit would lead to sunshine and rainbows. There exists deeper need for some introspection in the UK, but the idea that to achieve these ends you need to cut yourself off from your allies if silly.

[The Archregimancy]

I'm rather hoping that all these debates haven't made the general election so presidential that the unpopularity of party leaders means the unpopularity of Johnson's government counts for nothing.

It's not just the debates though, it's often the way the system works. Before 2010 large majorities were very common, so the pm was able to act presidential.

This is not really true, though it may depend how you define 'large majority'.

Blair and Thatcher enjoyed large majorities twice each, but that doesn't mean they've been particularly common when compared to small majorities, or that this necessarily caused a more presidential approach.

Of the 20 general elections from 1945 onwards...


3 (Feb 1974, 2010, 2017) failed to return a majority government (though a coalition with a majority of 78 was subsequently formed after the 2010 election).

8 (1950, 1951, 1964, 1970, Oct 1974, 1979, 1992, 2015) returned governments with majorities of 1-49.

3 (1955, 1966, 2005) returned governments with majorities of 50-99.

6 (1945, 1959, 1983, 1987, 1997, 2001) returned governments with majorities of 100 or more.


The first two categories - no majority and majorities of under 50 - outnumber the latter two categories 11 to 9.

It would, however, be fair to note that the second two categories just outnumber the first two categories 9 to 8 if we only include elections from 1945 to 2005. So reasonably common in that period, yes. Notably so? No.

[The Archregimancy]

I think that is one of the reasons PPL is declining in sales.

Don't quote spam, please.

I can't act on this one since I'm a regular participant in this thread, but I've asked the rest of the mods to review this and decide what - if any - action might be necessary.

[Gim]

I think that is one of the reasons PPL is declining in sales.

Don't quote spam, please.

I can't act on this one since I'm a regular participant in this thread, but I've asked the rest of the mods to review this and decide what - if any - action might be necessary.

What's quote spamming? I'm talking about the effect of Brexit upon Premier League, which I misspelt as PPL in abbreviation.

[Gormwood]

Don't quote spam, please.

I can't act on this one since I'm a regular participant in this thread, but I've asked the rest of the mods to review this and decide what - if any - action might be necessary.

What's quote spamming? I'm talking about the effect of Brexit upon Premier League, which I misspelt as PPL in abbreviation.

Don't quote the spam.

[Greater vakolicci haven]

What's quote spamming? I'm talking about the effect of Brexit upon Premier League, which I misspelt as PPL in abbreviation.

Don't quote the spam.

Spam gets such a bad reputation around these parts.

[Gormwood]

Don't quote the spam.

Spam gets such a bad reputation around these parts.

Like you ever had to resort to eating Spam.

[Greater vakolicci haven]

Spam gets such a bad reputation around these parts.

Like you ever had to resort to eating Spam.

Once, never to be repeated.

[Vassenor]

Boris Johnson condemned in brutal direct attack by London Bridge victim's father: 'He’s the worst of us and he’s taking you for a ride'

So the father of one of the LB victims hasn't just condemned Boris, he's openly advocating people vote to dump the Conservatives.

[Thanatttynia]

Scottish Independence voting intention: No: 56% (+5) Yes: 44% (-5) via @YouGov , 03 - 06 Dec Chgs. w/ Sep

i can't fucking believe it

what kind of person looks at scotland having brexit forced down its throat against its will, an incoming tory majority being shoved down its throat against its will and the general concept of stuck in an outdated union that doesn't work but no one is willing to fix and goes "oh yeah i'd love some more of that". a fucking 5 point shift towards no six goddam days before a boris majority.

i fucking hate politics in this country so much. it's like an endless cycle of trying to convince people not to put their hands on the stove and them immediately running towards the stove full speed palm extended as soon as you turn your back because their shithead friend told them it would be great. the primarily difference is that, unlike a literal five year old, these people are incapable of learning and just shove their hand on the stove over and over. and if you point out that they're being ridiculous and that their friend is a lying sack of shit, you're the out of touch elitist because ummm excuse me are you implying that the the people are dumb and can't figure out what's best for themselves???

I can't imagine any sensible person looking at Brexit and thinking the solution is more referendums, more division, more inertia and distrust. Scottish independence is the stove in this analogy

[Greater vakolicci haven]

Boris Johnson condemned in brutal direct attack by London Bridge victim's father: 'He’s the worst of us and he’s taking you for a ride'

So the father of one of the LB victims hasn't just condemned Boris, he's openly advocating people vote to dump the Conservatives.

That guy sounds like Jo Cox's husband, shamelessly using the death of a family member to push a political agenda.

[Gormwood]

Boris Johnson condemned in brutal direct attack by London Bridge victim's father: 'He’s the worst of us and he’s taking you for a ride'

So the father of one of the LB victims hasn't just condemned Boris, he's openly advocating people vote to dump the Conservatives.

That guy sounds like Jo Cox's husband, shamelessly using the death of a family member to push a political agenda.

You're only allowed to use the death of loved ones to shill for Tory agendas. *nod nod*

[The New California Republic]

Scottish Independence voting intention: No: 56% (+5) Yes: 44% (-5) via @YouGov , 03 - 06 Dec Chgs. w/ Sep

For some of us, those figures come as a relief rather than something to get upset about.

Indeed. I'm actually very happy about it. It's a good start to the weekend.

[The New California Republic]

The past three years of the country making a badly managed exit from a union has probably not helped sell the idea of doing it again.

Folk here are likely looking at the Irish border situation and thinking "shit, that border nonsense would likely happen here too in the event of a yes result".

[Definitely Not Trumptonium]

Have you seen the Democratic Party debates with 12 people on stage?

It's unwatchable horsecrap.

That's because it's full of Democrats
More to the point, during Corbyn-Boris debates there's no representation for remainers.

There's thousands of ideologies that wouldn't be represented in a 10-way debate between all parties with more than 0.5% in the polls, not least communists and fascists of which there are plenty in this country.

I'm not interested in what Sturgeon or the weird welsh guy thinks, I can't even vote for them. The others are just an unnecessary distraction adding nothing more than the TV debate equivalent of shouting in the House of Commons, which is nauseating.

The 2015 debates were a funny example of that. David Cameron barely spoke, he just allowed all the other morons to bicker over useless things, and ended up winning anyway.

Honestly, I'm more likely to vote for someone who doesn't attend a debate. It shows me they have the intelligence and strong spirit to avoid torturing oneself by talking to people of painfully opposing views, regardless of what their own view is. I don't talk to Jehovah witnesses, I simply close the door like I did on Tuesday. Plus points if they don't care about trial by media by not attending these stupid debates, or better yet, play the media into their own game like Trump and Macron do.

Why not hear the views of other parties? Otherwise you're just encouraging the tired, anachronistic two-party system.

Well, would you like to hear the views of people you legitimately can't even vote for as they don't stand nationwide but in a single region? Surely they're a waste of time outside of local TV.

[Definitely Not Trumptonium]

Boris Johnson condemned in brutal direct attack by London Bridge victim's father: 'He’s the worst of us and he’s taking you for a ride'

So the father of one of the LB victims hasn't just condemned Boris, he's openly advocating people vote to dump the Conservatives.

Why is anyone supposed to care

[Thermodolia]

I’ve got my PR House of Commons calculator all set up. The day after the results are posted you’ll see my post about how the election would have looked using a Party list PR system, both national and regional district systems will be shown.

And yes this will be a semi-regular thing from me

[Greater vakolicci haven]

That guy sounds like Jo Cox's husband, shamelessly using the death of a family member to push a political agenda.

You're only allowed to use the death of loved ones to shill for Tory agendas. *nod nod*

If he was using the death of his child to support Boris I'd disagree with it also. I think it's in very poor taste.

[The Huskar Social Union]

I’ve got my PR House of Commons calculator all set up. The day after the results are posted you’ll see my post about how the election would have looked using a Party list PR system, both national and regional district systems will be shown.

And yes this will be a semi-regular thing from me

Gib NI PR results


gib