Turkish military offensive in Syria/Rojava

[Loben The 2nd]

This statement exhibits a lack of understanding of current geopolitics, just look at a map, and tell me who controls the passage leading to Russia’s only warm water coast?

that's kind of irrelevant next to the claim that turkey will be a russian ally in the next few years
however accurate the assessment of turkey's geopolitical value, if it's gonna become a russian toady by the end of it, why do this shit?

if we can reverse the damage done then it will mean that south eastern Europe will be secured.

[Duhon]

that's kind of irrelevant next to the claim that turkey will be a russian ally in the next few years
however accurate the assessment of turkey's geopolitical value, if it's gonna become a russian toady by the end of it, why do this shit?

if we can reverse the damage done then it will mean that south eastern Europe will be secured.

reverse? what reverse?

erdogan gets everything he wanted, russia extends its influence, trump ends up the fool he always is was and always will be, the us loses all credibility, kurds get shafted HARD

reverse?

[Bear Stearns]

They aren't needed in NATO anymore

This statement exhibits a lack of understanding of current geopolitics, just look at a map, and tell me who controls the passage leading to Russia’s only warm water coast?

who gives a fuck if Russia has access through that passage. It's certainly not worth getting involved in Middle Eastern tribal conflicts.

[The Lone Alliance]

They aren't needed in NATO anymore

This statement exhibits a lack of understanding of current geopolitics, just look at a map, and tell me who controls the passage leading to Russia’s only warm water coast?

Who cares who controls it?

With the range of modern cruise missiles you can simply place a bunch of medium range Anti-Ship missiles in Greece and it'll cover it.

Besides the Russian Black Sea fleet is not going to really be much of a threat to world peace.

Hell even in the height of the cold war Analysts said that the Russian Navy would be useless in offensive situations, it might look scary when they show the Russian Navy conquering New York City in Call of Duty but it's never going to happen.

If we go to war with Russia, with or without Turkey, the Black Sea fleet is going to remain in the Black Sea simply to make sure it remains in Russian hands and with or without Turkey if we tried to send ships through the strait they'd likely get sunk in the process.

If they're never going to leave the bathtub, why it it militarily critical to block the drain?

that's kind of irrelevant next to the claim that turkey will be a russian ally in the next few years
however accurate the assessment of turkey's geopolitical value, if it's gonna become a russian toady by the end of it, why do this shit?

if we can reverse the damage done then it will mean that south eastern Europe will be secured.

Secure from what?

What big bad threat is there in Southeast Europe... well outside of Turkey who historically have had designs on conquering Southeastern Europe.

There is nothing to protect against in Southeastern Europe except perhaps each other, cause they still all hate one another there.

[Loben The 2nd]

This statement exhibits a lack of understanding of current geopolitics, just look at a map, and tell me who controls the passage leading to Russia’s only warm water coast?

who gives a fuck if Russia has access through that passage. It's certainly not worth getting involved in Middle Eastern tribal conflicts.

The Black sea Fleet.....

[The Lone Alliance]

who gives a fuck if Russia has access through that passage. It's certainly not worth getting involved in Middle Eastern tribal conflicts.

The Black sea Fleet.....

What's it going to do, sink at us?

"What Black Sea fleet"

That's what would happen to the Black Sea fleet in any determined military confrontation with NATO.

In the case of war the Black Sea fleet is going to remain in the Black Sea where it's nice and safe as a fleet in being.

They're definitely not going to get out of the Med at the very least.

[Loben The 2nd]

The Black sea Fleet.....

What's it going to do, sink at us?

"What Black Sea fleet"

That's what would happen to the Black Sea fleet in any determined military confrontation with NATO.

So confidant.....

It gives them increased operational space for one.

[The Lone Alliance]

What's it going to do, sink at us?

"What Black Sea fleet"

That's what would happen to the Black Sea fleet in any determined military confrontation with NATO.

So confidant.....

It's like what the Tripitz did in World War 2, the Black Sea fleet is more useful as a fleet in being than a fleet that's going to sink the entire US and NATO navies.

As long as the Black Sea Fleet sits in the Black Sea, NATO can't do anything in the Black Sea.

That's pretty much their purpose, if they leave the Black Sea, then the Black Sea is left undefended and the Black Sea fleet can be picked off while it attempts to get to the Atlantic or past Greece into the more open parts of the Med.

The Russian Navy is designed more for defensive measures than offensive measures.

Yes they have some limited offensive capabilities but for the vast majority, Russia never designed their Navy to sail out into the Middle of the Atlantic and go Toe to Toe with NATO and come out swarming the eastern Seaboard in a Red Alert 2 like invasion.

Have you even looked at what is in the Black Sea fleet?

Seven major surface ships (1 Cruiser, 1 Destroyer, and 5 Frigates)
Seven Diesel submarines (And likely the only thing that could be used offensively...)
And Seven landing ships.

The rest are minesweepers, corvettes, and coastal defense patrol boats that would be useless for doing anything more than defending the Black Sea.

[Loben The 2nd]

and say we start loosing ships in a REFORGER style scenario?

[The Lone Alliance]

and say we start loosing ships in a REFORGER style scenario?

Why would Greece (A NATO member) lose their own ships and leave their shores undefended?

Furthermore if Russia did attempt to do something in Southeast Europe, where could they target?

Sure they might be able to take a few Greek Islands but NATO airpower would quickly neutralize any attempt to turn such a location into a viable advance base.

Southeast Europe is pretty much hostile to Russian interests at this point, even Serbia is too busy trying to join the EU to care about them, so there's no allies to back up.

Really I can't really think of how they could use the Black Sea fleet as anything more than a distraction against an offensive in Northern Europe.

Really the largest threat they could pose, abet the only threat, is from their submarine fleet which, in the case of WW3 would just sail through the strait and completely ignore all conventions because it's war and screw the rules.

And short of Turkey putting a huge net over the strait or flooding it with sea mines, they're not going to be able to stop that.

Quite frankly though we're going to lose Turkey no matter what we do, see we're SUPPOSED to care about things like "Human Rights" and "The Right to Vote" and silly things that Endrogen no longer cares about, and we'll never give them the Saudi Arabia package.

[The East Marches II]

I was talking about choosing turkey over Rojava.

Yes. So was I.
Next time America will want to finance some uprising somewhere, I think that the betrayal of the Kurds will pop up.

You've far far more optimism about human nature than I. This has been our MO since the 50s. It's the Anglo tradition :^)

[The East Marches II]

and say we start loosing ships in a REFORGER style scenario?

Why would Greece (A NATO member) lose their own ships and leave their shores undefended?

Furthermore if Russia did attempt to do something in Southeast Europe, where could they target?

Sure they might be able to take a few Greek Islands but NATO airpower would quickly neutralize any attempt to turn such a location into a viable advance base.

Southeast Europe is pretty much hostile to Russian interests at this point, even Serbia is too busy trying to join the EU to care about them, so there's no allies to back up.

Really I can't really think of how they could use the Black Sea fleet as anything more than a distraction against an offensive in Northern Europe.

Really the largest threat they could pose, abet the only threat, is from their submarine fleet which, in the case of WW3 would just sail through the strait and completely ignore all conventions because it's war and screw the rules.

And short of Turkey putting a huge net over the strait or flooding it with sea mines, they're not going to be able to stop that.

Quite frankly though we're going to lose Turkey no matter what we do, see we're SUPPOSED to care about things like "Human Rights" and "The Right to Vote" and silly things that Endrogen no longer cares about, and we'll never give them the Saudi Arabia package.

Because our NATO allies no longer have functioning armies, navies and air forces. It's all correct what you said but in clown world, nations declare victory when they disarm and act like they have moral justice on their side when they get blackmailed with refugees. We wouldn't need the Turks if our other allies weren't functionally worthless outside Poland, Britain and the Baltics. NATO has never been about human rights or democracy. Don't make me laugh. We backed coups in Greece and Turkey. We supported the crypto-fascists during the years of lead in Italy and shady political disappearances in other parts of Europe. Your naive view of what the role of a military alliance based around mutual defense and coalition warfare is not conducive to coming correct conclusions.I added a picture so you can understand just who Uncle Sam is :^)

edit: as for your ignorant comment re submarines, what do you think the point of controlling a strategic choke point is? They watch that place like hawks. It's filled with all number of defenses. Even assuming they don't get them all, it's a hell of alot better than none given our current lack of ships. That's the price of having allies who can't carry their own weight. We are over stretched as is.

[The East Marches II]

It's good to see you Kubra. You sir, are an excellent fellow for even caring for the Egyptians who went to Yemen. Have your travels ever taken you to there or Greece?

hahaha heck no I like my head where it is
When it comes to hot spots I'm comfortable watching from afar whilst engaging in the Anglo-Saxon pastime of ruining southeast asia

I always knew you were a man of culture and taste.

[Nakena]

edit: as for your ignorant comment re submarines, what do you think the point of controlling a strategic choke point is? They watch that place like hawks. It's filled with all number of defenses. Even assuming they don't get them all, it's a hell of alot better than none given our current lack of ships. That's the price of having allies who can't carry their own weight. We are over stretched as is.

Decomissioning the Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates was a mistake.

[The Lone Alliance]

Because our NATO allies no longer have functioning armies, navies and air forces. It's all correct what you said but in clown world, nations declare victory when they disarm and act like they have moral justice on their side when they get blackmailed with refugees.

And most of those nations are the nations of Western Europe.

We wouldn't need the Turks if our other allies weren't functionally worthless outside Poland, Britain and the Baltics.

Greece has actually kept their NATO funding within the limits, their military budget is 2.8 of their GDP.... (It helps that their GDP is pathetic), Greece is actually more like the nations you listed above in that they actually are trying to maintain their military, partly because they hate Turkey and partly because giving people employment in the military is still technically employment.

So your argument doesn't apply to Greece. If anything they're trying to arm up because now they see Turkey as threatening their interests.

NATO has never been about human rights or democracy. Don't make me laugh. We backed coups in Greece and Turkey. We supported the crypto-fascists during the years of lead in Italy and shady political disappearances in other parts of Europe. Your naive view of what the role of a military alliance based around mutual defense and coalition warfare is not conducive to coming correct conclusions.

The all caps in "Supposed" is obvious sarcasm. There's a reason I mentioned the Saudi Arabia package, the west and NATO were always glad to look the other way about those things during the Cold War but since that war ended NATO is now filled with nations that can afford to care about those things.

That's the same reason so many of the NATO nations downsized their military is after they cold war they had this foolish belief that the only reason they'll need a military is to police 3rd world countries for the UN.

edit: as for your ignorant comment re submarines, what do you think the point of controlling a strategic choke point is? They watch that place like hawks. It's filled with all number of defenses. Even assuming they don't get them all, it's a hell of alot better than none given our current lack of ships. That's the price of having allies who can't carry their own weight. We are over stretched as is.

Looking up recent news and apparently the US, in light of the belief that Turkey is going to be lost as an ally, is trying to convince Greece to start to carry their weight in the place. And Greece is attempting to follow it up despite their still struggling economy.

Decomissioning the Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates was a mistake.

Yes it was.

[The East Marches II]

Because our NATO allies no longer have functioning armies, navies and air forces. It's all correct what you said but in clown world, nations declare victory when they disarm and act like they have moral justice on their side when they get blackmailed with refugees.

And most of those nations are the nations of Western Europe.

Yes they are supposed to the bulkward of NATO. How pathetic they've become.

We wouldn't need the Turks if our other allies weren't functionally worthless outside Poland, Britain and the Baltics.

Greece has actually kept their NATO funding within the limits, their military budget is 2.8 of their GDP.... (It helps that their GDP is pathetic), Greece is actually more like the nations you listed above in that they actually are trying to maintain their military, partly because they hate Turkey and partly because giving people employment in the military is still technically employment.

So your argument doesn't apply to Greece. If anything they're trying to arm up because now they see Turkey as threatening their interests.

It's because their GDP took such a giant shit after 2008 that their stagnant military budget has become 2.8% of GDP. If one number stays the same, and the other drops, that isn't arming up. That's just a sign of how insane the EU's plan for the Greek situation was. I can't wait for Rissotia the communist to defend 40% unemployment and a 25% loss in GDP as a success story, just like the infamous Der Spiegel. As an aside, who knew that EU backing would bring you no military support but it would break your nation? It seems like a bad deal tbh.

NATO has never been about human rights or democracy. Don't make me laugh. We backed coups in Greece and Turkey. We supported the crypto-fascists during the years of lead in Italy and shady political disappearances in other parts of Europe. Your naive view of what the role of a military alliance based around mutual defense and coalition warfare is not conducive to coming correct conclusions.

The all caps in "Supposed" is obvious sarcasm. There's a reason I mentioned the Saudi Arabia package, the west and NATO were always glad to look the other way during the Cold War but since that war ended NATO is now filled with nations that can afford to care about those things.

No, it really isn't filled with nations that can afford to care about those things. It's filled with nations busy killing themselves in the name of our modern religion of guilt and pacifism. They can't even stop the Sultan from flooding them with the refugees they so profess to love. How can they stop Ivan? Pathetic tbh. We (NATO) are weaker now than we ever were. No need to fear, the Germans put their endemic failure of a defense minister in the European comission. This problem will now be transferred to the whole of the EU in November! :^)

We can't afford to lose the Turks with a situation like that. Morals and good feelings are a luxury for strong nations and alliances. We can not afford such self-congradulatory nonsense anymore. We just had 30 years of such which lead to disaster. Really, this on the Kurds for having backed the Turks when they were on their knees and acting as their enforcers. That's why it's Istanbul and not Constantinople. Karma is a bitch.

[Kubra]

Syria is never getting the clay back that Turkey has secured for the safe zone, no matter what happens, short of Syria launching an offensive against Turkey's unlawful occupiation of Syrian Territory which means risking World War 3, there is no real victory here, however by doing the ceasefire this soon they prevent Turkey from annexing all of Northeastern Syria, it's likely however that the occupied territories will face a long term insurgency and the safety of the safe zones will be a lie.

So really the Kurds sold their independence for nothing, and not even a blatent land-grab is enough to mobilise the SAA. Of course the SAA did gained a military airport and some towns so it's not a complete loss for them, but I thought they'd have more pride than to let Turkey take Syrian land like that.

because it wasn't a winnable fightr. Assad can't really press the attack without backers, and going for turkey is real sensitive, so better to put in a small bet, collect, cash out.

If it did come to a full-scale war (rather than passively blocking the Turkish advance) The SAA can't defeat Turkey but they alongside the YPG could have turned it into Turkey's Vietnam- something the Turkish economy and politics would struggle to accept for any long length of time.

Nah, not really. Sunni's can do that, but that's because there's so many potential bodies to throw in. The YPG isn't all that impressive by the numbers, they can go toe to toe with any other light infantry outfits in the region but send in the jets and there's not much they can do. SAA, well, their real muscle would get in trouble if they shot at the turks, sanctions follow.

[Nakena]

US hails Turkish cease-fire; Kurds must vacate border area

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — The U.S. and Turkey agreed Thursday to a cease-fire in the Turks’ deadly attacks on Kurdish fighters in northern Syria, requiring the Kurds to vacate the area in an arrangement that largely solidifies Turkey’s position and aims in the weeklong conflict. The deal includes a conditional halt to American economic sanctions.

After negotiations with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence hailed the five-day cease-fire as the way to end the bloodshed caused by Turkey’s invasion. He remained silent on whether it amounted to a second abandonment of America’s former Kurdish allies in the fight against the Islamic State group.

Turkish troops and Turkish-backed Syrian fighters launched their offensive against Kurdish forces in northern Syria a week ago, two days after President Donald Trump suddenly announced he was withdrawing the U.S. military from the area. Trump was widely criticized for turning on the Kurds, who had taken heavy casualties as partners with the U.S. in fighting IS extremists since 2016.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said the United States had accepted the idea of a “safe zone” long pushed by Turkey, and he insisted Turkish armed forces will control the zone. He also made clear that Turkey will not stop at a previously limited zone; he said Turkish control of the Syrian side of the border must extend all the way to the Iraqi border.

The commander of Kurdish-led forces in Syria, Mazloum Abdi, told Kurdish TV, “We will do whatever we can for the success of the cease-fire agreement.” But one Kurdish official, Razan Hiddo, declared that Kurdish people would refuse to live under Turkish occupation.

Trump had no reservations, hailing “a great day for civilization.”

“Everybody agreed to things that three days ago they would have never agreed to,” he told reporters. “That includes the Kurds. The Kurds are now much more inclined to do what has to be done. Turkey is much more inclined to do what has to be done.”

Trump seemed to endorse the Turkish aim of ridding the Syrian side of the border of the Kurdish fighters whom Turkey deems to be terrorists but who fought against IS on behalf of the U.S. “They had to have it cleaned out,” he said.

Leading U.S. lawmakers were less pleased than Trump.

Sen. Mitt Romney, the Republicans’ presidential nominee in 2012, said he welcomed the cease-fire but wanted to know what America’s role in the region would be and why Turkey was facing no consequences for its invasion.

“Further, the cease-fire does not change the fact that America has abandoned an ally,” he said on the Senate floor.

It was not clear whether the deal means the U.S. military will play a role in enabling or enforcing the cease-fire. Pence said the U.S. would “facilitate” the Kurds’ pullout, but he did not say if that would include the use of American troops.

The Pentagon had no immediate comment.

As Pence was speaking in Ankara, U.S. troops were continuing to board aircraft leaving northern Syria. Officials said a couple of hundred had already departed, with hundreds more consolidated at a few bases waiting to move out.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Trump confidant who has criticized the president’s pullout, said he thinks U.S. troops will be needed as part of an effort to implement and enforce a halt to the fighting. “There’s just no way around it,” he said. “We need to maintain control of the skies” and work with the Kurds.

While the cease-fire seemed likely to temporarily slow legislation in Congress aimed at punishing Turkey and condemning Trump’s U.S. troop withdrawal, lawmakers gave no sign of completely dropping the measures.

Shortly before the announcement of the pause in hostilities, Graham and Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., introduced legislation that would bar U.S. military aid to Turkey, seek to curb foreign arms sales to Ankara and impose sanctions on top Turkish officials unless Turkey withdraws its forces. Those sanctions would include a report on Erdogan’s family assets.

In contrast with Pence’s description of a limited safe zone, the agreement would effectively create a zone of control patrolled by the Turkish military that Ankara wants to stretch for the entire border from the Euphrates River to the Iraqi border, though the agreement did not define the extent of the zone. Turkish forces currently control about a quarter of that length, captured in the past nine days.

The rest is held by the Kurdish-led forces or by the Syrian government military, backed by Russia, which the Kurds invited to move in to shield them from the Turks. None of those parties has much reason to let Turkish forces into the areas.

Sauce

[The Lone Alliance]

SNIP

I notice no one bothered to get Assad's opinion on this supposed ceasefire and considering there are now Syrian troops in northern Syria, and that one part of the Northern Syrian border has remained in Assad hands for most of the war it's likely that this ceasefire isn't going to mean anything.

In order to have an unbroken safe zone that extends all the way to the Iraqi border would require clearing out a large portion of land in Northeastern Syria that has remained in Assad's hands for most of the war.

Turkey is either going to have to work with Assad, which they have refused too, or militarily remove Assad and in this case break the ceasefire.


And Assad isn't going to be too happy with Turkey considering they want to turn the supposed Safe Zone into a Turkish proxy state and fill it full of all the refugees who Assad loyalists will see as traitors.

All in all it's just more desperation and doubling down.

[The Republic of Fore]

1. And making that money requires something that might literally never happen. We can definitely profit from trade with someone else. We *might* profit from trade with the middle east.
2. Fair enough.
3. No not really. They'd have no way of paying rent or purchasing food without a job. People with financial struggles are far more likely to be depressed. So be prepared to see an explosion in suicide.
4. I don't care because as I've said about ten times I have literally zero reason to believe the middle east will ever be stable.

So it's not about saving American lives, it's not about improving America's economy, now it's about not believing that the Middle East can ever be stable. And this might be the stupidest reason you've offered so far. Of course it can be stable. That invading Middle Eastern countries with no plan for what to do after toppling the government hasn't brought stability doesn't mean that stability is impossible.

I take this as a good sign, though. When you're down to such pretending to have such a stupid reason as this then we must be getting closer to the true reason.

What evidence is there that it can be stable? And how long will it take? The middle east is a shithole that's seen centuries of warfare. And it is about saving American lives. Saving them from being wasted on the benefit of foreigners. Literally one American dying for the benefit of another country is worse to me than every kurd being killed. We don't owe any other country a single thing. And whether people die on our roads is irrelevant to me. Most people who die in auto accidents are killed by their own stupidity. That's their issue. Every bad thing that happens on earth isn't our problem to solve. The kurds can solve their own conflict, or not.

[Phoenicaea]

^despotic regimes do stuff and affairs for theirs, not for benefiting countries they oppress, nor for sparing foreign soldiers.

[Maqkaradj]

Not the first or second time they've done this, Turkey loves conquering places and setting up puppet governments that are their proxies, just ask Northern Cyrpus.


Either way it sucks, I just hope the Kurds bleed them quite a bit in the process.


Still I have no respect for any ability for Turkey to be a regional ally or even a member of NATO.

They aren't needed in NATO anymore and at this point I think the best thing would be is to pull any and all support for them and pull out, they're going to end up in Russia's pocket in around 2 or 3 years anyway, might as well bite the bullet and leave.


Still kind of ironic that for all the attempts Syria has ended up pretty much the same as Iraq in results.

Everyone pissed at the west.

They are still needed in NATO until the Western continental countries such as Germany, Netherlands, and France pick up some slack and start pouring cash money into their defence and conscripting people.

[Risottia]

edit: as for your ignorant comment re submarines, what do you think the point of controlling a strategic choke point is? They watch that place like hawks. It's filled with all number of defenses. Even assuming they don't get them all, it's a hell of alot better than none given our current lack of ships. That's the price of having allies who can't carry their own weight. We are over stretched as is.

Decomissioning the Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates was a mistake.

Guess who bought them?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G-class_frigate

[Lamoni]

It sure is impressive how quick you are to shift your rhetoric around from "my sky cloth people are more valuable than your sky cloth people" to "wE hAvE oThEr PrObLeMs To DeAL WiTh!!1! AbAnDoNiNg PeOpLe To Be sLaUgHtErEd iS gOoD!!1!"

1. You are oversimplifying this with the "sky cloth" argument. You just sound like a autistic 14 year old atheist
2. Funny how you supposedly non-interventionist Libertarian Socialist all of a sudden want the US to be the world's policemen

Unofficial warning for trolling. You could have made your point without the "autistic 14 year old atheist" bit. Do not insult your fellow posters.

[The East Marches II]

Decomissioning the Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates was a mistake.

Guess who bought them?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G-class_frigate

Mistakes were made