Turkish military offensive in Syria/Rojava

[Vistulange]

Okay. I'm chill and on board with that explanation.

Still, the whole "genocide" thing looks like it's just "well Turks did 1915, so they're inclined towards genocide, let's go with induction and immediately assume they want to genocide Kurds as well" in NSG-speak which naturally involves plenty of strawmanning and a complete disregard for forces influencing the actors.

It is, except it is not merely NSG speak but that of just about every media outlet.
But we will have to wait and see how many Erdogan will exterminate.

I see that you have conveniently ignored my prior question of "what does Erdoğan get out of it" in lieu of handwaving with "every major media outlet".

Do you not have your own conclusions to draw?

[The Alma Mater]

It is, except it is not merely NSG speak but that of just about every media outlet.
But we will have to wait and see how many Erdogan will exterminate.

I see that you have conveniently ignored my prior question of "what does Erdoğan get out of it" in lieu of handwaving with "every major media outlet"

I have already answered that question: he is seen to be able to do that. That is what he gets out of it.
He after all lives in a society where machismo and "honour" are everything - although the concept of honour is very different.

Do you not have your own conclusions to draw?

Yes. People will die. People will be provoked. And he will get away with it.

[Vistulange]

I see that you have conveniently ignored my prior question of "what does Erdoğan get out of it" in lieu of handwaving with "every major media outlet"

I have already answered that question: he is seen to be able to do that. That is what he gets out of it.
He after all lives in a society where machismo and "honour" are everything - although the concept of honour is very different.

Do you not have your own conclusions to draw?

Yes. People will die. People will be provoked. And he will get away with it.

Thank you for your deep, deep insight as to how Turkish politics and society work.

[An Alan Smithee Nation]

Technically, the general mood is "genocide =bad".

I still haven't had anybody tell me precisely what Erdoğan gets out of genociding Kurds, though. Unless you think he's in it just to make people cry, at which point I really don't know what to say.

Isn't the risk to him that Turkey would lose territory if the Kurds ever get a Kurdish homeland.

I suppose also the idea, that some people seem to go for on here, that homogeneous countries are a good idea rather than an unrealistic one.

[Kubra]

I dunno about "genocide", but as you know kurds since the formation of Turkey have generally been a rebellious minority in a country that has tried very hard to be very french in terms of how to views its central culture. Having kurds on the border in cahoots with the rebellious ones inside the borders is a security threat, no matter how you spin it. It's why Turkey is generally amiable with the iraqi kurds that aren't into the whole ocalan thing.

Okay. I'm chill and on board with that explanation.

Still, the whole "genocide" thing looks like it's just "well Turks did 1915, so they're inclined towards genocide, let's go with induction and immediately assume they want to genocide Kurds as well" in NSG-speak which naturally involves plenty of strawmanning and a complete disregard for forces influencing the actors.

There's some twitchiness insofar as the syrian war has been a largely demographic war, and its outcome will be a matter of shifting demographic boundaries. Erdogan's plan involves having the FSA man that buffer and resettling refugees, largely arab, into it. This is an obvious attempt to effect demographic change on the border away from kurdish and towards arab, making it more difficult for the kurdish groups inside to receive and send support. It probably won't result in genocide, but twitchy folks come to the worst conclusions, calm heads just don't prevail.
I mean hell, think of the yugoslavians. They're all rather decent folks, but the spectre of balkan atrocities lead to, well, balkan atrocities. Everyone figured the other was out to get em, and had to get em first.

....and all that said, it doesn't quite make the whole thing right. Sure, it's not lining folks up against the wall and having em shot, but scaring folks out with artillery so you can have other folks move in is downright distasteful. I plead the third, damnit.

[Vistulange]

I still haven't had anybody tell me precisely what Erdoğan gets out of genociding Kurds, though. Unless you think he's in it just to make people cry, at which point I really don't know what to say.

Isn't the risk to him that Turkey would lose territory if the Kurds ever get a Kurdish homeland.

I suppose also the idea, that some people seem to go for on here, that homogeneous countries are a good idea rather than an unrealistic one.

Well, yes, that is indeed a risk, and your argument is indeed a valid one. However, a counter-argument can be made in that pushing a minority group too far will lead to secessionist movements. It could very well be this reason that pushed the very same Erdoğan accused of committing genocide today to implement the "Solution Process" in Turkey, an unprecedented and revolutionary move in regards to both the Kurdish issue and Turkish politics as a whole, changing the way politics flowed.

Okay. I'm chill and on board with that explanation.

Still, the whole "genocide" thing looks like it's just "well Turks did 1915, so they're inclined towards genocide, let's go with induction and immediately assume they want to genocide Kurds as well" in NSG-speak which naturally involves plenty of strawmanning and a complete disregard for forces influencing the actors.

There's some twitchiness insofar as the syrian war has been a largely demographic war, and its outcome will be a matter of shifting demographic boundaries. Erdogan's plan involves having the FSA man that buffer and resettling refugees, largely arab, into it. This is an obvious attempt to effect demographic change on the border away from kurdish and towards arab, making it more difficult for the kurdish groups inside to receive and send support. It probably won't result in genocide, but twitchy folks come to the worst conclusions, calm heads just don't prevail.
I mean hell, think of the yugoslavians. They're all rather decent folks, but the spectre of balkan atrocities lead to, well, balkan atrocities. Everyone figured the other was out to get em, and had to get em first.

....and all that said, it doesn't quite make the whole thing right. Sure, it's not lining folks up against the wall and having em shot, but scaring folks out with artillery so you can have other folks move in is downright distasteful. I plead the third, damnit.

Again, I agree with you on practically all fronts there. The thing I have a problem with is the word "genocide" being thrown around with such carelessness and thoughtlessness.

[Page]

I dunno about "genocide", but as you know kurds since the formation of Turkey have generally been a rebellious minority in a country that has tried very hard to be very french in terms of how to views its central culture. Having kurds on the border in cahoots with the rebellious ones inside the borders is a security threat, no matter how you spin it. It's why Turkey is generally amiable with the iraqi kurds that aren't into the whole ocalan thing.

Okay. I'm chill and on board with that explanation.

Still, the whole "genocide" thing looks like it's just "well Turks did 1915, so they're inclined towards genocide, let's go with induction and immediately assume they want to genocide Kurds as well" in NSG-speak which naturally involves plenty of strawmanning and a complete disregard for forces influencing the actors.

To this day, Turkey refuses to apologize for let alone acknowledge the Armenian Genocide. That is a good reason to be concerned.

[Vistulange]

Okay. I'm chill and on board with that explanation.

Still, the whole "genocide" thing looks like it's just "well Turks did 1915, so they're inclined towards genocide, let's go with induction and immediately assume they want to genocide Kurds as well" in NSG-speak which naturally involves plenty of strawmanning and a complete disregard for forces influencing the actors.

To this day, Turkey refuses to apologize for let alone acknowledge the Armenian Genocide. That is a good reason to be concerned.

That makes sense when you ignore the reasons behind denial, and interpret it as condoning the Armenian Genocide, which is frankly an easier route to take, to villify Turkey and simplify the world into black-and-white, than to question the "why", and then come to conclusions.

There are certain reasons I believe are behind the state policy of genocide denial, but judging from the general flow of the thread, they are not important nor particularly welcome in the first place.

Also, there's a difference between "concerned about genocide" and "Turks are committing genocide [again]".

[Pasong Tirad]

A plan to ethnically cleanse the Turko-Syrian border would be closer to the truth.

[Lost Memories]

Technically, the general mood is "genocide =bad".

I still haven't had anybody tell me precisely what Erdoğan gets out of genociding Kurds, though. Unless you think he's in it just to make people cry, at which point I really don't know what to say.

Persecution and the fear of a kurdish state to be born, which as a neighboring state to Turkey, a Kurdish state would likely be not very friendly, given the history of bad treatment of Turks toward Kurds. A kurdish state would also mean Turkey losing a chunk of its territory. (reason:fear, territorial integrity)

Then there is the load of displaced syrians from the not-yet finished civil war who are currently blocked in Turkey, which either can be left free to move en masse to europe, or be housed in some way.
That's an other reason publicly used by Turkey for its attack. Remove terrorists, house displaced syrians, all fit nicely, except the ones being removed are the Kurds. While actual isis members are getting released during the chaos. (reason:incompetence or power influence by isis)

Also, in the most forgiving stance possible toward Erdogan, being remembered in history as the turkish president under which Turkey lost a chunk of it's territory is still pretty bad, personally for him. (reason:shame)


There is a difference between genocide and ethic cleansing, even if they run pretty close. Wiping a strip of land of a specific ethnic group (kurds) to implant a different group, is ethnic cleansing. That currently happening is indisputable.

[The East Marches II]

Turkey has every right to do this.

That is where you are wrong.

How many divisions do you have? That's really what determines right and wrong on the international stage.

[An Alan Smithee Nation]

Trump's sanctions on Turkey seem to be having absolutely no effect whatsoever.

Not a surprise to me as all Trump's foreign policy interventions do nothing but piss off US allies, and make the US look weaker than they were.

[The East Marches II]

Trump's sanctions on Turkey seem to be having absolutely no effect whatsoever.

Not a surprise to me as all Trump's foreign policy interventions do nothing but piss off US allies, and make the US look weaker than they were.

Perhaps that was his intention with the so called sanctions? He could have done something substantive.

[Samadhi]

Yeah you know how there's that hillbilly part of America that's like north of Florida. And really hates non whites.
And you know how America owes the Syrian Kurds a favour.
And you know how hilarious it would be to watch racists try and intimidate the people who fucked Isis with a rake would be?

"Y'all gots the wrong god, y'all gots the wrong skin, oh hell yalls gots the rpgs. Ah have a nice day y'all."

[An Alan Smithee Nation]

Trump's sanctions on Turkey seem to be having absolutely no effect whatsoever.

Not a surprise to me as all Trump's foreign policy interventions do nothing but piss off US allies, and make the US look weaker than they were.

Perhaps that was his intention with the so called sanctions? He could have done something substantive.

Or maybe he is just clueless at international politics.

[Vistulange]

I still haven't had anybody tell me precisely what Erdoğan gets out of genociding Kurds, though. Unless you think he's in it just to make people cry, at which point I really don't know what to say.

Persecution and the fear of a kurdish state to be born, which as a neighboring state to Turkey, a Kurdish state would likely be not very friendly, given the history of bad treatment of Turks toward Kurds. A kurdish state would also mean Turkey losing a chunk of its territory. (reason:fear, territorial integrity)

Then there is the load of displaced syrians from the not-yet finished civil war who are currently blocked in Turkey, which either can be left free to move en masse to europe, or be housed in some way.
That's an other reason publicly used by Turkey for its attack. Remove terrorists, house displaced syrians, all fit nicely, except the ones being removed are the Kurds. While actual isis members are getting released during the chaos. (reason:incompetence or power influence by isis)

Also, in the most forgiving stance possible toward Erdogan, being remembered in history as the turkish president under which Turkey lost a chunk of it's territory is still pretty bad, personally for him. (reason:shame)

There is a difference between genocide and ethic cleansing, even if they run pretty close. Wiping a strip of land of a specific ethnic group (kurds) to implant a different group, is ethnic cleansing. That currently happening is indisputable.

Again, though, this doesn't explain why he embarked on the Solution Process back in 2013-2015, when he came - perhaps - closer to solving the Kurdish issue in Turkey without losing territory. Certainly a lot closer than the 1990's and early 2000's which were marked by warfare, and the late 2010's which are also marked by warfare.

And I argue that contrary to the belief on this forum that it's because Erdoğan is a tinpot dictator who just genocides Kurds for an incredibly debatable "advantage" with an added sauce of "Turks genocide people anyway, let's go on with that line of reasoning", it's primarily due to domestic political concerns, namely the requirement to pander to the MHP base which is currently in favour of the AKP. The problem with this argument is that since not many people on this forum do not follow Turkish politics - rightfully so, though still problematic in this context - it's difficult to get people past "yeah nah he's just genocidal".

The falsification would be of this manner: Demonstrating that Erdoğan, free of the need to have the MHP supporting his coalition and without a nationalist-oriented coalition ally to replace the MHP, continues to pursue aggressive policies against Kurds and pro-Kurdish parties. This would falsify my argument, which I would be happy to accept, though admittedly I'd rather not see Kurds being oppressed. There are two things that can happen that can break up the seemingly happy marriage between Erdoğan and the MHP.

1) Erdoğan decides that the MHP isn't a good coalition partner any longer.

This basically implies that in regards to domestic politics, the MHP base is no longer sufficient enough to keep support for Erdoğan at an acceptable level. We are already seeing semblances of this line of thought with the debate about lowering the necessary electoral threshold to 40%, with the support for the AKP and Erdoğan gradually diminishing. We have not yet seen clear signs that the alliance between Erdoğan and the MHP are deteriorating right now.

2) The MHP decides that their interests are not served by allying Erdoğan.

This is the reverse of the first point. Essentially, Devlet Bahçeli could very well decide that going with the opposition as he did prior to 2015 would serve him better politically, and perhaps catapult him into a better position than he is right now. Additionally, Bahçeli's health is in poor condition. Should he retire, or die in office, the MHP could perhaps elect a leader who is not as Erdoğan-oriented as Bahçeli.

Should either of the two happen, Erdoğan will need to find an ally: The AKP by itself is no longer enough to keep the system and government up on a legitimacy and legislative sense. There, we also see two options:

1) Erdoğan allies with the HDP.

This is basically a return to the 2013-2015 state of affairs, with the nationalist MHP on the opposition stands and the pro-Kurdish HDP tacitly giving support for Erdoğan's policies. I see this as largely unlikely to happen, but Turkish politics have surprised me in the past - namely with the MHP and HDP's sudden turnaround - so I cannot in good faith say that this is impossible.

2) Erdoğan finds a new ally.

And our prime candidate for this "new ally" is the nationalist İYİP. An splinter party from the MHP, they are largely the same in regards to ideology, albeit a bit more watered down and a bit more appealing to the younger demographic, and not as explicitly anti-Kurdish; but still quite nationalist. Erdoğan has indeed been making overtures towards them, though their leader Meral Akşener (oddly enough, a woman in Turkish nationalist politics) is quite firmly on the opposition side. Whether or not she can hold her position as party leader is debatable, though. She has however fended off some leadership challenges in quite a strong manner.

[The East Marches II]

Perhaps that was his intention with the so called sanctions? He could have done something substantive.

Or maybe he is just clueless at international politics.

You are a very generous man. It does you credit.

[Duhon]

Technically, the general mood is "genocide =bad".

I still haven't had anybody tell me precisely what Erdoğan gets out of genociding Kurds, though. Unless you think he's in it just to make people cry, at which point I really don't know what to say.

what did shitler get out of the holocaust?

[Risottia]

I still haven't had anybody tell me precisely what Erdoğan gets out of genociding Kurds, though. Unless you think he's in it just to make people cry, at which point I really don't know what to say.

what did shitler get out of the holocaust?

Popularity, real estate and slave labour.

[Duhon]

what did shitler get out of the holocaust?

Popularity, real estate and slave labour.

said slave labor would've been better off alive than dead, yet even when the third reich desperately needed the labor, ahead it went and offed the lot anyway

which says the motivation is not at all rational and could not be constrained by rational methods, if everything else didn't tip you off to the irrationality of the whole thing

now compare and contrast

[Vistulange]

Popularity, real estate and slave labour.

said slave labor would've been better off alive than dead, yet even when the third reich desperately needed the labor, ahead it went and offed the lot anyway

which says the motivation is not at all rational and could not be constrained by rational methods, if everything else didn't tip you off to the irrationality of the whole thing

now compare and contrast

In Hitler's case - and goodness it's taken this long to invoke Godwin - we see a clear ideational motive to commit genocide against not only Jews, but also other segments of society such as homosexuals and disabled people.

Not so, with Erdoğan, as I've argued throughout this thread, and you've seemingly ignored.

[Duhon]

said slave labor would've been better off alive than dead, yet even when the third reich desperately needed the labor, ahead it went and offed the lot anyway

which says the motivation is not at all rational and could not be constrained by rational methods, if everything else didn't tip you off to the irrationality of the whole thing

now compare and contrast

In Hitler's case - and goodness it's taken this long to invoke Godwin - we see a clear ideational motive to commit genocide against not only Jews, but also other segments of society such as homosexuals and disabled people.

Not so, with Erdoğan, as I've argued throughout this thread, and you've seemingly ignored.

i've seemingly ignored it as i'm not here looking at all the replies all the time

of course i have replied earlier when i questioned you about erdogan's motivations for launching the offensive now, but needless to say i don't exactly believe everything you say that i have caught sight of, especially now that the turkish military and their paidfors are now in the thick of things killing off who they can

[Vistulange]

In Hitler's case - and goodness it's taken this long to invoke Godwin - we see a clear ideational motive to commit genocide against not only Jews, but also other segments of society such as homosexuals and disabled people.

Not so, with Erdoğan, as I've argued throughout this thread, and you've seemingly ignored.

i've seemingly ignored it as i'm not here looking at all the replies all the time

of course i have replied earlier when i questioned you about erdogan's motivations for launching the offensive now, but needless to say i don't exactly believe everything you say that i have caught sight of, especially now that the turkish military and their paidfors are now in the thick of things killing off who they can

You're free to not believe what I've said, obviously. But since I'm not exactly seeing an argument, I'm also free to think that you aren't seeing the whole picture.

[Nea Byzantia]

In Hitler's case - and goodness it's taken this long to invoke Godwin - we see a clear ideational motive to commit genocide against not only Jews, but also other segments of society such as homosexuals and disabled people.

Not so, with Erdoğan, as I've argued throughout this thread, and you've seemingly ignored.

i've seemingly ignored it as i'm not here looking at all the replies all the time

of course i have replied earlier when i questioned you about erdogan's motivations for launching the offensive now, but needless to say i don't exactly believe everything you say that i have caught sight of, especially now that the turkish military and their paidfors are now in the thick of things killing off who they can

Also, you seem to be looking to impose the narrative of Victim vs Oppressor on this situation; when its frankly, not that simple. Considering the terrorist activities the Kurdish organizations have been involved in, the Turks have every right to take action; and taking action against Rojava and SDF, does not necessitate that there will be genocide against the Kurds as a whole.

[SD_Film Artists]

i've seemingly ignored it as i'm not here looking at all the replies all the time

of course i have replied earlier when i questioned you about erdogan's motivations for launching the offensive now, but needless to say i don't exactly believe everything you say that i have caught sight of, especially now that the turkish military and their paidfors are now in the thick of things killing off who they can

Considering the terrorist activities the Kurdish organizations have been involved in

According to Erdogan. Forgive me if I don't believe the word of someone who tries oppress journalists both inside and outside his country.