2019-2020 US Election Megathread III: Biden VS Biden

[Valrifell]

I predict that Trump will win all states he won in 2016 plus Maine and New Hampshire if Biden, Warren, or Buttigieg are the nominee.

This is a goofy prediction.

[Valrifell]

This is the only correct electoral map.

Finally a correct opinion.

[Gormwood]

This is the only correct electoral map.

Finally a correct opinion.

Please Clap.

[San Lumen]

Finally a correct opinion.

Please Clap.

Applauds

[Czechostan]

Since everyone is sharing map predictions, here's one of my more conservative predictions of how it might go if it's Bernie vs Trump:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/oPWNo

A very generous prediction. I foresee the map as looking more like this:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/kLAQZ

[Ngelmish]

Yeah, as a resident Hoosier, the idea that Indiana would flip for Sanders (or really any Democratic nominee) is totally ludicrous. Especially if Mike Pence is still on the ticket. People misread Obama's '08 win -- that was lightning in a bottle.

As for delusional and unprovable GE election predictions, I think the map is going to be a lot closer in electoral votes, closer to 2004 than any of our subsequent elections.

[Idzequitch]

Honestly, I look at the electoral map and get worried. I think if I were to find a semi-likely scenario where Trump loses, this map seems like the best path.

Disclaimer: It's early and things change. I may be totally wrong In the end, but here's what I think currently.

In the elections I can remember, OH, NC, VA, amd FL were touted as the most important swing states. While all four of those are still varying levels of up in the air right now, I don't think that's the set to look at anymore.

In my view, the most vital and important states now are FL, PA, MI, and WI. If Trump takes FL, I think the Dems will probably need to flip all of the other three. Alternatively, if the Dems flip FL, they may be able to get away with only one of the other three. If Trump takes both PA and FL, the Dem is likely in major trouble.

I see IA, OH, NC, AZ, and GA as likely Trump wins.

I see CO, NV, NH, MN, and VA as likely Dem wins.

[Page]

Since everyone is sharing map predictions, here's one of my more conservative predictions of how it might go if it's Bernie vs Trump:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/oPWNo

This is almost the same as my Sanders vs. Trump prediction except I truly think Bernie Sanders would narrowly take Georgia through a combination of a strong black vote, population growth in Atlanta, and previously disillusioned white working class coming out to vote. Only Bernie can do this, no other Dem has a shot at Georgia.

At this point, Warren could win but of the swing states she won't get Iowa, Indiana, and Arizona.

Biden, it will come down to the Midwest and could go either way. Biden would certainly win the popular vote by millions but he might lose the EC just like Clinton. I'd expect a similar scenario for Buttigieg but with even worse odds than Biden.

[Idzequitch]

Since everyone is sharing map predictions, here's one of my more conservative predictions of how it might go if it's Bernie vs Trump:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/oPWNo

This is almost the same as my Sanders vs. Trump prediction except I truly think Bernie Sanders would narrowly take Georgia through a combination of a strong black vote, population growth in Atlanta, and previously disillusioned white working class coming out to vote. Only Bernie can do this, no other Dem has a shot at Georgia.

At this point, Warren could win but of the swing states she won't get Iowa, Indiana, and Arizona.

Biden, it will come down to the Midwest and could go either way. Biden would certainly win the popular vote by millions but he might lose the EC just like Clinton. I'd expect a similar scenario for Buttigieg but with even worse odds than Biden.

It's incredible to me that people on the Dem side are willing to be this overconfident again just three years removed from 2016....

[Talvezout]

All things considered, I'm betting that this is gonna be the most likeliest result of the 2020 election. Trump wins a narrow EC victory, while losing by as much as 5 million pop votes (very narrow victories in AZ, NC, IA, GA, and WI)

Down the ballot, Dems hold the House (like 1 or two seats are gained, as Petersen and Van Drew flip to Reps but GA-7, IL-13, NC-2, NC-6, TX-24, TX-23, TX-22, TX-21 and TX-31 all flip to Dems)

Senate, Democrats make a gain of 1-2 seats, or possibly tie the Senate (Jones's seat flips to Reps, while Gardner, McSally, (and possibly Collins and Tillis) all flip to Dems)

Governor's, Dems manage to tie control of Governors (Sununu wins by a narrow margin, while Dems hold Montana and narrowly win West Virginia)

I also have more political wonkery, but that's for a another day. I can also explain some of my decisions if needed

---

In other words, Dems narrowly lose to Trump but build on their suburban gains.

[San Lumen]

(Image)

All things considered, I'm betting that this is gonna be the most likeliest result of the 2020 election. Trump wins a narrow EC victory, while losing by as much as 5 million pop votes (very narrow victories in AZ, NC, IA, GA, and WI)

Down the ballot, Dems hold the House (like 1 or two seats are gained, as Petersen and Van Drew flip to Reps but GA-7, IL-13, NC-2, NC-6, TX-24, TX-23, TX-22, TX-21 and TX-31 all flip to Dems)

Senate, Democrats make a gain of 1-2 seats, or possibly tie the Senate (Jones's seat flips to Reps, while Gardner, McSally, (and possibly Collins and Tillis) all flip to Dems)

Governor's, Dems manage to tie control of Governors (Sununu wins by a narrow margin, while Dems hold Montana and narrowly win West Virginia)

I also have more political wonkery, but that's for a another day. I can also explain some of my decisions if needed

---

In other words, Dems narrowly lose to Trump but build on their suburban gains.

If people in Madison and Milwaukee get off their butts the latter especially Wisconsin will flip

[Zurkerx]

Since everyone is sharing map predictions, here's one of my more conservative predictions of how it might go if it's Bernie vs Trump:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/oPWNo

A very generous prediction. I foresee the map as looking more like this:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/kLAQZ

Yours is much more plausible but I still have doubts (at the moment) that a Democrat can win in North Carolina or Ohio, with the latter becoming increasingly reddish. I think once we have the nominee, we'll be able to focus much more on who can win what States.

Honestly, I look at the electoral map and get worried. I think if I were to find a semi-likely scenario where Trump loses, this map seems like the best path.

Disclaimer: It's early and things change. I may be totally wrong In the end, but here's what I think currently.

In the elections I can remember, OH, NC, VA, amd FL were touted as the most important swing states. While all four of those are still varying levels of up in the air right now, I don't think that's the set to look at anymore.

In my view, the most vital and important states now are FL, PA, MI, and WI. If Trump takes FL, I think the Dems will probably need to flip all of the other three. Alternatively, if the Dems flip FL, they may be able to get away with only one of the other three. If Trump takes both PA and FL, the Dem is likely in major trouble.

I see IA, OH, NC, AZ, and GA as likely Trump wins.

I see CO, NV, NH, MN, and VA as likely Dem wins.

Yeah, FL, PA, MI, and WI are the States to aim for now and I do agree with the States Trump/Dem are likely to win. And yes, they'll need one of the Rust Belt States if they win Florida, which shouldn't be hard: I see Michigan going blue this time.

This is almost the same as my Sanders vs. Trump prediction except I truly think Bernie Sanders would narrowly take Georgia through a combination of a strong black vote, population growth in Atlanta, and previously disillusioned white working class coming out to vote. Only Bernie can do this, no other Dem has a shot at Georgia.

At this point, Warren could win but of the swing states she won't get Iowa, Indiana, and Arizona.

Biden, it will come down to the Midwest and could go either way. Biden would certainly win the popular vote by millions but he might lose the EC just like Clinton. I'd expect a similar scenario for Buttigieg but with even worse odds than Biden.

It's incredible to me that people on the Dem side are willing to be this overconfident again just three years removed from 2016....

It seems some haven't learn their lessons from 2016. It's also the same lunacy that some Trump supporters hold: their respective candidate will win in a landslide. It's quite clear that for some, they hold the outlook of AOC, who thinks and views the entire country is somehow progressive based on her district. Thus, it's better to see what each individual State looks and stands rather than relying on national polls because these "progressive" policies have many layers of how far people want to go, especially on issues like healthcare and all.

[San Lumen]

A very generous prediction. I foresee the map as looking more like this:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/kLAQZ

Yours is much more plausible but I still have doubts (at the moment) that a Democrat can win in North Carolina or Ohio, with the latter becoming increasingly reddish. I think once we have the nominee, we'll be able to focus much more on who can win what States.

Honestly, I look at the electoral map and get worried. I think if I were to find a semi-likely scenario where Trump loses, this map seems like the best path.

Disclaimer: It's early and things change. I may be totally wrong In the end, but here's what I think currently.

In the elections I can remember, OH, NC, VA, amd FL were touted as the most important swing states. While all four of those are still varying levels of up in the air right now, I don't think that's the set to look at anymore.

In my view, the most vital and important states now are FL, PA, MI, and WI. If Trump takes FL, I think the Dems will probably need to flip all of the other three. Alternatively, if the Dems flip FL, they may be able to get away with only one of the other three. If Trump takes both PA and FL, the Dem is likely in major trouble.

I see IA, OH, NC, AZ, and GA as likely Trump wins.

I see CO, NV, NH, MN, and VA as likely Dem wins.

Yeah, FL, PA, MI, and WI are the States to aim for now and I do agree with the States Trump/Dem are likely to win. And yes, they'll need one of the Rust Belt States if they win Florida, which shouldn't be hard: I see Michigan going blue this time.

It's incredible to me that people on the Dem side are willing to be this overconfident again just three years removed from 2016....

It seems some haven't learn their lessons from 2016. It's also the same lunacy that some Trump supporters hold: their respective candidate will win in a landslide. It's quite clear that for some, they hold the outlook of AOC, who thinks and views the entire country is somehow progressive based on her district. Thus, it's better to see what each individual State looks and stands rather than relying on national polls because these "progressive" policies have many layers of how far people want to go, especially on issues like healthcare and all.

I find it hard to see Trump getting Michigan or Pennsylvania again. Wisconsin is the one that worries me. It will depend on people in Madison and Milwaukee getting off their butts. Milwaukee especially

[Zurkerx]

Elizabeth Warren targets Buttigieg and Biden as she seeks to regain momentum in Iowa.

Hmm, just what I thought. She was doing good in the beginning but her passiveness couldn't sustain her momentum as she fluctuates between 2nd and 4th now. That is despite her announcing her own healthcare plan, which she tip-toed on the issue for months. It's good she's going on the attack but it might be a bit too late. We shall see how she does in the debate.

[Jerzylvania]

(Image)

All things considered, I'm betting that this is gonna be the most likeliest result of the 2020 election. Trump wins a narrow EC victory, while losing by as much as 5 million pop votes (very narrow victories in AZ, NC, IA, GA, and WI)

Down the ballot, Dems hold the House (like 1 or two seats are gained, as Petersen and Van Drew flip to Reps but GA-7, IL-13, NC-2, NC-6, TX-24, TX-23, TX-22, TX-21 and TX-31 all flip to Dems)

Senate, Democrats make a gain of 1-2 seats, or possibly tie the Senate (Jones's seat flips to Reps, while Gardner, McSally, (and possibly Collins and Tillis) all flip to Dems)

Governor's, Dems manage to tie control of Governors (Sununu wins by a narrow margin, while Dems hold Montana and narrowly win West Virginia)

I also have more political wonkery, but that's for a another day. I can also explain some of my decisions if needed

---

In other words, Dems narrowly lose to Trump but build on their suburban gains.

Your map is close but Trump also loses IA and WI and is not reelected.

[San Lumen]

(Image)

All things considered, I'm betting that this is gonna be the most likeliest result of the 2020 election. Trump wins a narrow EC victory, while losing by as much as 5 million pop votes (very narrow victories in AZ, NC, IA, GA, and WI)

Down the ballot, Dems hold the House (like 1 or two seats are gained, as Petersen and Van Drew flip to Reps but GA-7, IL-13, NC-2, NC-6, TX-24, TX-23, TX-22, TX-21 and TX-31 all flip to Dems)

Senate, Democrats make a gain of 1-2 seats, or possibly tie the Senate (Jones's seat flips to Reps, while Gardner, McSally, (and possibly Collins and Tillis) all flip to Dems)

Governor's, Dems manage to tie control of Governors (Sununu wins by a narrow margin, while Dems hold Montana and narrowly win West Virginia)

I also have more political wonkery, but that's for a another day. I can also explain some of my decisions if needed

---

In other words, Dems narrowly lose to Trump but build on their suburban gains.

Your map is close but Trump also loses IA and WI and is not reelected.

if turnout in Dane and Milwaukee county is like what we got last year Trump likely loses the state narrowly

[Ngelmish]

Since everyone is sharing map predictions, here's one of my more conservative predictions of how it might go if it's Bernie vs Trump:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/oPWNo

This is almost the same as my Sanders vs. Trump prediction except I truly think Bernie Sanders would narrowly take Georgia through a combination of a strong black vote, population growth in Atlanta, and previously disillusioned white working class coming out to vote. Only Bernie can do this, no other Dem has a shot at Georgia.

At this point, Warren could win but of the swing states she won't get Iowa, Indiana, and Arizona.

Biden, it will come down to the Midwest and could go either way. Biden would certainly win the popular vote by millions but he might lose the EC just like Clinton. I'd expect a similar scenario for Buttigieg but with even worse odds than Biden.

While your typical ideological need to overestimate Sanders' electoral appeal is wrong as usual (and no, it's nothing to do with policy, in his case his weaknesses are political) I really just have to reemphasize, Indiana is not a swing state. Not by a long shot.

[Perisno]

Warren is starting to drop, she has reached her peak, a lot of most recent polls have her at 10-11%. Buttigieg may keep rising, but I think he's gonna drop soon as well. A silver tongue can only do so much for a candidate who has so little substance. Yang is doing better than most people think, many polls have him anywhere from 2, to 11 percent. He's a definite dark horse, his support is only growing, and he plans on being aggressive in the next debate. Bernie is also on the rise, polling in first place in a most recent polls. From what I can tell, the race will be Buttigieg v Biden v Bernie v Yang. I think Bernie is likeliest to win the nomination however, and would probably win over Trump.

[Gormwood]

Man, so many going "Help me Bernie-Wan Kenobi, you're our only hope." And yet Clinton was howled at for supposedly being coronated.

[Zurkerx]

Man, so many going "Help me Bernie-Wan Kenobi, you're our only hope." And yet Clinton was howled at for supposedly being coronated.

Ideologs have an interesting interpretation of their preferred candidate, whether it be Sanders or Clinton. Of course, Sanders people hate Clinton so to them, the crown isn't deserving to such a moderate. Sanders has a shot but we shall see what he can do in these next two months.

[Cannot think of a name]

Man, so many going "Help me Bernie-Wan Kenobi, you're our only hope." And yet Clinton was howled at for supposedly being coronated.

Dammit get your Star Wars analogies straight, they're giving me nerd twitch. Kenobi didn't lead the rebellion (even if he was a general in the Republic during the Clone Wars) and wasn't asked for a leadership position. They just wanted the Jedi back.

[Perisno]

Man, so many going "Help me Bernie-Wan Kenobi, you're our only hope." And yet Clinton was howled at for supposedly being coronated.

Dammit get your Star Wars analogies straight, they're giving me nerd twitch. Kenobi didn't lead the rebellion (even if he was a general in the Republic during the Clone Wars) and wasn't asked for a leadership position. They just wanted the Jedi back.

Leia still asked for Obi-Wan Kenobi's help.

[Cannot think of a name]

Dammit get your Star Wars analogies straight, they're giving me nerd twitch. Kenobi didn't lead the rebellion (even if he was a general in the Republic during the Clone Wars) and wasn't asked for a leadership position. They just wanted the Jedi back.

Leia still asked for Obi-Wan Kenobi's help.

Yeah, but he's reaching for the 'chosen one' vibe and that's strictly Skywalker.

[Major-Tom]

Since everyone is sharing map predictions, here's one of my more conservative predictions of how it might go if it's Bernie vs Trump:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/oPWNo

This is a fantasy at best, an absolute parody of electoral politics at worst.

[Talvezout]

(Image)

All things considered, I'm betting that this is gonna be the most likeliest result of the 2020 election. Trump wins a narrow EC victory, while losing by as much as 5 million pop votes (very narrow victories in AZ, NC, IA, GA, and WI)

Down the ballot, Dems hold the House (like 1 or two seats are gained, as Petersen and Van Drew flip to Reps but GA-7, IL-13, NC-2, NC-6, TX-24, TX-23, TX-22, TX-21 and TX-31 all flip to Dems)

Senate, Democrats make a gain of 1-2 seats, or possibly tie the Senate (Jones's seat flips to Reps, while Gardner, McSally, (and possibly Collins and Tillis) all flip to Dems)

Governor's, Dems manage to tie control of Governors (Sununu wins by a narrow margin, while Dems hold Montana and narrowly win West Virginia)

I also have more political wonkery, but that's for a another day. I can also explain some of my decisions if needed

---

In other words, Dems narrowly lose to Trump but build on their suburban gains.

Your map is close but Trump also loses IA and WI and is not reelected.

Yeah, I have a feeling the map is gonna be like that pretty much. The only questions is who wins WI, IA, PA, AZ, and NE-2. Those states (and district) could very much determine the election.

Also honestly, it's gonna be hard for any party to win in a landslide like 64'/72'/80'/84'. Politics is way more partisan and stratified, barring something like David Duke somehow getting nominated for one of the two main parties.