LWDT 8: Hitting the Marx

[Totally Not OEP]

Yes, because Hindsight is indeed 20/20. We now have access to the history of both sides to allow us to form an educated opinion on how the operation would’ve unfolded.

Considering you think the Nazis had a superior industrial capacity compared to the Allies, among other hilariously wrong things, I'm gonna go ahead and say you're not actually forming an educated opinion on the matter, just that you're pretending to.

I have argued that the Germans had a superior industrial capacity to the USSR, something but Paul Kennedy and Adam Tooze agree with. Regardless, I’m not sure what that has to do with the subject at hand.

[Torrocca]

Considering you think the Nazis had a superior industrial capacity compared to the Allies, among other hilariously wrong things, I'm gonna go ahead and say you're not actually forming an educated opinion on the matter, just that you're pretending to.

I have argued that the Germans had a superior industrial capacity to the USSR, something but Paul Kennedy and Adam Tooze agree with. Regardless, I’m not sure what that has to do with the subject at hand.

It's relevant as a showing of how your beliefs regarding things like an Axis victory hinge entirely on factual wrongness and fantasies.

[Kowani]

I firmly feel we should've attacked the Soviet Union in 1945 while we still had the conventional and nuclear advantage over the Red Army.

Your shitty fanfiction aside…

[Northern Davincia]

I firmly feel we should've attacked the Soviet Union in 1945 while we still had the conventional and nuclear advantage over the Red Army.

Firmly believing in the fantastical grandeur of wantonly killing millions of people in a bullshit hypothetical war is a patently stupid belief.

Are you distinguishing between civilians and soldiers of the Red Army? There was much to gain: the liberation of eastern Europe, the prevention of the Cold War and the rise of puppet dictatorships, and an early establishment of American hegemony across the globe.

[Crysuko]

Considering you think the Nazis had a superior industrial capacity compared to the Allies, among other hilariously wrong things, I'm gonna go ahead and say you're not actually forming an educated opinion on the matter, just that you're pretending to.

I have argued that the Germans had a superior industrial capacity to the USSR, something but Paul Kennedy and Adam Tooze agree with. Regardless, I’m not sure what that has to do with the subject at hand.

I audibly laughed

[Totally Not OEP]

I have argued that the Germans had a superior industrial capacity to the USSR, something but Paul Kennedy and Adam Tooze agree with. Regardless, I’m not sure what that has to do with the subject at hand.

It's relevant as a showing of how your beliefs regarding things like an Axis victory hinge entirely on factual wrongness and fantasies.

You will need to explain, then, how a Cold War confrontation has anything to do with a WWII era issue. You have indicated that you’re a recent High School graduate; if this is accurate you need to learn how to engage in academic debates in the collegiate realm and you do that via citations, not personal attacks or whataboutisms.

[Torrocca]

It's relevant as a showing of how your beliefs regarding things like an Axis victory hinge entirely on factual wrongness and fantasies.

You will need to explain, then, how a Cold War confrontation has anything to do with a WWII era issue. You have indicated that you’re a recent High School graduate; if this is accurate you need to learn how to engage in academic debates in the collegiate realm and you do that via citations, not personal attacks or whataboutisms.

I'm not gonna bother repeating myself, since you obviously don't care to listen. I explained why I brought it up and why it's relevant. The people who care to argue in good faith will understand why.

[Bear Stearns]

Clearly, you have a much better understanding of the situation in post-war Europe than the combined high command of all the Western Allies.

Yes, because Hindsight is indeed 20/20. We now have access to the history of both sides to allow us to form an educated opinion on how the operation would’ve unfolded.

It wouldn't even be a contest. As soon as we crossed their borders, Czechoslavkia, Poland, Hungary, Romania, and the Baltic states would have all revolted against the Soviets.

[Totally Not OEP]

You will need to explain, then, how a Cold War confrontation has anything to do with a WWII era issue. You have indicated that you’re a recent High School graduate; if this is accurate you need to learn how to engage in academic debates in the collegiate realm and you do that via citations, not personal attacks or whataboutisms.

I'm not gonna bother repeating myself, since you obviously don't care to listen. I explained why I brought it up and why it's relevant. The people who care to argue in good faith will understand why.

You did not explain why it's relevant and hence why I specifically brought up the matter of personal attacks; it's only relevant when using it to attack me as an individual in a debate, rather than actually arguing over the merits of the proposition I proposed. Because I assert X does not invalidate my position on Y, and that is basic debate etiquette. If you genuinely believe I only argue in bad faith, I suggest putting me back on your blocked list instead of blaming the system for your own lack of control.

[Crysuko]

Yes, because Hindsight is indeed 20/20. We now have access to the history of both sides to allow us to form an educated opinion on how the operation would’ve unfolded.

It wouldn't even be a contest. As soon as we crossed their borders, Czechoslavkia, Poland, Hungary, Romania, and the Baltic states would have all revolted against the Soviets.

Can you get your alt history wank over with soon?

[Proctopeo]

"anti-SJW gamer culture" exists, yes. However, "rabid, reactionary anti-SJW hysteria" is just patent nonsense. The hysteria about the hysteria is present in significant quantities, however.

Wow. If you put your head any deeper in the sand, you'd hit lava.

Just because you hear about something a lot doesn't mean it actually happens a lot, Cekky.

Honest question: Do you have a ResetERA account?

[Crysuko]

Wow. If you put your head any deeper in the sand, you'd hit lava.

Just because you hear about something a lot doesn't mean it actually happens a lot, Cekky.

Honest question: Do you have a ResetERA account?

Translation: regardless of the answer (if any) I'll still make a cheap barb out of it

[Proctopeo]

Just because you hear about something a lot doesn't mean it actually happens a lot, Cekky.

Honest question: Do you have a ResetERA account?

Translation: regardless of the answer (if any) I'll still make a cheap barb out of it

It seems you made a cheap barb out of it without any answers at all.

[Torrocca]

I'm not gonna bother repeating myself, since you obviously don't care to listen. I explained why I brought it up and why it's relevant. The people who care to argue in good faith will understand why.

You did not explain why it's relevant and hence why I specifically brought up the matter of personal attacks; it's only relevant when using it to attack me as an individual in a debate, rather than actually arguing over the merits of the proposition I proposed. Because I assert X does not invalidate my position on Y, and that is basic debate etiquette. If you genuinely believe I only argue in bad faith, I suggest putting me back on your blocked list instead of blaming the system for your own lack of control.

Yes I did. Given that you can't argue against what I said without blatantly lying about what I said and committing personal attacks against me while falsely projecting that I'm personally attacking you, it's abundantly clear you're only posting here right now out of bad faith.

[Kubra]

I firmly feel we should've attacked the Soviet Union in 1945 while we still had the conventional and nuclear advantage over the Red Army.

>conventional
The USSR had basically everything out west, Europe would have been overrun pretty much immediately.
>Nuclear
Like a handful of nukes, and figuring out where to launch bombers from without being shot down would have been a bit of a challenge.

[Kubra]

Not at all, because the RKKA would be rapidly beaten and 50 million lives would be saved.

Basically all of occupied Eastern Europe would pick up their arms and side with the advancing Allied armies against the Reds.

remember kiddies: if your commanders plan is "and the people will rise with us", desert at the soonest possible opportunity, because you are going to die.

[Crysuko]

Translation: regardless of the answer (if any) I'll still make a cheap barb out of it

It seems you made a cheap barb out of it without any answers at all.

It really is that easy

[Totally Not OEP]

You did not explain why it's relevant and hence why I specifically brought up the matter of personal attacks; it's only relevant when using it to attack me as an individual in a debate, rather than actually arguing over the merits of the proposition I proposed. Because I assert X does not invalidate my position on Y, and that is basic debate etiquette. If you genuinely believe I only argue in bad faith, I suggest putting me back on your blocked list instead of blaming the system for your own lack of control.

Yes I did. Given that you can't argue against what I said without blatantly lying about what I said and committing personal attacks against me while falsely projecting that I'm personally attacking you, it's abundantly clear you're only posting here right now out of bad faith.

The only reason you provided was because I believe that Nazi Germany outproduced the Soviet Union, no other reason was given and when asked again you demurred, claiming you didn't want to repeat yourself. If you feel you gave another, more factually based response elsewhere, I welcome you to quote it back to me because I evidently did not see it.

As for personal attacks on you, it's only a projection if I don't directly say it, but I already did. If you would like me to be even more clear, I shall: I think you have a problem with your own self control. You've repeatedly stated you're going to block me and as of yet I have failed to see that happen, with my queries into that being returned with you blaming the blocking system for your inability to do so. The system works fine, the problem is your own inability to abide by it.

[Torrocca]

Basically all of occupied Eastern Europe would pick up their arms and side with the advancing Allied armies against the Reds.

remember kiddies: if your commanders plan is "and the people will rise with us", desert at the soonest possible opportunity, because you are going to die.

How many Allied soldiers do you think would've actually been okay with a shoddy plan wherein they're kickstarting a new world war after just finishing the deadliest war in history and fighting side-by-side with a reformed Wehrmacht against the USSR in a blatant act of betrayal against their Soviet allies, all while their new allies were the guys directly responsible for millions of atrocities and over a million deaths among the Western Allies alone?

I'd imagine the desertion rates would've been delicious if the Western Allies tried preparing for that plan in any serious capacity tbqh.

[Totally Not OEP]

I firmly feel we should've attacked the Soviet Union in 1945 while we still had the conventional and nuclear advantage over the Red Army.

>conventional
The USSR had basically everything out west, Europe would have been overrun pretty much immediately.
>Nuclear
Like a handful of nukes, and figuring out where to launch bombers from without being shot down would have been a bit of a challenge.

Now this is a proper response.

Bagration, 1944, Osprey Campaign Series -

"Soviet rifle divisions were generally smaller than their German counterparts, averaging 2500-4000 troops. At the time of Operation Bagration a concerted effort was made to bring these units up to an average of 6000 troops. No serious effort was made to bring them up to their nominal TOE strength of 9600 troops."

Red Army Handbook, 1939-1945, by Steven J. Zaloga -

"By this time, however, it was becoming apparent that the Soviet force structure of 500-plus Divisions simply exceeded their capacity to support it. [..] in mid-1944 more drastic action was necessary. Either some of the rifle divisions would have to be demobilized and their personnel used to fill out other units, or divisional strengths far below envisioned norms would have to be accepted. The Stavka opted for the latter alternative."

Soviet Military Doctrine from Lenin to Gorbachev, 1915-1991, by Willard C. Frank -

"Soviet sources reflect manpower deficiencies by emphasizing the low strength of rifle units and the draconian measures used to enlist soldiers in liberated regions. By 1945 Soviet rifle divisions were often under strength, with only 3,500 to 5,000 men each."

The masses of B-24s and B-17s the U.S. had used to break Nazi Germany were still present. Indeed, 12,000 planes were available as late as June of 1945 when UNTHINKABLE only called for 9,000. Air Power and Maneuver Warfare by Martin van Creveld states that 87% of German counterattacks against Soviet exploitation forces happened outside the range of all fire support except for the Soviet air force.

Next, we move to the nuclear issue. Serial production was already underway by September/October and three devices would be ready by August. To understand why this is important, consider the following:



Take out Warsaw, Lublin and Lwow, and the entire logistics net of the RKKA West of the Vistula immediately collapses as they've just lost their rail connections to the USSR proper.

Finally, the entire Soviet economy was threatening to fall apart at this time, according to Beginnings of the Cold War Arms Race: The Truman Administration and the U.S. Arms Build-Up by Raymond P. Ojserkis:

"There was evidence indicating that the Soviet economy was weak. Even the Soviet government's published statistics, which were thought to be generally exaggerated, revealed an economy far behind the west. Soviet diplomatic actions in the immediate post-war period, whether in the form of attempts to gain more favourable conditions for Lend-Lease payments, Sovietlobbying for a large German reparations payment, Soviet demands to gain Austrian oil, or the transportation of basic infrastructure from conquered eastern Europe to the Soviet Union all indicated economic deficiencies. General Walter Bedell Smith, a future head of the Central Intelligence Agency, estimated that it would be another 10 to 15 years before the Soviets had recovered from the last war. The CIA's Office of Research and Estimates (ORE) tried to appraise the Soviet Union in terms of war potential, looking at the industrial strength, technology, and possible bottlenecks to increased production. The ORE concluded that Soviet economic weaknesses gravely limited the ability of Moscow to fight a prolonged war with the North Atlantic Treaty nations."

"In particular, American analysts felt that the Soviet petroleum industry would find it difficult to produce enough high octane fuel, the Soviet machine tool industry did not produce enough spare parts, there was insufficient rolling stock to handle war time needs in the USSR, and the Soviets had perennial shortages of certain non-ferrous metals and certain types of finished steel. Complicating these problems, and, to an extent, causing them, were the Soviet deficiencies in properly trained technological personnel and managers."

[The Liberated Territories]

I would say as long as the Communist Party nationalized most industries on behalf of the proletariat, the USSR was close to socialist up to the 80s at least. Of course a lot of socialists, particularly "libertarian" types, would disagree, arguing the workers need direct control of the workplace and not indirect control the USSR had.

[Torrocca]

>Be Western Allies
>Think up Operation Unthinkable to liberate Poland and other countries in Eastern Europe
>Rebuild the Wehrmacht for the operation, since Operation Unthinkable called for that to happen, thus eliciting concern from your own soldiers and probably even greater concern from Eastern Europeans, who all had to endure the horrors of seeing thousands to millions of their fellow soldiers and citizens die or be ruthlessly tortured, raped, starved, and enslaved by the Nazis
>The reemergence of the Wehrmacht probably inspires the Eastern Europeans to side with the Soviets rather than with the Western Allies
>Actually it almost definitely inspires them to side with the Soviets thanks to shit like Generalplan Ost and all the raping and genocide and other atrocities
>RIP any hopes of a general uprising in Eastern Europe against the USSR
>Entire operation hinges on America speedily building nukes and a surprise attack through Dresden, which the Soviets probably know about thanks to the buildup of Soviet forces
>Commence Operation Unthinkable in this farcical of alt-historical fantasy
>P R O C E E D T O N U K E T H R E E M A J O R P O L I S H C I T I E S
>tfw the country you planned on liberating just had tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people turned into radioactive ash by you in this ridiculous reimagining of history

[Totally Not OEP]

>Be Western Allies
>Think up Operation Unthinkable to liberate Poland and other countries in Eastern Europe
>Rebuild the Wehrmacht for the operation, since Operation Unthinkable called for that to happen, thus eliciting concern from your own soldiers and probably even greater concern from Eastern Europeans, who all had to endure the horrors of seeing thousands to millions of their fellow soldiers and citizens die or be ruthlessly tortured, raped, starved, and enslaved by the Nazis
>The reemergence of the Wehrmacht probably inspires the Eastern Europeans to side with the Soviets rather than with the Western Allies
>Actually it almost definitely inspires them to side with the Soviets thanks to shit like Generalplan Ost and all the raping and genocide and other atrocities
>RIP any hopes of a general uprising in Eastern Europe against the USSR
>Entire operation hinges on America speedily building nukes and a surprise attack through Dresden, which the Soviets probably know about thanks to the buildup of Soviet forces
>Commence Operation Unthinkable in this farcical of alt-historical fantasy
>P R O C E E D T O N U K E T H R E E M A J O R P O L I S H C I T I E S
>tfw the country you planned on liberating just had tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people turned into radioactive ash by you in this ridiculous reimagining of history

Yeah, war pretty much wraps up in total victory within six months. The Soviet state was to the brink of collapse at this point, and the RKKA was weak, a true glass cannon.

[Grahnol]

We're talking about if the USSR was socialist, are we?

My take is that the USSR was definitely more of the authsoc type of socialism, which means it was probably socialist to a lot of people but libsocs would probably disagree for reasons I'm quite sympathetic to. Admittedly, the economy of the Soviet Union isn't something I'm too well-knowledged in but this is what I can gather from what I know. Tell me if I'm wrong.

I would say as long as the Communist Party nationalized most industries on behalf of the proletariat, the USSR was close to socialist up to the 80s at least. Of course a lot of socialists, particularly "libertarian" types, would disagree, arguing the workers need direct control of the workplace and not indirect control the USSR had.

This tbh. In the 80s, Gorbachev started a shift in policies which gradually diminished what I would consider the socialist elements of the Soviet Union in favour of an economy with limited market features. By then the status of the USSR as a socialist country had become rather debatable. Of course, Gorbachev's reforms came too late in the USSR's instability to actually save it from its collapse, assuming it would have saved it at all, regardless of if they came earlier.

[Torrocca]

O shit, Evo Morales is likely going to win the presidency in Bolivia yet again. He beat the right-wing opponent by about 10 points in the first round of voting. Noice.