NationStates

Outer Sparta wrote:

Thermodolia wrote:It will be interesting to see Duda lose the presidency

I wonder if right wing populism might have met it’s end

If Duda loses, it's a big blow especially in Eastern Europe with all of their recent right-wing populism succeeding there and especially in Hungary.

1) Poland is in central not eastern europe
2) What has hungary got to do with this
3) Orban is sitting at over 50%+ in polls
4) Duda is sitting at 42% in yesterday's election, chances of him losing are extremely low when the extreme right has 8% on its own. (Bosak votes)

Definitely Not Trumptonium wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:If Duda loses, it's a big blow especially in Eastern Europe with all of their recent right-wing populism succeeding there and especially in Hungary.

1) Poland is in central not eastern europe
2) What has hungary got to do with this
3) Orban is sitting at over 50%+ in polls
4) Duda is sitting at 42% in yesterday's election, chances of him losing are extremely low when the extreme right has 8% on its own. (Bosak votes)

Politically, they're more aligned with Eastern Europe. And how is Duda's chances of losing low when the two candidates are essentially tied in the polls despite Bosak votes going to Duda?

I'm not Polish, but if I was, I'd probably vote for the SLD. They line up with my politics pretty well (despite being pro-European).

Atheris wrote:I'm not Polish, but if I was, I'd probably vote for the SLD. They line up with my politics pretty well (despite being pro-European).

Currently KO has been the big opposition party and are more liberal and pro-European than PiS.

Outer Sparta wrote:

Atheris wrote:I'm not Polish, but if I was, I'd probably vote for the SLD. They line up with my politics pretty well (despite being pro-European).

Currently KO has been the big opposition party and are more liberal and pro-European than PiS.

The PO doesn't seem that bad, but if I was voting then the whole pro-Europe thing would probably inch me away from it.

Atheris wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:Currently KO has been the big opposition party and are more liberal and pro-European than PiS.

The PO doesn't seem that bad, but if I was voting then the whole pro-Europe thing would probably inch me away from it.

Of course I say KO as the Civic Coalition alliance that's mostly made of PO but includes three other smaller parties.

Outer Sparta wrote:

Definitely Not Trumptonium wrote:
1) Poland is in central not eastern europe
2) What has hungary got to do with this
3) Orban is sitting at over 50%+ in polls
4) Duda is sitting at 42% in yesterday's election, chances of him losing are extremely low when the extreme right has 8% on its own. (Bosak votes)

Politically, they're more aligned with Eastern Europe.

uhm, so UK is eastern european?

Outer Sparta wrote:And how is Duda's chances of losing low when the two candidates are essentially tied in the polls despite Bosak votes going to Duda?

tied in the polls?

the exit polls for the first round yesterday put Duda at 41.8% and his main opposition at 30.4%. Bosak is 7.4%.

extremely hard to see a scenario in which duda does not end up winning.

Definitely Not Trumptonium wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:Politically, they're more aligned with Eastern Europe.

uhm, so UK is eastern european?

Outer Sparta wrote:And how is Duda's chances of losing low when the two candidates are essentially tied in the polls despite Bosak votes going to Duda?

tied in the polls?

the exit polls for the first round yesterday put Duda at 41.8% and his main opposition at 30.4%. Bosak is 7.4%.

extremely hard to see a scenario in which duda does not end up winning.

For polls I mean the second round. Most of the votes for other candidates will go to Trzaskowski while most of Bosak's will go to Duda. It'll be really close between Duda and Trzaskowski.

Definitely Not Trumptonium wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:If Duda loses, it's a big blow especially in Eastern Europe with all of their recent right-wing populism succeeding there and especially in Hungary.

1) Poland is in central not eastern europe
2) What has hungary got to do with this
3) Orban is sitting at over 50%+ in polls
4) Duda is sitting at 42% in yesterday's election, chances of him losing are extremely low when the extreme right has 8% on its own. (Bosak votes)

The current polls for the second round have Duda and Trzaskowski neck and neck. So there’s a slight possibility that Duda could lose

Thermodolia wrote:

Definitely Not Trumptonium wrote:
1) Poland is in central not eastern europe
2) What has hungary got to do with this
3) Orban is sitting at over 50%+ in polls
4) Duda is sitting at 42% in yesterday's election, chances of him losing are extremely low when the extreme right has 8% on its own. (Bosak votes)

The current polls for the second round have Duda and Trzaskowski neck and neck. So there’s a slight possibility that Duda could lose

It also depends how Holownia voters will lean and how strongly they will lean towards Trzaskowski. Bideron voters will also lean towards the PO candidate but some of them there might prefer Duda's economic policies and Euroscepticism.

Outer Sparta wrote:

Thermodolia wrote:The current polls for the second round have Duda and Trzaskowski neck and neck. So there’s a slight possibility that Duda could lose

It also depends how Holownia voters will lean and how strongly they will lean towards Trzaskowski. Bideron voters will also lean towards the PO candidate but some of them there might prefer Duda's economic policies and Euroscepticism.

Hmm....looking at the exit polls, I'm seeing a 52-48 win for Duda in Round 2 myself. If I knew the President actually had power, I'd have paid more attention.

Shrillland wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:It also depends how Holownia voters will lean and how strongly they will lean towards Trzaskowski. Bideron voters will also lean towards the PO candidate but some of them there might prefer Duda's economic policies and Euroscepticism.

Hmm....looking at the exit polls, I'm seeing a 52-48 win for Duda in Round 2 myself. If I knew the President actually had power, I'd have paid more attention.

It's more symbolic of a role and a liberal, pro-European candidate like Trzaskowski would deal a defeat for the PiS for the first time in a while. Of course, Poland has an decent sized opposition in KO that's made of parties from EPP, RE, and the G/EFA group, so them pulling this off against the giants of PiS would be a big task.

Outer Sparta wrote:

Shrillland wrote:
Hmm....looking at the exit polls, I'm seeing a 52-48 win for Duda in Round 2 myself. If I knew the President actually had power, I'd have paid more attention.

It's more symbolic of a role and a liberal, pro-European candidate like Trzaskowski would deal a defeat for the PiS for the first time in a while. Of course, Poland has an decent sized opposition in KO that's made of parties from EPP, RE, and the G/EFA group, so them pulling this off against the giants of PiS would be a big task.

The president of Poland isn’t symbolic. They have a lot of power. Similar to Russia and France, Poland has both a prime minister and an executive president.

Shrillland wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:It also depends how Holownia voters will lean and how strongly they will lean towards Trzaskowski. Bideron voters will also lean towards the PO candidate but some of them there might prefer Duda's economic policies and Euroscepticism.

Hmm....looking at the exit polls, I'm seeing a 52-48 win for Duda in Round 2 myself. If I knew the President actually had power, I'd have paid more attention.

A poll from the 26th with updated exit poll results has Trzaskowski winning 51-49

Thermodolia wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:It's more symbolic of a role and a liberal, pro-European candidate like Trzaskowski would deal a defeat for the PiS for the first time in a while. Of course, Poland has an decent sized opposition in KO that's made of parties from EPP, RE, and the G/EFA group, so them pulling this off against the giants of PiS would be a big task.

The president of Poland isn’t symbolic. They have a lot of power. Similar to Russia and France, Poland has both a prime minister and an executive president.

I thought their prime minister would have most of the power instead of the president.

Outer Sparta wrote:

Thermodolia wrote:The president of Poland isn’t symbolic. They have a lot of power. Similar to Russia and France, Poland has both a prime minister and an executive president.

I thought their prime minister would have most of the power instead of the president.

They do, the president isn't as powerful as that of France or Russia, but they can draft and veto legislation.

Shrillland wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:I thought their prime minister would have most of the power instead of the president.

They do, the president isn't as powerful as that of France or Russia, but they can draft and veto legislation.

There's another aspect to the election and that will be expat votes. From what I heard, Poles in Europe tend to lean Trzaskowski while Poles in American lean Duda.

Outer Sparta wrote:

Thermodolia wrote:The president of Poland isn’t symbolic. They have a lot of power. Similar to Russia and France, Poland has both a prime minister and an executive president.

I thought their prime minister would have most of the power instead of the president.

Not all nations in Europe are Parliamentary Republics. Some like France are Semi-Presidential Republics

Shrillland wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:I thought their prime minister would have most of the power instead of the president.

They do, the president isn't as powerful as that of France or Russia, but they can draft and veto legislation.

They can do a bit more than that as well

Thermodolia wrote:

Definitely Not Trumptonium wrote:
1) Poland is in central not eastern europe
2) What has hungary got to do with this
3) Orban is sitting at over 50%+ in polls
4) Duda is sitting at 42% in yesterday's election, chances of him losing are extremely low when the extreme right has 8% on its own. (Bosak votes)

The current polls for the second round have Duda and Trzaskowski neck and neck. So there’s a slight possibility that Duda could lose

Not really, polls in Poland are known for their accuracy, partly due to extremely tribalist voting. Excluding undecideds, almost all polls show Duda winning.

It will likely be a repeat of the last election where Duda got 51.5% and his opponent Komorowski got 48.5%, plus or minus a percent for Duda.

Effectively it's a question of turnout, not of changing minds.

Outer Sparta wrote:

Thermodolia wrote:The current polls for the second round have Duda and Trzaskowski neck and neck. So there’s a slight possibility that Duda could lose

It also depends how Holownia voters will lean and how strongly they will lean towards Trzaskowski. Bideron voters will also lean towards the PO candidate but some of them there might prefer Duda's economic policies and Euroscepticism.

Not really seeing the link between Biedron and euroscepticsm/conservative economic policies ... it's quite opposite for both.

Holowina voters are more likely to vote Duda than Biedron.

The left-right goes like this

((centre left)) Biedron (2.9%) ---> Tanajno (0.3%) ---> Witkowski (0.3%) ((the centre begins here)) ---> Kosiniak-Kamysz (2.6%)* ---> Trzaskowski (30.4%) ((the centre right begins here)) ---> Holownia**(13.3%) ---> Jakubiak (0.5%) ((the right begins here)) ---> Duda (41.8%) > Piotrkowski (0.2%) ---> ((the hard right begins here)) Zoltek (0.3%) ---> Bosak (7.4%)

* = Rural voters only, might as well go PiS really
** = Mostly middle class urban people, dont be mistaken by Anglo tendency for city = liberal, Poland is like France, urban votes outside of the capital are down to tax policies

Aka, a 52-48 kind of thing really. Surprises unlikely. Trzaskowski might as well edge in through but either way it will be a narrow vote with Duda extremely like to win on that 1-2% advantage.


Also can we have a moment to enjoy how this guy looks like a 17th century noble (Jakubiak)

Thermodolia wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:It's more symbolic of a role and a liberal, pro-European candidate like Trzaskowski would deal a defeat for the PiS for the first time in a while. Of course, Poland has an decent sized opposition in KO that's made of parties from EPP, RE, and the G/EFA group, so them pulling this off against the giants of PiS would be a big task.

The president of Poland isn’t symbolic. They have a lot of power. Similar to Russia and France, Poland has both a prime minister and an executive president.

It is symbolic. De jure Poland is a semi-presidential country, de facto the President's powers are limited to vetos on all parliamentary acts (which can be overridden by a 2-1 vote) and the ability to appoint supreme court and constitutional court judges, as well as presenting law-binding referendums to the public, once a year, for anything they want. It is absolutely not similar to France and Russia -- the President has no right to appoint or approve the government cabinet, and has no ability to execute laws of their own.

Their only role prior to ~2005 (those above were never exercised) was to represent Poland in diplomacy abroad. All three Presidents since then have continued to do so, which doesn't make much sense when Poland sends a President to e.g. NATO summits, as they have no power to enforce anything they sign in relation to law-making, for example raising the budget of the military, procurements of helicopters, so on and so on.

Shrillland wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:I thought their prime minister would have most of the power instead of the president.

They do, the president isn't as powerful as that of France or Russia, but they can draft and veto legislation.

The former is not correct (minus drafting laws to be passed by a referendum), the latter is, but that in itself can be overridden by parliament too. (or the Senate, forgot)

https://www.euronews.com/2020/07/09/pol ... -incumbent

election is too close to call with the most recent polls. Warsaw Mayor Rafal Tzaskowski leads by the narrowest of margins heading into the sunday runoff. If the incumbent lost it would be huge blow to the populist and nationalist movement in Europe

Outer Sparta wrote:

Thermodolia wrote:It will be interesting to see Duda lose the presidency

I wonder if right wing populism might have met it’s end

If Duda loses, it's a big blow especially in Eastern Europe with all of their recent right-wing populism succeeding there and especially in Hungary.

It’s genuinely irrelevant even in Poland, East Europe isn’t some interconnected entity where the elections of one country impacts the other. I wouldn’t consider Duda a populist or a true ideal for Conservatives either way, he’s just a guy filling in a job and subscribing to a script just like the opposition.

San Lumen wrote:https://www.euronews.com/2020/07/09/poland-presidential-election-pro-eu-hopeful-rafal-trzaskowski-neck-and-neck-with-incumbent

election is too close to call with the most recent polls. Warsaw Mayor Rafal Tzaskowski leads by the narrowest of margins heading into the sunday runoff. If the incumbent lost it would be huge blow to the populist and nationalist movement in Europe

do you think that people across europe hold hands and decide what to vote together or something