The Polska Electoral Polka(A Polish Election Thread)

[Definitely Not Trumptonium]

looks like duda will win on an even narrower margin than his 51% / 49% in 2015.

[Definitely Not Trumptonium]

some data from first round: counties won



unfortunately poland really lacks any good population density maps, so this will have to make do for comparison



https://i.pinimg.com/originals/72/14/c6 ... 13d7ff.png

[Baltenstein]

I find it interesting that Southern Poland seems to be much more densely populated than Northern or Western Poland. Are those still the after-effects of the territorial exchange post-WW2?

[Shrillland]

I find it interesting that Southern Poland seems to be much more densely populated than Northern or Western Poland. Are those still the after-effects of the territorial exchange post-WW2?

Partially, but mostly it's because these are the major mining and industrial centres in the Carpathians.

[San Lumen]

looks like duda will win on an even narrower margin than his 51% / 49% in 2015.

Given how tight polls are there is possibility he could lose which I hope he does

[Latvijas Otra Republika]

https://www.euronews.com/2020/07/09/poland-presidential-election-pro-eu-hopeful-rafal-trzaskowski-neck-and-neck-with-incumbent

election is too close to call with the most recent polls. Warsaw Mayor Rafal Tzaskowski leads by the narrowest of margins heading into the sunday runoff. If the incumbent lost it would be huge blow to the populist and nationalist movement in Europe

do you think that people across europe hold hands and decide what to vote together or something

Yhea if Duda loses I'm gonna switch from the 'bad populist guys' party to the 'Pro-USA good guys party' because I follow the universal European hive.

[Katovice]

All I can say as a Silesian is that Warsaw (and Poland) sucks. I don’t care who wins or loses this election, because it means more of the same for us Silesians. More exploitation and destruction of Silesian land. More closure of our (relatively) well-run industry. More marginalisation. And more destruction of our culture and way of life.

As a Silesian, allow me to cast my vote for... making Silesia Czech again. Seriously, we’d be better off in Czechia. We fought the Germans in 1919-1921, but we chose to join the wrong country (Poland). Wszyjscy Hanysy mojou cołki polski bojzel w rzici! My dupcymy wos, polsko!

[Definitely Not Trumptonium]

I find it interesting that Southern Poland seems to be much more densely populated than Northern or Western Poland. Are those still the after-effects of the territorial exchange post-WW2?

Yes and no - northern Poland is the european centre of unemployment, back in 2004 it topped 50% of the adult population. Nowadays it's around 10% while the rest of Poland sits at 3-5%, hence, part of the depopulation is simply emigration from the country or the region. Also when I say north I mean northwest. The northeast (nearly perfectly aligned with the historical borders of East Prussia) is marshland.

Western Poland wasn't as populated as northern Poland, as most citizens from then-Soviet-annexed regions moved to Northern Poland instead, where there was less destruction of German housing stock. Western Poland after the Soviet attack was a barren wasteland.

And, of course, southern Poland was always densely populated in the first place. Coal mines and industry and whatnot, both German (Silesian) and Polish (/Austrian partition) parts. That area has always been at the frontline of population density for at least 500+ years, Krakow was one of the largest cities in Europe from about 1200 to 1800.

[Definitely Not Trumptonium]

looks like duda will win on an even narrower margin than his 51% / 49% in 2015.

Given how tight polls are there is possibility he could lose which I hope he does

Just for context, in 2015 when the polls were 49% and 51% on election night one minute after ballots closed when the poll was released, the loser conceded the election before the results.

Given that Duda is leading, it's extremely unlikely.

Exit poll is in about 40 min anyway.

[Major-Tom]

Given how tight polls are there is possibility he could lose which I hope he does

Just for context, in 2015 when the polls were 49% and 51% on election night one minute after ballots closed when the poll was released, the loser conceded the election before the results.

Given that Duda is leading, it's extremely unlikely.

Exit poll is in about 40 min anyway.

The exit poll came out, Duda w 50.4% to Trz...Trzaskowski? Jesus Christ, Polish is consonant soup, anyways, here it is;
See here.

[Thermodolia]

Just for context, in 2015 when the polls were 49% and 51% on election night one minute after ballots closed when the poll was released, the loser conceded the election before the results.

Given that Duda is leading, it's extremely unlikely.

Exit poll is in about 40 min anyway.

The exit poll came out, Duda w 50.4% to Trz...Trzaskowski? Jesus Christ, Polish is consonant soup, anyways, here it is;
See here.

That’s one small lead. Also apparently the votes from polish abroad have yet to be counted. Which means there Significant room for change

[New Rogernomics]

Just for context, in 2015 when the polls were 49% and 51% on election night one minute after ballots closed when the poll was released, the loser conceded the election before the results.

Given that Duda is leading, it's extremely unlikely.

Exit poll is in about 40 min anyway.

The exit poll came out, Duda w 50.4% to Trz...Trzaskowski? Jesus Christ, Polish is consonant soup, anyways, here it is;
See here.

It is unlikely that Poland will have any results today, and given how close the vote is overseas votes could make the difference, and overseas voters don't favor Duda.

Though if Duda wins, I guess the EU can say hello to the newest nation in the tin-pot dictators club within the next year or two, maybe a poor man's Belarus, as Poland will rapidly become as corrupt as Russia with no political or judicial accountability. So other EU member states should start preparing to offer political asylum to Poland's LGBT community and opposition activists, and maybe to consider kicking Poland out of the EU entirely for having no human rights values, as it only gets worse from here if Duda wins.

[San Lumen]

The exit poll came out, Duda w 50.4% to Trz...Trzaskowski? Jesus Christ, Polish is consonant soup, anyways, here it is;
See here.

That’s one small lead. Also apparently the votes from polish abroad have yet to be counted. Which means there Significant room for change

There is hope then that he could lose

[New Rogernomics]

All I can say as a Silesian is that Warsaw (and Poland) sucks. I don’t care who wins or loses this election, because it means more of the same for us Silesians. More exploitation and destruction of Silesian land. More closure of our (relatively) well-run industry. More marginalisation. And more destruction of our culture and way of life.

As a Silesian, allow me to cast my vote for... making Silesia Czech again. Seriously, we’d be better off in Czechia. We fought the Germans in 1919-1921, but we chose to join the wrong country (Poland). Wszyjscy Hanysy mojou cołki polski bojzel w rzici! My dupcymy wos, polsko!

Well, if Duda has his way Poland will be joining the Russian Federation soon enough (culturally if not politically), as Poland's ruling party will just grow more and more hostile to Germany and their other neighbors. Plus Trump can only legally be President for four more years, if he is re-elected, and the President after will be a Democrat - who will want to repair US-EU relations, and not create a rift by supporting Poland's far-right party.

There is one terrible way this goes down politically:
1) Ruling party engages in extreme levels of cronyism, giving top jobs according to political loyalty i.e. like Russia and many former Soviet states.
2) Political opposition is crushed or eliminated through fake 'corruption' drives, and opposition leaders are accused of spreading 'homosexuality', and any other false charges they can create.
3) Poland slides into heavy corruption, modeling itself more after pre-revolt Ukraine or Belarus, with a terrible economy and level of political or social freedom to boot.
4) EU leaders are unable to ignore an imploding nation on their doorstep, and increased domestic political pressure because of Poland's human rights violations makes it impossible for the EU to fund Poland as it did previously.
5) Various factions build in Poland, with three major camps i.e. stay in EU and reverse ruling party 'reforms', leave the EU, and leave the EU and become closer with Russia.
6) Total uncertainty for decades and a reason for EU leaders to consider forcing Poland out, even with no clear mechanism to do so.

[Major-Tom]

The exit poll came out, Duda w 50.4% to Trz...Trzaskowski? Jesus Christ, Polish is consonant soup, anyways, here it is;
See here.

It is unlikely that Poland will have any results today, and given how close the vote is overseas votes could make the difference, and overseas voters don't favor Duda.

Though if Duda wins, I guess the EU can say hello to the newest nation in the tin-pot dictators club within the next year or two, maybe a poor man's Belarus, as Poland will rapidly become as corrupt as Russia with no political or judicial accountability. So other EU member states should start preparing to offer political asylum to Poland's LGBT community and opposition activists, and maybe to consider kicking Poland out of the EU entirely for having no human rights values, as it only gets worse from here if Duda wins.

Pretty much, yeah. Watching Poland toy with re-electing Duda // PIS makes me a bit anxious about my own country's situation.

But, hey, we both know the EU won't really hold Poland accountable, why would they? It's not in their greater economic interest to.

[New Rogernomics]

It is unlikely that Poland will have any results today, and given how close the vote is overseas votes could make the difference, and overseas voters don't favor Duda.

Though if Duda wins, I guess the EU can say hello to the newest nation in the tin-pot dictators club within the next year or two, maybe a poor man's Belarus, as Poland will rapidly become as corrupt as Russia with no political or judicial accountability. So other EU member states should start preparing to offer political asylum to Poland's LGBT community and opposition activists, and maybe to consider kicking Poland out of the EU entirely for having no human rights values, as it only gets worse from here if Duda wins.

Pretty much, yeah. Watching Poland toy with re-electing Duda // PIS makes me a bit anxious about my own country's situation.

But, hey, we both know the EU won't really hold Poland accountable, why would they? It's not in their greater economic interest to.

The EU will cut their budget eventually, as this has already been threatened. Though what is more likely to happen is that Poland will rapidly form pro-EU, anti-EU pro Polexit, pro-Russia factions, and Poland as you've known it will be gone forever. I wouldn't be surprised if Poland leaves the EU of it's own accord, as EU-Poland relations grow more and more tense and the ruling party push extreme nationalism to retain power.

Poland is already going to be dire economically because of Covid-19, and political chaos and uncertainty coupled with extreme levels of government corruption, is not going to encourage outside investment or trade with Poland. Germany and France will be struggling too much with their own problems and other EU states to offer any substantial economic assistance to Poland. Though I think China will get more and more involved in Poland as the years go on, so perhaps the ruling party will survive through Chinese loans.

[San Lumen]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/12/europe/p ... index.html

Duda has declared victory but his opponent says he will not concede and is confident of victory.

[New Rogernomics]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/12/europe/poland-presidential-election-result-intl/index.html

Duda has declared victory but his opponent says he will not concede and is confident of victory.

Because it isn't over by a long shot as the exit poll margin of error is 2% and overseas votes still need to be counted.

[San Lumen]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/12/europe/poland-presidential-election-result-intl/index.html

Duda has declared victory but his opponent says he will not concede and is confident of victory.

Because it isn't over by a long shot as the exit poll margin of error is 2% and overseas votes still need to be counted.

someone else said overseas vote is enough it could decide the election. I hope Duda loses. When will overseas vote be counted?

[New Rogernomics]

Because it isn't over by a long shot as the exit poll margin of error is 2% and overseas votes still need to be counted.

someone else said overseas vote is enough it could decide the election. I hope Duda loses

Tuesday is being put as the date for the official results to be at least mostly in. What has also been pointed out or speculated about by media is that the courts are rigged by the ruling party, so if the result is close Duda could use the courts to rig the election and still claim victory - which would mean the effective end of free elections and democracy there.

[San Lumen]

someone else said overseas vote is enough it could decide the election. I hope Duda loses

Tuesday is being put as the date for the official results to be at least mostly in. What has also been pointed out or speculated about by media is that the courts are rigged by the ruling party, so if the result is close Duda could use the courts to rig the election and still claim victory - which would mean the effective end of free elections and democracy there.

Given the hard right lurch Poland has taken I could see that happening. Hungary is already a de facto dictatorship and Poland could very well follow. I hope if Duda does that there are massive protests against him.

[Definitely Not Trumptonium]

The exit poll came out, Duda w 50.4% to Trz...Trzaskowski? Jesus Christ, Polish is consonant soup, anyways, here it is;
See here.

It is unlikely that Poland will have any results today, and given how close the vote is overseas votes could make the difference, and overseas voters don't favor Duda.

Where are you getting this theory from?

From the 2015 Presidential election:

Zwycięzcą drugiej tury okazał się Andrzej Duda, na którego głosowało 55,9 proc. wyborców za granicą (88,6 tys.). Bronisław Komorowski uzyskał 44,0 proc. (69,8 tys.). Największe poparcie Andrzej Duda zdobył w USA (80,8 proc.) i Kanadzie (77,3 proc.),

---> The winner of the second round with overseas voters was Andrzej Duda, who received 55.9% of votes, while Bronislaw Komorowski gained 44%.

For comparison, the actual election results of 2015 was 51.5% for Duda and 48.5% voted for Komorowski. In the USA alone, Duda received 80.8% of votes. Duda was also a huge winner in the United Kingdom. The third largest expat country, Germany, had the most minor of leads for Komorowski at 52 to 48%.
http://biuletynmigracyjny.uw.edu.pl/52- ... za-granica

If overseas voters will make a difference, then it will be in Duda's favour. Poles in the UK and US vote for right-wing candidates in extreme proportions (80% and 71%), probably as a result of their own unsavoury experience with non-white migrants and progressivism overload in the country they migrated to.

From the 2015 parliamentary elections instead:
https://tvn24.pl/polska/wybory-parlamen ... 09-3316549

USA Poles: 72.7% PiS (Duda party), not gonna bother giving rest

UK Poles: 24% Kukiz (nowadays right of PiS), 22.9% PiS, 20% KORWIN (extreme right), 14.95% PO (Trzaskowski)

German Poles: 31.2% PiS, 27.55% PO, 9.9% Nowoczesna

If overseas votes make the cut, Duda wins decidedly.

Though if Duda wins, I guess the EU can say hello to the newest nation in the tin-pot dictators club within the next year or two, maybe a poor man's Belarus, as Poland will rapidly become as corrupt as Russia with no political or judicial accountability. So other EU member states should start preparing to offer political asylum to Poland's LGBT community and opposition activists, and maybe to consider kicking Poland out of the EU entirely for having no human rights values, as it only gets worse from here if Duda wins.

well yeah whatever

[New Rogernomics]

Tuesday is being put as the date for the official results to be at least mostly in. What has also been pointed out or speculated about by media is that the courts are rigged by the ruling party, so if the result is close Duda could use the courts to rig the election and still claim victory - which would mean the effective end of free elections and democracy there.

Given the hard right lurch Poland has taken I could see that happening. Hungary is already a de facto dictatorship and Poland could very well follow. I hope if Duda does that there are massive protests against him.

If the vote is close, and he manages to survive the election anything is possible, as there are plenty of authoritarian models that Poland could follow. Firstly, the ruling party could choose to just rig ballots in the future, as there are no independent courts and nothing to stop the ruling party compelling or bribing officials to ignore ballot stuffing. Secondly, it could go after opposition politicians and activists on trumped up charges, which is how free elections are quashed in Russia generally. Thirdly, it could just let far-right extremists have even more free reign to assault the LGBT community and attack the opposition through violent means and intimidation, which is a tactic used in Chechnya.

[Definitely Not Trumptonium]

Tuesday is being put as the date for the official results to be at least mostly in. What has also been pointed out or speculated about by media is that the courts are rigged by the ruling party, so if the result is close Duda could use the courts to rig the election and still claim victory - which would mean the effective end of free elections and democracy there.

Hungary is already a de facto dictatorship

[Definitely Not Trumptonium]

All I can say as a Silesian is that Warsaw (and Poland) sucks. I don’t care who wins or loses this election, because it means more of the same for us Silesians. More exploitation and destruction of Silesian land. More closure of our (relatively) well-run industry. More marginalisation. And more destruction of our culture and way of life.

As a Silesian, allow me to cast my vote for... making Silesia Czech again. Seriously, we’d be better off in Czechia. We fought the Germans in 1919-1921, but we chose to join the wrong country (Poland). Wszyjscy Hanysy mojou cołki polski bojzel w rzici! My dupcymy wos, polsko!

Well, if Duda has his way Poland will be joining the Russian Federation soon enough (culturally if not politically), as Poland's ruling party will just grow more and more hostile to Germany and their other neighbors.

I assume your knowledge of Polish-Russian relations is basically zero.

I'm fairly sure the average Polish person wouldn't piss on a Russian to extinguish them from a fire.

Look, Russia lovers