Is the GOP Doomed?

[Paddy O Fernature]

Not really. Dickish yes, racist/supremacist not so much.

It is racist and many take it as such. So is calling Baltimore a dirty rat infested place no human would want to live in.

Um.. saying a city is shitty doesn't make a person racist, and claiming that it does absolutely lessens any credibility you may have had in being able to use that word to describe someone.

[Grinning Dragon]

tlaib and omar weren't born in America and came over when they were little, the other two were born in America.

From Wikipedia: “The eldest of 14 children, Rashida Tlaib (née Harbi) was born on July 24, 1976, to working-class Palestinian immigrants in Detroit.”

Ah my bad on tlaib then. I was going by her crying on tv when she described the pain of enduring militarized checkpoints and dehumanizing treatment by Israelis toward her and her Palestinian family.

[Kowani]

From Wikipedia: “The eldest of 14 children, Rashida Tlaib (née Harbi) was born on July 24, 1976, to working-class Palestinian immigrants in Detroit.”

Ah my bad on tlaib then. I was going by her crying on tv when she described the pain of enduring militarized checkpoints and dehumanizing treatment by Israelis toward her and her Palestinian family.

Ahh, yeah. That’s fair. I believe that was her talking about the last time she visited her family in Palestine.

[Fahran]

Unlikely on all accounts. Minority voters are not nearly as socially conservative as you might imagine, and, as I have argued before, the assimilation of Latinos by White Americans is extremely unlikely. If Latinos are to be considered white, we might as well do away with the concept of race altogether and just embrace an "American" ethnic identity.

1. Latino isn't really a race. It's more of an ethnic category that describes a very broad group of people, many of them quite pale in complexion.

2. Race has always been a malleable concept, pretty much since its inception. But, yeah, racial hierarchies suck.

3. I'm all on board with a grand American ethnic identity, but most of the people who advocate such things have no actual stomach for it beyond envisioning Americans as a nation populated by little Robespierres.

You can't have it both ways. Latinos can't seamlessly assimilate into white culture and maintain significantly different views from White Americans. Which is it?

White culture isn't really a thing. If you mean American middle-class culture, you can definitely assimilate into that while being Catholic or evangelical and socially conservative.

Besides that, according to this poll, black voters are 67% in favor of legal abortion, and Hispanic voters are 46% in favor. Since the mainstream media is, at least in the field of social issues, very progressive (just watch any random new Netflix series), I predict these numbers will only grow. Especially if you consider how much more liberal on social issues America has become in the last few decades. Gay marriage, abortion, and now the trans-movement have all seen widespread acceptance in a relatively short timespan. The acceptance of these previously taboo movements seems to me to happen so fast that those who object barely have time to react before a new issue is at the forefront, meaning they must shift their efforts from confronting the original issue to confronting the new one, and the original issue is gradually forgotten about and begrudgingly accepted (see gay rights and abortion being replaced by trans-rights as the most discussed social issue).

In any case, according to the poll, both Latinos and blacks believe social issues to be the least of their concerns, instead pointing to the economy as the critical campaign issue. So I highly doubt many will be voting for Republicans out of concern for social issues.

Hence my point about the GOP becoming more populist and nationalist on economic issues, which has occurred in the last three years.

[Kowani]

Hence my point about the GOP becoming more populist and nationalist on economic issues, which has occurred in the last three years.

Tax cuts! Tariffs! Downsize the government!
You see why that might not reach black and Latino voters?

[Fahran]

Tax cuts! Tariffs! Downsize the government!
You see why that might not reach black and Latino voters?

Um... I see why that wouldn't appeal to economically disadvantaged voters or voters who aren't economic liberals, yes. That said, Trump hasn't been shy about intervening the economy or opposing neoliberalism, and the hard political right isn't as libertarian on economics as the mainstream GOP. Trump could represent a political realignment in the making. We have no idea yet. My point in all of this is that counting your eggs before they hatch and assuming the pendulum will get stuck almost never pans out in politics.

[Holy Civesia]

Hello all, this is a subject which has interested me for some time.

It is commonly known that America is rapidly becoming more and more diverse. Specifically, during the 2040s white Americans will most likely become a minority.
The Houston Chronicle recently wrote:

Census Bureau projections show that the U.S. population will be “majority-minority” sometime between 2040 and 2050. Our research suggests that this will happen around 2044. Indeed, in 2020, there are projected to be more nonwhite children than white children in the U.S.

See also this Brookings article.

This interested me primarily because of the effects it will have on our elections. It is well known that the voting core of the Republic Party is white; 88% of those who voted for Trump in 2016 were white, and the same is true for Romney's voters in 2012. Only 60% of Hillary Clinton's supporters were white, proving that the Democratic Party is much less dependent on the white vote.

Finally, let me illustrate the failure of the Republican Party when it comes to attracting minority voters. This from the Pew Research Center: 54% of whites vote Republican, compared to 29% of Hispanics, 23% of Asians, and only 9% of African Americans.
Based on this graph:

and some quick math (hopefully I didn't miscalculate), this means that by 2045, so long as these demographics do not significantly shift, the Republican Party will only be able to muster ~37% of the popular vote, compared to 46% in 2016 and 47% in 2012. This might not seem like much, but it will be compounded by Texas, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania becoming purple and then blue states.

In short, by 2045, unless things drastically change, it will become almost statistically impossible for a Republican candidate to win the Presidency.

What do you make of it, NSG? Do you think that these census projections are just off, or that minorities will begin voting Republican in greater numbers?
Most importantly, how do you think the Republican Party will react to these changing demographics? Will they be able to successfully appeal to minorities or somehow reverse shifting demographics? Do you think that, if the Republican Party begins to collapse, a new party might step up to oppose the Democrats?

I believe that all of this will happen. The Republicans have, time and time again, failed to make inroads with the now minorities, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. I think it may be possible for the GOP to win larger portions of the Hispanic vote, but ultimately, I don't see them being able to overcome the demographic shift we're about to see. The GOP's strongest supporters are Christian whites, and that demographic is going to become smaller and smaller as time goes on, so the GOP is essentially stuck between a rock and a hard place. If it wants to attract new voters, it will have to become more progressive, but by doing so, it will betray its core supporters.
I am curious to see if a new, more progressive right-wing party will step up to challenge the Democrats once the GOP starts to slip.

I do not think it's good to base life on projections even from the Census, as I am not able to force what I think will happen in the future to come to fruition. 26 years seems like a long time, and doom probably is a poor word choice. Sorry for such a short post.

[Ceranapis]

Is the Trump Version of the Republican Party doomed? In the medium term, probably. The the current GOP strategy is currently catering to an ever smaller slice of the American population, so they need to increase turnout among their base if they want to win. But in so doing, they turn off moderates more and more, thus intensifying their problems of only being popular with a small slice of Americans and having themselves be identified as the party of white grievance. They can probably win a few more elections with this strategy (especially with the structural electoral advantages the Republican Coalition has in voting), but in its current form, it's not a sustainable long term solution.

But the GOP, the actual institution, is probably not doomed. Unless there is some sort of fundamental election change, the US is going to continue to be a two party system. It seems likely that the GOP will end up reinventing themselves after a couple of bad elections. And then everybody will be talking about how the Democrats are doomed, because of the size of the Republican coalition, ect. ect. ect. This is the way that it's always been in American politics. It seems unlikely that the GOP will die out like say, The Whigs.

Another possible shift would be if Latinos started identifying and being culturally identified as white, like ethnic groups in the past have done. Eastern Europeans and Irish, for example. But in the Trump GOP that seems highly unlikely.

[Tobleste]

The president?

I have yet to see any valid evidence that President Trump is "racist". (And the left-wing mainstream media is known for twisting facts and statements, so evidence from that is... less believable.)

It is wrong to call someone "racist" without proof.

So evidence from mainstream media doesn't count. So you want evidence that trump is racist from pro-trump outlets.

Yep. That seems like a genuine statement and not just an excuse to deny the obvious.

We have proof. You just don't care.

[American Princedoms]

Things are so up in the air that trying to make predictions right now is even more of a crapshoot than it normally is. The GOP failing due to demographics assumes an unchanging state of affairs, in a sense, and while that's always a dangerous assumption, the volatile state that the democrats seem to be in right now makes that assumption even more dangerous.

[Djuph]

The demographics won't matter as much as the turnout. And the GOP has/d a bucketfull of tricks to depress turnout among voters who might not vote for the GOP.

[Djuph]

On the other hand: the GOP will quickly regain its position once the Democratic Party splits up. And that won't take long. Either the left leaves, or the blue dog/ donor class/ millionaire constituence. The twine have met, and it's still not going well.

[US-SSR]

On the other hand: the GOP will quickly regain its position once the Democratic Party splits up. And that won't take long. Either the left leaves, or the blue dog/ donor class/ millionaire constituence. The twine have met, and it's still not going well.

Or: the Republicans go the way of the Whigs and the new two-party system is corporatist Democrats vs. The Squad.

[US-SSR]

It is racist and many take it as such. So is calling Baltimore a dirty rat infested place no human would want to live in.

There have been stories of local candidates for municipal and county office making comments about keeping their communities white. They arent even being subtle anymore

No, telling anti-Americans that they can go back to their country if they don't like it here is NOT racist. Also, Baltimore (at least the part to which Trump was referring) is a "dirty rat-infested place no human would want to live in".

Also, is there any evidence that the local candidates really made comments about "keeping their communities white"? Even so, what was the context?

Remember that time Trump refused to rent to black people?

Again, context matters. Just because somebody refuses to rent to a group of people with a specific race doesn't necessarily mean that that person is racist. There could be other reasons, and it is important to assume someone is innocent until proven beyond reasonable doubt guilty.

Dude. Refusing to rent to a group of people of a specific race is the very definition of racism. And as for the Trumps, father and son were both proven beyond reasonable doubt guilty. Why do they hate America so?

[The Emerald Legion]

On the other hand: the GOP will quickly regain its position once the Democratic Party splits up. And that won't take long. Either the left leaves, or the blue dog/ donor class/ millionaire constituence. The twine have met, and it's still not going well.

Or: the Republicans go the way of the Whigs and the new two-party system is corporatist Democrats vs. The Squad.

The Squad ain't anywhere near popular enough to make national party level.

[Fahran]

The Squad ain't anywhere near popular enough to make national party level.

>Supporting the Squad over successful and veteran politicians like Pelosi

They'd get steam-rolled by the mainstream Democrats, joined in this situation by Republicans who would likely move them closer to the American center. It's still hilarious that AOC's go-to response when Pelosi sidelined her to get things done was that Pelosi was being racist. No competent party leader is going to let young radicals dictate on policy. There's a process in place.

[Esheaun Stroakuss]

We will have to wait and see.

[Fahran]

Yes. As is the rest of the world.

11/10 It was clever and I laughed.

[Polszcza]

Poland will save the GOP after building and paying for Fort Trump using American loans.

[San Lumen]

Poland will save the GOP after building and paying for Fort Trump using American loans.

what?

[Fahran]

Poland will save the GOP after building and paying for Fort Trump using American loans.

what?

And then the Winged Hussars arrived.

[San Lumen]

what?

And then the Winged Hussars arrived.

I'm lost

[Diopolis]

And then the Winged Hussars arrived.

I'm lost

It’s from a song about polish soldiers lifting the siege of Vienna.

[Bear Stearns]

Or: the Republicans go the way of the Whigs and the new two-party system is corporatist Democrats vs. The Squad.

The Squad ain't anywhere near popular enough to make national party level.

I hope Russia nukes us. Hit my town first!

[Diopolis]

The Squad ain't anywhere near popular enough to make national party level.

I hope Russia nukes us. Hit my town first!

I knew I’ve been stockpiling ammo for a reason.