Is the GOP Doomed?

[Bear Stearns]

The GOP is always doomed. We were "doomed" when Obama got elected.

Anyway, minorities aren't pre-programmed to vote Democrat.

No, but they are more likely to favor economic leftism* and social justice stuff.

*The current fracture in the Democratic Party over progressivism and moderate liberalism has largely been a racial divide, with white Democrats and Jews seeming to favor the moderates and PoCs seeming to favor the progressives.

[Luna Amore]

What do you make of it, NSG?

You're forgetting the big bad variable that by 2045, our sea levels are going to have risen by about 200 feet, global agriculture will be devastated, starvation will be common, and everybody is going to be way more fucking hostile to each other in general than today. Don't be surprised if the republican party retains a very large percentage of the popular vote because nationalism will be a thing.

The Republicans will increasingly become the party of the whites as white voting continues to converge towards a white voting bloc. I don't know the fate of the Republican Party as an organization, but white conservative values will be doomed, that is for certain.

By the time whites are actually a minority of the entire population, the United States will be so fractured that it probably won't even matter.

I agree.
I predict that, regardless of the results of the 2020 election, Trump will be the last Republican President.

This thread has got some real comedians.

Gotta figure out how to save these posts for posterity because I don't think NS will be around in 2045.

[Nova Cyberia]

The GOP is always doomed. We were "doomed" when Obama got elected.

Anyway, minorities aren't pre-programmed to vote Democrat.

No, no they aren't. But the majority of them do. Consistently. Those demographics may change, but I doubt they will.

The GOP needs to do more outreach to those communities. Hispanics and blacks are actually pretty socially conservative. The GOP is just shit at reaching out to them.

[Bear Stearns]

When whites are a minority, there are a number of possibilities:

1. We become a Brazil-tier country, with a corrupt, nominally right-wing, minority white* elite class ruling over an even more corrupt and violent PoC underclass, that just manages to keep the country together through aggressive policing in areas of economic importance and voter suppression.

2. South Africa - the PoC majority uses their numerical strength to seek retribution against white Americans, whether through the ballot box or otherwise.

3. Break up of the United States

*Probably includes Jews and wealthy Asians

[The World Capitalist Confederation]

Not doomed at all. The Dems are steadily losing their grip on minority voters, and their rhetoric painting the GOP as overtly racist and anti-minority has failed. I would also say that for a lot of the minorities mentioned, especially the Asians, racial identity has no bearing on how they vote - they just happen to live in areas and conditions that would encourage somebody to vote Democrat. The GOP isn't dependent on whites; they're dependent on conservative-minded voters, and many, say, Hispanic people are quite conservative and will likely become more so as they move up the social ladder. This shit isn't about race, even if a shocking-looking all-blue map of "the US election without white people" might make it seem like it is.

I wish I could agree with you, but the data isn’t there. Minorities have voted Democrat for a very long time, and over time they have only become more likely to do so. Furthermore, all generations (we’ll see about Gen Z) have been more and more likely to vote Democrat.
You are right about the Republican Party being reliant on conservatives, and I mentioned that in my opening post. The thing is, the next generations aren’t very conservative, and as a young person, I can attest that most will be brought up to be progressive.

America is gonna become a majority minority America is still gonna be mostly white, just not Anglo white. Most hispanics are white on the census and genetically are mostly European in heritage, so America will still probably be over 60% caucasian, and I believe by this point in time most Americans will view Hispanics as white ethnics skin to Italians or Irish people. Asian Americans will be the next largest group and I doubt they will be voting very far left considering their traditional values. African Americans will still constitute about 13% of the population. Demographics alone cannot predict the voting trend of Americans but if you ask me, I think our party system in general is fracturing at the seams and both parties face destruction from within and without

Well, no. In all of the statistics I referenced Hispanics are counted separately from whites, and aren’t just going to magically assimilate into white European culture. I expect they will maintain a distinct culture and voting habits. Asian Americans have voted consistently Democrat, so the data disagrees with you on that one.

They've been predicting this for years with steadily increasing effective dates. Yeah no.

Why not? Immigrant population is at an all time high and will only increase. (If Trump is reelected and continues to let immigrants in at the same rate he will let in more immigrants than Obama did during his two terms.) Could you refer me to these predictions? I’ve been hearing 2040/50 for a long time.

I mean probably not. No more so than the Democrats.

So both parties are doomed? What happens then?

Based on my observation based-studies of around 50 Gen Zers, I say that they at least generally swing to the left more than the previous generations. 46 identified as centre-left, left-wing or far-left, and the rest identified as far-right. 30 of the 46 identified as anti-capitalist. That's right - 60% of the people surveyed identified as anti-capitalist. Assuming a margin of error of 20%, that's a range of 40-80%. Not specific, yes, but still a very dangerous percentage. It's a stark warning of what is ahead. A socialist revolution might be in the future of the world. BIg claim, yes, but the polls from the millenials already back my results.

[The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile]

This thread has got some real comedians.

Gotta figure out how to save these posts for posterity because I don't think NS will be around in 2045.

You'll see, you'll all see...

Sarcasm aside, the Republicans will likely get locked out of the white house within the next few election cycles, with congress following soon afterward, barring drastic changes in policy.

[Bear Stearns]

No, no they aren't. But the majority of them do. Consistently. Those demographics may change, but I doubt they will.

The GOP needs to do more outreach to those communities. Hispanics and blacks are actually pretty socially conservative. The GOP is just shut at reaching out to them.

What outreach could the GOP do? On the economic front, they'd have to be leftists (non-starter for most conservatives, although some economic nationalist/populism could be somewhat appealing to them.

On the social front? Forget about it. These people are not social conservatives.

[The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile]

When whites are a minority, there are a number of possibilities:

1. We become a Brazil-tier country, with a corrupt, nominally right-wing, minority white* elite class ruling over an even more corrupt and violent PoC underclass, that just manages to keep the country together through aggressive policing in areas of economic importance and voter suppression.

2. South Africa - the PoC majority uses their numerical strength to seek retribution against white Americans, whether through the ballot box or otherwise.

3. Break up of the United States

*Probably includes Jews and wealthy Asians

Yep... So, unfortunately, it seems that number 3 is the best option.

Based on my observation based-studies of around 50 Gen Zers, I say that they at least generally swing to the left more than the previous generations. 46 identified as centre-left, left-wing or far-left, and the rest identified as far-right. 30 of the 46 identified as anti-capitalist. That's right - 60% of the people surveyed identified as anti-capitalist. Assuming a margin of error of 20%, that's a range of 40-80%. Not specific, yes, but still a very dangerous percentage. It's a stark warning of what is ahead. A socialist revolution might be in the future of the world. BIg claim, yes, but the polls from the millenials already back my results.

That is disheartening. Are you affiliated with an actual research project or are these just your personally recorded observations?
If the latter I would be interested to know what area, social class, etc. the observed Gen Z-ers were from.

[San Lumen]

No, no they aren't. But the majority of them do. Consistently. Those demographics may change, but I doubt they will.

The GOP needs to do more outreach to those communities. Hispanics and blacks are actually pretty socially conservative. The GOP is just shit at reaching out to them.

Exactly lets not forget that up until around the early 2000s New York was lean blue state winnable by Republicans.

Arizona is turning blue as well. Maricopa County is slowly going left. when it flips it will take the state with it. A statewide victory is nearly impossible without it.

[Bear Stearns]

The GOP needs to do more outreach to those communities. Hispanics and blacks are actually pretty socially conservative. The GOP is just shit at reaching out to them.

Exactly lets not forget that up until around the early 2000s New York was lean blue state winnable by Republicans.

Because the demographics of New York were quite different, and white liberals in those days were more conservative than they are now.

Also, the New York GOP (not Trump) have been kind of anomaly.

Arizona is turning blue as well. Maricopa County is slowly going left. when it flips it will take the state with it. A statewide victory is nearly impossible without it.

It is turning left not because the people there are suddenly becoming convinced of leftism, but because leftists are moving there from other places.

[San Lumen]

Exactly lets not forget that up until around the early 2000s New York was lean blue state winnable by Republicans.

Because the demographics of New York were quite different, and white liberals in those days were more conservative than they are now.

Also, the New York GOP (not Trump) have been kind of anomaly.

Arizona is turning blue as well. Maricopa County is slowly going left. when it flips it will take the state with it. A statewide victory is nearly impossible without it.

It is turning left not because the people there are suddenly becoming convinced of leftism, but because leftists are moving there from other places.

How have they been an anomaly?

That's part of it but they are turning off key voters in suburban Maricopa. the city of Phoenix leans blue but its not enough to carry the county.

[Nova Cyberia]

The GOP needs to do more outreach to those communities. Hispanics and blacks are actually pretty socially conservative. The GOP is just shut at reaching out to them.

What outreach could the GOP do? On the economic front, they'd have to be leftists (non-starter for most conservatives, although some economic nationalist/populism could be somewhat appealing to them.

On the social front? Forget about it. These people are not social conservatives.

Why do they have to be? Are blacks and Hispanics genetically hardwired to be economically left-wing or something? There are reasons why they support these things.

As for social issues, yes they are. Support for things like gay marriage is lower in black and Hispanic communities than it is in white ones. Whites are primarily the ones who support LGBT issues in America.

[Bear Stearns]

Because the demographics of New York were quite different, and white liberals in those days were more conservative than they are now.

Also, the New York GOP (not Trump) have been kind of anomaly.



It is turning left not because the people there are suddenly becoming convinced of leftism, but because leftists are moving there from other places.

How have they been an anomaly?

That they aren't really conservatives. Nelson Rockefeller was a liberal.

[San Lumen]

What outreach could the GOP do? On the economic front, they'd have to be leftists (non-starter for most conservatives, although some economic nationalist/populism could be somewhat appealing to them.

On the social front? Forget about it. These people are not social conservatives.

Why do they have to be? Are blacks and Hispanics genetically hardwired to be economically left-wing or something? There are reasons why they support these things.

As for social issues, yes they are. Support for things like gay marriage is lower in black and Hispanic communities than it is in white ones. Whites are primarily the ones who support LGBT issues in America.

Yet a referendum to allow same sex marriage passed in Maryland in 2012. The state has the highest percentage of African Americans of any state outside the Deep South.

[The Emerald Legion]

The GOP is always doomed. We were "doomed" when Obama got elected.

Anyway, minorities aren't pre-programmed to vote Democrat.

No, but they are more likely to favor economic leftism* and social justice stuff.

*The current fracture in the Democratic Party over progressivism and moderate liberalism has largely been a racial divide, with white Democrats and Jews seeming to favor the moderates and PoCs seeming to favor the progressives.

Which is a sign of minority racial voting blocs breaking down.

The GOP needs to do more outreach to those communities. Hispanics and blacks are actually pretty socially conservative. The GOP is just shut at reaching out to them.

What outreach could the GOP do? On the economic front, they'd have to be leftists (non-starter for most conservatives, although some economic nationalist/populism could be somewhat appealing to them.

On the social front? Forget about it. These people are not social conservatives.

> Hispanics aren't social conservatives...

> It was the Hispanic branch of my family the flipped their shit about one of our relatives coming out of the closet and are hyper-religious.

> That moment when you realize that more than half of hispanics in the US are Catholics, and Hispanic Catholics are more likely to be very religious than non-Hispanic Catholics by the statistics.

The only thing keeping Hispanics in the Democratic Coalition is race-baiting and the illegal immigration issue which isn't gonna last.

Why do they have to be? Are blacks and Hispanics genetically hardwired to be economically left-wing or something? There are reasons why they support these things.

As for social issues, yes they are. Support for things like gay marriage is lower in black and Hispanic communities than it is in white ones. Whites are primarily the ones who support LGBT issues in America.

Yet a referendum to allow same sex marriage passed in Maryland in 2012. The state has the highest percentage of African Americans of any state outside the Deep South.

African Americans only make up about 30% of our population in Maryland. Whites make up 56%.

[Nova Cyberia]

Why do they have to be? Are blacks and Hispanics genetically hardwired to be economically left-wing or something? There are reasons why they support these things.

As for social issues, yes they are. Support for things like gay marriage is lower in black and Hispanic communities than it is in white ones. Whites are primarily the ones who support LGBT issues in America.

Yet a referendum to allow same sex marriage passed in Maryland in 2012. The state has the highest percentage of African Americans of any state outside the Deep South.

And what were the demographics of those who voted for it? Whites vote more than minorities do. The population percentage doesn't really matter if most of that percentage doesn't fucking vote.

[San Lumen]

Yet a referendum to allow same sex marriage passed in Maryland in 2012. The state has the highest percentage of African Americans of any state outside the Deep South.

And what were the demographics or those who voted for it? Whites vote more than minorities do. The population percentage doesn't really matter if most of that percentage doesn't fucking vote.

Not sure exactly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland_Question_6

African Americans narrowly voted against it according to the link.

[The Emerald Legion]

And what were the demographics or those who voted for it? Whites vote more than minorities do. The population percentage doesn't really matter if most of that percentage doesn't fucking vote.

Not sure exactly

56% white
30% African American
6% Asian
And then other percentages.

[Bear Stearns]

What outreach could the GOP do? On the economic front, they'd have to be leftists (non-starter for most conservatives, although some economic nationalist/populism could be somewhat appealing to them.

On the social front? Forget about it. These people are not social conservatives.

Why do they have to be? Are blacks and Hispanics genetically hardwired to be economically left-wing or something? There are reasons why they support these things.

The reason doesn't matter, it's just the way it is. 30 years of the GOP telling them to embrace individualism and capitalism hasn't really worked.

As for social issues, yes they are. Support for things like gay marriage is lower in black and Hispanic communities than it is in white ones.

Again, not true. Black and Hispanic support for things like gun control, abortion, gay marriage, drug legalization, no prayer ins school, affirmative action, are much higher.

There are some exceptions, such as black Baptists, but religiosity for PoCs rarely translates into social conservatism.

Whites are primarily the ones who support LGBT issues in America.

White liberals are the ones who support it (although its a moot issue now since the majority of the country, regardless of race, now nominally supports gay marriage). But white liberals are not the majority of white people.

[Bear Stearns]

No, but they are more likely to favor economic leftism* and social justice stuff.

*The current fracture in the Democratic Party over progressivism and moderate liberalism has largely been a racial divide, with white Democrats and Jews seeming to favor the moderates and PoCs seeming to favor the progressives.

Which is a sign of minority racial voting blocs breaking down.

It's a sign of racial minorities favoring far-left policies and battling with moderate white liberals over control of the Democratic Party.

What outreach could the GOP do? On the economic front, they'd have to be leftists (non-starter for most conservatives, although some economic nationalist/populism could be somewhat appealing to them.

On the social front? Forget about it. These people are not social conservatives.

> Hispanics aren't social conservatives...

> It was the Hispanic branch of my family the flipped their shit about one of our relatives coming out of the closet and are hyper-religious.

> That moment when you realize that more than half of hispanics in the US are Catholics, and Hispanic Catholics are more likely to be very religious than non-Hispanic Catholics by the statistics.

Anecdotes are great. Hispanics being Catholic =/= doesn't translate into social conservatism. Ironically, the most socially conservative Hispanics are the ones who converted to evangelical Protestantism.

The only thing keeping Hispanics in the Democratic Coalition is race-baiting and the illegal immigration issue which isn't gonna last.

The breakdown of the Democratic coalition is being caused by moderate whites becoming Republicans.

And Hispanics being in favor of illegal immigration is an absolute non-starter for Republicans.

[Purgatio]

A lot of the arguments about how the GOP is doomed because of America's changing demographics often doesn't take into account how much the voting patterns of individual demographics can shift. The changing voting patterns of White and Asian voters in US politics are good examples of this. In 2016, 58% of White voters voted for the Republican candidate, Trump. In contrast, about two decades prior in 1996, White voters were more evenly split between the Democrats and Republicans, with 43% voting for Clinton and 46% voting for Dole. Within that time, White voters shifted from being evenly split between the two parties to a voting bloc where a firm majority supports the Republicans.

During this same time, Asian-American voters shifted in the opposite direction. Asian-Americans used to be a firmly Republican voting bloc. In 1992, 55% of Asian voters supported George Bush Senior, who received only 37% of the overall popular vote. Now, Asian-Americans are famously a firmly Democrat-supporting demographic, with 65% voting for Hillary Clinton in 2016, who received only 48% of the overall popular vote.

All in all, we shouldn't assume that how racial groups vote today will remain the same in future, and therefore extrapolate from there that America becoming majority-minority means the Republicans are 'doomed' given their low support amongst non-white voters. Things can change. In fact, as demographics change I suspect we may end up seeing White-Americans shift towards supporting the GOP in larger majorities than at present, similar to how the overwhelming-majority of non-white voters support one party over the other.

[Bear Stearns]

A lot of the arguments about how the GOP is doomed because of America's changing demographics often doesn't take into account how much the voting patterns of individual demographics can shift. The changing voting patterns of White and Asian voters in US politics are good examples of this. In 2016, 58% of White voters voted for the Republican candidate, Trump. In contrast, about two decades prior in 1996, White voters were more evenly split between the Democrats and Republicans, with 43% voting for Clinton and 46% voting for Dole. Within that time, White voters shifted from being evenly split between the two parties to a voting bloc where a firm majority supports the Republicans.

During this same time, Asian-American voters shifted in the opposite direction. Asian-Americans used to be a firmly Republican voting bloc. In 1992, 55% of Asian voters supported George Bush Senior, who received only 37% of the overall popular vote. Now, Asian-Americans are famously a firmly Democrat-supporting demographic, with 65% voting for Hillary Clinton in 2016, who received only 48% of the overall popular vote.

All in all, we shouldn't assume that how racial groups vote today will remain the same in future, and therefore extrapolate from there that America becoming majority-minority means the Republicans are 'doomed' given their low support amongst non-white voters. Things can change. In fact, as demographics change I suspect we may end up seeing White-Americans shift towards supporting the GOP in larger majorities than at present, similar to how the overwhelming-majority of non-white voters support one party over the other.

Asian Americans becoming Democrats perfectly correlates with them embracing identity politics around the same time.

[The Emerald Legion]

Which is a sign of minority racial voting blocs breaking down.

It's a sign of racial minorities favoring far-left policies and battling with moderate white liberals over control of the Democratic Party.

> Hispanics aren't social conservatives...

> It was the Hispanic branch of my family the flipped their shit about one of our relatives coming out of the closet and are hyper-religious.

> That moment when you realize that more than half of hispanics in the US are Catholics, and Hispanic Catholics are more likely to be very religious than non-Hispanic Catholics by the statistics.

Anecdotes are great. Hispanics being Catholic =/= doesn't translate into social conservatism. Ironically, the most socially conservative Hispanics are the ones who converted to evangelical Protestantism.

The only thing keeping Hispanics in the Democratic Coalition is race-baiting and the illegal immigration issue which isn't gonna last.

The breakdown of the Democratic coalition is being caused by moderate whites becoming Republicans.

And Hispanics being in favor of illegal immigration is an absolute non-starter for Republicans.

The illegal immigration issue will be gone shortly. Again you're pretending that the current status quo is going to persist for the next two decades. That's a ridiculous assumption to make considering it's been an issue for decades already. The political landscape is changing, and the Democrats do not have a path forward. I'm going to be moderately surprised if they even still EXIST by 2040.

[Kaystein]

This thread has got some real comedians.

Gotta figure out how to save these posts for posterity because I don't think NS will be around in 2045.

[Purgatio]

A lot of the arguments about how the GOP is doomed because of America's changing demographics often doesn't take into account how much the voting patterns of individual demographics can shift. The changing voting patterns of White and Asian voters in US politics are good examples of this. In 2016, 58% of White voters voted for the Republican candidate, Trump. In contrast, about two decades prior in 1996, White voters were more evenly split between the Democrats and Republicans, with 43% voting for Clinton and 46% voting for Dole. Within that time, White voters shifted from being evenly split between the two parties to a voting bloc where a firm majority supports the Republicans.

During this same time, Asian-American voters shifted in the opposite direction. Asian-Americans used to be a firmly Republican voting bloc. In 1992, 55% of Asian voters supported George Bush Senior, who received only 37% of the overall popular vote. Now, Asian-Americans are famously a firmly Democrat-supporting demographic, with 65% voting for Hillary Clinton in 2016, who received only 48% of the overall popular vote.

All in all, we shouldn't assume that how racial groups vote today will remain the same in future, and therefore extrapolate from there that America becoming majority-minority means the Republicans are 'doomed' given their low support amongst non-white voters. Things can change. In fact, as demographics change I suspect we may end up seeing White-Americans shift towards supporting the GOP in larger majorities than at present, similar to how the overwhelming-majority of non-white voters support one party over the other.

Asian Americans becoming Democrats perfectly correlates with them embracing identity politics around the same time.

I agree that identity politics is a big factor in that shift, but I also think its important to remember two other important factors that contributed to the Asian-American shift from GOP to Democrat.

First, during this same period a voter re-alignment between the two parties took place in terms of education. Republicans used to be the party of the well-educated, and Democrats the party of the non-college-educated working-class. This divide was pretty clear in 2016, when college graduates split in favour of Hillary Clinton 49-45, whereas those with only a high school education or less voted for Trump 51-45. In contrast, two decades prior in 1996, the trend was the exact opposite, college graduates voted for Bob Dole over Bill Clinton 46-44, whereas Clinton won those with a high schol education or less by 59-28. This demographic shift is significant given that Asian-Americans are disproportionately overrepresented in the college graduate population compared to their percentage of the overall US population, hence a shift in support from the college-educated from Republican to Democrat is bound to have an impact on how Asian-Americans vote between the two parties.

The other important factor is religion. According to Pew Research, only 42% of Asian-Americans are Christian, the remainder are non-Christian, a significant demographic feature because non-Christians tend to overwhelmingly vote Democrat as well. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 68% of the vote from those with no religion (and according to Pew, 26% of Asian-Americans have no religious affiliation, compared to 15% of the overall population) and she won 58% of the vote of those belonging to religions which are neither Christian nor Jewish.