Is the GOP Doomed?

[Rojava Free State]

The Irish were brown until they were white
The Italians were brown until they were white
The poles were brown until they were white
The Greeks were brown until they were white
The Jews were brown until they were white
Guess what's probably gonna happen with hispanics? Theylll probably integrate into white America like every other group of Caucasian immigrants before them.

It’s not the eighteen hundreds anymore. (Also Poles were definitely not considered “brown.”) All of those groups were quite literally forced to assimilate with one to two generations, because of WASP culture at the time. Not to mention that all of those groups are significantly closer to white American culture than Hispanics.

Already second generation Hispanic Americans are becoming assimilated into america, so I predict by generation 5 their Hispanic identity will be akin to being Irish american.

We shall see. Regardless, it doesn’t really matter. Even if Hispanics became a carbon copy of white voters, so splitting almost 50/50 Red and Blue, Republicans would win only about ~40% of the vote. And I don’t see that happening.

As for the Asian americans, you think they'll keep voting Democratic but it only takes one other race riot in LA to change that.

I really don’t see what you’re getting at. Did a race riot drastically change how Asian Americans voted in the past?

#1 how are they closer to white American culture than hispanics? Hispanics literally are from a European culture about as close to white America as italians or Greeks are.

#2 can't disagree

#3 Asian Americans in the 1980s and 90s actually voted Republican for the most part and may again if the democrats begin their usual excuses for racial unrest should another LA riot happen

[Trollzyn the Infinite]

God I hope so.

[Rojava Free State]

God I hope so.

I really hope both parties fall apart soon. I can't stand either of them and they both have been pedaling a constant stream of terrible ideas for the past several years

[Land of the Trolls]

Nah. The Dems have already lost the blue-collar. It's only a matter of time before they lose the minority vote.

[Trollzyn the Infinite]

God I hope so.

I really hope both parties fall apart soon. I can't stand either of them and they both have been pedaling a constant stream of terrible ideas for the past several years

Reps are the worst of the two by far. GOP isn't even a political party even more, it's just a club for any Right-wing populist eager to sell their soul to the highest bidder. Anyone with class, intellect, or self-respect has either already left in disgust or been reduced to a stage prop. The politicians have been replaced with puppets. Russian puppets, corporate puppets, etc. Whoever will pay them the most. Trumps, Palins, Ryans, and McConnells are becoming the norm.

[Trollzyn the Infinite]

Nah. The Dems have already lost the blue-collar. It's only a matter of time before they lose the minority vote.

As a blue-collar: lmao, no they haven't. Blue-collars are still more likely to vote blue. GOP propaganda won't change that, because GOP policies prove they care even less about us than Dems. Same goes for minorities.

[The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile]

#1 how are they closer to white American culture than hispanics? Hispanics literally are from a European culture about as close to white America as italians or Greeks are.

You speak as if Latinos are just Spaniards who've been transplanted to America, when in reality their ethnicity and culture have heavy native influence.
Crucially, though, those Irish and Polish and Italian immigrants came to America and did not have hardly any communities to build off of, because immigration from their countries had been forbidden throughout most of American history. So, due to the fact that they were, for the most part, on their own in America, and all of the Americans expected them to, they assimilated very quickly.
(There's also the subjective issue that most of them wanted to assimilate, since they were generally fleeing a very backward nation and wanted their children to become Americans. I'm not going to debate you on whether or not that sentiment is present in most Hispanics, but in my personal experience I have not seen it very often.)

Finally is the economic factor. America is fundamentally not the place it was when European nations were the primary source of immigrants. Back then, there were plenty of relatively well-paid jobs that people with little education could get, allowing Irishmen, Poles, Italians, etc. to step up into the middle class within a generation or two.
Today, undereducated Hispanic immigrants do not have such opportunities.

#3 Asian Americans in the 1980s and 90s actually voted Republican for the most part and may again if the democrats begin their usual excuses for racial unrest should another LA riot happen

I can't find any data whatsoever before the 90s but this seems to suggest that Asian Americans have voted mostly Democrat at least since 94.

[Kaystein]

What do you make of it, NSG?

You're forgetting the big bad variable that by 2045, our sea levels are going to have risen by about 200 centimeters, global agriculture is going to be devastated, death by starvation will be common thing in many parts of the world, and everybody is going to be way more fucking hostile to each other in general than today. Whatever form the republican party is in the future, will hold a very large percentage of the popular vote because nationalism will be a thing; Americans will not want to share limited resources with complete foreigners that have little or nothing to contribute in kind.

[Vetalia]

You speak as if Latinos are just Spaniards who've been transplanted to America, when in reality their ethnicity and culture have heavy native influence.
Crucially, though, those Irish and Polish and Italian immigrants came to America and did not have hardly any communities to build off of, because immigration from their countries had been forbidden throughout most of American history. So, due to the fact that they were, for the most part, on their own in America, and all of the Americans expected them to, they assimilated very quickly.
(There's also the subjective issue that most of them wanted to assimilate, since they were generally fleeing a very backward nation and wanted their children to become Americans. I'm not going to debate you on whether or not that sentiment is present in most Hispanics, but in my personal experience I have not seen it very often.)

Actually, that's another interesting point to consider - the voting patterns of white Hispanics vs. mixed-race and black Hispanics. However, that's not really true about the Irish/Polish/Italian immigrants; they did establish their own ethnic communities after immigrating that were often organized along religious lines as all three were overwhelmingly Catholic. E.g. there was the Italian parish, the Polish parish and the Irish parish in most towns and cities; the Irish were already partially assimilated because of the influence of England and later Great Britain on Ireland.

That being said, the economic factor you mentioned is a major driver of the decrease and even reversal in immigration from Mexico in recent years; if economic and political conditions continue to improve in Central and South America that will further slow the immigration from those countries.

[Kowani]

Democrats typically have less children than republicans. They are more apt to have lifestyles that do not produce children, support abortion and other population control measures, and have a higher support for education, which reduces the average number of children. Democrat survival depends increasingly upon immigrants who on average have more children. Id say if anything the Democratic party, who is steadily losing the blue collar vote is more apt to die or split apart due to their policies.

Calling thw Republican party the party of Trump may be accurate only if you ignore the cause. At thw moment, it is more accurate to call it the party of the anti-leftists.

But 2045 is a long long way away and if 2016 is any indicator, anything can happen. The democrats predictions on things assume everything stays the same as it currently is, which is a fallacy. Heck, I remwmber them saying by 2020, there would be no Ozone layer, florida would be flooded, and mankind would be much closer to being one race. So, This article is really nothing more significant than a few cherry picked statistics and a conclusion which gives the base a false sense of hope.

This is a microcosm of everything wrong with America.

[Myrensis]

We're not that lucky. Eventually when voter suppression, gerrymandering, and the electoral college aren't enough to offset the fact that every minority group in the country and everyone under the age of 50 leans Democrat, the GOP will have to transform itself into some new more palatable form of malignant cancer to carry on the conservative dream of dragging the entire country back to some warped and white-washed delusion of the "good old days" when music was good, politicians were noble, America was paradise, , and straight white men didn't have to worry about being back talked by mouthy women and uppity minorities

[The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile]

One statistic I would be interested to see, though, is how the political affiliations for Hispanic (and Asian) voters changes over time; i.e. immigrants vs. first generation citizens vs. second generation and so on.

The Hispanic population increased massively in the last 40 years so a very large percentage of that population is comprised of immigrants; most likely immigration from the Hispanic world is going to slow significantly over time as a result of demographic changes which will ultimately produce a declining population in those countries. Already immigration from Mexico has declined massively as a result of economic development and other domestic factors reducing the impetus to migrate; recently in fact more Mexicans were emigrating from the US than immigrating. By 2050 the profile will have shifted significantly towards first and second generation Hispanics.

It would also be interesting to see if there is a significant increase in migration from Africa and the impact that would have.

I would not anticipate a significant shift in the non-Hispanic white and black voters in this timeframe barring major changes to the party platforms

You are correct that Mexican immigration is slipping (although the only source I could find about more Mexican-American emigrants than immigrants was rather dated) and Asian immigration increasing, but immigration from other Hispanic countries is increasing, too.

I agree that it will be very interesting to see how the political landscape changes within the coming decades.

Actually, that's another interesting point to consider - the voting patterns of white Hispanics vs. mixed-race and black Hispanics. However, that's not really true about the Irish/Polish/Italian immigrants; they did establish their own ethnic communities after immigrating that were often organized along religious lines as all three were overwhelmingly Catholic. E.g. there was the Italian parish, the Polish parish and the Irish parish in most towns and cities; the Irish were already partially assimilated because of the influence of England and later Great Britain on Ireland.

That's only really true about the Italians. Of course, there are exceptions, but generally the Poles were very mobile and highly unlikely to develop sedentary communities of their own. But I digress, we're getting off subject.

That being said, the economic factor you mentioned is a major driver of the decrease and even reversal in immigration from Mexico in recent years; if economic and political conditions continue to improve in Central and South America that will further slow the immigration from those countries.

I believe the main reason Mexican immigrants leave the U.S. is for family reunification, but I concur that that would also be a significant reason.

[Rojava Free State]

We're not that lucky. Eventually when voter suppression, gerrymandering, and the electoral college aren't enough to offset the fact that every minority group in the country and everyone under the age of 50 leans Democrat, the GOP will have to transform itself into some new more palatable form of malignant cancer to carry on the conservative dream of dragging the entire country back to some warped and white-washed delusion of the "good old days" when straight white men didn't have to worry about being back talked by mouthy women and uppity minorities.

All the GOP really has to do to stay in power is be the corporatist party. The real determination of their chance of survival is if they can convince wealthy donors and wall street to keep supporting them

[Vetalia]

You are correct that Mexican immigration is slipping (although the only source I could find about more Mexican-American emigrants than immigrants was rather dated) and Asian immigration increasing, but immigration from other Hispanic countries is increasing, too.

I agree that it will be very interesting to see how the political landscape changes within the coming decades.

True, but in the long term the demographics of Latin America are pointing towards aging and population decline similar to those of the US and Mexico. The main driver of immigration these days is Central America but they just plain don't have the kind of population Mexico does to make a significant impact on immigration.

That's only really true about the Italians. Of course, there are exceptions, but generally the Poles were very mobile and highly unlikely to develop sedentary communities of their own. But I digress, we're getting off subject.

Polish too, and even moreso than the Italians...in fact there's the Polish National Catholic Church that broke away from the Roman Catholic Church due to the lack of Polish-speaking priests back in the early 1900s. Ironically the Polish parishes were founded by German and Italian bishops. But good point, let's keep it on track.

I believe the main reason Mexican immigrants leave the U.S. is for family reunification, but I concur that that would also be a significant reason.

It's a combination of those reasons; when economic conditions in Mexico have improved so much in recent years and job opportunities are less than they used to be in the US. why would you separate yourself from your family to emigrate to a totally different place where you're alone, culturally isolated and unable to speak the dominant language? That would be like me emigrating to Japan to earn a few thousand more per year.

[The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile]

All the GOP really has to do to stay in power is be the corporatist party. The real determination of their chance of survival is if they can convince wealthy donors and wall street to keep supporting them

Even if the population becomes overwhelmingly against such policies? In this scenario would they just blatantly rig every single election?

[Bear Stearns]

The Republicans will increasingly become the party of the whites as white voting continues to converge towards a white voting bloc. I don't know the fate of the Republican Party as an organization, but white conservative values will be doomed, that is for certain.

By the time whites are actually a minority of the entire population, the United States will be so fractured that it probably won't even matter.

[Bear Stearns]

We're not that lucky. Eventually when voter suppression, gerrymandering, and the electoral college aren't enough to offset the fact that every minority group in the country and everyone under the age of 50 leans Democrat, the GOP will have to transform itself into some new more palatable form of malignant cancer to carry on the conservative dream of dragging the entire country back to some warped and white-washed delusion of the "good old days" when straight white men didn't have to worry about being back talked by mouthy women and uppity minorities.

All the GOP really has to do to stay in power is be the corporatist party. The real determination of their chance of survival is if they can convince wealthy donors and wall street to keep supporting them

Republicans have been the corporatist party since the 1930s and its going to do fuck all for them going forward. Big money supports Democrats these days.

[The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile]

The Republicans will increasingly become the party of the whites as white voting continues to converge towards a white voting bloc. I don't know the fate of the Republican Party as an organization, but white conservative values will be doomed, that is for certain.

By the time whites are actually a minority of the entire population, the United States will be so fractured that it probably won't even matter.

I agree.
I predict that, regardless of the results of the 2020 election, Trump will be the last Republican President.

[San Lumen]

We're not that lucky. Eventually when voter suppression, gerrymandering, and the electoral college aren't enough to offset the fact that every minority group in the country and everyone under the age of 50 leans Democrat, the GOP will have to transform itself into some new more palatable form of malignant cancer to carry on the conservative dream of dragging the entire country back to some warped and white-washed delusion of the "good old days" when music was good, politicians were noble, America was paradise, , and straight white men didn't have to worry about being back talked by mouthy women and uppity minorities

voter suppression and gerrymandering can only go so far. Plus if Texas was to go blue they are doomed as a party as there is no path for them to White House without it.

[Bear Stearns]

Also the idea that Hispanics are "natural conservatives" due to their Catholicism or supposedly family values (whatever that means) is a myth. Hispanics both overwhelmingly favor social liberalism and economic populism. Republicans could support open borders and they still wouldn't get support from them.

Ironically, Trump garnered the highest Hispanic support for Republicans since Reagan.

[Nova Cyberia]

The GOP is always doomed. We were "doomed" when Obama got elected.

Anyway, minorities aren't pre-programmed to vote Democrat.

[The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile]

voter suppression and gerrymandering can only go so far. Plus if Texas was to go blue they are doomed as a party as there is no path for them to White House without it.

I agree, the biggest thing here isn't necessarily that there are going to be more minority voters, but that those voters are going to be able to turn Texas and make other states like Florida, Michigan, etc., go perma-blue. So an electoral college win will become harder and harder, eventually impossible within a few election cycles.

[Nova Cyberia]

We're not that lucky. Eventually when voter suppression, gerrymandering, and the electoral college aren't enough to offset the fact that every minority group in the country and everyone under the age of 50 leans Democrat, the GOP will have to transform itself into some new more palatable form of malignant cancer to carry on the conservative dream of dragging the entire country back to some warped and white-washed delusion of the "good old days" when music was good, politicians were noble, America was paradise, , and straight white men didn't have to worry about being back talked by mouthy women and uppity minorities

I'm sure we'd be much better off with a one-party Democrat state, eh?

The only ones dragging this country down are partisans like you.

[The Emerald Legion]

The Irish were brown until they were white
The Italians were brown until they were white
The poles were brown until they were white
The Greeks were brown until they were white
The Jews were brown until they were white
Guess what's probably gonna happen with hispanics? Theylll probably integrate into white America like every other group of Caucasian immigrants before them.

It’s not the eighteen hundreds anymore. (Also Poles were definitely not considered “brown.”) All of those groups were quite literally forced to assimilate with one to two generations, because of WASP culture at the time. Not to mention that all of those groups are significantly closer to white American culture than Hispanics.

Already second generation Hispanic Americans are becoming assimilated into america, so I predict by generation 5 their Hispanic identity will be akin to being Irish american.

We shall see. Regardless, it doesn’t really matter. Even if Hispanics became a carbon copy of white voters, so splitting almost 50/50 Red and Blue, Republicans would win only about ~40% of the vote. And I don’t see that happening.

As for the Asian americans, you think they'll keep voting Democratic but it only takes one other race riot in LA to change that.

I really don’t see what you’re getting at. Did a race riot drastically change how Asian Americans voted in the past?

I mean, my Aunt is literally a Guatemalan immigrant. Aside from a few fun traditions, both of my cousins are about as white-bread american as can be. Hispanic culture is basically old school christian conservative culture just with a different language and a tendency towards being catholic rather than protestant.

The reason they come out in force for the Democrats is because the Democrats have been deliberately importing hispanic voters and then setting up a shitty situation where their family is in a legal grey zone where their livelyhoods could get wiped out at any moment if someone decided to actually enforce the law then race-baiting the shit out of people who want to just enforce the law.

Which is the other issue, Democratic use of Racial Blocs isn't sustainable and will likely collapse soon. They've race-baited shamelessly for years and people are sick of it, particularly since typically they don't actually do anything to HELP those people.

[The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile]

The GOP is always doomed. We were "doomed" when Obama got elected.

Anyway, minorities aren't pre-programmed to vote Democrat.

No, no they aren't. But the majority of them do. Consistently. Those demographics may change, but I doubt they will.