It is commonly known that America is rapidly becoming more and more diverse. Specifically, during the 2040s white Americans will most likely become a minority.
The Houston Chronicle recently wrote:
Census Bureau projections show that the U.S. population will be “majority-minority” sometime between 2040 and 2050. Our research suggests that this will happen around 2044. Indeed, in 2020, there are projected to be more nonwhite children than white children in the U.S.
See also this Brookings article.
This interested me primarily because of the effects it will have on our elections. It is well known that the voting core of the Republic Party is white; 88% of those who voted for Trump in 2016 were white, and the same is true for Romney's voters in 2012. Only 60% of Hillary Clinton's supporters were white, proving that the Democratic Party is much less dependent on the white vote.
Finally, let me illustrate the failure of the Republican Party when it comes to attracting minority voters. This from the Pew Research Center: 54% of whites vote Republican, compared to 29% of Hispanics, 23% of Asians, and only 9% of African Americans.
Based on this graph:
and some quick math (hopefully I didn't miscalculate), this means that by 2045, so long as these demographics do not significantly shift, the Republican Party will only be able to muster ~37% of the popular vote, compared to 46% in 2016 and 47% in 2012. This might not seem like much, but it will be compounded by Texas, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania becoming purple and then blue states.
In short, by 2045, unless things drastically change, it will become almost statistically impossible for a Republican candidate to win the Presidency.
What do you make of it, NSG? Do you think that these census projections are just off, or that minorities will begin voting Republican in greater numbers?
Most importantly, how do you think the Republican Party will react to these changing demographics? Will they be able to successfully appeal to minorities or somehow reverse shifting demographics? Do you think that, if the Republican Party begins to collapse, a new party might step up to oppose the Democrats?
I believe that all of this will happen. The Republicans have, time and time again, failed to make inroads with the now minorities, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. I think it may be possible for the GOP to win larger portions of the Hispanic vote, but ultimately, I don't see them being able to overcome the demographic shift we're about to see. The GOP's strongest supporters are Christian whites, and that demographic is going to become smaller and smaller as time goes on, so the GOP is essentially stuck between a rock and a hard place. If it wants to attract new voters, it will have to become more progressive, but by doing so, it will betray its core supporters.
I am curious to see if a new, more progressive right-wing party will step up to challenge the Democrats once the GOP starts to slip.