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Is the GOP Doomed?

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The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile
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Is the GOP Doomed?

Postby The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:19 pm

Hello all, this is a subject which has interested me for some time.

It is commonly known that America is rapidly becoming more and more diverse. Specifically, during the 2040s white Americans will most likely become a minority.
The Houston Chronicle recently wrote:
Census Bureau projections show that the U.S. population will be “majority-minority” sometime between 2040 and 2050. Our research suggests that this will happen around 2044. Indeed, in 2020, there are projected to be more nonwhite children than white children in the U.S.

See also this Brookings article.

This interested me primarily because of the effects it will have on our elections. It is well known that the voting core of the Republic Party is white; 88% of those who voted for Trump in 2016 were white, and the same is true for Romney's voters in 2012. Only 60% of Hillary Clinton's supporters were white, proving that the Democratic Party is much less dependent on the white vote.

Finally, let me illustrate the failure of the Republican Party when it comes to attracting minority voters. This from the Pew Research Center: 54% of whites vote Republican, compared to 29% of Hispanics, 23% of Asians, and only 9% of African Americans.
Based on this graph:
Image

and some quick math (hopefully I didn't miscalculate), this means that by 2045, so long as these demographics do not significantly shift, the Republican Party will only be able to muster ~37% of the popular vote, compared to 46% in 2016 and 47% in 2012. This might not seem like much, but it will be compounded by Texas, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania becoming purple and then blue states.

In short, by 2045, unless things drastically change, it will become almost statistically impossible for a Republican candidate to win the Presidency.

What do you make of it, NSG? Do you think that these census projections are just off, or that minorities will begin voting Republican in greater numbers?
Most importantly, how do you think the Republican Party will react to these changing demographics? Will they be able to successfully appeal to minorities or somehow reverse shifting demographics? Do you think that, if the Republican Party begins to collapse, a new party might step up to oppose the Democrats?

I believe that all of this will happen. The Republicans have, time and time again, failed to make inroads with the now minorities, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. I think it may be possible for the GOP to win larger portions of the Hispanic vote, but ultimately, I don't see them being able to overcome the demographic shift we're about to see. The GOP's strongest supporters are Christian whites, and that demographic is going to become smaller and smaller as time goes on, so the GOP is essentially stuck between a rock and a hard place. If it wants to attract new voters, it will have to become more progressive, but by doing so, it will betray its core supporters.
I am curious to see if a new, more progressive right-wing party will step up to challenge the Democrats once the GOP starts to slip.
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The River Brazos
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Postby The River Brazos » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:22 pm

Its no more doomed then the Democrats just because an article that a person wrote doesn't mean it will happen I could say the Democrats are doomed if they keep moving to the far left alienating there core blue collar voters. but over all your point to all this is what?

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The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile
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Postby The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:25 pm

The River Brazos wrote:Its no more doomed then the Democrats just because an article that a person wrote doesn't mean it will happen I could say the Democrats are doomed if they keep moving to the far left alienating there core blue collar voters. but over all your point to all this is what?

It's not just "an article that a person wrote." It's an observable trend, and I linked numerous articles, graphs, and surveys to demonstrate it. The Democrats are most definitely not doomed because they have done a very good job winning over minority groups such as African Americans and Hispanics (and generally just all minorities). On the other hand, Republicans have not done any of those things, instead appealing to their core supporters- white people.

So, it is logical to conclude that as white people become a minority- so will Republicans.
My point is asking people what they make of it and how they think the political landscape will change to accommodate this demographic shift.
Last edited by The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile on Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Capilean News (Updated 6 August)
Where is the horse gone? Where the warrior?
Where is the treasure-giver? Where are the seats at the feast?
Where are the revels in the hall?
Alas for the bright cup! Alas for the mailed warrior!
Alas for the splendour of the prince!
How that time has passed away, dark under the cover of night, as if it never were.

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The Great-German Empire
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Postby The Great-German Empire » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:31 pm

Not doomed at all. The Dems are steadily losing their grip on minority voters, and their rhetoric painting the GOP as overtly racist and anti-minority has failed. I would also say that for a lot of the minorities mentioned, especially the Asians, racial identity has no bearing on how they vote - they just happen to live in areas and conditions that would encourage somebody to vote Democrat. The GOP isn't dependent on whites; they're dependent on conservative-minded voters, and many, say, Hispanic people are quite conservative and will likely become more so as they move up the social ladder. This shit isn't about race, even if a shocking-looking all-blue map of "the US election without white people" might make it seem like it is.
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Postby Rojava Free State » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:32 pm

America is gonna become a majority minority America is still gonna be mostly white, just not Anglo white. Most hispanics are white on the census and genetically are mostly European in heritage, so America will still probably be over 60% caucasian, and I believe by this point in time most Americans will view Hispanics as white ethnics skin to Italians or Irish people. Asian Americans will be the next largest group and I doubt they will be voting very far left considering their traditional values. African Americans will still constitute about 13% of the population. Demographics alone cannot predict the voting trend of Americans but if you ask me, I think our party system in general is fracturing at the seams and both parties face destruction from within and without
Last edited by Rojava Free State on Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Diopolis » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:35 pm

They've been predicting this for years with steadily increasing effective dates. Yeah no.
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Postby Highever » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:37 pm

I mean probably not. No more so than the Democrats.
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Postby Borovan entered the region as he » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:42 pm

GOP will face issues and will likely have to cater to moderates. Seems like GOP historically face trends where they have shift from conservative to relatively moderate and back from the early 1900s to after GD and the 1960s but back again in the 1980s and 2010s. But really if a third of Latinos are considered to vote GOP GOP is not doomed

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Postby The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:48 pm

The Great-German Empire wrote:Not doomed at all. The Dems are steadily losing their grip on minority voters, and their rhetoric painting the GOP as overtly racist and anti-minority has failed. I would also say that for a lot of the minorities mentioned, especially the Asians, racial identity has no bearing on how they vote - they just happen to live in areas and conditions that would encourage somebody to vote Democrat. The GOP isn't dependent on whites; they're dependent on conservative-minded voters, and many, say, Hispanic people are quite conservative and will likely become more so as they move up the social ladder. This shit isn't about race, even if a shocking-looking all-blue map of "the US election without white people" might make it seem like it is.

I wish I could agree with you, but the data isn’t there. Minorities have voted Democrat for a very long time, and over time they have only become more likely to do so. Furthermore, all generations (we’ll see about Gen Z) have been more and more likely to vote Democrat.
You are right about the Republican Party being reliant on conservatives, and I mentioned that in my opening post. The thing is, the next generations aren’t very conservative, and as a young person, I can attest that most will be brought up to be progressive.
Rojava Free State wrote:America is gonna become a majority minority America is still gonna be mostly white, just not Anglo white. Most hispanics are white on the census and genetically are mostly European in heritage, so America will still probably be over 60% caucasian, and I believe by this point in time most Americans will view Hispanics as white ethnics skin to Italians or Irish people. Asian Americans will be the next largest group and I doubt they will be voting very far left considering their traditional values. African Americans will still constitute about 13% of the population. Demographics alone cannot predict the voting trend of Americans but if you ask me, I think our party system in general is fracturing at the seams and both parties face destruction from within and without

Well, no. In all of the statistics I referenced Hispanics are counted separately from whites, and aren’t just going to magically assimilate into white European culture. I expect they will maintain a distinct culture and voting habits. Asian Americans have voted consistently Democrat, so the data disagrees with you on that one.
Diopolis wrote:They've been predicting this for years with steadily increasing effective dates. Yeah no.

Why not? Immigrant population is at an all time high and will only increase. (If Trump is reelected and continues to let immigrants in at the same rate he will let in more immigrants than Obama did during his two terms.) Could you refer me to these predictions? I’ve been hearing 2040/50 for a long time.
Highever wrote:I mean probably not. No more so than the Democrats.

So both parties are doomed? What happens then?
Capilean News (Updated 6 August)
Where is the horse gone? Where the warrior?
Where is the treasure-giver? Where are the seats at the feast?
Where are the revels in the hall?
Alas for the bright cup! Alas for the mailed warrior!
Alas for the splendour of the prince!
How that time has passed away, dark under the cover of night, as if it never were.

The Wanderer

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The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile
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Postby The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:50 pm

Borovan entered the region as he wrote:GOP will face issues and will likely have to cater to moderates. Seems like GOP historically face trends where they have shift from conservative to relatively moderate and back from the early 1900s to after GD and the 1960s but back again in the 1980s and 2010s. But really if a third of Latinos are considered to vote GOP GOP is not doomed

I agree that the GOP’s best bet will be conservative Hispanics. I don’t think it’ll be enough, however.
EDIT: Also, I doubt that the GOP will ever be able to switch back to conservatism.
Last edited by The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile on Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Capilean News (Updated 6 August)
Where is the horse gone? Where the warrior?
Where is the treasure-giver? Where are the seats at the feast?
Where are the revels in the hall?
Alas for the bright cup! Alas for the mailed warrior!
Alas for the splendour of the prince!
How that time has passed away, dark under the cover of night, as if it never were.

The Wanderer

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Highever
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Postby Highever » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:51 pm

The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile wrote:
The Great-German Empire wrote:Not doomed at all. The Dems are steadily losing their grip on minority voters, and their rhetoric painting the GOP as overtly racist and anti-minority has failed. I would also say that for a lot of the minorities mentioned, especially the Asians, racial identity has no bearing on how they vote - they just happen to live in areas and conditions that would encourage somebody to vote Democrat. The GOP isn't dependent on whites; they're dependent on conservative-minded voters, and many, say, Hispanic people are quite conservative and will likely become more so as they move up the social ladder. This shit isn't about race, even if a shocking-looking all-blue map of "the US election without white people" might make it seem like it is.

I wish I could agree with you, but the data isn’t there. Minorities have voted Democrat for a very long time, and over time they have only become more likely to do so. Furthermore, all generations (we’ll see about Gen Z) have been more and more likely to vote Democrat.
You are right about the Republican Party being reliant on conservatives, and I mentioned that in my opening post. The thing is, the next generations aren’t very conservative, and as a young person, I can attest that most will be brought up to be progressive.
Rojava Free State wrote:America is gonna become a majority minority America is still gonna be mostly white, just not Anglo white. Most hispanics are white on the census and genetically are mostly European in heritage, so America will still probably be over 60% caucasian, and I believe by this point in time most Americans will view Hispanics as white ethnics skin to Italians or Irish people. Asian Americans will be the next largest group and I doubt they will be voting very far left considering their traditional values. African Americans will still constitute about 13% of the population. Demographics alone cannot predict the voting trend of Americans but if you ask me, I think our party system in general is fracturing at the seams and both parties face destruction from within and without

Well, no. In all of the statistics I referenced Hispanics are counted separately from whites, and aren’t just going to magically assimilate into white European culture. I expect they will maintain a distinct culture and voting habits. Asian Americans have voted consistently Democrat, so the data disagrees with you on that one.
Diopolis wrote:They've been predicting this for years with steadily increasing effective dates. Yeah no.

Why not? Immigrant population is at an all time high and will only increase. (If Trump is reelected and continues to let immigrants in at the same rate he will let in more immigrants than Obama did during his two terms.) Could you refer me to these predictions? I’ve been hearing 2040/50 for a long time.
Highever wrote:I mean probably not. No more so than the Democrats.

So both parties are doomed? What happens then?

More like neither party is doomed. Not with how the US political system is.
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Postby The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:54 pm

Highever wrote:More like neither party is doomed. Not with how the US political system is.

Care to elaborate? How do you think the Republicans will avoid this?
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Where is the horse gone? Where the warrior?
Where is the treasure-giver? Where are the seats at the feast?
Where are the revels in the hall?
Alas for the bright cup! Alas for the mailed warrior!
Alas for the splendour of the prince!
How that time has passed away, dark under the cover of night, as if it never were.

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Postby Agarntrop » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:56 pm

I Goddamn fucking hope so. Death to the 2 party system.
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Postby Highever » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:59 pm

The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile wrote:
Highever wrote:More like neither party is doomed. Not with how the US political system is.

Care to elaborate? How do you think the Republicans will avoid this?

Avoid what? As someone else said just because whites will have less of a majority does not mean that the GOP will just cease to exist and be the second half of the two party system in the foreseeable future.
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Postby The Black Forrest » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:59 pm

The GOP really doesn't exist anymore. It's the Trump party.
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Postby Rojava Free State » Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:01 pm

Rojava Free State wrote:America is gonna become a majority minority America is still gonna be mostly white, just not Anglo white. Most hispanics are white on the census and genetically are mostly European in heritage, so America will still probably be over 60% caucasian, and I believe by this point in time most Americans will view Hispanics as white ethnics skin to Italians or Irish people. Asian Americans will be the next largest group and I doubt they will be voting very far left considering their traditional values. African Americans will still constitute about 13% of the population. Demographics alone cannot predict the voting trend of Americans but if you ask me, I think our party system in general is fracturing at the seams and both parties face destruction from within and without

Well, no. In all of the statistics I referenced Hispanics are counted separately from whites, and aren’t just going to magically assimilate into white European culture. I expect they will maintain a distinct culture and voting habits. Asian Americans have voted consistently Democrat, so the data disagrees with you on that one.[/quote]

The Irish were brown until they were white
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Guess what's probably gonna happen with hispanics? Theylll probably integrate into white America like every other group of Caucasian immigrants before them. Already second generation Hispanic Americans are becoming assimilated into america, so I predict by generation 5 their Hispanic identity will be akin to being Irish american.

As for the Asian americans, you think they'll keep voting Democratic but it only takes one other race riot in LA to change that.
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Postby The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile » Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:01 pm

Highever wrote:Avoid what? As someone else said just because whites will have less of a majority does not mean that the GOP will just cease to exist and be the second half of the two party system in the foreseeable future.

White people will not have a majority of any kind, a majority is over 50%. They will have a plurality.
Secondly, I’m not saying that the GOP will just collapse, obviously that won’t happen. But what I am saying is that it will become statistically very difficult for them to achieve much during any elections. And, if these trends continue, then eventually the GOP will be completely obsolete.
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Postby Estanglia » Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:03 pm

Depends on whether or not the GOP shifts to pander to moderates and liberals, and whether or not the Democratic Party lets them.

If they fail to, or are blocked from doing so, then probably.
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Postby Rojava Free State » Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:05 pm

The Black Forrest wrote:The GOP really doesn't exist anymore. It's the Trump party.


The GOP was once the party of cutting spending, Christian values and small government. It now has a president that wants to spend millions on a border wall, cheated on all his wives and clearly has little respect for Christianity (he consistently mocks Mike pence behind closed doors for being an evangelical christian), and seeks to change libel laws to go after "the fake news" (so much for free speech). There also was that time he supported body slamming a reporter.

The Republican party has been taken over by the president. Their principles have been compromised permanently
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Postby Vetalia » Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:11 pm

One statistic I would be interested to see, though, is how the political affiliations for Hispanic (and Asian) voters changes over time; i.e. immigrants vs. first generation citizens vs. second generation and so on.

The Hispanic population increased massively in the last 40 years so a very large percentage of that population is comprised of immigrants; most likely immigration from the Hispanic world is going to slow significantly over time as a result of demographic changes which will ultimately produce a declining population in those countries. Already immigration from Mexico has declined massively as a result of economic development and other domestic factors reducing the impetus to migrate; recently in fact more Mexicans were emigrating from the US than immigrating. By 2050 the profile will have shifted significantly towards first and second generation Hispanics.

It would also be interesting to see if there is a significant increase in migration from Africa and the impact that would have.

I would not anticipate a significant shift in the non-Hispanic white and black voters in this timeframe barring major changes to the party platforms
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Postby Minachia » Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:12 pm

Honestly, both parties are doomed since they're become more radical by the day, even if whites somehow start having more babies than minorities, the party (and its rival) might very well rip itself apart.
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Postby The Grand Duchy Of Nova Capile » Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:12 pm

Rojava Free State wrote:
The Irish were brown until they were white
The Italians were brown until they were white
The poles were brown until they were white
The Greeks were brown until they were white
The Jews were brown until they were white
Guess what's probably gonna happen with hispanics? Theylll probably integrate into white America like every other group of Caucasian immigrants before them.

It’s not the eighteen hundreds anymore. (Also Poles were definitely not considered “brown.”) All of those groups were quite literally forced to assimilate with one to two generations, because of WASP culture at the time. Not to mention that all of those groups are significantly closer to white American culture than Hispanics.
Already second generation Hispanic Americans are becoming assimilated into america, so I predict by generation 5 their Hispanic identity will be akin to being Irish american.

We shall see. Regardless, it doesn’t really matter. Even if Hispanics became a carbon copy of white voters, so splitting almost 50/50 Red and Blue, Republicans would win only about ~40% of the vote. And I don’t see that happening.

As for the Asian americans, you think they'll keep voting Democratic but it only takes one other race riot in LA to change that.

I really don’t see what you’re getting at. Did a race riot drastically change how Asian Americans voted in the past?
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Where is the horse gone? Where the warrior?
Where is the treasure-giver? Where are the seats at the feast?
Where are the revels in the hall?
Alas for the bright cup! Alas for the mailed warrior!
Alas for the splendour of the prince!
How that time has passed away, dark under the cover of night, as if it never were.

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Founded: Feb 06, 2018
Ex-Nation

Postby Rojava Free State » Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:14 pm

Minachia wrote:Honestly, both parties are doomed since they're become more radical by the day, even if whites somehow start having more babies than minorities, the party (and its rival) might very well rip itself apart.


In the end the real powers that be will keep power. Big banks, corporations and the military industry are the real leaders of America
Rojava Free State wrote:Listen yall. I'm only gonna say it once but I want you to remember it. This ain't a world fit for good men. It seems like you gotta be monstrous just to make it. Gotta have a little bit of darkness within you just to survive. You gotta stoop low everyday it seems like. Stoop all the way down to the devil in these times. And then one day you look in the mirror and you realize that you ain't you anymore. You're just another monster, and thanks to your actions, someone else will eventually become as warped and twisted as you. Never forget that the best of us are just the best of a bad lot. Being at the top of a pile of feces doesn't make you anything but shit like the rest. Never forget that.

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Arlenton
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 9100
Founded: Dec 16, 2012
Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Arlenton » Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:14 pm

No. The idea that coalitions will stay the same for decades is hilarious.

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Qon
Civil Servant
 
Posts: 7
Founded: Mar 28, 2019
Ex-Nation

Postby Qon » Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:15 pm

Democrats typically have less children than republicans. They are more apt to have lifestyles that do not produce children, support abortion and other population control measures, and have a higher support for education, which reduces the average number of children. Democrat survival depends increasingly upon immigrants who on average have more children. Id say if anything the Democratic party, who is steadily losing the blue collar vote is more apt to die or split apart due to their policies.

Calling thw Republican party the party of Trump may be accurate only if you ignore the cause. At thw moment, it is more accurate to call it the party of the anti-leftists.

But 2045 is a long long way away and if 2016 is any indicator, anything can happen. The democrats predictions on things assume everything stays the same as it currently is, which is a fallacy. Heck, I remwmber them saying by 2020, there would be no Ozone layer, florida would be flooded, and mankind would be much closer to being one race. So, This article is really nothing more significant than a few cherry picked statistics and a conclusion which gives the base a false sense of hope.
Last edited by Qon on Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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