Lower Nubia wrote:Novus America wrote:
Well one can not predict the future, and sure things can change.
Yes it will put one such power at our door, it already has.
Things will change.Novus America wrote:That is the struggle for this century, the US vs the PRC.
We might lose, but we should try our best not to,
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/US-and- ... ips-to-5th
The current estimations about India put them above the US in terms of GDP by 2050-2070. The reality is that economic power will be concentrated in South-East Asia, especially with the emergence of Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam too.
I also call into question the source who extrapolate that diminished population will hamper growth of the Chinese economy by 2060, however the Chinese will not be idle in promoting childbirth for further economic expansion. It seems shallow that they would not think to do such a thingNovus America wrote:And you should hope so as well, a PRC victory is not to your advantage.
I don’t hope for China, if the EU continues to expand and then federalises, it will by one of the largest economies. We also have to remember the EU has far more potential for growth, especially seeing the least developed eastern states of the Union. It will put my country at a better position being part of one of the largest economies.Novus America wrote:Until 2060 at least that will be the competition barring some revolutionary changes.
Beyond that who knows?
The competition involves all the countries I mentioned, GDP growth is tied to population, the US is not excelled in that department.Novus America wrote:But until 2060 the US vs PRC is the name of the game. Even by then the other trees are small.
And India and more than likely the EU. India’s GDP growth is 6% with little sign of slowing down, while the EU will likely, by 2050, expand to include Turkey, The Balkan states, Ukraine, and maybe even Russia (in a far more distant future). It seems unlikely that the EU has reached peak power at the moment.Novus America wrote:Of course we should continually reassess and make changes as necessary but we have pretty good data predictions up until that point.
China is already growing more rapidly than the US it certainly won’t be long before they outstrip the US in GDP - let alone 2060.Novus America wrote:In terms of population the US is expected to remain number 3 until at least past mid century.
And population growth is rapidly slowing most places.
The US does not vastly outperform other countries in terms of population compared to GDP.Novus America wrote:Actually demographically the US is doing better than most developed countries, though we should take actions to increase our birth rate, immigration and so on as well as seeing if we can incorporate some new states ideally. We can increase our population. Pretty much on demand via immigration.
Sure we absolutely may fall behind, and will not last forever. So we should seek to do what we can to ensure we remain competitive.
Of course, we wouldn’t want the US to lose its edge.
Well if we are alive we shall see.
But I think you grossly overestimate the EU (which you may not be part of) and grossly underestimate the middle income trap.
Most countries will not escape the trap. There is no reason to believe the PRC will.
And Indian economic growth is already slowly too.