UK Politics Thread X: Boris' Big Bonkers Brexit Bash

[Philjia]

The DUP says Boris Johnson's Brexit deal "drives a coach and horses through the Good Friday Agreement" says Nigel Dodds, who of course would never ever consider doing anything that jeopardises peace in Northern Ireland.

[Vassenor]

The DUP says Boris Johnson's Brexit deal "drives a coach and horses through the Good Friday Agreement" says Nigel Dodds, who of course would never ever consider doing anything that jeopardises peace in Northern Ireland.

So what's he done to take a bat to the agreement before?

[The Nihilistic view]

Johnson is going to need quite a few Labour MPs to defy their leader to get this deal agreed. That's assuming all of the tories vote for it.

Cons 288
Lab 245
Scot Nat 35
Independents 35
Lib Dem 19
DUP 10
TIG 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 1

I think quite a lot of the independents will vote for it. I'd say he probably has about 300 votes at the moment before counting Labour rebels. So he needs to find about 20-25 Probably.

[Vassenor]

Johnson is going to need quite a few Labour MPs to defy their leader to get this deal agreed. That's assuming all of the tories vote for it.

Cons 288
Lab 245
Scot Nat 35
Independents 35
Lib Dem 19
DUP 10
TIG 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 1

I think quite a lot of the independents will vote for it. I'd say he probably has about 300 votes at the moment before counting Labour rebels. So he needs to find about 20-25 Probably.

What do you base this assumption on?

[Chan Island]

Johnson is going to need quite a few Labour MPs to defy their leader to get this deal agreed. That's assuming all of the tories vote for it.

Cons 288
Lab 245
Scot Nat 35
Independents 35
Lib Dem 19
DUP 10
TIG 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 1

I think quite a lot of the independents will vote for it. I'd say he probably has about 300 votes at the moment before counting Labour rebels. So he needs to find about 20-25 Probably.

That's a pretty dubious proposition. Most of them are remainers- many even kicked out if the Tory party for being so. Why do you think they'll support the deal?

[Risottia]

Ex-Tory backbencher Sir Oliver Letwin led a successful attempt to allow backbench MPs to amend Boris Johnson's Brexit plans, in a knife-edge vote that passed by 287 votes to 275.

So basically now the EU has to say yes, and accept a deal that maybe the British Parliament will amend or cancel later?

This is so fucking ludicrous.

[Risottia]

Legal challenge to Brexit deal - putting a border in the sea may be illegal.

Well, it can be solved by not putting a border at sea and just laying a minefield instead. The random sinking will count as export tax.

[Gormwood]

AP says Europe went for the deal.

[Hirota]

This MP is right, there are plenty of labour MPs who will lose in a general election if they are not careful.

https://i.imgur.com/PIAdUM3.png

[Fartsniffage]

This MP is right, there are plenty of labour MPs who will lose in a general election if they are not careful.

https://i.imgur.com/PIAdUM3.png

Putting career and party before what an MP actually believes is best for the country. Isn't that how we got into this mess in the first place?

[The Nihilistic view]

I think quite a lot of the independents will vote for it. I'd say he probably has about 300 votes at the moment before counting Labour rebels. So he needs to find about 20-25 Probably.

That's a pretty dubious proposition. Most of them are remainers- many even kicked out if the Tory party for being so. Why do you think they'll support the deal?

They left/got kicked out for not wanting no deal. Here is a deal. They would look pretty stupid turning down a better deal than the one they supported before and that then lead to no deal.

[The Nihilistic view]

Apparently Soames is saying most of the Tory rebels will support the deal.

[Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States]

Apparently Soames is saying most of the Tory rebels will support the deal.

Most is not enough if the DUP does not support. You need to make up the difference through labour, and labour has already shot down the proposal.

[The Nihilistic view]

Apparently Soames is saying most of the Tory rebels will support the deal.

Most is not enough if the DUP does not support. You need to make up the difference through labour, and labour has already shot down the proposal.

I think there could be a decent rebellion on that front. Several have already appealed to their colleagues to back it if they are in leave areas.

[Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States]

The backstop is still in there. Just more complicated. This is May’s deal with very slight alterations to how the Irish border works.

Not really, unless the BBC are lying their pants off..... the EU can't keep the UK in a customs union and Northern Ireland have the power to remove themselves from regulatory alignment. Backstop blown out of the water.

Yeah, there now is a unilateral way to get out of the backstop. That's the only thing that changed. The backstop is still there, it can just be ended unilaterally. Which removes the biggest obstacle, but it is still basically the same as what May had, in principle.

Nothing has been blown out of the water. This is May's deal with very slight alterations with regards to Northern Ireland.

Ex-Tory backbencher Sir Oliver Letwin led a successful attempt to allow backbench MPs to amend Boris Johnson's Brexit plans, in a knife-edge vote that passed by 287 votes to 275.

So basically now the EU has to say yes, and accept a deal that maybe the British Parliament will amend or cancel later?

This is so fucking ludicrous.

And then it has to go back to the EU for ratification, which the EU has to accept unanimously.

[The Nihilistic view]

Not really, unless the BBC are lying their pants off..... the EU can't keep the UK in a customs union and Northern Ireland have the power to remove themselves from regulatory alignment. Backstop blown out of the water.

Yeah, there now is a unilateral way to get out of the backstop. That's the only thing that changed. The backstop is still there, it can just be ended unilaterally. Which removes the biggest obstacle, but it is still basically the same as what May had, in principle.

Nothing has been blown out of the water. This is May's deal with very slight alterations with regards to Northern Ireland.

So basically now the EU has to say yes, and accept a deal that maybe the British Parliament will amend or cancel later?

This is so fucking ludicrous.

And then it has to go back to the EU for ratification, which the EU has to accept unanimously.

The backstop was the whole of the UK was tied into a customs union we could not leave of our own accord, now none of it is. Obviously its exactly the same........ part of me wonders if you ever understood what part of the deal was the problem. This removes 80% of the problem and leaves the other 20% in the hands of NI. That's a huge difference. The backstop does not exist, because if the customs union part has been removed and the single market alignment can be unilaterally left by NI it's not a backstop. It's only a backstop if you can't get out of it without agreement.

[The Nihilistic view]

Even for me it was literally the part where May decided we had to stay in the customs union unless the EU decided we didn't that tipped me over the edge. The commitment to exploring a comprehensive FTA and the way for NI being in control of its fate is a bonus. The FTA commitment in particular is probably the biggest surprise since it seemed much less likely to me.

[Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States]

Yeah, there now is a unilateral way to get out of the backstop. That's the only thing that changed. The backstop is still there, it can just be ended unilaterally. Which removes the biggest obstacle, but it is still basically the same as what May had, in principle.

Nothing has been blown out of the water. This is May's deal with very slight alterations with regards to Northern Ireland.



And then it has to go back to the EU for ratification, which the EU has to accept unanimously.

The backstop was the whole of the UK was tied into a customs union we could not leave of our own accord, now none of it is. Obviously its exactly the same........ part of me wonders if you ever understood what part of the deal was the problem. This removes 80% of the problem and leaves the other 20% in the hands of NI. That's a huge difference. The backstop does not exist, because if the customs union part has been removed and the single market alignment can be unilaterally left by NI it's not a backstop. It's only a backstop if you can't get out of it without agreement.

Even for me it was literally the part where May decided we had to stay in the customs union unless the EU decided we didn't that tipped me over the edge. The commitment to exploring a comprehensive FTA and the way for NI being in control of its fate is a bonus. The FTA commitment in particular is probably the biggest surprise since it seemed much less likely to me.

Hold on a minute... This makes me think that you believe that the backstop applied to the whole of the UK.

Am I correct there?

[Salandriagado]

That's a pretty dubious proposition. Most of them are remainers- many even kicked out if the Tory party for being so. Why do you think they'll support the deal?

They left/got kicked out for not wanting no deal. Here is a deal. They would look pretty stupid turning down a better deal than the one they supported before and that then lead to no deal.

This deal is in no way better than the previous one.

[Vassenor]

That's a pretty dubious proposition. Most of them are remainers- many even kicked out if the Tory party for being so. Why do you think they'll support the deal?

They left/got kicked out for not wanting no deal. Here is a deal. They would look pretty stupid turning down a better deal than the one they supported before and that then lead to no deal.

What makes this objectively a better deal?

[Fartsniffage]

They left/got kicked out for not wanting no deal. Here is a deal. They would look pretty stupid turning down a better deal than the one they supported before and that then lead to no deal.

What makes this objectively a better deal?

NI has control over how long it's subject to EU laws. That is objectively better than the May deal.

[Thermodolia]

What makes this objectively a better deal?

NI has control over how long it's subject to EU laws. That is objectively better than the May deal.

But doesn’t that make a border between parts of the UK? And isn’t that not really wanted?

[True Refuge]

May's deal went down somewhere around 391-242, a majority of 149.

Even if they whip the ~75 Tories who voted against May's deal into voting yes, they still need ~75 votes from crossbenchers since Labour's definitely not going to be supporting it apart from a few rogue MPs.
The SNP with 35 seats is 100% Remain, and the 19 Lib Dems MPs won't vote yes without a second referendum.

That leaves 5 Change UK MPs who are pro-EU and pro-second referendum, 4 Plaid Cymru MPs who are pro-EU, the 1 Green Party MP whose party wants a more specific referendum, and 36 independents including those ex-Tories.

I don't see how the deal can possibly go through at this stage.

[Greed and Death]

NI has control over how long it's subject to EU laws. That is objectively better than the May deal.

But doesn’t that make a border between parts of the UK? And isn’t that not really wanted?

My understanding is that the national government will arm the orange elements of society first then switch the border to being opened with the UK and closed to the EU. With Orange self defense forces patrolling catholic neighborhoods and such.

[Greed and Death]

May's deal went down somewhere around 391-242, a majority of 149.

Even if they whip the ~75 Tories who voted against May's deal into voting yes, they still need ~75 votes from crossbenchers since Labour's definitely not going to be supporting it apart from a few rogue MPs.
The SNP with 35 seats is 100% Remain, and the 19 Lib Dems MPs won't vote yes without a second referendum.

That leaves 5 Change UK MPs who are pro-EU and pro-second referendum, 4 Plaid Cymru MPs who are pro-EU, the 1 Green Party MP whose party wants a more specific referendum, and 36 independents including those ex-Tories.

I don't see how the deal can possibly go through at this stage.

My suspicion is that because he has a deal with the EU he will claim that the Benn act has been Satisfied as the portions mandating an exit extension contravene agreed terms in the deal and the Benn act says he can accept any other date offered by the EU, and therefore this is an acceptance of an EU exit date of either the end of 2020 or October 31st based on Parliament's ratification or none ratification of this deal.

He will likely announce this Saturday just before or just after the vote. I think before as he might get some of the faint of heart Labour MPs to vote yes that way.

Why would you put the deadline on a Saturday 2 days before the court can be opened for business Monday.