What if the Nationalists won the Chinese Civil War?

[Kubra]

With all of China? Ol' Chiang might have kept his dynasty in power, with a China that would look a lot like today's China: a one party state with a strange mix of socialism and capitalism.

Only, y'know, earlier and with different colours.

[Kubra]

Well, the Chinese people would be substantially better off.

It doesn't really take a whole lot to be a better government than the PRC.

I mean "don't do Mao things" really is the lowest bar to set

[Kuominwave]

bump

[Kowani]

Well, the Chinese people would be substantially better off.

It doesn't really take a whole lot to be a better government than the PRC.

I mean "don't do Mao things" really is the lowest bar to set

You have to actively try to do worse.

[Kubra]

I mean "don't do Mao things" really is the lowest bar to set

You have to actively try to do worse.

and if you're actually trying theb it's a *really* high bar

[Mushet]

China would probably be like a big ass Taiwan.

[Pasong Tirad]

I can see China being a lot smaller because of it. Maybe Chiang wouldn't have gone for Tibet, and the Soviets might have held onto more parts of Xinjiang and maybe even Manchuria to act as a buffer. Korea might even be unified because of all this, either that or Manchuria would have taken the PRC's place during the Korean War.

A lot of China's territorial disputes with other countries might still be there, though. The South China Sea dispute, most of all.

But overall I think things might be a lot better for people. A lot more income inequality, but also a lot more political and civil freedoms. Like other posts have mentioned, it might look more like India than SoKor or Japan or even Taiwan.

[EastKekistan]

I mean "don't do Mao things" really is the lowest bar to set

You have to actively try to do worse.

Any ancient Chinese peasant rebel leader was much worse than Mao. However in the modern world only Khmer Rouge was even worse.

[Bombadil]

First off the Vietnam War wouldn't have occurred, Korea would probably be unified and Taiwan would be part of China.

However more interesting would be the impact on Japan, I suspect Japan might have closed itself off somewhat rather than become an economic powerhouse. America would've been flooded with Chinese cars and electronics in the 70's instead.

[Aureumterra]

China would probably be like a big ass Taiwan.

No, China would not be a prosperous democracy, its far too large and would be chaotic similar to India instead.

[First American Empire]

It would have collapsed into a bunch of small countries, most of which would become Soviet or American satellite states. The Nationalists weren't competent enough to stabilize China. At all.

[EastKekistan]

China would probably be like a big ass Taiwan.

No, China would not be a prosperous democracy, its far too large and would be chaotic similar to India instead.

China is actually fairly homogeneous except for Xinjiang and Tibet. I fail to see how it would be as chaotic as India which has thousands of groups that don't tend to intermarry.

[First American Empire]

No, China would not be a prosperous democracy, its far too large and would be chaotic similar to India instead.

China is actually fairly homogeneous except for Xinjiang and Tibet. I fail to see how it would be as chaotic as India which has thousands of groups that don't tend to intermarry.

China's homogeneity makes it more likely to fall to tyranny and authoritarianism. These things cause instability. In India, no single ethnic group is powerful enough to take control and oppress the others, and as a result India isn't facing the problems that the Chinese are with Xinjiang and Tibet.

(It does have problems with a single religion getting too powerful compared to the others, but this is because the British stupidly split off the Muslim parts of India into Pakistan.)

[Tuthina]

No, China would not be a prosperous democracy, its far too large and would be chaotic similar to India instead.

China is actually fairly homogeneous except for Xinjiang and Tibet. I fail to see how it would be as chaotic as India which has thousands of groups that don't tend to intermarry.

While Chinese demographics are more homogeneous than India, in that more than 90% of its population are considered Han Chinese (as opposed to ~3/4 being Indo-Aryan in India), it also has a lot of minorities and (many then, some now) non-Sinicised population. Although it would mean that ethnic tension might be lower (although Han Chinese are quite prone to regionalism), it also meant that the non-Han population probably would be at a disadvantage, especially if they actively resist Sinicisation and/or the government decides to speed it up. ROC policy might not reach the same severity as what PRC are doing in Xinjiang and Tibet, but it would nonetheless cause those groups to be assimilated rather than letting them independent unless protected by a foreign power when China was less unified (Xinjiang during ROC period come to mind).

tl;dr Victorious ROC would not be as chaotic as India, but it would still probably be quite oppressive, especially if we consider that KMT itself was rather authoritarian even after moving to Taiwan, until its dependence on foreign support pushed it towards democratisation. A victorious ROC would not be as dependent as foreign support, and thus its dictatorship under the guise of anti-communism could potentially last longer, maybe even to this day.

[The Hindustani State]

China is actually fairly homogeneous except for Xinjiang and Tibet. I fail to see how it would be as chaotic as India which has thousands of groups that don't tend to intermarry.

China's homogeneity makes it more likely to fall to tyranny and authoritarianism. These things cause instability. In India, no single ethnic group is powerful enough to take control and oppress the others, and as a result India isn't facing the problems that the Chinese are with Xinjiang and Tibet.

(It does have problems with a single religion getting too powerful compared to the others, but this is because the British stupidly split off the Muslim parts of India into Pakistan.)

The Muslims should’ve left and gone to Pakistan, they were foreign invaders in the region anyways. Now they are nothing but political pawns that every party wants to play with.

[Aureumterra]

China's homogeneity makes it more likely to fall to tyranny and authoritarianism. These things cause instability. In India, no single ethnic group is powerful enough to take control and oppress the others, and as a result India isn't facing the problems that the Chinese are with Xinjiang and Tibet.

(It does have problems with a single religion getting too powerful compared to the others, but this is because the British stupidly split off the Muslim parts of India into Pakistan.)

The Muslims should’ve left and gone to Pakistan, they were foreign invaders in the region anyways. Now they are nothing but political pawns that every party wants to play with.

That was what the British intended, but not everyone had the resources to go to Pakistan

[First American Empire]

The Muslims should’ve left and gone to Pakistan, they were foreign invaders in the region anyways. Now they are nothing but political pawns that every party wants to play with.

That was what the British intended, but not everyone had the resources to go to Pakistan

Also, forcing people from their country because of their religion is a crime against humanity.

[Risottia]

The Soviets may have tried to intervene, but it's something we'll never know for sure.

I think the Soviets would have annexed East Turkestan as a Soviet Republic. Inner Mongolia would have been annexed by Mongolia with Soviet support, and possibly Manchuria would have become the "Popular Republic of China", a pro-Soviet buffer country. Then the RoC moves to annex Tibet and gets involved in a war with India.

[-Ocelot-]

Nationalist China is said to be very incompetent, which is why they lost to Mao's much smaller faction.

So my guess would be that a 21st century nationalist China would be weak, poor and fragmented into multiple regions. More or less what the US and Russia wish China would be. Maybe the USSR would have absorbed some of the eastern regions.

[Bienenhalde]

I can see China being a lot smaller because of it. Maybe Chiang wouldn't have gone for Tibet, and the Soviets might have held onto more parts of Xinjiang and maybe even Manchuria to act as a buffer. Korea might even be unified because of all this, either that or Manchuria would have taken the PRC's place during the Korean War.

A lot of China's territorial disputes with other countries might still be there, though. The South China Sea dispute, most of all.

But overall I think things might be a lot better for people. A lot more income inequality, but also a lot more political and civil freedoms. Like other posts have mentioned, it might look more like India than SoKor or Japan or even Taiwan.

Historically, the ROC claimed Tibet, Xinjiang, and Manchuria. The only question is whether or not they would be able to successfully maintain control over those regions.

[Europa Undivided]

The Chinese wouldn’t be stealing other people’s islands and clams.

[Tuthina]

The Chinese wouldn’t be stealing other people’s islands and clams.

PRC's current claims on South China Sea is based on that of ROC, though, and ROC still controls the largest piece of land there.

[Tokora]

As far as the proletariat is concerned the Nationalists already did.

[Luziyca]

Considering how authoritarian the KMT were on Taiwan, I reckon that the only thing that would change politically would be who is in charge, and a few policies here and there. Economically, it'd probably be like India: pretty poor outside of some major cities like Shanghai and Beijing. And globally, I doubt the ROC would ever reach the same clout as the PRC, where it is now close to becoming a superpower in and of itself.

[Pasong Tirad]

I can see China being a lot smaller because of it. Maybe Chiang wouldn't have gone for Tibet, and the Soviets might have held onto more parts of Xinjiang and maybe even Manchuria to act as a buffer. Korea might even be unified because of all this, either that or Manchuria would have taken the PRC's place during the Korean War.

A lot of China's territorial disputes with other countries might still be there, though. The South China Sea dispute, most of all.

But overall I think things might be a lot better for people. A lot more income inequality, but also a lot more political and civil freedoms. Like other posts have mentioned, it might look more like India than SoKor or Japan or even Taiwan.

Historically, the ROC claimed Tibet, Xinjiang, and Manchuria. The only question is whether or not they would be able to successfully maintain control over those regions.

As Risottia has already said, if the PRC were replaced with a virulently anti-communist Kuomintang, the Soviets would have no doubt pushed into the region. Xinjiang, parts of Inner Mongolia, and perhaps even Manchuria would have been set up as Soviet satellite and buffer states to keep America off its back.