Canadian Politics

[Shrillland]

Alberta leaders debate lively just hours after Smith found to have violated Conflict of Interest Act

I'm finally starting to see a clearer picture, and I think Notley and the NDP will be back in power.

Polling isn’t showing this is going to happen.

Polls have them at a dead heat, and this was before the Ethics Commissioner's report came out. I think the NDP, for now, has a slight edge.

[San Lumen]

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/202 ... ected.html

Alberta candidate’s comparison of trans kids to feces crossed a line for many — including Danielle Smith

The UCP leader says Jennifer Johnson won’t sit with caucus if elected in her riding. But advocates say it’s too little, too late.

[Greater Cesnica]

We are less than a week out from Alberta's provincial election.

I'm calling a UCP win. Here's my projection for May 29th:

[Bahrimontagn]

Alberta leaders debate lively just hours after Smith found to have violated Conflict of Interest Act

I'm finally starting to see a clearer picture, and I think Notley and the NDP will be back in power.

If anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory it's the NDP so I won't hold my breath. Especially considering things like, as was pointed out on Twitter, how teachers, nurses and doctors didn't get a raise once during Notley's government, but did during Smith's. Which is just tremendously bad optics for the NDP.

Just champagne socialist things

[Nilokeras]

If anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory it's the NDP so I won't hold my breath. Especially considering things like, as was pointed out on Twitter, how teachers, nurses and doctors didn't get a raise once during Notley's government, but did during Smith's. Which is just tremendously bad optics for the NDP.

Just champagne socialist things

I mean, not even champagne socialist - the party was trumpeting a commitment to keeping corporate taxes low on twitter, if that gives any indication of their tenor. The best way to understand the Alberta NDP and its tactics in this election is that they're essentially just small l-liberals who have a profound aesthetic revulsion towards the UCP and want to bring back Sensible Government by Serious People.

And sometimes that works - it got the BC NDP a razor thin majority in 2017 that they successfully maneuvered into a larger majority on the back of a desperately out of touch BC Liberal government. It worked for the federal Liberals in 2015 in the face of a Harper government that was tired and made major missteps in its attempt to shift the political consensus rightward.

But I don't think Notley or the Alberta NDP has that special sauce, that combo of a minimum amount of personal charisma and a few attention-grabbing line-in-the-sand signature policies, to pull it off. To that extent it's quite similar to the 2013 election in BC, where the BC Liberals were also in a rut and the BC NDP was polling in majority territory, but when the ballots came in the BC Liberals came away with a majority because the then-leader Adrian Dix also just didn't have that special sauce. I suspect Ces is right and the Alberta NDP are going to underperform significantly when the chips go down because of it.

[Greater Cesnica]

Canada's household debt is now highest in the G7.

[Shrillland]

Vancouver's Canada Day fireworks display is permanently canceled due to rising costs

Not just of materials but for safety such as police presence and fire prevention, more important than ever as fire season gets more intense and longer. Not only that but the continued discoveries at Residential Schools are still leaving sour tastes in a lot of mouths. I know this in and of itself, isn't especially political, but I've no doubt that BC United(for all outside Canada, the new name for the BC Liberals), the Tories and the PPC will all make enough hay out of this to feed a ranch.

[Greater Cesnica]

Not only that but the continued discoveries at Residential Schools are still leaving sour tastes in a lot of mouths.

But are they really? I don't see that in day-to-day dealings with people both in rural Ontario and the bigger cities. Perhaps it's different in B.C.

[Shrillland]

Not only that but the continued discoveries at Residential Schools are still leaving sour tastes in a lot of mouths.

But are they really? I don't see that in day-to-day dealings with people both in rural Ontario and the bigger cities. Perhaps it's different in B.C.

That's what I'm thinking myself.

[Bahrimontagn]

Vancouver's Canada Day fireworks display is permanently canceled due to rising costs

Not just of materials but for safety such as police presence and fire prevention, more important than ever as fire season gets more intense and longer. Not only that but the continued discoveries at Residential Schools are still leaving sour tastes in a lot of mouths. I know this in and of itself, isn't especially political, but I've no doubt that BC United(for all outside Canada, the new name for the BC Liberals), the Tories and the PPC will all make enough hay out of this to feed a ranch.

Lament for a Nation

[Greater Cesnica]

338Canada Alberta projection for May 27: 50 seats for the UCP, 37 seats for the NDP.

[Shrillland]

At this moment, I have to agree with that one.

[Vikanias]

As an Albertan-Newfie and who’s going to vote for the first time ever, I’m going to place it in the hands of the Conservatives, I just don’t like the NDP and how they handled the province last time they ran it and I at least put some trust into Danielle Smith to help fix the shit thats going on.

In around 12 hours, I will be heading to the polls, wish me luck.

[Dayganistan]

As an Albertan, I'm predicting a UCP win but NDP picking up a few new seats in Calgary and Edmonton. I'll be disappointed if the UCP wins, but I know to expect it. NDP basically has to sweep the three largest cities in the province (Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge) to win.

[Greater Cesnica]

As an Albertan, I'm predicting a UCP win but NDP picking up a few new seats in Calgary and Edmonton. I'll be disappointed if the UCP wins, but I know to expect it. NDP basically has to sweep the three largest cities in the province (Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge) to win.

Maybe Notley should have tried a different campaign strategy other than going very negative on Smith.

[Nilokeras]

As an Albertan, I'm predicting a UCP win but NDP picking up a few new seats in Calgary and Edmonton. I'll be disappointed if the UCP wins, but I know to expect it. NDP basically has to sweep the three largest cities in the province (Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge) to win.

Maybe Notley should have tried a different campaign strategy other than going very negative on Smith.

They seem to have forgotten the cardinal rule of negative campaigning, which is that it always has to be paired with measures to make you look good in comparison. That can be a personally charismatic leader that people like more than the person you're slagging off, a slate of policy proposals that get peoples' interests or a combination of the two, but you need something.

That was Harper's failure in 2015, IMO - he was up against a candidate who was at that point personally popular and charismatic and had a platform with a few signature issues (like electoral reform) that got people to sit up and pay attention, and when Trudeau attacked him for being retrogressive or tired or autocratic Harper's responses just made the situation even starker.

Smith was radioactively unpopular at the run-up to the electoral period and it should have been the easiest layup in the world for Notley to put together an eye-catching campaign and just relentlessly drive the media narrative until the end, but they seem to have been bafflingly out of touch, lazy, entitled or all three and just assumed they could cruise in by reminding people over and over how bad Smith was without giving them any reason to actually tick the box next to the NDP candidate.

[Nilokeras]

Not only that but the continued discoveries at Residential Schools are still leaving sour tastes in a lot of mouths.

But are they really? I don't see that in day-to-day dealings with people both in rural Ontario and the bigger cities. Perhaps it's different in B.C.

It's a much more sensitive issue here given the looming issue of the unceded territories in most of BC - governments at all levels are much more attentive to the need to have FNs on side when hosting events because if the FNs feel slighted they can actually make life difficult for governments.

That said I don't think the residential schools had much impact on Canada Day festivities being cancelled. The Canada Day celebrations are a gigantic affair that requires setting up security and crowd control for pretty much the entirety of the north-facing coast of the city of Vancouver, plus the municipality of North Vancouver across the way. It's also run by the Port of Vancouver rather than the cities, the Metro Vancouver regional government or the province so it's a pretty huge expense with limited ability to recoup costs - it's not surprising that they projected the costs out and decided that it's just not feasible for them anymore.

[Shrillland]

Coverage of Alberta starts at the half-hour, polls close at the next hour, and here's the link to the CBC coverage

[Shrillland]

Polls are now closed in Alberta.

[Luziyca]

Currently, the UCP are leading in two constituencies (per CTV's live coverage): Peace River and Drayton Valley-Devon. I am hoping the NDP will win this election (party loyalty and all that), but I feel very nervous about their odds of winning.

[Luziyca]

One hour later and we don't seem to be seeing any declarations that the UCP have formed government: which compared to recent elections in Ontario, PEI, and Queebc, seems pretty slow (although it still seems far faster than a federal election... so far, anyway). Certainly no candidates have officially been declared "elected" as of the time of this posting.

However, the UCP are leading in 50 ridings while the NDP's leading in 32 ridings, so assuming the current trajectory continues, the UCP have all but secured another majority government, even if the UCP don't gain any more seats.

[Shrillland]

One hour later and we don't seem to be seeing any declarations that the UCP have formed government: which compared to recent elections in Ontario, PEI, and Queebc, seems pretty slow (although it still seems far faster than a federal election... so far, anyway). Certainly no candidates have officially been declared "elected" as of the time of this posting.

However, the UCP are leading in 50 ridings while the NDP's leading in 32 ridings, so assuming the current trajectory continues, the UCP have all but secured another majority government, even if the UCP don't gain any more seats.

Trouble is many ridings have only one or two rural polls in still, Elections Alberta is getting flak for going slow. Then too, a lot of the suburban races are closer than expected.

[Luziyca]

One hour later and we don't seem to be seeing any declarations that the UCP have formed government: which compared to recent elections in Ontario, PEI, and Queebc, seems pretty slow (although it still seems far faster than a federal election... so far, anyway). Certainly no candidates have officially been declared "elected" as of the time of this posting.

However, the UCP are leading in 50 ridings while the NDP's leading in 32 ridings, so assuming the current trajectory continues, the UCP have all but secured another majority government, even if the UCP don't gain any more seats.

Trouble is many ridings have only one or two rural polls in still, Elections Alberta is getting flak for going slow. Then too, a lot of the suburban races are closer than expected.

Indeed: I was going to say that one riding (Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre) still didn't have results out, but they now have results out. Elections Alberta still seems to be taking their sweet time counting the polls, though.

[Luziyca]

CTV have declared a Danielle Smith/UCP victory, with the UCP leading/being elected in 52 seats and the NDP taking the remaining 35 seats.

[Shrillland]

CBC just did the same....NDP put up a hell of a fight though, particularly in Calgary, and they made some gains.