NationStates

Dresderstan wrote:

Shrillland wrote:
If he isn't careful, he may get his election handed to him before he's ready: https://nationalpost.com/news/singh-says-ndp-wont-support-liberal-bill-that-would-jail-fine-cerb-fraudsters

CERB's the emergency response money that's been going out to people in the pandemic. Since this is a government bill, Trudeau may be compelled to call a no confidence vote if it goes down.

I mean I don't think even the Conservatives are ready for an election rn, especially with a leadership contest to replace Scheer.

Neither are the NDP.

Jedi Council wrote:

Dresderstan wrote:I mean I don't think even the Conservatives are ready for an election rn, especially with a leadership contest to replace Scheer.

Neither are the NDP.

I'm pretty sure that they're not replacing Singh anytime soon.

Luziyca wrote:

Jedi Council wrote:
Neither are the NDP.

I'm pretty sure that they're not replacing Singh anytime soon.

Youre right, but they are in deep, deep trouble financially, a situation made even worse by Covid-19.

Luziyca wrote:

Jedi Council wrote:
Neither are the NDP.

I'm pretty sure that they're not replacing Singh anytime soon.

I mean, do they have a choice? They really don't have much room to go with Singh, during his leadership he had his caucus cut in half and his own MPs don't want him. I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP went bankrupt soon, they are in deep, deep financial troubles and if an election came they would be decimated by the Liberals.

Dresderstan wrote:

Luziyca wrote:I'm pretty sure that they're not replacing Singh anytime soon.

I mean, do they have a choice? They really don't have much room to go with Singh, during his leadership he had his caucus cut in half and his own MPs don't want him. I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP went bankrupt soon, they are in deep, deep financial troubles and if an election came they would be decimated by the Liberals.

He'll probably stay on one more election then go, unless he can get them back into 40 seat territory.

Jedi Council wrote:

Dresderstan wrote:I mean, do they have a choice? They really don't have much room to go with Singh, during his leadership he had his caucus cut in half and his own MPs don't want him. I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP went bankrupt soon, they are in deep, deep financial troubles and if an election came they would be decimated by the Liberals.

He'll probably stay on one more election then go, unless he can get them back into 40 seat territory.

It's unlikely he'll see much success beyond his showing in the 2019 election.

He's a nice guy, but he has the arduous task of leading a party that relies on the Quebec vote for electoral success federally. Which, frankly, isn't going to happen while he's leader.

The sad truth of the matter is that Quebec is the most racist and xenophobic province in Canada. It won't be voting for a brown man in a turban anytime soon, no matter what his policies might be. With the exception of the Liberal stronghold in the city of Montreal, Quebec will be voting either Bloc or Conservative while Singh is leader of the NDP.

Imperium Romanum Sanctis wrote:

Jedi Council wrote:He'll probably stay on one more election then go, unless he can get them back into 40 seat territory.

It's unlikely he'll see much success beyond his showing in the 2019 election.

He's a nice guy, but he has the arduous task of leading a party that relies on the Quebec vote for electoral success federally. Which, frankly, isn't going to happen while he's leader.

The sad truth of the matter is that Quebec is the most racist and xenophobic province in Canada. It won't be voting for a brown man in a turban anytime soon, no matter what his policies might be. With the exception of the Liberal stronghold in the city of Montreal, Quebec will be voting either Bloc or Conservative while Singh is leader of the NDP.

Quebec is more likely to vote for the Liberals or the Bloc, the province hasn't elected conservatives federally since Brian Mulroney was PM in the 80s and I doubt that with the Bloc and Trudeau they will ever win back that province.

Imperium Romanum Sanctis wrote:

Jedi Council wrote:He'll probably stay on one more election then go, unless he can get them back into 40 seat territory.

It's unlikely he'll see much success beyond his showing in the 2019 election.

He's a nice guy, but he has the arduous task of leading a party that relies on the Quebec vote for electoral success federally. Which, frankly, isn't going to happen while he's leader.

The sad truth of the matter is that Quebec is the most racist and xenophobic province in Canada. It won't be voting for a brown man in a turban anytime soon, no matter what his policies might be. With the exception of the Liberal stronghold in the city of Montreal, Quebec will be voting either Bloc or Conservative while Singh is leader of the NDP.

In Quebec I agree, but getting into the high 30s or 40s seat count wise would not be impossible without Quebec, especially if Singh is able to make a break through in the large populations of new canadians concentrated in seat rich areas like the Lower Mainland of BC and in the 905.

Part of his pitch in 2017 while running for the leadership was that he could win these areas, and while he has yet to do so, I think he could if the Liberals suffer heavily in public opinion.

But again, that's a big if. Trudeau has proven to be pretty resilient, even after scoring some pretty big own goals in the latter half of his first term, and with a relatively decent response to Covid-19, he seems to be in a good position for the next general.

Jedi Council wrote:

Imperium Romanum Sanctis wrote:
It's unlikely he'll see much success beyond his showing in the 2019 election.

He's a nice guy, but he has the arduous task of leading a party that relies on the Quebec vote for electoral success federally. Which, frankly, isn't going to happen while he's leader.

The sad truth of the matter is that Quebec is the most racist and xenophobic province in Canada. It won't be voting for a brown man in a turban anytime soon, no matter what his policies might be. With the exception of the Liberal stronghold in the city of Montreal, Quebec will be voting either Bloc or Conservative while Singh is leader of the NDP.

In Quebec I agree, but getting into the high 30s or 40s seat count wise would not be impossible without Quebec, especially if Singh is able to make a break through in the large populations of new canadians concentrated in seat rich areas like the Lower Mainland of BC and in the 905.

Part of his pitch in 2017 while running for the leadership was that he could win these areas, and while he has yet to do so, I think he could if the Liberals suffer heavily in public opinion.

But again, that's a big if. Trudeau has proven to be pretty resilient, even after scoring some pretty big own goals in the latter half of his first term, and with a relatively decent response to Covid-19, he seems to be in a good position for the next general.

Certainly: I fear that the way things are going, next election, the NDP will end up like the Socreds: no longer a viable force in federal politics. I'm sure they'll remain in provincial politics for some time (the BC Socreds did survive until 1996, after all), but given Trudeau has done a better job in managing this compared to Trump, and given I doubt the NDP will make inroads into Quebec so long as the Liberals remain strong, this may be the end of the federal NDP, and we'll become a true two-party system, unless the Greens becomes the half-party that replaces the NDP.

And as an NDPer, I sure hope that my fears don't come true: I doubt a Liberal or a Green would win a seat in Saskatchewan nowadays.

Luziyca wrote:

Jedi Council wrote:In Quebec I agree, but getting into the high 30s or 40s seat count wise would not be impossible without Quebec, especially if Singh is able to make a break through in the large populations of new canadians concentrated in seat rich areas like the Lower Mainland of BC and in the 905.

Part of his pitch in 2017 while running for the leadership was that he could win these areas, and while he has yet to do so, I think he could if the Liberals suffer heavily in public opinion.

But again, that's a big if. Trudeau has proven to be pretty resilient, even after scoring some pretty big own goals in the latter half of his first term, and with a relatively decent response to Covid-19, he seems to be in a good position for the next general.

Certainly: I fear that the way things are going, next election, the NDP will end up like the Socreds: no longer a viable force in federal politics. I'm sure they'll remain in provincial politics for some time (the BC Socreds did survive until 1996, after all), but given Trudeau has done a better job in managing this compared to Trump, and given I doubt the NDP will make inroads into Quebec so long as the Liberals remain strong, this may be the end of the federal NDP, and we'll become a true two-party system, unless the Greens becomes the half-party that replaces the NDP.

And as an NDPer, I sure hope that my fears don't come true: I doubt a Liberal or a Green would win a seat in Saskatchewan nowadays.

If Canada had proportional representation the NDP will be much more relevant.

Outer Sparta wrote:

Luziyca wrote:Certainly: I fear that the way things are going, next election, the NDP will end up like the Socreds: no longer a viable force in federal politics. I'm sure they'll remain in provincial politics for some time (the BC Socreds did survive until 1996, after all), but given Trudeau has done a better job in managing this compared to Trump, and given I doubt the NDP will make inroads into Quebec so long as the Liberals remain strong, this may be the end of the federal NDP, and we'll become a true two-party system, unless the Greens becomes the half-party that replaces the NDP.

And as an NDPer, I sure hope that my fears don't come true: I doubt a Liberal or a Green would win a seat in Saskatchewan nowadays.

If Canada had proportional representation the NDP will be much more relevant.

AKA if Trudeau had kept his promise to bring in PR....

Shrillland wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:If Canada had proportional representation the NDP will be much more relevant.

AKA if Trudeau had kept his promise to bring in PR....

Yeah: that was a huge deal-breaker, and I don't ever intend to vote Liberal unless it is the only other option available.

Luziyca wrote:

Jedi Council wrote:In Quebec I agree, but getting into the high 30s or 40s seat count wise would not be impossible without Quebec, especially if Singh is able to make a break through in the large populations of new canadians concentrated in seat rich areas like the Lower Mainland of BC and in the 905.

Part of his pitch in 2017 while running for the leadership was that he could win these areas, and while he has yet to do so, I think he could if the Liberals suffer heavily in public opinion.

But again, that's a big if. Trudeau has proven to be pretty resilient, even after scoring some pretty big own goals in the latter half of his first term, and with a relatively decent response to Covid-19, he seems to be in a good position for the next general.

Certainly: I fear that the way things are going, next election, the NDP will end up like the Socreds: no longer a viable force in federal politics. I'm sure they'll remain in provincial politics for some time (the BC Socreds did survive until 1996, after all), but given Trudeau has done a better job in managing this compared to Trump, and given I doubt the NDP will make inroads into Quebec so long as the Liberals remain strong, this may be the end of the federal NDP, and we'll become a true two-party system, unless the Greens becomes the half-party that replaces the NDP.

And as an NDPer, I sure hope that my fears don't come true: I doubt a Liberal or a Green would win a seat in Saskatchewan nowadays.

I highly doubt that the NDP will become extinct like he Socreds. To be clear though, the only time they have been viable, in the sense of actually winning, at the Federal level was 2015.

And let's not forget that the NDP has survived worse calamities than 2019; in 1993 they were decimated, only taking 9 seats and ~8% of the popular vote.

What's far more likely to happen is that they will enter the cycle that 2011 disrupted; they will get stronger as the Liberals govern longer, absorbing disaffected Liberal and progressive voters. Eventually, this bleed of support will cause the Conservatives to topple the Liberals and take office. Then the Liberals will once again be seen as the primary party of opposition to the Tories, and the NDP will lose support to them.

It's basically the cycle that the NDP completes once every decade or so.

Outer Sparta wrote:

Luziyca wrote:Certainly: I fear that the way things are going, next election, the NDP will end up like the Socreds: no longer a viable force in federal politics. I'm sure they'll remain in provincial politics for some time (the BC Socreds did survive until 1996, after all), but given Trudeau has done a better job in managing this compared to Trump, and given I doubt the NDP will make inroads into Quebec so long as the Liberals remain strong, this may be the end of the federal NDP, and we'll become a true two-party system, unless the Greens becomes the half-party that replaces the NDP.

And as an NDPer, I sure hope that my fears don't come true: I doubt a Liberal or a Green would win a seat in Saskatchewan nowadays.

If Canada had proportional representation the NDP will be much more relevant.

It's quite paradoxical; you will hear quite a lot about PR from angry voters, but when PR has been on the ballot, which is has a few times in provincial referendums, it is generally dismissed.

Jedi Council wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:If Canada had proportional representation the NDP will be much more relevant.

It's quite paradoxical; you will hear quite a lot about PR from angry voters, but when PR has been on the ballot, which is has a few times in provincial referendums, it is generally dismissed.

It was actually pretty close in the PEI Election last year. 51% voted against, and it wasn't binding since it didn't get the 60% needed in voters or provincial ridings. As for doing it on a national scale, it's a Section 44 Amendment, so it only requires Parliament's approval.

Shrillland wrote:

Jedi Council wrote:It's quite paradoxical; you will hear quite a lot about PR from angry voters, but when PR has been on the ballot, which is has a few times in provincial referendums, it is generally dismissed.

It was actually pretty close in the PEI Election last year, it won the popular vote but didn't get the majority of ridings.

The most recent BC referendum was a catastrophe; the NDP government brought it in, at the behest of the Greens, who hold the balance of power in the legislature.

But to be entirely honest, the NDP did their level best to fuck with the process, offered only one realistic option when they claimed three different PR systems were on the table, and muddled the announcement/roll out to such an extent that it was widely ridiculed as political malpractice.

The proposal was defeated by a wide margin, and many progressives and Green voters think the NDP actually sabotaged the entire affair because they would rather have fight the BC Liberals under FPTP.

Jedi Council wrote:

Shrillland wrote:
It was actually pretty close in the PEI Election last year, it won the popular vote but didn't get the majority of ridings.

The most recent BC referendum was a catastrophe; the NDP government brought it in, at the behest of the Greens, who hold the balance of power in the legislature.

But to be entirely honest, the NDP did their level best to fuck with the process, offered only one realistic option when they claimed three different PR systems were on the table, and muddled the announcement/roll out to such an extent that it was widely ridiculed as political malpractice.

The proposal was defeated by a wide margin, and many progressives and Green voters think the NDP actually sabotaged the entire affair because they would rather have fight the BC Liberals under FPTP.

It didn't help that when Trudeau did start making moves towards PR, the press and the pundits were telling people it would lead to permanent minority governments, taking advantage of your nation's strange allergic reaction to the word "coalition".

Shrillland wrote:

Jedi Council wrote:The most recent BC referendum was a catastrophe; the NDP government brought it in, at the behest of the Greens, who hold the balance of power in the legislature.

But to be entirely honest, the NDP did their level best to fuck with the process, offered only one realistic option when they claimed three different PR systems were on the table, and muddled the announcement/roll out to such an extent that it was widely ridiculed as political malpractice.

The proposal was defeated by a wide margin, and many progressives and Green voters think the NDP actually sabotaged the entire affair because they would rather have fight the BC Liberals under FPTP.

It didn't help that when Trudeau did start making moves towards PR, the press and the pundits were telling people it would lead to permanent minority governments, taking advantage of your nation's strange allergic reaction to the word "coalition".

It is an oddity in Canada that coalitions are so maligned. While a true coalition has never happened on the federal level, it really was only after the 2008 Constitutional crisis that coalitions became anathema to most of the population.

We can thank Harper and his fear mongering for that, though plenty of blame should be heaped on Dion and Layton for handling the situation incredibly poorly.

Jedi Council wrote:

Luziyca wrote:Certainly: I fear that the way things are going, next election, the NDP will end up like the Socreds: no longer a viable force in federal politics. I'm sure they'll remain in provincial politics for some time (the BC Socreds did survive until 1996, after all), but given Trudeau has done a better job in managing this compared to Trump, and given I doubt the NDP will make inroads into Quebec so long as the Liberals remain strong, this may be the end of the federal NDP, and we'll become a true two-party system, unless the Greens becomes the half-party that replaces the NDP.

And as an NDPer, I sure hope that my fears don't come true: I doubt a Liberal or a Green would win a seat in Saskatchewan nowadays.

I highly doubt that the NDP will become extinct like he Socreds. To be clear though, the only time they have been viable, in the sense of actually winning, at the Federal level was 2015.

And let's not forget that the NDP has survived worse calamities than 2019; in 1993 they were decimated, only taking 9 seats and ~8% of the popular vote.

What's far more likely to happen is that they will enter the cycle that 2011 disrupted; they will get stronger as the Liberals govern longer, absorbing disaffected Liberal and progressive voters. Eventually, this bleed of support will cause the Conservatives to topple the Liberals and take office. Then the Liberals will once again be seen as the primary party of opposition to the Tories, and the NDP will lose support to them.

It's basically the cycle that the NDP completes once every decade or so.

That's good.

Would be nice for the NDP to form even a minority government though. One day, one day...

Jedi Council wrote:O'Toole leadership campaign under fire for using an American call centre to contact Canadian voters.

Yes, but MacKay's used US-based services(outside of the obvious ones like FB, Twitter, etc), and so did Singh according to the article. I don't think it'll actually account for all that much.

Shrillland wrote:

Jedi Council wrote:O'Toole leadership campaign under fire for using an American call centre to contact Canadian voters.

Yes, but MacKay's used US-based services(outside of the obvious ones like FB, Twitter, etc), and so did Singh according to the article. I don't think it'll actually account for all that much.

I think the issue with O'Toole here is the fact it's a phone centre, as in it is real people doing a function that a vast majority of the population could visualize.

Not the biggest deal, but a pretty stupid move.

O'Toole in more hot water as leaked video shows him hesitant to ban Gay Conversion therapy, announces plans to vote against expansion of medically assisted dying.

Clearly a play for Sloan/Lewis voters; he actively asks to be their second choice in this video.

Primary issue will likely be his comments around Gay Conversion therapy, especially claiming that such a proposal would infringe on a Priests relationship with their flock.

Might help him among the social conservatives, but it would be easy fodder in the general for the Liberals.

Jedi Council wrote:O'Toole in more hot water as leaked video shows him hesitant to ban Gay Conversion therapy, announces plans to vote against expansion of medically assisted dying.

Clearly a play for Sloan/Lewis voters; he actively asks to be their second choice in this video.

Primary issue will likely be his comments around Gay Conversion therapy, especially claiming that such a proposal would infringe on a Priests relationship with their flock.

Might help him among the social conservatives, but it would be easy fodder in the general for the Liberals.

What's with top Conservative politicians and LGBT issues? Scheer once called the LGBT community "dogs."

Outer Sparta wrote:

Jedi Council wrote:O'Toole in more hot water as leaked video shows him hesitant to ban Gay Conversion therapy, announces plans to vote against expansion of medically assisted dying.

Clearly a play for Sloan/Lewis voters; he actively asks to be their second choice in this video.

Primary issue will likely be his comments around Gay Conversion therapy, especially claiming that such a proposal would infringe on a Priests relationship with their flock.

Might help him among the social conservatives, but it would be easy fodder in the general for the Liberals.

What's with top Conservative politicians and LGBT issues? Scheer once called the LGBT community "dogs."

It's as if Canadian homophobes tend to gravitate towards the Tories.