Canadian Politics

[Shrillland]

Bill 96 passes National Assembly 78-29

[Shrillland]

And now...here's my take on next week....a day late.

Next Thursday, Ontario goes to the polls. It's practically no surprise that Doug Ford's handling of COVID has made him a fairly popular premier, and the polls right now indicate that he's more or less in majority territory once more. Even so, it'll be a reduced majority for the PCs, I think somewhere in the 70-73 range. The NDP is set to fall into third place behind a slowly revitalising provincial Liberal Party, and although I don't see Derek Sloan winning his race, I do think Karahalios has an outside chance to flip Kitchener-Conestoga over to the Liberals from small vote splits. Even the Greens are polling well enough(at about a 6% average) that they might make some races competitive in the GTA, though I've yet to see any seat flips on their part.

[Anatoliyanskiy]

And now...here's my take on next week....a day late.

Next Thursday, Ontario goes to the polls. It's practically no surprise that Dug Ford's handling of COVID has made him a fairly popular premier, and the polls right now indicate that he's more or less in majority territory once more. Even so, it'll be a reduced majority for the PCs, I think somewhere in the 70-73 range. The NDP is set to fall into third place behind a slowly revitalising provincial Liberal Party, and although I don't see Derek Sloan winning his race, I do think Karahalios has an outside chance to flip Kitchener-Conestoga over to the Liberals from small vote splits. Even the Greens are polling well enough(at about a 6% average) that they might make some races competitive in the GTA, though I've yet to see any seat flips on their part.

Pretty depressing that people are still going to re-elect someone who's handling of COVID killed thousands of innocent people (remember the for-profit senior care homes scandal?) and who's MPPs are directly contributing to the housing crisis by owning multiple properties, thus increasing their value. But, I guess populism and fake promises seem to be the new way forward in politics it seems. He'll probably win a slightly reduced majority, though I still cant tell if it'll be the NDP or Liberals in opposition. (Steven Del Duca still might not even win his own seat btw).

The Greens do actually have a considerable chance of winning Parry Sound-Muskoka, which would be quite the upset. It's mainly because the Liberal candidate got disqualified, but it would still be nice to see another Green MPP besides Mike Schreiner.

[Shrillland]

After last week's French Debate, polls show support shifting from Pollievre

If the trends continue, Charest may, just may, make one of the biggest comebacks in Canadian political history.

[Shrillland]

In other news: Audrey Festeryga, the Liberal candidate for the provincial riding of Chatham-Kent-Leamington, ON, has withdrawn from the ballot under NDP pressure over the alleged fraudulent signatures

All early and by-mail ballots for her will be tossed.

[Luziyca]

Meanwhile out in Saskatchewan, Premier Scott Moe did a cabinet shuffle.

Nothing too exciting out here apart from the upcoming by-election for Ryan Meili's seat... and the provincial NDP leadership race which I received information on how to vote (either online or by mail), an invite to the leadership convention in Regina (can't afford it, unfortunately, but at least it's accessible online), and a couple campaign materials from Kaitlyn Harvey and Carla Beck (of which I voted for Harvey, based on my impressions of the two of them at the debate held by the Saskatoon Metro NDP).

After last week's French Debate, polls show support shifting from Pollievre

If the trends continue, Charest may, just may, make one of the biggest comebacks in Canadian political history.

It would be for sure: when I first heard Charest was running, I was kinda surprised that he was even running to lead the Conservatives given that he previously led the PCs in the 1990s, and usually, 1990s-era politicians are at or well past retirement age, when in fact, he is in his early 60s.

Pretty depressing that people are still going to re-elect someone who's handling of COVID killed thousands of innocent people (remember the for-profit senior care homes scandal?) and who's MPPs are directly contributing to the housing crisis by owning multiple properties, thus increasing their value. But, I guess populism and fake promises seem to be the new way forward in politics it seems. He'll probably win a slightly reduced majority, though I still cant tell if it'll be the NDP or Liberals in opposition. (Steven Del Duca still might not even win his own seat btw).

The Greens do actually have a considerable chance of winning Parry Sound-Muskoka, which would be quite the upset. It's mainly because the Liberal candidate got disqualified, but it would still be nice to see another Green MPP besides Mike Schreiner.

From the Twitter accounts that I follow, it seems that most people in Ontario want Doug Ford gone, and per the Star's article before I got hit with the paywall:

If the vote were held today, the PCs would end up with 36.9 per cent of the popular vote, ahead of the Liberals’ 27.2 per cent and the NDP’s 22.7, with 6.9 going to the Greens. That would translate into 75 seats for the PCs, 28 for the NDP, 20 for the Liberals and one seat for Mike Schreiner’s Green Party.

Using basic math, we can see that 63.1% of Ontarians are voting against Doug Ford, and that if the NDP and Liberals weren't cannibalizing each other, but agreed to form a united front (for the election and a coalition), 49.9% of the votes would go to them, easily giving them a majority.

[Saiwania]

So there is a gigantic push for more Gun Control in Canada recently, as a result of the Uvalde shooting in the US. I feel bad for Canada's gun owners, the word is that handguns are being outlawed almost completely, or being only limited to some people, while the magazine capacity is being limited to 5 rounds or less.

Do Canadians in rural areas approve or disapprove more about this direction? Will it even matter if Canadians who want to ignore/bypass Ottawa's legislation/rules can simply smuggle in the weaponry they want from the US like the Nova Scotia shooter did? Canada is said to share a border with New Hampshire which receives an F rating from a Gun Control advocacy group.

[Shrillland]

It's Election Day in Ontario today, go vote if you haven't already!

[San Lumen]

So there is a gigantic push for more Gun Control in Canada recently, as a result of the Uvalde shooting in the US. I feel bad for Canada's gun owners, the word is that handguns are being outlawed almost completely, or being only limited to some people, while the magazine capacity is being limited to 5 rounds or less.

Do Canadians in rural areas approve or disapprove more about this direction? Will it even matter if Canadians who want to ignore/bypass Ottawa's legislation/rules can simply smuggle in the weaponry they want from the US like the Nova Scotia shooter did? Canada is said to share a border with New Hampshire which receives an F rating from a Gun Control advocacy group.

How do you always have the worst takes possible?

[Saiwania]

How do you always have the worst takes possible?

I don't see it as a bad take because it is a genuine concern a lot of Canadian legislators and citizens have, how exactly will RCMP physically close off entire US border? To what extent will the US' gun problems become Canada's? The new gun laws being passed is what's happening now and will probably make gun owners there the losers by default. What was previously allowed to them, they'll have to jump through more hoops soon or in the future.

If its the world's longest undefended border, lots of illegal smuggling is bound to happen. And we do know for a fact that the Nova Scotia shooter smuggled in some guns from the US which are illegal to buy/possess in Canada. It is also a fact that New Hampshire and other bordering US states have a ton of guns that're illegal in Canada which conceivably could be brought in by Canadians which are ignoring their own laws on this.

Visitors from Texas are among the most often dinged if RCMP finds them with a gun and it isn't declared to Canada's customs when crossing a border checkpoint. Canada's government has apparently implored American tourists/visitors to Canada to "please leave their guns at home."

As it stands, some 1500+ different military style, semi-automatic rifles are prohibited entirely from import into Canada, if found such firearms are confiscated and destroyed by RCMP. And handguns in general are harder to come by in Canada. With magazines over 5 rounds being heavily restricted. Canada has this silly "non-restricted, restricted, and prohibited weapons system, but those are nonetheless their rules that they've chosen for themselves.

https://www.ezbordercrossing.com/the-in ... to-canada/
This should explain the entire process for travelors to Canada with guns.

I've seen an estimate which has Canada at around 13 million firearms in civilian possession, about 35 guns per 100 people. With most guns in Canada being found in rural areas for hunting/recreation, but the other major concentration for gun ownership there being Ontario and Quebec, followed by Alberta, and British Columbia.

[Shrillland]

Polls are now closed in Ontario.

BTW: Here's the CBC stream

[Shrillland]

And it's over already. PC Majority Government after just 20 minutes with the Liberals actually not making any progress whatsoever. Far from losing a seat or two, they're actually gaining seats despite the slightly reduced share of vote even with 30 seats still not reporting.

[San Lumen]

And it's over already. PC Majority Government after just 20 minutes with the Liberals actually not making any progress whatsoever. Far from losing a seat or two, they're actually gaining seats despite the slightly reduced share of vote even with 30 seats still not reporting.

Well that was a very underwhelming season finale.

[Shrillland]

And it's over already. PC Majority Government after just 20 minutes with the Liberals actually not making any progress whatsoever. Far from losing a seat or two, they're actually gaining seats despite the slightly reduced share of vote even with 30 seats still not reporting.

Well that was a very underwhelming season finale.

Ontario may be a big province, but it is still a province, and they tend to go fast. It was a forgone conclusion, really, just as our next little soiree in Quebec will be come October.

[Luziyca]

Well that was a very underwhelming season finale.

Ontario may be a big province, but it is still a province, and they tend to go fast. It was a forgone conclusion, really, just as our next little soiree in Quebec will be come October.

Probably.

As someone from Saskatchewan whose last provincial election went from "polls close" to "Saskatchewan Party majority" in just under an hour, I was expecting the Ontario election to take much longer than ours (though not an all-night affair like the federal elections) before they declare a government.

[Shrillland]

Ontario may be a big province, but it is still a province, and they tend to go fast. It was a forgone conclusion, really, just as our next little soiree in Quebec will be come October.

Probably.

As someone from Saskatchewan whose last provincial election went from "polls close" to "Saskatchewan Party majority" in just under an hour, I was expecting the Ontario election to take much longer than ours (though not an all-night affair like the federal elections) before they declare a government.

So was I, I didn't realise(though no one did until now) how well the PC's attempts at making inroads into the unions by reminding them who Del Duca was would cause so much damage and sapping NDP support in the process. PCs won in Essex, and the NDP held that for 60 years before tonight. I thought it would be a reduced majority, but they're now north of 80 seats. Both Del Duca and Horwath are going to have to bow out tonight.

[Port Caverton]

L

[Shrillland]

Oh, and Del Duca didn't even win his seat tonight anyway.

[San Lumen]

Oh, and Del Duca didn't even win his seat tonight anyway.

The leader didn't win his own seat. That's sad. Like the BBC the CBC's coverage is no longer available to people outside Canada.

[Anatoliyanskiy]

Probably.

As someone from Saskatchewan whose last provincial election went from "polls close" to "Saskatchewan Party majority" in just under an hour, I was expecting the Ontario election to take much longer than ours (though not an all-night affair like the federal elections) before they declare a government.

So was I, I didn't realise(though no one did until now) how well the PC's attempts at making inroads into the unions by reminding them who Del Duca was would cause so much damage and sapping NDP support in the process. PCs won in Essex, and the NDP held that for 60 years before tonight. I thought it would be a reduced majority, but they're now north of 80 seats. Both Del Duca and Horwath are going to have to bow out tonight.

I find it fascinating that all it took to get the endorsements of like 10 trade unions was "hey, remember Del Duca? He wasn't very nice with workers." And they just straight up endorsed him. Certainly one way to kill a party that's rooted in organized labor, even though obviously Ford's government was just as bad with workers as Wynne's. Another interesting thing is that the NDP got endorsed by public sector unions, while the PCs primarily got endorsed by private sector unions. Goes to show how divided organized labor has become. (Also, the Greens even managed to get endorsed by two labor unions, which is quite amazing for a party rooted in the environmental movement and not labor like the NDP.)

[Nilokeras]

So was I, I didn't realise(though no one did until now) how well the PC's attempts at making inroads into the unions by reminding them who Del Duca was would cause so much damage and sapping NDP support in the process. PCs won in Essex, and the NDP held that for 60 years before tonight. I thought it would be a reduced majority, but they're now north of 80 seats. Both Del Duca and Horwath are going to have to bow out tonight.

I find it fascinating that all it took to get the endorsements of like 10 trade unions was "hey, remember Del Duca? He wasn't very nice with workers." And they just straight up endorsed him. Certainly one way to kill a party that's rooted in organized labor, even though obviously Ford's government was just as bad with workers as Wynne's. Another interesting thing is that the NDP got endorsed by public sector unions, while the PCs primarily got endorsed by private sector unions. Goes to show how divided organized labor has become. (Also, the Greens even managed to get endorsed by two labor unions, which is quite amazing for a party rooted in the environmental movement and not labor like the NDP.)

The simpler explanation I think is just that both the NDP and the Liberals had the stink of loser on them, given how the polling was going for a while before the election itself, and the private sector unions figured they had nothing to lose by endorsing the PCs. Especially considering a large part of the PCs' platform dealt with encouraging construction of homes and infrastructure, which they all stand to benefit by Contrast that with the public sector unions, who have nothing to gain by endorsing the PCs since they're already the enemy.

This whole election I think is a reflection of the abject and complete failure of the Liberals and NDP to articulate any coherent opposition to the PCs. Together, their support by far outweighs the PCs - and for a while there in January the NDP were outpolling the PCs - but their brands of bloodless centrist ideology and their sclerotic leadership class absolutely failed to justify their own existences to the voters, and they responded in kind.

[Shrillland]

Conservatives claim nearly 500,000 new members in advance of September leadership vote

[Luziyca]

We will no longer be the largest country who borders only one other country for much longer as our government and the Danish government reach an agreement over Hans Island.

I hope that there will be an official border crossing up there, if nothing else than to be a tourist attraction.

[Drago Soviet Russia]

Frankly, I just want Trudeau and the Liberals beaten, humiliated, and gone. Whatever that takes. They've long worn out their welcome, at least in terms of my feelings about them. Same with the rest of the center-left/centrist parties of the world. It's time for the return of the real left and the real right. A real contrast between capitalist and socialist parties, you know.

[Luziyca]

That incel cunt who murdered 11 people and ran over 15 more has been sentenced to life in jail with no parole for 25 years.