Iran to breach uranium enrichment limit.

[Kanadorika]

A deal never should have been made in the first place. Iran will find itself developing nuclear weapons regardless, and it's foolish to assume they wouldn't.

What part of "routine and non-routine IAEA checks and controls" is so difficult to understand, I wonder?

The Third Reich was able to build an entire military under the noses of the western powers. Excuse me if I doubt the IAEA.

[Impaled Nazarene]

It's almost as if they realized America is itching to go to war and said "well fuck it, if we rush nukes we'll get that protection"

[Vistulange]

What part of "routine and non-routine IAEA checks and controls" is so difficult to understand, I wonder?

The Third Reich was able to build an entire military under the noses of the western powers. Excuse me if I doubt the IAEA.

False equivalence.

The factors behind Nazi Germany's rearmament and the JCPOA are so wildly different that they don't even make sense to compare. On the one hand you have a barely-functioning international organisation called the League of Nations which is largely paralysed due to its member states wishing very very very very hard to not enter another war because, you know, the last one cost about 15-19 million dead and about 20 million wounded. There were barely any oversights and checks on Weimar Germany, so much so that Hjalmar Schacht was actually able to use MEFO bills to basically fund the rearmament through a scheme behind people's backs.

With the JCPOA, we literally have IAEA checks, routine and non-routine, on Iranian nuclear facilities. These tests are being conducted, and Iran is complying with the measures in the JCPOA. Well, they were, until Trump scrapped the deal on behalf of the United States. So, pray tell, what's your basis for not trusting the IAEA aside from "The Weimar Republic managed to rearm itself!" from eight decades ago? As in, any suspicions that Iran evaded IAEA inspections? Any leaks that there are hidden Iranian facilities? Anything of substance aside from wildly false equivalences?

[Spirit of Hope]

What part of "routine and non-routine IAEA checks and controls" is so difficult to understand, I wonder?

The Third Reich was able to build an entire military under the noses of the western powers. Excuse me if I doubt the IAEA.

Not at all comparable, but ok. The IAEA has permission to go to declared nuclear sights whenever they want to, to have constant surveillance on those sights, to request visits to any location in Iran and get to go there within basically 30 days, and to use a great variety of other intelligence, forensic and accountability tools.

The IAEA is and was so wired into the Iran nuclear program they noticed the effects of Stuxnet almost immediately. They know how many centrifuges Iran has, how much Uranium they produce, and where all of the uranium goes. The IAEA is filled with dedicated people who know what they are doing, and Iran doesn't have any other nation they can hide a nuclear program in. This also ignores the huge complexity of a nuclear project, and how it is impossible to hide a nuclear test which is a required part of any nuclear weapons program.

Meanwhile for Nazi Germany had no real oversight committee dedicated to ensuring they didn't violate the Versailles Treaty, and they used another nation (the USSR) to help produce equipment and train personnel. Not to mention the western powers knew about the build up of the German army before 1935 when Germany openly declared it was going to ignore the treaty, and they did nothing about it.

[Vistulange]

The Third Reich was able to build an entire military under the noses of the western powers. Excuse me if I doubt the IAEA.

Not at all comparable, but ok. The IAEA has permission to go to declared nuclear sights whenever they want to, to have constant surveillance on those sights, to request visits to any location in Iran and get to go there within basically 30 days, and to use a great variety of other intelligence, forensic and accountability tools.

The IAEA is and was so wired into the Iran nuclear program they noticed the effects of Stuxnet almost immediately. They know how many centrifuges Iran has, how much Uranium they produce, and where all of the uranium goes. The IAEA is filled with dedicated people who know what they are doing, and Iran doesn't have any other nation they can hide a nuclear program in. This also ignores the huge complexity of a nuclear project, and how it is impossible to hide a nuclear test which is a required part of any nuclear weapons program.

Meanwhile for Nazi Germany had no real oversight committee dedicated to ensuring they didn't violate the Versailles Treaty, and they used another nation (the USSR) to help produce equipment and train personnel. Not to mention the western powers knew about the build up of the German army before 1935 when Germany openly declared it was going to ignore the treaty, and they did nothing about it.

Hell, all the way back in 1982, we could figure out what was what.

The Vela Incident was most likely a joint nuclear weapons test with South Africa and Israel, despite being meant to be very covert, it got spotted immediately by...satellites, of course. You can't conduct any nuclear test these days without it getting caught: Do it underground, you're going to trigger every goddamn seismograph in the region. Anywhere not underground is going to get spotted by one satellite or another.

[Fartsniffage]

Not at all comparable, but ok. The IAEA has permission to go to declared nuclear sights whenever they want to, to have constant surveillance on those sights, to request visits to any location in Iran and get to go there within basically 30 days, and to use a great variety of other intelligence, forensic and accountability tools.

The IAEA is and was so wired into the Iran nuclear program they noticed the effects of Stuxnet almost immediately. They know how many centrifuges Iran has, how much Uranium they produce, and where all of the uranium goes. The IAEA is filled with dedicated people who know what they are doing, and Iran doesn't have any other nation they can hide a nuclear program in. This also ignores the huge complexity of a nuclear project, and how it is impossible to hide a nuclear test which is a required part of any nuclear weapons program.

Meanwhile for Nazi Germany had no real oversight committee dedicated to ensuring they didn't violate the Versailles Treaty, and they used another nation (the USSR) to help produce equipment and train personnel. Not to mention the western powers knew about the build up of the German army before 1935 when Germany openly declared it was going to ignore the treaty, and they did nothing about it.

Hell, all the way back in 1982, we could figure out what was what.

The Vela Incident was most likely a joint nuclear weapons test with South Africa and Israel, despite being meant to be very covert, it got spotted immediately by...satellites, of course. You can't conduct any nuclear test these days without it getting caught: Do it underground, you're going to trigger every goddamn seismograph in the region. Anywhere not underground is going to get spotted by one satellite or another.

The difference between 1982 and now is that computers have advanced to the point that actual testing isn't really needed unless you really want to announce to the world that you have a nuke.

[Spirit of Hope]

Not at all comparable, but ok. The IAEA has permission to go to declared nuclear sights whenever they want to, to have constant surveillance on those sights, to request visits to any location in Iran and get to go there within basically 30 days, and to use a great variety of other intelligence, forensic and accountability tools.

The IAEA is and was so wired into the Iran nuclear program they noticed the effects of Stuxnet almost immediately. They know how many centrifuges Iran has, how much Uranium they produce, and where all of the uranium goes. The IAEA is filled with dedicated people who know what they are doing, and Iran doesn't have any other nation they can hide a nuclear program in. This also ignores the huge complexity of a nuclear project, and how it is impossible to hide a nuclear test which is a required part of any nuclear weapons program.

Meanwhile for Nazi Germany had no real oversight committee dedicated to ensuring they didn't violate the Versailles Treaty, and they used another nation (the USSR) to help produce equipment and train personnel. Not to mention the western powers knew about the build up of the German army before 1935 when Germany openly declared it was going to ignore the treaty, and they did nothing about it.

Hell, all the way back in 1982, we could figure out what was what.

The Vela Incident was most likely a joint nuclear weapons test with South Africa and Israel, despite being meant to be very covert, it got spotted immediately by...satellites, of course. You can't conduct any nuclear test these days without it getting caught: Do it underground, you're going to trigger every goddamn seismograph in the region. Anywhere not underground is going to get spotted by one satellite or another.

A final note on the Germany vs. Iran false equivalence, would be that a majority of Germany rearmament happened after 1935, when they openly declared they would no longer follow the Versailles Treaty.

In other news, President Trump apparently called off military strikes against Iran in retaliation for the shoot down of the drone, after armed aircraft were already in the air. From the New York Times

Officials said the president had initially approved attacks on a handful of Iranian targets, like radar and missile batteries.

The operation was underway in its early stages when it was called off, a senior administration official said. Planes were in the air and ships were in position, but no missiles had been fired when word came to stand down, the official said.

The difference between 1982 and now is that computers have advanced to the point that actual testing isn't really needed unless you really want to announce to the world that you have a nuke.

1) Secret nuclear weapons make no sense for Iran, if they want a deterrent they need other nations to know they have nuclear weapons. A deterrent other nations don't know about is useless.
2) You still need to test nuclear weapons if you want to make sure they are reliable. One of North Korea's more recent weapons tests most experts agree was a partial failure, in that it probably didn't get the power they were expecting. Especially if you are trying to miniaturize so you can place it in a missile.

[UniversalCommons]

Iran acquired Russian missile technology in 2016 with the s-300. They probably had medium range ballistic missile technology several years ago capable of carrying nuclear weapons. I think they are already a nuclear power and people are posturing and have not stepped up the pressure that is needed. If you can copycat a place like North Korea, there is less need to test the weapons in question. I am curious how much uranium you would need to process over a multiyear period to make a warhead for a weapon. Is 5 years enough time?

Announcing you have a nuclear weapon before you can load it on a missile or other transport makes that device a target. Having several devices before you announce you have them and making sure people don't know where they are would be a first step for Iran.

North Korea for example has a variety of boats that are hard to locate. I would imagine that Iran would do the same thing.

[Bombadil]

Anyone else super impressed by the technical map shared by Iran's Foreign Minister.. https://twitter.com/JZarif

[Galloism]

Anyone else super impressed by the technical map shared by Iran's Foreign Minister.. https://twitter.com/JZarif

Is this real life?

[Bombadil]

Anyone else super impressed by the technical map shared by Iran's Foreign Minister.. https://twitter.com/JZarif

Is this real life?

Yeah, some of the comments are fun, you can see a comparison with the US version here - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... p-response

[Nakena]

Is this real life?

Yeah, some of the comments are fun, you can see a comparison with the US version here - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... p-response

Trump apparently called off a counter strike on iranian facilities. I wonder if someone would have acted differently in this situation.

[North German Realm]

Yeah, some of the comments are fun, you can see a comparison with the US version here - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... p-response

Trump apparently called off a counter strike on iranian facilities. I wonder if someone would have acted differently in this situation.

TBF most people "in this situation" wouldn't have ordered a strike in the first place.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

The Third Reich was able to build an entire military under the noses of the western powers. Excuse me if I doubt the IAEA.

Not at all comparable, but ok. The IAEA has permission to go to declared nuclear sights whenever they want to, to have constant surveillance on those sights, to request visits to any location in Iran and get to go there within basically 30 days, and to use a great variety of other intelligence, forensic and accountability tools.

The IAEA is and was so wired into the Iran nuclear program they noticed the effects of Stuxnet almost immediately. They know how many centrifuges Iran has, how much Uranium they produce, and where all of the uranium goes. The IAEA is filled with dedicated people who know what they are doing, and Iran doesn't have any other nation they can hide a nuclear program in. This also ignores the huge complexity of a nuclear project, and how it is impossible to hide a nuclear test which is a required part of any nuclear weapons program.

Meanwhile for Nazi Germany had no real oversight committee dedicated to ensuring they didn't violate the Versailles Treaty, and they used another nation (the USSR) to help produce equipment and train personnel. Not to mention the western powers knew about the build up of the German army before 1935 when Germany openly declared it was going to ignore the treaty, and they did nothing about it.

I just want to point out I mess read IAEA as IKEA for a split second.

Just long enough to think that IKEA is now selling do it yourself nuke kits

[UniversalCommons]

Not at all comparable, but ok. The IAEA has permission to go to declared nuclear sights whenever they want to, to have constant surveillance on those sights, to request visits to any location in Iran and get to go there within basically 30 days, and to use a great variety of other intelligence, forensic and accountability tools.

The IAEA is and was so wired into the Iran nuclear program they noticed the effects of Stuxnet almost immediately. They know how many centrifuges Iran has, how much Uranium they produce, and where all of the uranium goes. The IAEA is filled with dedicated people who know what they are doing, and Iran doesn't have any other nation they can hide a nuclear program in. This also ignores the huge complexity of a nuclear project, and how it is impossible to hide a nuclear test which is a required part of any nuclear weapons program.

Meanwhile for Nazi Germany had no real oversight committee dedicated to ensuring they didn't violate the Versailles Treaty, and they used another nation (the USSR) to help produce equipment and train personnel. Not to mention the western powers knew about the build up of the German army before 1935 when Germany openly declared it was going to ignore the treaty, and they did nothing about it.

I just want to point out I mess read IAEA as IKEA for a split second.

Just long enough to think that IKEA is now selling do it yourself nuke kits

Iran can deal with both Pakistan and North Korea as well as many of the former Soviet Republics to get additional weapons grade material. Small amounts over time would do what is needed. Iran is much more patient than many of the western powers.

[Durzan]

I just want to point out I mess read IAEA as IKEA for a split second.

Just long enough to think that IKEA is now selling do it yourself nuke kits

Iran can deal with both Pakistan and North Korea as well as many of the former Soviet Republics to get additional weapons grade material. Small amounts over time would do what is needed. Iran is much more patient than many of the western powers.

Which is why the deal was faulty at best from americas POV, and an attempted ruse at worst.

[Spirit of Hope]

I just want to point out I mess read IAEA as IKEA for a split second.

Just long enough to think that IKEA is now selling do it yourself nuke kits

Iran can deal with both Pakistan and North Korea as well as many of the former Soviet Republics to get additional weapons grade material. Small amounts over time would do what is needed. Iran is much more patient than many of the western powers.

Getting small amounts of weapons grade material would be incredibly hard to do, from anywhere let alone North Korea or Pakistan.

Since the former Soviet Republics dont have weapons grade uranium, outside of a small black market, I'm not seeing Iran getting material that way.

Any of those sources providing enough material for a nuclear weapons program clandestinely is basically impossible, which is part of why Iran has a uranium enrichment program. And the deal reach basically stops their ability to get within more than a year of a nuclear break out for 15 years. Once those 15 years are up they are still under IAEA safeguards to prevent nuclear material from being lost or moved to a nuclear program.

And no Iran can't just hide uranium it gets from another source from the IAEA, as the IAEA has the right to inspect anywhere in Iran with at most a 30 day delay.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

I just want to point out I mess read IAEA as IKEA for a split second.

Just long enough to think that IKEA is now selling do it yourself nuke kits

Iran can deal with both Pakistan and North Korea as well as many of the former Soviet Republics to get additional weapons grade material. Small amounts over time would do what is needed. Iran is much more patient than many of the western powers.

I'm disappointed that no one liked my joke.

[US-SSR]

ran can deal with both Pakistan and North Korea as well as many of the former Soviet Republics to get additional weapons grade material. Small amounts over time would do what is needed. Iran is much more patient than many of the western powers.

I'm disappointed that no one liked my joke.

I think it's a great idea, send Iran the IKEA Slåbröd DIY nuke kit and they'll go nuts trying to assemble it. For starters, one piece missing from the package and no Allen wrench.