Iran vs the US Thread

[Aclion]

Theory time: it was neither the US nor the Iranian government, it was the IRGC running rampant with no oversight trying to get back at us for declaring them a terror organization.

This is actually the most likely possibility, which is probably what anyone who's actually aware of what's happening in Iran will tell you.

How is that not Iran?

[The Archipelago Territory]

Literally anyone that pretends it is more likely for the US to "stage" an attack than it is for the regime that's been saying it will do this and that has done this before this very year. As in, most of the people in this thread.

I for one am not pretending. See the Gulf of Tonkin. See Iraq. Manufacturing a pretext for war is something the US has done before -- that and the fact that Bolton is gaga for war. You have not provided anything beyond "yeah well everyone knows Iran is capable of this" for your reasoning.

You’re correct. Trump says a mine was found. But all 44 eyewitnesses say a torpedo hit them! The US tried tried to blow up an American vessel and blame Cuba in the 60’s, but Kennedy denied it and was assassinated a month later! Wake up!

[Duhon]

This is actually the most likely possibility, which is probably what anyone who's actually aware of what's happening in Iran will tell you.

How is that not Iran?

Going rogue.

[Vassenor]

How is that not Iran?

Going rogue.

But that doesn't let the US go to war so Trump can get his War President popularity boost.

[North German Realm]

This is actually the most likely possibility, which is probably what anyone who's actually aware of what's happening in Iran will tell you.

How is that not Iran?

The IRGC has a history of going maverick, both within military capacity and outside of it. The fact the regime's pale imitation of Ribbentrop has had to start the "Why would we do thiiiiiiiiiiis?" rhetoric is because Tehran didn't actually know it was going to happen. They're bad at diplomacy, but there's bad, there's "invites Japanese prime minister to tell him 'we are never ever ever gonna negotiate with Trump' face-to-face" bad, and then there's "invites Japanese Prime Minister, tells him 'we are never ever ever gonna negotiate with Trump' face-to-face, and then destroys a Japanese Tanker' bad. Iran's proven to be the second, but the third is beyond even then at this point. Give it time, they'll grow desperate and become that bad eventually, but not now.

[Aclion]

War President popularity boost.

A war is probably the only thing that can lose trump the election. He'd be an idiot to do it before the election.

[Vassenor]

War President popularity boost.

A war is probably the only thing that can lose trump the election. He'd be an idiot to do it before the election.

Ignoring the fact that polling has him set to lose against any of the potential democratic candidates.

[North German Realm]

A war is probably the only thing that can lose trump the election. He'd be an idiot to do it before the election.

Ignoring the fact that polling has him set to lose against any of the potential democratic candidates.

Yeah, but honestly are you genuinely suggesting Trump's popularity will rise if he starts a war?

[Vassenor]

Ignoring the fact that polling has him set to lose against any of the potential democratic candidates.

Yeah, but honestly are you genuinely suggesting Trump's popularity will rise if he starts a war?

He clearly thinks it will given how hard he's pushing for it.

[North German Realm]

Yeah, but honestly are you genuinely suggesting Trump's popularity will rise if he starts a war?

He clearly thinks it will given how hard he's pushing for it.

Contrary to popular belief, Trump's cabinet is generally smarter than him, at least in their own jobs. Even if he were to be delusional enough to think a unilateral declaration of war wouldn't destroy what remains of his credibility (which is why the US hasn't invaded thus far despite Iranian aggression and attempts to trigger them into it ever since The US left Barjam), his cabinet probably know better.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

Ignoring the fact that polling has him set to lose against any of the potential democratic candidates.

Yeah, but honestly are you genuinely suggesting Trump's popularity will rise if he starts a war?

That can actually happen. There are many Trump supporters who applaud his every move, no matter what it may be.

[Chan Island]

Ignoring the fact that polling has him set to lose against any of the potential democratic candidates.

Yeah, but honestly are you genuinely suggesting Trump's popularity will rise if he starts a war?

It would follow the historical trend actually. Just off the top of my head George Bush (1 and 2), Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair all come to mind. There's nothing like frightening the people with a war and then telling them you'll keep them safe for poll numbers.

[North German Realm]

Yeah, but honestly are you genuinely suggesting Trump's popularity will rise if he starts a war?

That can actually happen. There are many Trump supporters who applaud his every move, no matter what it may be.

Yeah, but those are his stable base. Other than them, would the many who voted on him on a platform of non-intervention actually continue to support him for 2020?

[Chan Island]

That can actually happen. There are many Trump supporters who applaud his every move, no matter what it may be.

Yeah, but those are his stable base. Other than them, would the many who voted on him on a platform of non-intervention actually continue to support him for 2020?

If he's convinced the American people of the war (say, by pulling off a convincing false flag or telling a big enough lie), then very high.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

That can actually happen. There are many Trump supporters who applaud his every move, no matter what it may be.

Yeah, but those are his stable base. Other than them, would the many who voted on him on a platform of non-intervention actually continue to support him for 2020?

If he drafts a convincing argument justifying it, it could happen. Presidents have gone back on their campaign promises before. Surely you know this.

[North German Realm]

Yeah, but those are his stable base. Other than them, would the many who voted on him on a platform of non-intervention actually continue to support him for 2020?

If he's convinced the American people of the war (say, by pulling off a convincing false flag or telling a big enough lie), then very high.

Given the general feedback on the net so far -as well as the rather bipartisan attempt of "No, you can't declare war, shut the fuck up"-, I highly doubt the American people would support any form of war tbh. When the war comes -and it will, it is inevitable- it will be heavily unpopular in the west.

[North German Realm]

Yeah, but those are his stable base. Other than them, would the many who voted on him on a platform of non-intervention actually continue to support him for 2020?

If he drafts a convincing argument justifying it, it could happen. Presidents have gone back on their campaign promises before. Surely you know this.

I do, but I also take into account that presidents going against their promises don't become more popular because of breaking said promises.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

If he drafts a convincing argument justifying it, it could happen. Presidents have gone back on their campaign promises before. Surely you know this.

I do, but I also take into account that presidents going against their promises don't become more popular because of breaking said promises.

In the current environment? One never knows. I never expected him to win the elections, not after all the crap he said during the campaign. And he won. I have seen many of his supporters applaud every single one of his moves, whether good or bad. If he decides to declare war stemming from this incident, I can see and even guarantee many of his supporters will support him, despite breaking a campaign promise. And it is possible for him to become more popular from this. He has sadly proven many Americans like what he’s doing.

[Neu Leonstein]

I do, but I also take into account that presidents going against their promises don't become more popular because of breaking said promises.

They wouldn't see it as a broken promise though. Human reason doesn't work that way. They'd forget the promise and focus on defending "their team" against criticism. You know, basically support the war to own the Libs.

[Chan Island]

If he drafts a convincing argument justifying it, it could happen. Presidents have gone back on their campaign promises before. Surely you know this.

I do, but I also take into account that presidents going against their promises don't become more popular because of breaking said promises.

You're talking about the man who campaigned prominently on the idea of draining the swamp, yet has an administration so unabashedly corrupt that 5 prominent allies are in prison, he hasn't placed his businesses in a trust and there is a legal case for impeaching him based off the emoluments clause.

And yet all that seems to do nothing to deter anybody but those who already didn't like him.

[Chestaan]

I'll never understand why people are always jumping to defend backwards nations who have a rich history of terrorism and supporting terrorist groups. Like, what makes you think that fanatical people are driven by logic?

I too have no idea why people are so quick to support America.

[Novus America]

Yeah, but honestly are you genuinely suggesting Trump's popularity will rise if he starts a war?

He clearly thinks it will given how hard he's pushing for it.

He is actually not though. He is trying to apply more pressure on them to weaken them and make them give concessions.
Not start a war.

[Mojave Confederation]

He clearly thinks it will given how hard he's pushing for it.

He is actually not though. He is trying to apply more pressure on them to weaken them and make them give concessions.
Not start a war.

I mean, is he though?, and how would you know this again?

[The South Falls]

He clearly thinks it will given how hard he's pushing for it.

He is actually not though. He is trying to apply more pressure on them to weaken them and make them give concessions.
Not start a war.

We got them to give concessions before he took office. He's just going around on it.

[Novus America]

He is actually not though. He is trying to apply more pressure on them to weaken them and make them give concessions.
Not start a war.

We got them to give concessions before he took office. He's just going around on it.

No, under that deal we gave all the concessions. They gave us nothing.