Iran vs the US Thread

[Nakena]

Let the american sword be the one to strike down upon those Mullah bastards, for no one else will do it.

[LiberNovusAmericae]

Trump is an idiot for escalating in Iran. We do not need another Iraq where the region is destabilized, and it is time for term limits to kick these war-mongers out of congress.

[Grater Tovakia]

Trump is an idiot for escalating in Iran. We do not need another Iraq where the region is destabilized, and it is time for term limits to kick these war-mongers out of congress.

I would say Iran is the country that has been escalating this.

Also, I am getting some real Tanker war vibes.

[Grater Tovakia]

A US-Iran War would be a catastrophe never before seen in American military history. It would be like invading mainland Japan in 1945 in terms of ferocity of opposition combined with unlimited aid from Russia and China. Just compare the populations of Iran and Iraq and the geography to get an idea of what would happen.

As of right now, people are not too happy with the current regim (ignore the shah lol). We would be able to take out the command and control facilities very quickly, and wipe out the RG. The most dangerous Iranian asset would be silkworms in the strait of Hormuz.

[Thermodolia]

A US-Iran War would be a catastrophe never before seen in American military history. It would be like invading mainland Japan in 1945 in terms of ferocity of opposition combined with unlimited aid from Russia and China. Just compare the populations of Iran and Iraq and the geography to get an idea of what would happen.

As of right now, people are not too happy with the current regim (ignore the shah lol). We would be able to take out the command and control facilities very quickly, and wipe out the RG. The most dangerous Iranian asset would be silkworms in the strait of Hormuz.

All of which would come at the cost of 20,000 Americans dead and a carrier group sunk in the first few months

[North German Realm]

I would be careful on the first part. Iran does not need a good navy to cause shit in the Gulf.
Unfortunately the Gulf is a relatively constrained area.

The best option in a hypothetical war would be to avoid sending carriers to the gulf. Instead they should hit Iran from out in the Indian Ocean. Suicide boats would be useless and Iran would not be able to pinpoint the exact location of the fleet for using missiles.

Once we have sufficiently degraded Iran’s forces then we move into the Gulf.

But I agree that an Iraq style ground invasion would be insanity.

Instead in a hypothetical war our goal should be limited to destruction of the existing government, not creating a new one.

They literally don't need to be in the gulf. Why would they even be sent into the gulf anyway? The fleets are in the Sea of Oman. That's the best position they can be in. Sending them in to the Gulf would be, as you said, ridiculous. And no. Destruction of the existing government in Iran and nothing more? That's literally the dumbest position anyone can take. The moment the central government in Iran is gone, if there's nothing to replace it in the immediate future, there are going to be multiple new states (Kordestan, Khuzestan, Baluchistan, Azarbayjan, Khorasan, will almost definitely try to secede) and multiple new wars (Turkey and Azerbaijan will try to take Iranian Azerbaijan, Iraqi and Syrian Kurds will try to connect themselves to the newly created Kurdish State in Iran, Iraq will move for Khuzestan only to be stopped by Turkey and Russia, and there might be a war in the -istan countries in the Northeast.) and that will only create destruction in a form that will make the Balkan troubles look like a few kids throwing around fireworks on Chaharshanbeh Soori.

No. If the goal is anything related to the government, it will inevitably end up into either a long-term "occupation", an immediate plebiscite, or long-term instability in forms the Middle East hasn't seen since the fall of the Abbasid Caliphate. Which is, of course, what the government occupying Iran has been planning since the first day, if you really think about it.

[Shamhnan Insir]

A US-Iran War would be a catastrophe never before seen in American military history. It would be like invading mainland Japan in 1945 in terms of ferocity of opposition combined with unlimited aid from Russia and China. Just compare the populations of Iran and Iraq and the geography to get an idea of what would happen.

As of right now, people are not too happy with the current regim (ignore the shah lol). We would be able to take out the command and control facilities very quickly, and wipe out the RG. The most dangerous Iranian asset would be silkworms in the strait of Hormuz.

Or the colossal insurgent force you would spawn in the wake of the "take out command and control facilities" phase. It's a stupid idea at a stupid time unless your goal is to further mess up the region, get Israel wiped out, and push millions more people into migrating somewhere "safer".

[Nakena]

The best thing to happen to Iran would be a total and radical revolt against Islam itself, up to the point where they obliberate it themself from their Nation to the last.

But this cannot come from outside.

[Ifreann]

What if instead of actually going to war, everyone just agrees to lie to Trump and tell him that there's a war.

[North German Realm]

The best thing to happen to Iran would be a total and radical revolt against Islam itself, up to the point where they obliberate it themself from their Nation to the last.

But this cannot come from outside.

I can't speak for the rural areas, but we in the larger metropolitan centers have all but abandoned Islam alltogether here. Though it is new, this is the first time in 10 years that I've seen people brazenly eat and drink in Ramadan here, even at the risk of lashes. There were a chain of mosque burnings a few months ago (nobody was happier about that by me), and most "Imam"s have pretty much surrendered to having fucking bodyguards when walking in public.

[Zhivotnoye]

A few corrections:

1- Millennium Challenge 2002 begs to differ.

2- It in fact does have to be land-based if you want it to be a success for the U.S. Enough of Iran's military and Nuclear facilities are dug in deep underground.
Iran's defensive system are not as 'wack' as you claim. In 2017 it launched six missiles towars Syria, targeting Daesh with some degree of success. Nobody claims Iran's military to be 'impressive', though it's without a doubt capable of dealing some serious damage to whoever attacks it.

3- I'm not sure anyone ever claimed that Russia would come to Irans aid, or at least nobody who knows the diplomatic theatre. At most Russia will provide arms and intel to Iran, but it won't go any further than that. More dangerous are the many militias around that region who, without a doubt, will join the war in support of Iran.

4- The popularity of the Iranian state, and what 'popularity' implies are very much up for debate. Nonetheless, the state not enjoying popular support does not magically mean that a foreign invader would get that support.

But...But haven't you listened to Hillary and Dubya? Every foreign regime is unpopular because they want America to invade them.

Oh yes, i completely forgot, stupid me.

Trump is an idiot for escalating in Iran. We do not need another Iraq where the region is destabilized, and it is time for term limits to kick these war-mongers out of congress.

I would say Iran is the country that has been escalating this.

How so?

A US-Iran War would be a catastrophe never before seen in American military history. It would be like invading mainland Japan in 1945 in terms of ferocity of opposition combined with unlimited aid from Russia and China. Just compare the populations of Iran and Iraq and the geography to get an idea of what would happen.

As of right now, people are not too happy with the current regim (ignore the shah lol). We would be able to take out the command and control facilities very quickly, and wipe out the RG. The most dangerous Iranian asset would be silkworms in the strait of Hormuz.

Ah yes, because when people are somewhat unhappy with their government they tend to support foreign invadors...

[Novus America]

I would be careful on the first part. Iran does not need a good navy to cause shit in the Gulf.
Unfortunately the Gulf is a relatively constrained area.

The best option in a hypothetical war would be to avoid sending carriers to the gulf. Instead they should hit Iran from out in the Indian Ocean. Suicide boats would be useless and Iran would not be able to pinpoint the exact location of the fleet for using missiles.

Once we have sufficiently degraded Iran’s forces then we move into the Gulf.

But I agree that an Iraq style ground invasion would be insanity.

Instead in a hypothetical war our goal should be limited to destruction of the existing government, not creating a new one.

They literally don't need to be in the gulf. Why would they even be sent into the gulf anyway? The fleets are in the Sea of Oman. That's the best position they can be in. Sending them in to the Gulf would be, as you said, ridiculous. And no. Destruction of the existing government in Iran and nothing more? That's literally the dumbest position anyone can take. The moment the central government in Iran is gone, if there's nothing to replace it in the immediate future, there are going to be multiple new states (Kordestan, Khuzestan, Baluchistan, Azarbayjan, Khorasan, will almost definitely try to secede) and multiple new wars (Turkey and Azerbaijan will try to take Iranian Azerbaijan, Iraqi and Syrian Kurds will try to connect themselves to the newly created Kurdish State in Iran, Iraq will move for Khuzestan only to be stopped by Turkey and Russia, and there might be a war in the -istan countries in the Northeast.) and that will only create destruction in a form that will make the Balkan troubles look like a few kids throwing around fireworks on Chaharshanbeh Soori.

No. If the goal is anything related to the government, it will inevitably end up into either a long-term "occupation", an immediate plebiscite, or long-term instability in forms the Middle East hasn't seen since the fall of the Abbasid Caliphate. Which is, of course, what the government occupying Iran has been planning since the first day, if you really think about it.

Well this is why I am against starting a war. But if Iran starts it, I would absolutely oppose pouring trillions of US dollars into a black hole.

Ideally the Iranians would fix things, create a new government and all.

I am not for starting the fire, but if the Middle East wants to start a fire well we should let it burn itself out.

[Zhivotnoye]

What if instead of actually going to war, everyone just agrees to lie to Trump and tell him that there's a war.

That would be pretty cool, i'm in.

[Ostroeuropa]

A war with Iran can be won, it depends on the goals of the war and the amount of men and material we're prepared to expend.

Topple the government and GTFO?
Easily done, especially in cooperation with a grassroots uprising.

Fuck shit up and GTFO?
Even simpler.

Occupy the place and purge resistance?
...
Doable. Provided our will doesn't break after seeing boatloads of coffins return home.



Iran is not in a position to mount a defense against anything except an occupation and they know it, so they've put all their eggs into making occupation as bloody and difficult as possible.

A limited war with naval bombardment, air superiority, and occupation of only coastal towns and cities would be the most effective bang for buck kind of war, but if Iran refuses to capitulate and continues to fight from the hills and mountains then that occupation could last decades. Actually going in to the hills and mountains to root them out? That's where the coffins start coming home.

It'd doable in technical terms, just not political ones.

It will also radicalize the populace and the region, and especially radicalize the mountain regions if we resort to bombardments and starving the fighters out, since fighters eat before civilians do.

Have you ever considered working for British counter intelligence/military policy analysis think tanks?

I’m always taken aback by the level of cold but very precise razor sharp mindwork that goes behind these posts especially as they relate to military and political matters

I'm studying policy and haven't particularly picked a field yet, but am intending to go into policy as it impacts men. No particular reason not to have other specialities over time though.

[Novus America]

The best thing to happen to Iran would be a total and radical revolt against Islam itself, up to the point where they obliberate it themself from their Nation to the last.

But this cannot come from outside.

This would be best of course. But it unfortunately will not happen.

[Zhivotnoye]

I would be careful on the first part. Iran does not need a good navy to cause shit in the Gulf.
Unfortunately the Gulf is a relatively constrained area.

The best option in a hypothetical war would be to avoid sending carriers to the gulf. Instead they should hit Iran from out in the Indian Ocean. Suicide boats would be useless and Iran would not be able to pinpoint the exact location of the fleet for using missiles.

Once we have sufficiently degraded Iran’s forces then we move into the Gulf.

But I agree that an Iraq style ground invasion would be insanity.

Instead in a hypothetical war our goal should be limited to destruction of the existing government, not creating a new one.

They literally don't need to be in the gulf. Why would they even be sent into the gulf anyway? The fleets are in the Sea of Oman. That's the best position they can be in. Sending them in to the Gulf would be, as you said, ridiculous. And no. Destruction of the existing government in Iran and nothing more? That's literally the dumbest position anyone can take. The moment the central government in Iran is gone, if there's nothing to replace it in the immediate future, there are going to be multiple new states (Kordestan, Khuzestan, Baluchistan, Azarbayjan, Khorasan, will almost definitely try to secede) and multiple new wars (Turkey and Azerbaijan will try to take Iranian Azerbaijan, Iraqi and Syrian Kurds will try to connect themselves to the newly created Kurdish State in Iran, Iraq will move for Khuzestan only to be stopped by Turkey and Russia, and there might be a war in the -istan countries in the Northeast.) and that will only create destruction in a form that will make the Balkan troubles look like a few kids throwing around fireworks on Chaharshanbeh Soori.

I'll have to admit, you have a great imagination.

[LiberNovusAmericae]

Trump is an idiot for escalating in Iran. We do not need another Iraq where the region is destabilized, and it is time for term limits to kick these war-mongers out of congress.

I would say Iran is the country that has been escalating this.

Also, I am getting some real Tanker war vibes.

You're forgetting that Trump violated the deal back in 2018. I would call that escalation on Trump's part. This is continuation with Trump still needling them, and the "escalation" by Iran I would argue is more like retaliation.

[North German Realm]

I'll have to admit, you have a great imagination.

And you lack any understanding about the secessionist movements in said areas in Iran and the ambitions of our neighbors on said areas. The Middle East has always been an arsenal, waiting for someone to drop a flaming match. The Iranian government? They've been trying to throw the entire matchbox every damn minute this last 40 years.

[Novus America]

As of right now, people are not too happy with the current regim (ignore the shah lol). We would be able to take out the command and control facilities very quickly, and wipe out the RG. The most dangerous Iranian asset would be silkworms in the strait of Hormuz.

Or the colossal insurgent force you would spawn in the wake of the "take out command and control facilities" phase. It's a stupid idea at a stupid time unless your goal is to further mess up the region, get Israel wiped out, and push millions more people into migrating somewhere "safer".

Israel would be fine. It is quite a good distance from Iran anyways.
Sure we would get another mess like Libya but that is not the end of the world. I am not for starting it, but if Iran does we must fight to win, and we cannot afford to be the ones to fix things up.

If the Middle East chooses to burn, well we cannot stop it.

[Thermodolia]

What if instead of actually going to war, everyone just agrees to lie to Trump and tell him that there's a war.

That would involve John “let’s bomb everything” Bolton Cooperating

[Ostroeuropa]

What if instead of actually going to war, everyone just agrees to lie to Trump and tell him that there's a war.

That would involve John “let’s bomb everything” Bolton Cooperating

Bolton makes me sad. Because he's all HOO-RAH about it, but isn't even particularly moral when you get right down to it. He's not up there demanding we bomb the shit out of Saudi Arabia and invade North Korea.
So it's not like, pure exceptionalism and muh liberty. It's corrupted by moneys.

And that makes what he's doing less of a; "He's an ideological extremis" thing, and more of a "Oh. He's just scum." thing.

And it's like, John... you can make money other ways?

[Gormwood]

Or the colossal insurgent force you would spawn in the wake of the "take out command and control facilities" phase. It's a stupid idea at a stupid time unless your goal is to further mess up the region, get Israel wiped out, and push millions more people into migrating somewhere "safer".

Israel would be fine. It is quite a good distance from Iran anyways.
Sure we would get another mess like Libya but that is not the end of the world. I am not for starting it, but if Iran does we must fight to win, and we cannot afford to be the ones to fix things up.

If the Middle East chooses to burn, well we cannot stop it.

We can not throw a can of gas in however.

[Novus America]

Israel would be fine. It is quite a good distance from Iran anyways.
Sure we would get another mess like Libya but that is not the end of the world. I am not for starting it, but if Iran does we must fight to win, and we cannot afford to be the ones to fix things up.

If the Middle East chooses to burn, well we cannot stop it.

We can not throw a can of gas in however.

If Iran wants to start a war we have no choice but to destroy their government.
I am not saying we start it, but if it did start, then we have no choice.

[Drongonia]

If Iran starts a war, the US has to destroy them to regain peace.

But should the US start a war? No, not unless there is 100% cast iron evidence that Iran are planning an imminent attack. We don't need another Middle Eastern conflict for the US and the rest of the Western world to be entangled in for another two decades or so.

[Ifreann]

What if instead of actually going to war, everyone just agrees to lie to Trump and tell him that there's a war.

That would involve John “let’s bomb everything” Bolton Cooperating

It's not a perfect plan, I'll admit that.