Iran vs the US Thread

[Rothbardian Paradise]

I don’t think anyone wants to be the first to lob a nuke - especially against the country that has more nukes than anybody else.

Even Iran isn’t suicidal.

Iran's leaders want what all leaders want... to remain in power.

Really hard to do that after starting a war with a very obviously more powerful country. Impossible to do after nuking a much more powerful, nuclear-armed country.


I don't believe that Iran attacked these tankers not because I think their leaders are good people (they're obviously not), but because I know they have some sense of self-preservation. They know that the USA recently has been angling towards war with them. They know that such a war would be very bad for them. Basically, they don't have any motive to do this, and good reasons not to.

I agree. The strategic dynamic makes no sense. With the sanctions back in place, Iran's economy is barely afloat as it is.

Speaking of that, I think it's most likely that Trump will respond with harsher sanctions.

[Jolthig]

Guess trump reverted a military strike on iran

[Major-Tom]

Never underestimate Trump's desire for a perceived popularity boost.

Declaring (or attempting to declare) war on Iran would be the end of Trump's presidency. I think he has consumed the remainder of his term's political capital, and his own base wouldn't support it.

I'm iffy on this one. On one hand, yes, he did run on a "non-interventionist" foreign policy (which he has since begun to abandon). In theory, this would alienate a substantial number of voters - but this is Trump. He could kick a Senator in the teeth over a dirty look and get a bump in the polls, all thanks to an insanely fervent base.

[Rothbardian Paradise]

Guess trump reverted a military strike on iran

Yep. Shows you 1) how crazy John Bolton is and 2) how mercurial Trump's judgement is.

[Beggnig]

There won't be a war. I don't even think there will be military strikes. There is virtually no public support for a war against Iran, and Iran would never declare war on America in its current economic condition. Iran's GDP is projected to contract by 9% next year.

Never underestimate Trump's desire for a perceived popularity boost.

Yeah because starting another Middle East war would be really popular with the base of a man that was saying "America First, we need to stop being world police". Or do you mean those outside his base, for which starting another war would be yet more evidence that he is evil and unhinged?

[El-Amin Caliphate]

Those massacres have no bearing on you proving your claims. This is how debate and general discussion works. When someone asks you to prove a claim you yourself made, it is your responsibility to prove said claim that you made.

Wallahi, Iran has demonstrated their intentions in Iraq and Syria is this not enough? The children gassed to death by Bashar? The children run over by their tanks? Massacres so great even the crooks who support Bashar condemn their brutality? Do you not see it? Do you not see the colonization and theft by their hands? Do you not know of their gangs, that exist for sole reason of murdering people? Wallahi tears are shed writing this, tears are shed knowing that no one on this earth not even people who call themselves Muslims dare take a stand against them, no one and the earth has turned their backs on the Arab people at let them die in the most horrendous of ways at the hands of the Safavids and when the one lions with the courage to fight them fought them and was murdered by these people, who shouted loudly and proudly their hatred, as Saddam said the Kalima, he was a martyr and when Umar Ibn Khattab said Iraq was Allah's spear in the Earth and the skull of the Arabs, Saddam brought this saying to life under his leadership, May Allah grant his Akhirah with Izz for his services.

Thank you for providing evidence of your claims. Although you still have to prove:
1:

Iraq has Kurds in it too, akhi. And what's up with all this love for Saddam Hussein? And Trump is not on the Muslims' side at all.

The Martyr, Abu Udai Saddam Hussein al-Tikriti al-Iraqi, was a sword of justice in the side of the Safavids of our era who strove hard for his nation and people, he was harsh against the Safavids and traitors, he was the shield of the Arab people, he was the guardian of all the Arab states against the evil that the Safavids of our era stand for, if not for him, as we see today with the detestable and filthy rotten Houthi movement they would be firing their missiles into Mekkah and calling it "Resistance" they would be in the Peninsula of our Prophet the home of the Arabs, the land of everything we hold sacred, spreading their evil beliefs and murdering our people like they do today in Iraq and Syria.

Under President Saddam, these group's wouldn't operate without harsh response from Saddam, these dogs wouldn't dare utter a word against Aisha, these dogs today sit in Baghdad spewing their hatred of Islam on Satellite television and on screens across the country. Look at Aleppo, look at Ghouta this is what they stand for, and Saddam did not allow this in his country or any Arab state, he took the fight to the beast and fought them harsh and showed them he would not stand for it.

And when Iraq was invaded in 2003 it was none other than the Devil's Organization [Badr Organization] and the Party of Satan [Hezbollah] that were among the first to take part in the fighting, and when the murdered Saddam they shouted their abuse and hatred of the companions insulting Aisha and Umar, these cowards couldn't even show their faces in front of the President and as they insulted him and our religion he stood firm and he said nothing aside from "There is no God but Allah" may Allah make these honorable words our last, Allah blessed him with martyrdom at the hands of the Safavid traitors.

The companions whom they hate, would judge a man by how he lived, based on how he died, and what we see from Saddam was a lion and a knight of honor and glory.

2: That Saddam Hussein's war crimes against the Kurds are exaggerated
3: And your new claim that he said the shahaadah
Also, you said that Iraq struck first. That puts Iraq in the wrong unless it was for a just cause. You claim that Iraq's just cause for doing so was to protect the Arabs in Ahwaz. So now you have to prove that Saddam Hussein preemptively struck Iran to protect Ahwaz.

[Jolthig]

Guess trump reverted a military strike on iran

Yep. Shows you 1) how crazy John Bolton is and 2) how mercurial Trump's judgement is.

Well, at least trump reverted but yeah

[Khataiy]

Wallahi, Iran has demonstrated their intentions in Iraq and Syria is this not enough? The children gassed to death by Bashar? The children run over by their tanks? Massacres so great even the crooks who support Bashar condemn their brutality? Do you not see it? Do you not see the colonization and theft by their hands? Do you not know of their gangs, that exist for sole reason of murdering people? Wallahi tears are shed writing this, tears are shed knowing that no one on this earth not even people who call themselves Muslims dare take a stand against them, no one and the earth has turned their backs on the Arab people at let them die in the most horrendous of ways at the hands of the Safavids and when the one lions with the courage to fight them fought them and was murdered by these people, who shouted loudly and proudly their hatred, as Saddam said the Kalima, he was a martyr and when Umar Ibn Khattab said Iraq was Allah's spear in the Earth and the skull of the Arabs, Saddam brought this saying to life under his leadership, May Allah grant his Akhirah with Izz for his services.

Thank you for providing evidence of your claims. Although you still have to prove:
1:

The Martyr, Abu Udai Saddam Hussein al-Tikriti al-Iraqi, was a sword of justice in the side of the Safavids of our era who strove hard for his nation and people, he was harsh against the Safavids and traitors, he was the shield of the Arab people, he was the guardian of all the Arab states against the evil that the Safavids of our era stand for, if not for him, as we see today with the detestable and filthy rotten Houthi movement they would be firing their missiles into Mekkah and calling it "Resistance" they would be in the Peninsula of our Prophet the home of the Arabs, the land of everything we hold sacred, spreading their evil beliefs and murdering our people like they do today in Iraq and Syria.

Under President Saddam, these group's wouldn't operate without harsh response from Saddam, these dogs wouldn't dare utter a word against Aisha, these dogs today sit in Baghdad spewing their hatred of Islam on Satellite television and on screens across the country. Look at Aleppo, look at Ghouta this is what they stand for, and Saddam did not allow this in his country or any Arab state, he took the fight to the beast and fought them harsh and showed them he would not stand for it.

And when Iraq was invaded in 2003 it was none other than the Devil's Organization [Badr Organization] and the Party of Satan [Hezbollah] that were among the first to take part in the fighting, and when the murdered Saddam they shouted their abuse and hatred of the companions insulting Aisha and Umar, these cowards couldn't even show their faces in front of the President and as they insulted him and our religion he stood firm and he said nothing aside from "There is no God but Allah" may Allah make these honorable words our last, Allah blessed him with martyrdom at the hands of the Safavid traitors.

The companions whom they hate, would judge a man by how he lived, based on how he died, and what we see from Saddam was a lion and a knight of honor and glory.

2: That Saddam Hussein's war crimes against the Kurds are exaggerated
3: And your new claim that he said the shahaadah
Also, you said that Iraq struck first. That puts Iraq in the wrong unless it was for a just cause. You claim that Iraq's just cause for doing so was to protect the Arabs in Ahwaz. So now you have to prove that Saddam Hussein preemptively struck Iran to protect Ahwaz.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/saddam-hu ... -iraq/4620
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Khuz ... #Aftermath

I think you should study Saddam's war on the Safavids

[El-Amin Caliphate]

I mean, conscientious objection exists. Not that I have to worry about that, I have CCHS

Holy *hit. Never had heard of that disease before

Yeah, it's very rare, only 1200 - 1400 cases worldwide.

but good on ya for sticking it out.

I'm ok, but thx

I got some major scoliosis, but I had the corrective spinal surgery for it years ago, so I'd probably be enlisted in some far-fetched hypothetical.

AlHamdulillah that it was corrected.

[Rothbardian Paradise]

Declaring (or attempting to declare) war on Iran would be the end of Trump's presidency. I think he has consumed the remainder of his term's political capital, and his own base wouldn't support it.

I'm iffy on this one. On one hand, yes, he did run on a "non-interventionist" foreign policy (which he has since begun to abandon). In theory, this would alienate a substantial number of voters - but this is Trump. He could kick a Senator in the teeth over a dirty look and get a bump in the polls, all thanks to an insanely fervent base.

It wouldn't make him any more popular. People have mostly made up their minds about Trump, and a war against Iran isn't going to gain him any new fans. The effect, if any, would be that some members of his base would no longer support him.

[Beggnig]

Guess trump reverted a military strike on iran

Yep. Shows you 1) how crazy John Bolton is and 2) how mercurial Trump's judgement is.

Honestly I reckon/hope this was just a Nixon-style "madman" move, like when he sent carriers to North Korea.
Make Iran second guess if you're actually willing to strike to extract concessions.

[Vykel]

Oh I still hold out hope. There’s lots of saber rattling going on, but trump keeps pulling back from an actual war.

There won't be a war. I don't even think there will be military strikes. There is virtually no public support for a war against Iran, and Iran would never declare war on America in its current economic condition. Iran's GDP is projected to contract by 9% next year.

Iran's GDP will contract because of US sanctions. They will keep doing attacks to raise the cost for America of keeping the sanctions. From there it can escalate until war, depending on how the US responds.

[North German Realm]

I'm pretty sure Trump noping out of the at-that-point-decided strike was due to Russia's indirect threat about how attacking Iran would be catastrophic, though I can't know for sure.

[Rothbardian Paradise]

I'm pretty sure Trump noping out of the at-that-point-decided strike was due to Russia's indirect threat about how attacking Iran would be catastrophic, though I can't know for sure.

yeah, I was thinking that Russia has to play some role in all of this. Russia would certainly be unhappy with an American intervention in Iran.

[El-Amin Caliphate]

Thank you for providing evidence of your claims. Although you still have to prove:
1:

2: That Saddam Hussein's war crimes against the Kurds are exaggerated
3: And your new claim that he said the shahaadah
Also, you said that Iraq struck first. That puts Iraq in the wrong unless it was for a just cause. You claim that Iraq's just cause for doing so was to protect the Arabs in Ahwaz. So now you have to prove that Saddam Hussein preemptively struck Iran to protect Ahwaz.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/saddam-hu ... -iraq/4620
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Khuz ... #Aftermath

Ok, now you have to prove that the war crimes against the Kurds are exaggerated. Also your 2nd link doesn't help your case.

[Vykel]

I'm pretty sure Trump noping out of the at-that-point-decided strike was due to Russia's indirect threat about how attacking Iran would be catastrophic, though I can't know for sure.

Russia is fed up with Iran too. I can't imagine them being happy with Iran provoking Israel or Saudi Arabia when Russia wants to build good relations with both. Putin shouldn't protect Iran no matter what, otherwise it will just encourage the Iranian leadership to do as they please in the Middle East.

[Rothbardian Paradise]

Yep. Shows you 1) how crazy John Bolton is and 2) how mercurial Trump's judgement is.

Honestly I reckon/hope this was just a Nixon-style "madman" move, like when he sent carriers to North Korea.
Make Iran second guess if you're actually willing to strike to extract concessions.

I hope so. Anything more than stricter sanctions would be a disaster.

[North German Realm]

I'm pretty sure Trump noping out of the at-that-point-decided strike was due to Russia's indirect threat about how attacking Iran would be catastrophic, though I can't know for sure.

yeah, I was thinking that Russia has to play some role in all of this. Russia would certainly be unhappy with an American intervention in Iran.

Not really. Russia isn't going to be "unhappy" about a possible invasion of Iran, because -provided there is an Iran left afterwards- the next Iranian state is inevitably going to fall under Russia's sphere of influence again, and until then, Russia's only going to benefit from Iranian oil not selling as well as it can.

[El-Amin Caliphate]

I'm pretty sure Trump noping out of the at-that-point-decided strike was due to Russia's indirect threat about how attacking Iran would be catastrophic, though I can't know for sure.

Russia is fed up with Iran too. I can't imagine them being happy with Iran provoking Israel or Saudi Arabia when Russia wants to build good relations with both. Putin shouldn't protect Iran no matter what, otherwise it will just encourage the Iranian leadership to do as they please in the Middle East.

Iran should've never made relations with Russia in the first place.

[-Ocelot-]

I'm pretty sure Trump noping out of the at-that-point-decided strike was due to Russia's indirect threat about how attacking Iran would be catastrophic, though I can't know for sure.

Russia is fed up with Iran too. I can't imagine them being happy with Iran provoking Israel or Saudi Arabia when Russia wants to build good relations with both. Putin shouldn't protect Iran no matter what, otherwise it will just encourage the Iranian leadership to do as they please in the Middle East.

In the multipolar world Putin envisions there are no true alliances or morals between nations. Why should Iran obey Russia unconditionally if Russia doesn't have the leverage to keep them in line?

[Vykel]

Russia is fed up with Iran too. I can't imagine them being happy with Iran provoking Israel or Saudi Arabia when Russia wants to build good relations with both. Putin shouldn't protect Iran no matter what, otherwise it will just encourage the Iranian leadership to do as they please in the Middle East.

Iran should've never made relations with Russia in the first place.

That's true. Russia invaded or supported insurgents in Iran more than once and it will keep happening because one is a strategic and resource rich country and the other is a great power that is right next to it. The current phase of good relations is an accident.

Russia is fed up with Iran too. I can't imagine them being happy with Iran provoking Israel or Saudi Arabia when Russia wants to build good relations with both. Putin shouldn't protect Iran no matter what, otherwise it will just encourage the Iranian leadership to do as they please in the Middle East.

In the multipolar world Putin envisions there are no true alliances or morals between nations. Why should Iran obey Russia unconditionally if Russia doesn't have the leverage to keep them in line?

I don't expect them to obey Russia unconditionally, but they have no alternatives right now. Iran isn't going to become a US ally for sure, so what else could they do? If Russia doesn't protect them unconditionally that's one less incentive for Iran to spread chaos

[Rothbardian Paradise]

Yep. Shows you 1) how crazy John Bolton is and 2) how mercurial Trump's judgement is.

Honestly I reckon/hope this was just a Nixon-style "madman" move, like when he sent carriers to North Korea.
Make Iran second guess if you're actually willing to strike to extract concessions.

I could read it both ways. After Venezuela, I believe John Bolton is fully capable of that kind of stupidity.

[North German Realm]

Iran should've never made relations with Russia in the first place.

That's true. Russia invaded or supported insurgents in Iran more than once and it will keep happening because one is a strategic and resource rich country and the other is a great power that is right next to it. The current phase of good relations is an accident.

It's really not though. Iran's had a history of having "Good relations with" (read: Being the puppet of) Russia when Russia can use them for power projection. This is nothing more than Russia essentially running Iran during the Qajar Era, especially since Putin's Russia is still stuck in the same diplomatic world order that was around during the Russian Empire's last century.

[Phoenicaea]

sort of Berlusconi swamp grotesque government, in the white house, to launch strikes, few years ago i would have never supposed.

[The Archipelago Territory]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-cal ... minute-wsj
Trump retaliated but called it off