Hong Kong

[Ethel mermania]

Ι could happily see Texas, Florida and California break away to form a new country, the southern Mexican part was distinct before the US came bashing in.

In terms of timeline it would be more akin to remaking Central America into a new Aztec empire.

Anyway, what's most likely to happen is that a large amount of people in HK will leave and be replaced by mainland Chinese so by 2047 I guess it will be less of an issue as to HK's status.

The One Country-Two Systems policy, put in place after the handover of sovereignty in 1997 to maintain Hong Kong’s status quo for 50 years, runs out in 2047. It is still unclear what Hong Kong’s status would become once that deadline passes, but the political crises in recent years add to the uncertainty of its political future.

Willy Lam, an adjunct professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said even though the extradition bill has been suspended, “it won’t remove the anxiety because Beijing is determined to promote political integration between Hong Kong and China”. This includes infrastructure projects such as a bridge linking Hong Kong, Macau and Southern China’s the Greater Bay Area, a daily quota of 150 mainland Chinese migrants to Hong Kong, and the indoctrination of ideology at schools and the silencing of critical media.

Lam said both waves of emigration, in 1989 and 2019, demonstrated “a serious degree of distrust of the Chinese Communist Party” and are linked with the fear that the Chinese system may encroach upon Hong Kong’s core values like the rule of law, civil rights and freedoms.

Even young people active in the recent protests express helplessness and say they too would leave if their efforts to uphold Hong Kong’s current freedoms fail.

“If there is nothing we can do to save Hong Kong, I would focus on working hard in the next few years and seek to move abroad,” said a 24-year-old athlete who identified himself as Tom.

But many say they are actually reluctant to leave their home and emigration is a difficult and unwilling choice.

“I love Hong Kong but we have no other choice,” said Wong. “If things weren’t this bad, who would want to leave the place where you grew up and leave behind your elderly parents and friends?”

I am fond of Hong Kong, but i too would advise anyone who cares about political freedom to leave it. A lot of things can happen between now and 2047, but the PRC is the only one playing the long game here.

[Novus America]

Ah yes, Safety.

I may live in a totalitarian oligarchy that has sold my soul to the highest bidder, 14% of the population may be going hungry tonight, I may only make 400 bucks a month, and I may at any time magically disappear, but at least I am totally safe guys.

China’s economy is scheduled to surpass the USA at some point

I expect living standards will rise all across

Dude, Nigeria has a buggier economy than Singapore.
Do you actually think that makes people in Nigeria better off?

Under no projection whatsoever will the PRC come remotely close to the US on GDP per capital.

China might end up with a slightly larger pie, but with so many people, a much smaller slice per person (after the oligarchs take most of it for themselves).

[Novus America]

In terms of timeline it would be more akin to remaking Central America into a new Aztec empire.

Anyway, what's most likely to happen is that a large amount of people in HK will leave and be replaced by mainland Chinese so by 2047 I guess it will be less of an issue as to HK's status.

The One Country-Two Systems policy, put in place after the handover of sovereignty in 1997 to maintain Hong Kong’s status quo for 50 years, runs out in 2047. It is still unclear what Hong Kong’s status would become once that deadline passes, but the political crises in recent years add to the uncertainty of its political future.

Willy Lam, an adjunct professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said even though the extradition bill has been suspended, “it won’t remove the anxiety because Beijing is determined to promote political integration between Hong Kong and China”. This includes infrastructure projects such as a bridge linking Hong Kong, Macau and Southern China’s the Greater Bay Area, a daily quota of 150 mainland Chinese migrants to Hong Kong, and the indoctrination of ideology at schools and the silencing of critical media.

Lam said both waves of emigration, in 1989 and 2019, demonstrated “a serious degree of distrust of the Chinese Communist Party” and are linked with the fear that the Chinese system may encroach upon Hong Kong’s core values like the rule of law, civil rights and freedoms.

Even young people active in the recent protests express helplessness and say they too would leave if their efforts to uphold Hong Kong’s current freedoms fail.

“If there is nothing we can do to save Hong Kong, I would focus on working hard in the next few years and seek to move abroad,” said a 24-year-old athlete who identified himself as Tom.

But many say they are actually reluctant to leave their home and emigration is a difficult and unwilling choice.

“I love Hong Kong but we have no other choice,” said Wong. “If things weren’t this bad, who would want to leave the place where you grew up and leave behind your elderly parents and friends?”

I am fond of Hong Kong, but i too would advise anyone who cares about political freedom to leave it. A lot of things can happen between now and 2047, but the PRC is the only one playing the long game here.

And regardless all Hong Kong’s freedoms and special economic benefits are gone in 2047.

[Novus America]

However, I predict HK will remain an elite commercial center.

And your prediction is completely wrong. It only has this because it has autonomy. As the PRC cracks down, capital will leave.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com ... e35ef678d2

Even what you want, as objectionable as we may find it, you will not get.
Oh you will get mainland PRC oppression. But not keep your economic status.

[Infected Mushroom]

However, I predict HK will remain an elite commercial center.

And your prediction is completely wrong. It only has this because it has autonomy. As the PRC cracks down, capital will leave.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com ... e35ef678d2

Even what you want, as objectionable as we may find it, you will not get.
Oh you will get mainland PRC oppression. But not keep your economic status.

And large and big chinese businesses will move in

I see no problem

It doesn’t concern me what nationality the big businesses are run by

Local HK corporate lords are just as oligarchic

As for western companies and nations, they’ll continue to put business with China first as they always have (they need China’s cheap products and labour to keep domestic political promises indirectly; it’s all mutual backrubbing)

[Novus America]

And your prediction is completely wrong. It only has this because it has autonomy. As the PRC cracks down, capital will leave.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com ... e35ef678d2

Even what you want, as objectionable as we may find it, you will not get.
Oh you will get mainland PRC oppression. But not keep your economic status.

And large and big chinese businesses will move in

I see no problem

It doesn’t concern me what nationality the big businesses are run by

Local HK corporate lords are just as oligarchic

As for western companies and nations, they’ll continue to put business with China first as they always have (they need China’s cheap products and labour to keep domestic political promises indirectly; it’s all mutual backrubbing)

No, because the large PRC businesses will stay in Shanghai while Hong Kong becomes a neglected second rate city. Shanghai will crush you like a bug.

Wake up, the West is increasingly turning against the PRC.
We have already started taking action.

Cheap labor and cheap products? We can get those anywhere.
We do not need them, as much as the greedy want them and we can get them from elsewhere.
Already factories in the PRC a closing down and relocating to Vietnam and Indonesia.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com ... bf8f989972

Western countries are increasingly looking to invest elsewhere.

[Infected Mushroom]

And large and big chinese businesses will move in

I see no problem

It doesn’t concern me what nationality the big businesses are run by

Local HK corporate lords are just as oligarchic

As for western companies and nations, they’ll continue to put business with China first as they always have (they need China’s cheap products and labour to keep domestic political promises indirectly; it’s all mutual backrubbing)

No, because the large PRC businesses will stay in Shanghai while Hong Kong becomes a neglected second rate city. Shanghai will crush you like a bug.

Wake up, the West is increasingly turning against the PRC.
We have already started taking action.

Cheap labor and cheap products? We can get those anywhere.
We do not need them, as much as the greedy want them and we can get them from elsewhere.
Already factories in the PRC a closing down and relocating to Vietnam and Indonesia.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com ... bf8f989972

Western countries are increasingly looking to invest elsewhere.

I highly doubt this will happen but IF it does happen...

If Shanghai "crushes" Hong Kong like a bug, it will be because it is better at supplying (economically) the people of Hong Kong with the consumer goods and services they need

and that's ultimately what's best for the people of Hong Kong

if all of their service sectors and big businesses all vanish and get put out of business, it will be because the free market has determined that some other party (maybe firms in Shanghai) are better at supplying those products to the people at better prices

to better supply Hong Kong and profit, Shanghai will have to operate business centres in Hong Kong

basically, there's nothing to worry. SOME conglomeration of big businesses will always run Hong Kong, the nationality doesn't concern me all that much

[Novus America]

No, because the large PRC businesses will stay in Shanghai while Hong Kong becomes a neglected second rate city. Shanghai will crush you like a bug.

Wake up, the West is increasingly turning against the PRC.
We have already started taking action.

Cheap labor and cheap products? We can get those anywhere.
We do not need them, as much as the greedy want them and we can get them from elsewhere.
Already factories in the PRC a closing down and relocating to Vietnam and Indonesia.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com ... bf8f989972

Western countries are increasingly looking to invest elsewhere.

I highly doubt this will happen but IF it does happen...

If Shanghai "crushes" Hong Kong like a bug, it will be because it is better at supplying (economically) the people of Hong Kong with the consumer goods and services they need

and that's ultimately what's best for the people of Hong Kong

if all of their service sectors and big businesses all vanish and get put out of business, it will be because the free market has determined that some other party (maybe firms in Shanghai) are better at supplying those products to the people at better prices

to better supply Hong Kong and profit, Shanghai will have to operate business centres in Hong Kong

basically, there's nothing to worry. SOME conglomeration of big businesses will always run Hong Kong, the nationality doesn't concern me all that much

Wow, you actually believe this?
Or are just playing sophistry?
Do you really believe this losing your job actually is good BS?

When you lose in a competition it sucks for the loser
The company going out of business does not benefit.
You think Detroit benefited from outside competition?

That is what happens when a city looses its special economic status.

Also free market?
You do realize in PRC firms are state subsidized right? The game is fixed.
Shanghai has the cheat codes.

And why would they have to run major business centers in Hong Kong?
They do not need to. They do not need a large corporate presence.

Sure Hong Kong will still be ruled by oligarchs, but not all oligarchs are equally bad.

But keep your delusions. Though in a few years you flee to somewhere else.
Singapore I guess, or maybe Hanoi, that is where Hong Kong’s business will go.

I admit you complete lack of ties and loyalty to any place allows you to switch sides easily.
And of course you will.

You have no loyalty to Hong Kong.

[Nea Byzantia]

I highly doubt this will happen but IF it does happen...

If Shanghai "crushes" Hong Kong like a bug, it will be because it is better at supplying (economically) the people of Hong Kong with the consumer goods and services they need

and that's ultimately what's best for the people of Hong Kong

if all of their service sectors and big businesses all vanish and get put out of business, it will be because the free market has determined that some other party (maybe firms in Shanghai) are better at supplying those products to the people at better prices

to better supply Hong Kong and profit, Shanghai will have to operate business centres in Hong Kong

basically, there's nothing to worry. SOME conglomeration of big businesses will always run Hong Kong, the nationality doesn't concern me all that much

Wow, you actually believe this?
Or are just playing sophistry?
Do you really believe this losing your job actually is good BS?

When you lose in a competition it sucks for the loser
The company going out of business does not benefit.
You think Detroit benefited from outside competition?

That is what happens when a city looses its special economic status.

Also free market?
You do realize in PRC firms are state subsidized right? The game is fixed.
Shanghai has the cheat codes.

And why would they have to run major business centers in Hong Kong?
They do not need to. They do not need a large corporate presence.

Sure Hong Kong will still be ruled by oligarchs, but not all oligarchs are equally bad.

But keep your delusions. Though in a few years you flee to somewhere else.
Singapore I guess, or maybe Hanoi, that is where Hong Kong’s business will go.

I admit you complete lack of ties and loyalty to any place allows you to switch sides easily.
And of course you will.

You have no loyalty to Hong Kong.

Today, Hong Kong, tomorrow Taiwan...Beijing will play this game all the day long...

Meanwhile, while everybody's watching Hong Kong; this stuff is still playing out in the background...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ch ... e5281374dc

https://qz.com/217597/how-a-million-chi ... in-africa/

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018 ... olonialism


This sums up Beijing's ambitions pretty well...

[Hammer Britannia]

Wow, you actually believe this?
Or are just playing sophistry?
Do you really believe this losing your job actually is good BS?

When you lose in a competition it sucks for the loser
The company going out of business does not benefit.
You think Detroit benefited from outside competition?

That is what happens when a city looses its special economic status.

Also free market?
You do realize in PRC firms are state subsidized right? The game is fixed.
Shanghai has the cheat codes.

And why would they have to run major business centers in Hong Kong?
They do not need to. They do not need a large corporate presence.

Sure Hong Kong will still be ruled by oligarchs, but not all oligarchs are equally bad.

But keep your delusions. Though in a few years you flee to somewhere else.
Singapore I guess, or maybe Hanoi, that is where Hong Kong’s business will go.

I admit you complete lack of ties and loyalty to any place allows you to switch sides easily.
And of course you will.

You have no loyalty to Hong Kong.

Today, Hong Kong, tomorrow Taiwan...Beijing will play this game all the day long...

Meanwhile, while everybody's watching Hong Kong; this stuff is still playing out in the background...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ch ... e5281374dc

https://qz.com/217597/how-a-million-chi ... in-africa/

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018 ... olonialism

Welcome to the new age, friend. In a couple of years, we will be seeing the continent of Africa divided between the natives and the totally independent country of Wěidàdexībù.

[Nea Byzantia]

Today, Hong Kong, tomorrow Taiwan...Beijing will play this game all the day long...

Meanwhile, while everybody's watching Hong Kong; this stuff is still playing out in the background...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ch ... e5281374dc

https://qz.com/217597/how-a-million-chi ... in-africa/

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018 ... olonialism

Welcome to the new age, friend. In a couple of years, we will be seeing the continent of Africa divided between the natives and the totally independent country of Wěidàdexībù.

It sure looks that way, and if China can keep the raw materials and natural resources flowing in, it can maintain its industrial economy, as for the One Belt One Road Initiative, it will allow Beijing to export its finished goods to the rest of Eurasia, and ultimately cut America out of World Trade. That's the goal, at least. If you see the map I posted above, you may also notice the central role played by Iran, in Beijing's schemes; as such, it adds another layer to all the American saber-rattling against Iran. Could America be hoping to cut off the One Belt One Road Initiative/ "New Silk Road" before it can cause them any harm?

[Hammer Britannia]

Welcome to the new age, friend. In a couple of years, we will be seeing the continent of Africa divided between the natives and the totally independent country of Wěidàdexībù.

It sure looks that way, and if China can keep the raw materials and natural resources flowing in, it can maintain its industrial economy, as for the One Belt One Road Initiative, it will allow Beijing to export its finished goods to the rest of Eurasia, and ultimately cut America out of World Trade. That's the goal, at least. If you see the map I posted above, you may also notice the central role played by Iran, in Beijing's schemes; as such, it adds another layer to all the American saber-rattling against Iran. Could America be hoping to cut off the One Belt One Road Initiative/ "New Silk Road" before it can cause them any harm?

Not really, China is just simply too powerful. So unless the US encourages literally everyone in the west to boycott China it ain't happening.

But that's really beside the point. The point is, China sucks and Hong Kong needs to defend its democracy and liberty.

[Nea Byzantia]

It sure looks that way, and if China can keep the raw materials and natural resources flowing in, it can maintain its industrial economy, as for the One Belt One Road Initiative, it will allow Beijing to export its finished goods to the rest of Eurasia, and ultimately cut America out of World Trade. That's the goal, at least. If you see the map I posted above, you may also notice the central role played by Iran, in Beijing's schemes; as such, it adds another layer to all the American saber-rattling against Iran. Could America be hoping to cut off the One Belt One Road Initiative/ "New Silk Road" before it can cause them any harm?

Not really, China is just simply too powerful. So unless the US encourages literally everyone in the west to boycott China it ain't happening.

But that's really beside the point. The point is, China sucks and Hong Kong needs to defend its democracy and liberty.

Yes, but what I'm trying to say is that its bigger than just Hong Kong. What we're seeing is a battle between the American and Russo-Chinese Powers, for who will have hegemony over the World.

[Hammer Britannia]

Not really, China is just simply too powerful. So unless the US encourages literally everyone in the west to boycott China it ain't happening.

But that's really beside the point. The point is, China sucks and Hong Kong needs to defend its democracy and liberty.

Yes, but what I'm trying to say is that its bigger than just Hong Kong. What we're seeing is a battle between the American and Russo-Chinese Powers, for who will have hegemony over the World.

Of course, I am just trying to keep the thread on-topic.

[Nea Byzantia]

Yes, but what I'm trying to say is that its bigger than just Hong Kong. What we're seeing is a battle between the American and Russo-Chinese Powers, for who will have hegemony over the World.

Of course, I am just trying to keep the thread on-topic.

Of course. I'll take this idea to the Iran vs USA Thread.

[Duhon]

And your prediction is completely wrong. It only has this because it has autonomy. As the PRC cracks down, capital will leave.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com ... e35ef678d2

Even what you want, as objectionable as we may find it, you will not get.
Oh you will get mainland PRC oppression. But not keep your economic status.

And large and big chinese businesses will move in

I see no problem

It doesn’t concern me what nationality the big businesses are run by

Local HK corporate lords are just as oligarchic

As for western companies and nations, they’ll continue to put business with China first as they always have (they need China’s cheap products and labour to keep domestic political promises indirectly; it’s all mutual backrubbing)

"Change Hong Kong into a normal Chinese city where people shut up, work, and get mummified in social credit, I don't care, I just wanna play Flyff."

[Duhon]

And large and big chinese businesses will move in

I see no problem

It doesn’t concern me what nationality the big businesses are run by

Local HK corporate lords are just as oligarchic

As for western companies and nations, they’ll continue to put business with China first as they always have (they need China’s cheap products and labour to keep domestic political promises indirectly; it’s all mutual backrubbing)

No, because the large PRC businesses will stay in Shanghai while Hong Kong becomes a neglected second rate city. Shanghai will crush you like a bug.

Wake up, the West is increasingly turning against the PRC.
We have already started taking action.

Cheap labor and cheap products? We can get those anywhere.
We do not need them, as much as the greedy want them and we can get them from elsewhere.
Already factories in the PRC a closing down and relocating to Vietnam and Indonesia.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com ... bf8f989972

Western countries are increasingly looking to invest elsewhere.

"Hong Kong declines in economic importance and people leave to breathe freer airs? Even better -- now no one will backsass Guanyin Huangdi. Can I play my Warcraft now?"

[Bombadil]

As I've said, HK will be subsumed into the megacity that is the Greater Bay Area.

On February 18, Chinese policymakers finally released the blueprint for the development of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area.

Much anticipated by real estate developers, industrialists, and investors alike, the Greater Bay Area (GBA) has already received plenty of attention for its ambition to transform nine mainland cities and two special administrative regions into a new Silicon Valley-type technology and innovation hub.

That integration would further prop China’s infrastructure and connectivity programs like the Belt and Road Initiative as well as strengthen the supply chain industry in higher-tech manufacturing and services.

Supporting the Greater Bay Area are three key infrastructure projects.

The first is the recently inaugurated Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, which opened in 2018 and significantly reduces travel times from Hong Kong to Zhuhai and Macau.

The second is the Express Rail Link, which also opened in 2018 and connects Hong Kong to Shenzhen and Guangdong, and subsequently to China’s vast high-speed rail network.

A third project, the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor, is expected to be completed in 2024. It will be an eight-lane highway and will reduce the travel time between Shenzhen and Zhongshan/Jiangmen by approximately 30 minutes.

Commenting on the value of these mega projects, Valeria Manunza, International Business Advisory Assistant Manager at Dezan Shira & Associates’ Guangzhou office, said, “this alignment of infrastructure development is the key to an integrated, efficient, modernized, and rapidly evolving Greater Bay Area”.

In time it won't be considered a standalone city at all.

From the preamble of the actual policy..

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (Greater Bay Area) consists of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), the Macao Special Administrative Region (Macao SAR) as well as the municipalities of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Foshan, Huizhou, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Jiangmen and Zhaoqing in Guangdong Province (hereinafter referred to as “the nine Pearl River Delta (PRD) municipalities”), covering a total area of 56 000 square kilometres with a combined population of approximately 70 million at the end of 2017. As one of the most open and economically vibrant regions in China, the Greater Bay Area plays a significant strategic role in the overall development of the country.

[Duhon]

And there would've been no problem with that, if China weren't, well, China.

[Bombadil]

And there would've no problem with that, if China weren't, well, China.

Hence the increase in desire to simply move away. It's the first time I've personally considered my longer term future.. of course the issue is where.

[Duhon]

And there would've no problem with that, if China weren't, well, China.

Hence the increase in desire to simply move away. It's the first time I've personally considered my longer term future.. of course the issue is where.

The Philippines always accepts hard workers!

[Galloism]

And there would've no problem with that, if China weren't, well, China.

Hence the increase in desire to simply move away. It's the first time I've personally considered my longer term future.. of course the issue is where.

You might like Texas.

[Hammer Britannia]

Hence the increase in desire to simply move away. It's the first time I've personally considered my longer term future.. of course the issue is where.

You might like Texas.

Not really.

Unless you're talking some small suburban community, I would suggest otherwise.

[Galloism]

You might like Texas.

Not really.

Unless you're talking some small suburban community, I would suggest otherwise.

Shhhh.

[Bombadil]

Hence the increase in desire to simply move away. It's the first time I've personally considered my longer term future.. of course the issue is where.

The Philippines always accepts hard workers!

I did have the idea of opening a scuba resort on Bohol.

You might like Texas.

A couple of years ago I was visiting some friends in Florida and I discovered Miami.. I could consider that, the problem with Texas is I really like living by the sea. I could probably visit Houston and see what it's like.