Hong Kong

[The South Falls]

With any luck they'll move up to things past that level. Rudimentary firearms are buildable in near any conditions and ammo, while sketchy, can also be scratch built. Force is the only thing the CCP understands, they're going to keep coming back and taking more and more from Hong Kong if people roll over after a day or two of protests.

Surely it would be easier to use Hong Kong's vast black markets to just purchase quality weapons and ammo.

Once the PLA starts, there will be no stopping.

[Washington Resistance Army]

With any luck they'll move up to things past that level. Rudimentary firearms are buildable in near any conditions and ammo, while sketchy, can also be scratch built. Force is the only thing the CCP understands, they're going to keep coming back and taking more and more from Hong Kong if people roll over after a day or two of protests.

They won't have the power of the PLA, though.

No insurgent group ever will match the power of a state force, and if your insurgents think they will they're coming at it all wrong. You're not going to meet them in the field for an honorable engagement. Shoot them on their way to work, burn their homes, carry out random sniper attacks (there's actually a whole book on this one called Fry the Brain, would highly recommend) etc etc. Mao was absolutely right that political power grows from the gun, more people need to take that lesson to heart.

With any luck they'll move up to things past that level. Rudimentary firearms are buildable in near any conditions and ammo, while sketchy, can also be scratch built. Force is the only thing the CCP understands, they're going to keep coming back and taking more and more from Hong Kong if people roll over after a day or two of protests.

Surely it would be easier to use Hong Kong's vast black markets to just purchase quality weapons and ammo.

I'm not sure it would be easier per se but it is also very possible to also do that.

[The South Falls]

They won't have the power of the PLA, though.

No insurgent group ever will match the power of a state force, and if your insurgents think they will they're coming at it all wrong. You're not going to meet them in the field for an honorable engagement. Shoot them on their way to work, burn their homes, carry out random sniper attacks (there's actually a whole book on this one called Fry the Brain, would highly recommend) etc etc. Mao was absolutely right that political power grows from the gun, more people need to take that lesson to heart.

Surely it would be easier to use Hong Kong's vast black markets to just purchase quality weapons and ammo.

I'm not sure it would be easier per se but it is also very possible to also do that.

A long-term insurgency is impossible to maintain, without entirely destroying hong kong and all of its prospects. Starting something like the troubles would be detrimental to hong kong. Who says China won't destroy all of hong kong with scorched earth tactics.

[Nea Byzantia]

They won't have the power of the PLA, though.

No insurgent group ever will match the power of a state force, and if your insurgents think they will they're coming at it all wrong. You're not going to meet them in the field for an honorable engagement. Shoot them on their way to work, burn their homes, carry out random sniper attacks (there's actually a whole book on this one called Fry the Brain, would highly recommend) etc etc. Mao was absolutely right that political power grows from the gun, more people need to take that lesson to heart.

Ironically enough, the People's Army started out as a guerrilla force.

[Washington Resistance Army]

No insurgent group ever will match the power of a state force, and if your insurgents think they will they're coming at it all wrong. You're not going to meet them in the field for an honorable engagement. Shoot them on their way to work, burn their homes, carry out random sniper attacks (there's actually a whole book on this one called Fry the Brain, would highly recommend) etc etc. Mao was absolutely right that political power grows from the gun, more people need to take that lesson to heart.



I'm not sure it would be easier per se but it is also very possible to also do that.

A long-term insurgency is impossible to maintain, without entirely destroying hong kong and all of its prospects. Starting something like the troubles would be detrimental to hong kong. Who says China won't destroy all of hong kong with scorched earth tactics.

The Communist Party functioned as an insurgency for decades. Nothing is impossible to maintain if you truly believe in the cause.

[Nea Byzantia]

A long-term insurgency is impossible to maintain, without entirely destroying hong kong and all of its prospects. Starting something like the troubles would be detrimental to hong kong. Who says China won't destroy all of hong kong with scorched earth tactics.

The Communist Party functioned as an insurgency for decades. Nothing is impossible to maintain if you truly believe in the cause.

Long March 2.0, when?

[Thermodolia]

..through the suppression of people's right to have a say in their own future.. sweet..

We shouldn’t throw the baby out with the bath water but support democratic socialism there, not bourgeois democracy.

Ya no. China isn’t even really socialist anymore

[The South Falls]

A long-term insurgency is impossible to maintain, without entirely destroying hong kong and all of its prospects. Starting something like the troubles would be detrimental to hong kong. Who says China won't destroy all of hong kong with scorched earth tactics.

The Communist Party functioned as an insurgency for decades. Nothing is impossible to maintain if you truly believe in the cause.

True, but in that situation they had more land, international support, more regional support, etc. That is true. Hong Kong really only has international support to compare with the CCP. And their initial numbers are incongruent. But holding out hope is a thing, Long march into the sea?

[Novus America]

..through the suppression of people's right to have a say in their own future.. sweet..

We shouldn’t throw the baby out with the bath water but support democratic socialism there, not bourgeois democracy.

The PRC is a Bourgeois Oligarchy. So supporting the PRC would be supporting a very oppressive Bourgeois regime.

[Novus America]

One of these things are not like the other

Not sure which. I mean, they all boil down to: "Help those who have done you no wrong and are in need and don't hate those that have done you no wrong."

The PRC has done plenty of wrong to me and my country.

If you want me to leave the PRC alone they need to leave me alone.
Cease all exports to the US. Cease all spying operations in the US.
Cease all lobbying and propaganda operations in the US.
Sell off all PRC owned property in the US.
Withdraw from illegally service seized territory belonging to US allies.
Stop dumping toxic waste into the air and waters of the Pacific Ocean (which drifts to the US).
Cease forced technology transfers and pay reparations for technology already seized.

Then maybe you might have a point.

[Rojava Free State]

No insurgent group ever will match the power of a state force, and if your insurgents think they will they're coming at it all wrong. You're not going to meet them in the field for an honorable engagement. Shoot them on their way to work, burn their homes, carry out random sniper attacks (there's actually a whole book on this one called Fry the Brain, would highly recommend) etc etc. Mao was absolutely right that political power grows from the gun, more people need to take that lesson to heart.



I'm not sure it would be easier per se but it is also very possible to also do that.

A long-term insurgency is impossible to maintain, without entirely destroying hong kong and all of its prospects. Starting something like the troubles would be detrimental to hong kong. Who says China won't destroy all of hong kong with scorched earth tactics.

I was about to mention the troubles. Part of the reason the IRA succeeded in stalmating with the brits during the troubles was due to the fact Britain didn't want to totally wreck all of Ireland beyond repair, whereas the Chinese would be waging a war of revenge and attrition If Hong Kong rebelled and would be more than willing to destroy the island and kill all of its inhabitants.

[-Ocelot-]

Realistically, what will happen to HK if it gets completely absorbed by China? How will it be affected in the long run?

I imagine that simplified Mandarin will be promoted over Cantonese but how will their society change otherwise? Will the Chinese state give the OK for buildings to be made in currently restricted areas, thus lowering HKs insane rents, for example? Who benefits more from this integration?

[Shatla]

Realistically, what will happen to HK if it gets completely absorbed by China? How will it be affected in the long run?

I imagine that simplified Mandarin will be promoted over Cantonese but how will their society change otherwise? Will the Chinese state give the OK for buildings to be made in currently restricted areas, thus lowering HKs insane rents, for example? Who benefits more from this integration?

Well decreased democracy, and the persucation of dissenters, along with the firewall getting put up in HK as well.

[Rojava Free State]

Realistically, what will happen to HK if it gets completely absorbed by China? How will it be affected in the long run?

I imagine that simplified Mandarin will be promoted over Cantonese but how will their society change otherwise? Will the Chinese state give the OK for buildings to be made in currently restricted areas, thus lowering HKs insane rents, for example? Who benefits more from this integration?

Well decreased democracy, and the persucation of dissenters, along with the firewall getting put up in HK as well.

Don't forget the social credit system. That'll be coming too

[Arcanda]

When I visited Hong Kong in 2014, sometime around the period of the Occupy Central movement, I actually had the opportunity to meet a member of the city council (former member? I don't remember) and I listened while she explained her view of Hong Kong's politics at the time and what she felt was the crux of the political debate in the city. It was clear that the freedoms which the Hong Kong government were concerned with were mostly economic, but in regards to civil liberties she had an outlook similar to the official line of Beijing or any politically-sensitive person from the Mainland. Hong Kong's freedoms were desirable, but they were in no way an endangered resource for Hong Kong, and attempts to bolster orderliness or the rule of law could never trigger a meaningful collision with Hong Kong freedom because that was not freedom in any sense which the government was concerned to preserve it. It was ultimately a Western standard of living, or life with Western trappings of lifestyle, which the main faction of the Hong Kong government felt was the essential 'separate system' of Hong Kong that they wanted to preserve. And this was years ago, in the last stage of a liberal ideological period worldwide driven by the influence of the United States under the Bush-Obama presidencies.

If you are only concerned with the quality of your life materially, I don't think that's easily reconciled with the principles of the classical Liberal philosophy embraced by democracy worldwide since the Independence of the United States. The freedom which Liberalism idealizes is about human dignity and a lofty, idealized view of the individual human being as an intellectual and moral superhero given special beneficent and humanitarian gifts by an omnipotently wise and dignified God. The technocratic view of the human being that Chinese culture uses as a sort of dirty animal whose impulses have to be chastened away and can rarely be lauded is very far off from the assumptions which support a Liberal view of the rights and duties of the individual and the government respectively. Only if the loyalist faction in Hong Kong saw the human being as some special creation with a divinely-inspired freedom and dignity would they care enough to sacrifice material possessions and an easy life to fight for their freedoms as part of preserving their dignity as people. Lacking that, the ideological ingredients for a powerful challenge to authoritarian rule may not even be in place. I hope the protesters will articulate a new, Chinese formula of Liberalism which offers a better and idealized view of the human being which challenges everyone in China to place more responsibility on themselves and believe that their natural nature as creatures is of a higher caliber than just worrying about family or money

I can't deny the power of philosophies and culture, and see what you mean in that an underlying cultural philosophy is needed to sustain a long-term democratic rebellion; yet history gives us plenty of examples where people that weren't imbued with Western Liberal views still rebelled. When authority is pushed too far, even the Chinese can rebel. There are a variety of factors to that and I don't think creating a new set of principles is needed for HK to sustain its fight. Many Asian countries have opted for "democracy with confucian characteristics".

A long-term insurgency is impossible to maintain, without entirely destroying hong kong and all of its prospects. Starting something like the troubles would be detrimental to hong kong. Who says China won't destroy all of hong kong with scorched earth tactics.

I was about to mention the troubles. Part of the reason the IRA succeeded in stalmating with the brits during the troubles was due to the fact Britain didn't want to totally wreck all of Ireland beyond repair, whereas the Chinese would be waging a war of revenge and attrition If Hong Kong rebelled and would be more than willing to destroy the island and kill all of its inhabitants.

Hong Kongers don't have the land, resources or numbers to pull this off. I also don't think many would be ready to take up arms given their current level of developement.

[Major-Tom]

Beijing will do whatever it takes to ensure that Hong Kong strays further and further away from it's devolved status and grows more intertwined with the Federal Government. I'm cautiously optimistic that the Pro-Democracy protests may yield some positive results, but given that they're fighting a bloated, totalitarian beast with a leader who lacks a moral compass, it'll be an uphill battle.

[Rojava Free State]

Beijing will do whatever it takes to ensure that Hong Kong strays further and further away from it's devolved status and grows more intertwined with the Federal Government. I'm cautiously optimistic that the Pro-Democracy protests may yield some positive results, but given that they're fighting a bloated, totalitarian beast with a leader who lacks a moral compass, it'll be an uphill battle.

This is ground control to major tom. Hong Kong is basically lost

[Saiwania]

The tariffs against China that Trump has enacted are working so far as hurting China goes, but it isn't enough to take the PRC down in any truly meaningful way. Only a multilateral agreement in my view, can really put the screws to China's economy enough to change their foreign policy and behavior. China's economy keeps humming along because most countries are still willing to accept exports and imports from them.

Imagine if all of the EU/NATO/ and other US aligned countries, along with China's neighbors all simultaneously agreed to place tariffs against China like the US has and stuck to this for over one or five years? What if instead of China, most manufacturing was gotten from India, Vietnam, or Taiwan instead?

If the developed world truly signed onto a plan to systematically take leverage away from China, I think perhaps China would be forced to cede claims to Taiwan, Senkaku Islands, you name it. And would have to enter into negotiations where they'll stop all of their ruthless misbehavior and bad dealings (like industrial espionage) to their benefit in exchange for the tariffs finally being lifted.

The world has stood by for too long doing nothing, as China just gets richer and more powerful. Any country that trades with China and purposely helps them become more powerful (such as Russia) should have the tariffs applied to them as well.

[Novus America]

The tariffs against China that Trump has enacted are working so far as hurting China goes, but it isn't enough to take the PRC down in any truly meaningful way. Only a multilateral agreement in my view, can really put the screws to China's economy enough to change their foreign policy and behavior. China's economy keeps humming along because most countries are still willing to accept exports and imports from them.

Imagine if all of the EU/NATO/ and other US aligned countries, along with China's neighbors all simultaneously agreed to place tariffs against China like the US has and stuck to this for over one or five years? What if instead of China, most manufacturing was gotten from India, Vietnam, or Taiwan instead?

If the developed world truly signed onto a plan to systematically take leverage away from China, I think perhaps China would be forced to cede claims to Taiwan, Senkaku Islands, you name it. And would have to enter into negotiations where they'll stop all of their ruthless misbehavior and bad dealings (like industrial espionage) to their benefit in exchange for the tariffs finally being lifted.

The world has stood by for too long doing nothing, as China just gets richer and more powerful. Any country that trades with China and purposely helps them become more powerful (such as Russia) should have the tariffs applied to them as well.

I might disagree with you on many things but damn, you are right on here.
Yes, absolutely. We need to do this yesterday.

[Tuthina]

Some local forums have been passing recipe for things like Molotov's cocktail, but none remains to be seen in use so far. For the most part, I don't think they're armed with anything more powerful than bricks, mobile phones, or bricked mobile phones.

With any luck they'll move up to things past that level. Rudimentary firearms are buildable in near any conditions and ammo, while sketchy, can also be scratch built. Force is the only thing the CCP understands, they're going to keep coming back and taking more and more from Hong Kong if people roll over after a day or two of protests.

I feel Hong Kong is way too urbanised and packed with people for armed insurgency like the Troubles to be replicated barring foreign intervention. Of course, there is the arguably greater issue that non-pro-establishment factions have yet to have a consensus on how much violence, if at all, should protesters have. The traditional pro-democratic camps, comprising mostly of existing political parties and arguably the biggest number of people on this side, traditionally opposes violence even when met with police violence. The stance of condemning violence in protests and demonstrations and the lack of progress in the city's political freedom throughout the decades, whether they're related or not, has been slowly eroding their support base, especially among the new generation, who are generally more receptive to the idea of fighting back, if not initiating the fighting itself. Arguably the more radical localist movement is supported primarily by these people, many of which is disillusioned by the traditional pan-dem camp, and has been slowly increasing its influence in protests that were once organised by said pan-dem camp. Still, the majority of protesters probably still adhere to some degree of non-violence principles, meaning that they would likely not support escalating, if not actually joining force with the government to condemn and root them out of their ranks.

[Bombadil]

Just as an update..

Hospital authorities told broadcaster RTHK that 72 people had been taken to hospital and two were in a serious condition. Pictures and videos on social media appeared to show people wounded by rubber bullets or bean-bag rounds, which police fired from shotguns.

However it seems the crowd has dissipated, the area is somewhat closed off.. kind of a pain in that Admiralty is quite a transport hub and no trains are stopping there for the moment.

I don't think anyone has any idea what happens next.

[Hammer Britannia]

Just as an update..

Hospital authorities told broadcaster RTHK that 72 people had been taken to hospital and two were in a serious condition. Pictures and videos on social media appeared to show people wounded by rubber bullets or bean-bag rounds, which police fired from shotguns.

However it seems the crowd has dissipated, the area is somewhat closed off.. kind of a pain in that Admiralty is quite a transport hub and no trains are stopping there for the moment.

I don't think anyone has any idea what happens next.

WW3

[Duhon]

In which ways is it "fine"? Be specific.

people are not disappearing off the streets in large numbers

there are no concentration camps

people can go to work and come home, there is a bright economic future for the place, its a center of commerce

there is relative security in the streets

no one living there organically would go... "Oh wow this place is a totalitarian hellhole" unless they intentionally went about trying to cross lines; in other words, nothing like a random Stalinist purge would occur (but if you went looking for one by stirring up trouble, then that's something else)

In other words, as long as you do as you are told, believe what you are told, do nothing else, eat bread, enjoy circuses, incessantly praise public figures, question nothing, toady yourself heart and soul, and generally take Xi up the ass, life in Shanghai (as well as in other prosperous Chinese cities and an almost-certainly broken post-2047 Hong Kong) is tolerable.

That might work for some seriously unreflective people, as well as understandably fearful individuals.

But what happens if you have a complaint? What happens if you touch on a taboo topic? What happens if you show signs of being less than totally receptive to Xi's thousand and one thoughts?

Then you're fucked.

If you say anything, the authorities won't be there to help you because to them your complaint marks you as a misanthrope, not as a... you know... someone seeking help. Your activities are monitored 24/7, your communications scrutinized for the slightest bit of uneasiness, discomfort, deviation, rebellion, criminality, liquidation.

What then? You clam up -- but your complaint remains, and so is any problem you see.

What then? Nowhere to turn, nowhere to confide, till the kettle explodes and you're consumed.

And you say that's "fine"? How seriously unreflective must you be to want that shit for yourself?

[Bear Stearns]

Expect to see massive capital flights from Hong Kong, followed by the Hong Kongers themselves.

[Farnhamia]

Expect to see massive capital flights from Hong Kong, followed by the Hong Kongers themselves.

There's 7.4 million Hong Kongers, where they gonna go?