After the Video, A Vote(An Austrian Election Thread)

[Duhon]

We now have an official date, the vote will be on Sunday, September 29. And if the polls are anything to go by, there may well be an ÖVP Majority Government.

And still the ÖVP despite everything that's gone down. Austrians have to know that if Strache was in deep with Russians offering him visions of Orban's Hungary, it's at least a distinct possibility Kurz is in on it too?

[Shrillland]

We now have an official date, the vote will be on Sunday, September 29. And if the polls are anything to go by, there may well be an ÖVP Majority Government.

And still the ÖVP despite everything that's gone down. Austrians have to know that if Strache was in deep with Russians offering him visions of Orban's Hungary, it's at least a distinct possibility Kurz is in on it too?

Possible, but not likely. The way the video was set up, it seemed to be targeting Strache and FPÖ' specifically since they were doing well enough before this that they could've lead the government after '21 or '22. Kurz and most of the ÖVP were, by most accounts, just as disgusted as everyone else. Despite all the auspicious signs, Kurz is fighting too, the 29th date was Rendl-Wagner and Hofer's ideas, Kurz wanted a vote on the 8th, or failing that, the 22nd to coincide with the Vorarlberg State Election.

[Shrillland]

The vote is now only two months away, and polls are showing that FPÖ may have bottomed out with a recent slight increase in support. They're still down at 19%, which will be a big drop in seats if the trend continues. Meanwhile the Greens continue rising on their return to the Nationalrat with 11% and the ÖVP continues to lead over all with a commanding 37% average. This will translate to about 75 seats, so they only need a coalition with NEOS or the Greens or both to get the next government. Also, we're close enough that I can start posting the news updates.

[Shrillland]

Now that we're within two months, here's some of the latest news from the campaign trail.

The FPÖ has released excerpts of a report dealing with its predecessor organisation's history during the "Brown Years", what many Austrians call the WW2 period: https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107080066/fpoe-legt-ihre-geschichte-vor-teilweise

Supposedly, they're quite desperate to get an Israeli historian to sign it, but they're a bit hard to come by for obvious reasons.

Despite ÖVP's poll dominance, SPÖ leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner is the top encountered party leader on social media according to Facebook: https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107068185/rendi-wagner-ueberholt-kurz-in-sozialen-medien

FPÖ is also pushing to have Austria's public smoking ban repealed if they return to the government according to Niederosterreich Party Leader Udo Landbauer: https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107032747/landbauer-will-bei-fpoe-regierungsbeteiligung-rauchverbot-kippen

And ÖVP has shot that proposal down: https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5669809/Rauchverbot_OeVP-schliesst-erneute-Aufhebung-aus

And FPÖ and ÖVP have both released their lists for the September vote, SPÖ will do the same soon: https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107070852/hofer-und-kickl-an-der-spitze-der-fpoe-bundesliste
https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107045168/fast-nur-bekannte-namen-hinter-sebastian-kurz-auf-der-bundesliste

[Shrillland]

Sorry I missed my updates earlier this week, here's some of the latest from the trail:

The Ibiza investigation is now starting to show a potential link between the video and the "Shredder affair", where five hard disks worth on information from the Federal Chancellery were destroyed, after NEOS asked the special prosecutor if there was a link: https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107445017/oevp-empoert-ueber-ermittlungen-zu-ibiza-und-festplattenbroesel

The SPO leader for Tyrol is saying he wants a black-red government: https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107432502/tirols-spoe-chef-will-tuerkis-rote-bundesregierung

And the party lists have been finalised, eight parties with 1,476 candidates altogether: https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107425365/acht-bundeswahlvorschlaege-mit-1-476-kandidaten-fuer-nationalratswahl-genehmigt

[Shrillland]

Now for the latest news(sorry I've been running late):

Beirlein has now said that the destruction of hard disks in the "shredder affair" was legal and legitimate since short-term internal memory is not covered under the Federal Archives Act and is required to be destroyed for security reasons: https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107814910/schreddern-loeschung-unter-kurz-und-kern-laut-kanzleramt-legitim

SPÖ's leader in Tyrol is under fire for granting an interview to Info-Direkt Magazine, which has been known to skirt Austria's Anti-Nazi laws, and former Chancellor Kurz also answered three questions from them in the same edition: https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107802067/tiroler-spoe-chef-dornauer-gibt-rechtsextremem-magazin-interview

And a Der Standard poll gives us an idea of what a new government would look like based on what people think of the Greens. https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000107559185/umfrage-die-gruenen-sind-vor-allem-umweltpartei

64% say that the Greens should focus more on environmental protection than economic or foreign issues, 36% say that the Nationalrat would look worse without them, and 38% want them in the government. Greens and SPÖ supporters are most likely to support including them in a coalition while ÖVP and FPÖ supporters are opposed. NEOS is more or less neutral.

Speaking of the Greens, they've issued their 82-page manifesto today: https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5679592/Rigoros-verpennt_Gruene-werben-mit-Klimakassasturz

And NEOS is proposing a Canadian-style immigration system complete with points: https://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/5679593/Neos-werben-fuer-Zuwanderung-nach-Punktesystem

[Shrillland]

With just 24 days to go, here's the latest:

There has been a massive hacking of ÖVP's computers earlier this week, leading to confidential data concerning donor being releasedhttps://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5685216/Im-Netzwerk-der-OeVP

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108291858/hackerangriff-auf-oevp-brisante-leaks-und-geschickte-manipulation

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108265948/oevp-ortet-gross-angelegten-hackerangriff-auf-parteizentrale?ref=rec

Supposedly, the hackers had free roam for five weeks before being discovered on Tuesday evening.

[Shrillland]

In the latest updates:

Hofer has officially become FPÖ's leader after their party met at Linz: https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108637942/hofer-mit-98-25-prozent-zum-fpoe-parteichef-gewaehlt

Polls still have ÖVP getting 66-71 seats: https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/nationalratswahl/5689826/Umfragen_Leichter-Rueckgang-fuer-OeVP-Platz-zwei-weiter-umkaempft

NEOS and SPÖ have issued their manifestos, NEOS is calling for an income-neutral climate tax and separate climate budgets: https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/nationalratswahl/5689270/Neos-wollen-oekologische-Steuerrevolution-anstossen

SPÖ, meanwhile, amongst their many proposals in their 160-page behemoth, is calling for a wealth tax and a lorry toll based on kilometres driven: https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/nationalratswahl/5689225/Liebe-Freude-Hoffnung_SPOe-stellt-Wahlprogramm-vor

[Shrillland]

With less than a week to go, here's the last updates:

Der Standard is discussing the last debate between Kurz, Hofer, and Rendl-Wagner before Sunday's big vote: https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108998099/puls-4-duelle-harmoniesuche-vor-der-kamera-um-waehler-abspenstig

Strache, the former FPÖ leader, is now being investigated for miscalculating the party's funds: https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108984421/ibiza-hintermaenner-belasten-strache-mit-neuem-material-zu-spesenabrechnung

While announcing ÖVP's security platform, Kurz has said that Austria has brought in more than enough people: https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108989311/im-finish-liefert-kurz-noch-ein-paar-wortspenden-zur-migration

Most of his plan is simple enough, more police, more cyber-security(after the hacks two weeks ago, they're probably more focused on that), increased cooperation in PESCO(the EU's common armaments programme), and other such things.

Meinl-Reisinger is casting NEOS as the alternative to a revived Black-Blue coalition: https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/nationalratswahl/5691725/Beate-MeinlReisinger_Alternative-zu-TuerkisBlau-moeglich-machen

Grüne is now presenting their seven-point programme for combating climate change: https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/nationalratswahl/5694533/Gruene-wollen-das-Gute-entlasten-und-das-Boese-belasten

Now for my projection. Despite seeming like they would just continue to drop, FPÖ has stabilised. Despite what many are thinking, I don't think a Black-and-Blue or Turquoise-and-Blue coalition as it's called is likely. Nonetheless, Black will be the first colour as ÖVP will get a respectable 70-73 seats on Sunday. With NEOS remaining stagnant at an 8% average translating to 15 or so seats, it won't be enough to form a government. I think the most likely coalition will be Black-Green, ÖVP-Grüne. They'll have a combined total of about 92-96, just enough to get over the top.

[Forumland]

I think the most likely coalition will be Black-Green, ÖVP-Grüne. They'll have a combined total of about 92-96, just enough to get over the top.

I can’t see this happening. There is no poll that shows ÖVP+Grüne with a majority and even if that did happen the coalition would be political suicide for the Greens.

My hot take would be that the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition is renewed

[Kowani]

With just 24 days to go, here's the latest:

There has been a massive hacking of ÖVP's computers earlier this week, leading to confidential data concerning donor being releasedhttps://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5685216/Im-Netzwerk-der-OeVP

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108291858/hackerangriff-auf-oevp-brisante-leaks-und-geschickte-manipulation

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000108265948/oevp-ortet-gross-angelegten-hackerangriff-auf-parteizentrale?ref=rec

Supposedly, the hackers had free roam for five weeks before being discovered on Tuesday evening.

5 weeks? Someone from the Equifax hack got a new job.

[Shrillland]

I think the most likely coalition will be Black-Green, ÖVP-Grüne. They'll have a combined total of about 92-96, just enough to get over the top.

I can’t see this happening. There is no poll that shows ÖVP+Grüne with a majority and even if that did happen the coalition would be political suicide for the Greens.

My hot take would be that the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition is renewed

It would be a mistake on Kurz's part to do that, he dropped them because of the whole Ibiza mess, and that still hasn't been concluded.

[Shrillland]

Today's the big day, so if there are any Austrians, go vote!

Final polls close at:
17:00 CEST
16:00 BST
11:00 EDT

[Shrillland]

Here are the exit polls and expected totals:

ÖVP: 36.8% (70) +8
SPÖ: 22% (42) -10
FPÖ: 16.1% (30) -21
Grüne: 14.2% (27) +27
NEOS: 7.6% (14) +4

I think it'll be an ÖVP-Grüne government as I said before.

[Veceria]

It's going to be ÖVP+someone else again because people here still think Kurz is their lord and saviour. We just don't learn from past mistakes.

[Forumland]

Link to the election results. I believe everything is counted except for the postal votes.

ÖVP 73 (+11)
SPÖ 41 (-11)
FPÖ 32 (-19)
Grüne 23 (+23)
NEOS 14 (+4)
PILZ 0 (-8)

I was going to argue that ÖVP-FPÖ were closely aligned and that more ÖVP voters prefer the FPÖ as coalition partners, but then they consigned themselves to opposition.

Hahahahahahahaha i’m Done

[Duhon]

So apparently FPÖ winds up getting more entrenched, Kurz retains, and apparently he's now a goddamned "centrist", as per The fucking Economist.

Ughhhhhhh

[Nakena]

I hope Kurz will be able to form a coalition with the SPÖ.

[Veceria]

I hope Kurz will be able to form a coalition with the SPÖ.

That or the Greens would at least make his personality somewhat more bearable.

[Nakena]

I hope Kurz will be able to form a coalition with the SPÖ.

That or the Greens would at least make his personality somewhat more bearable.

Ohh he's the perfect son-in-law and sooo handsome!

[Major-Tom]

I hope Kurz will be able to form a coalition with the SPÖ.

There has been a ton of speculation that Kurz will form a coalition with Grune, or with both Grune and NEOS. He likely isn't keen on a grand coalition, nor would he want to revisit the shitshow that ensued last time he got too close to the FPO.

[Forumland]

The SPÖ is willing to enter negotiations with the ÖVP while the FPÖ has prepared for opposition, though Hofer is willing to negotiate with Kurz if talks have stalled.

The Greens have said that Kurz has to “do more” before they’d consider a coalition (obviously on climate), and NEOS would like to join an ÖVP coalition but are currently irrelevant in terms of gaining a majority.

the FPÖ is also busy purging the Straches...

[Forumland]

Exploratory talks between the ÖVP and Grüne parties are ongoing, and Kurz will choose a coalition partner on November 8.

https://orf.at/stories/3142737/

Wolfgang Zanger, an FPÖ member of Parliament, owned a Nazi songbook given to him as a gift by a fraternity. All other parties demanded his resignation while the FPÖ has defended him, maintaining that the songbook does not represent his views.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/heil-h ... /400662911
https://orf.at/stories/3142966

[Shrillland]

Exploratory talks between the ÖVP and Grüne parties are ongoing, and Kurz will choose a coalition partner on November 8.

https://orf.at/stories/3142737/

Wolfgang Zanger, an FPÖ member of Parliament, owned a Nazi songbook given to him as a gift by a fraternity. All other parties demanded his resignation while the FPÖ has defended him, maintaining that the songbook does not represent his views.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/heil-h ... /400662911
https://orf.at/stories/3142966

Well, it makes sense if he chooses a Blue-Green coalition, FPÖ's an embarrassment while SPÖ's just kind of there without any interest in working with Kurz.

As for the other....this is the FPÖ, who was founded by an ex-Nazi lest we all forget...yeah, he should leave the Nationalrat.