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by Rio Cana » Mon May 20, 2019 5:31 pm
by Vetalia » Mon May 20, 2019 5:38 pm
by Aclion » Mon May 20, 2019 5:39 pm
by Thuzbekistan » Mon May 20, 2019 5:39 pm
by Scomagia » Mon May 20, 2019 5:46 pm
by Badb Catha » Mon May 20, 2019 6:29 pm
by Aureumterra » Mon May 20, 2019 6:32 pm
by Saiwania » Mon May 20, 2019 8:41 pm
Vetalia wrote:A US-Iran War would be a catastrophe never before seen in American military history. It would be like invading mainland Japan in 1945 in terms of ferocity of opposition combined with unlimited aid from Russia and China. Just compare the populations of Iran and Iraq and the geography to get an idea of what would happen.
by Infected Mushroom » Mon May 20, 2019 8:57 pm
by North German Realm » Mon May 20, 2019 9:39 pm
5 Nov, 2020
Die Morgenpost: "We will reconsider our relationship with Poland" Reichskanzler Lagenmauer says after Polish president protested North German ultimatum that made them restore reproductive freedom. | European Society votes not to persecute Hungary for atrocities committed against Serbs, "Giving a rogue state leave to commit genocide as it sees fit." North German delegate bemoans. | Negotiations still underway in Rome, delegates arguing over the extent of indemnities Turkey might be made to pay, lawful status of Turkish collaborators during occupation of Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Syria.
by Spodehaven » Mon May 20, 2019 9:42 pm
Saiwania wrote:Vetalia wrote:A US-Iran War would be a catastrophe never before seen in American military history. It would be like invading mainland Japan in 1945 in terms of ferocity of opposition combined with unlimited aid from Russia and China. Just compare the populations of Iran and Iraq and the geography to get an idea of what would happen.
Japan in 1945 was more bark than bite, the country was starving and rapidly running out of raw materials for small arms ammunition and industrial capabilities because Japan's infrastructure was completely wrecked. Like in Germany, they could only muster the equivalent of Volksturm for defense of the home islands. Their best army was routed in China by the Red Army and the Kuriles were quickly lost, with a ton of their military isolated throughout the Pacific with all of their supply lines cut.
Japan's geography was favorable for an insurgency if well armed enough but given their situation, I don't expect for anything that could be cobbled together to be all that effective. It'd be a repeat of the Okinawa campaign at best, where once the main line of defense was broken, the rest would have to retreat or capitulate because the best remaining units and resources were all used up or destroyed and no longer available for the field of battle.
An insurgency won't automatically win in that it needs outside support. People will run away or bide their time if the situation is too hopeless to salvage. North Korea and Vietnam at least had the benefit of Soviet and Chinese equipment and weaponry regularly going to them.
Iran's military is in far better shape, we can look to their performance against Iraq in the 1980s and apply any technological or economic progress Iran has made since then, to get a rough idea of what conflict with them will look like. What we know is that the US Navy easily wrecked Iran's during Operation Praying Mantis and some other minor engagements.
by The Greater Ohio Valley » Mon May 20, 2019 11:27 pm
by Neanderthaland » Mon May 20, 2019 11:31 pm
The Greater Ohio Valley wrote:In terms of foreign policy, a war with Iran is probably the worst decision the Trump administration could possibly considering going through with.
by Zhivotnoye » Tue May 21, 2019 4:33 am
Aureumterra wrote:Zhivotnoye wrote:
*source: dude trust me*
Sure did seem like most people liked the Shah better
by MeinKrafft » Tue May 21, 2019 4:39 am
Upper Saust Latiegebestica wrote:Thermodolia wrote:And?
there is no genocide in Israel, rather, the Palestinians want to exterminate the Jews. In fact, they were openly supported by Hitler
https://www.ushmm.org/research/publicat ... -palestine
by Diopolis » Tue May 21, 2019 6:27 am
Rio Cana wrote:Wonder if a US - Iran war would set off a larger regional war. Russia does not want the US near Russian areas of influence. Then there is the fact that historically, Iran is the balance to Turkey. With Iran out of the picture would Turkey get brazen and invade Armenia which has important economic ties to Iran. Of course, this would set off the Russians. Would Azerbaijan, Turkeys ally, then invade the republic of Nagorno Karabakh.
Map of the region - https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/b/mapa-de ... 510235.jpg
by Ostroeuropa » Tue May 21, 2019 6:34 am
by Diopolis » Tue May 21, 2019 6:35 am
Ostroeuropa wrote:A war with Iran can be won, it depends on the goals of the war and the amount of men and material we're prepared to expend.
Topple the government and GTFO?
Easily done, especially in cooperation with a grassroots uprising.
Fuck shit up and GTFO?
Even simpler.
Occupy the place and purge resistance?
...
Doable. Provided our will doesn't break after seeing boatloads of coffins return home.
by Gormwood » Tue May 21, 2019 6:38 am
by Zhivotnoye » Tue May 21, 2019 6:56 am
North German Realm wrote:A few points of Order.
1- Iran lacks a viable navy. Its main forces in the sea are kamikazi motorboats. They lack an actual, working navy with the large ships one assumes a navy should have. Given the type of defenses an aircraft carrier normally has, taking Hormuz and then the Persian Gulf isn't going to be hard.
2- A War with Iran doesn't need to be land-based. Hell, to make it more accurately it needs not to be land-based. Any land-based warfare in a country with as diverse a climate as Iran would be a doozy and -inevitably- costly like hell. On the other hand, the country's infrastructure is crumbling. Both military and civilian. There are more deaths by traffic accidents in the country than the number of casualties in Iraq, just to give you guys a hint. Military bases, a few exceptions aside, are firmly outside civilian zones, their defensive systems are so wack the last time they tried to hit something from home, the missiles fell onto a few border cities in Kermanshah. The myth that Iran's military is something impressive is just that. A myth.
3- Russia has shown time and time again this last 3 years that when push comes to shove, it won't back Iran. It hasn't backed Iran in Syria (where Israel keeps bombing their paramilitary stations), it hasn't backed Iran in Iraq (where the new president pretty much threw out all of the Iranian "advisers"). It hasn't backed Iran when it took over most of the rights to Khazar in a honestly-terrifyingly-similar way to how the Brits and Russians used to get concessions from the Qajar dynasty. If the US doesn't fuck this up? Russia (and friends) won't intervene.
4- The Iranian State is extremely unpopular now. It has been just unpopular throughout the last 12 years, except for a short period of two years after Rouhani got elected the first time. The Workers haven't been getting paid for more than 2 years now, there are strikes and protests happening everywhere. Some of them are pro-monarchy, some of them are republican, some of them are labor oriented. Everyone in the country has a reason to hate the government, including the fundamentalist Muslims; scratch that, especially the fundies.
by Diopolis » Tue May 21, 2019 7:09 am
Zhivotnoye wrote:North German Realm wrote:A few points of Order.
1- Iran lacks a viable navy. Its main forces in the sea are kamikazi motorboats. They lack an actual, working navy with the large ships one assumes a navy should have. Given the type of defenses an aircraft carrier normally has, taking Hormuz and then the Persian Gulf isn't going to be hard.
2- A War with Iran doesn't need to be land-based. Hell, to make it more accurately it needs not to be land-based. Any land-based warfare in a country with as diverse a climate as Iran would be a doozy and -inevitably- costly like hell. On the other hand, the country's infrastructure is crumbling. Both military and civilian. There are more deaths by traffic accidents in the country than the number of casualties in Iraq, just to give you guys a hint. Military bases, a few exceptions aside, are firmly outside civilian zones, their defensive systems are so wack the last time they tried to hit something from home, the missiles fell onto a few border cities in Kermanshah. The myth that Iran's military is something impressive is just that. A myth.
3- Russia has shown time and time again this last 3 years that when push comes to shove, it won't back Iran. It hasn't backed Iran in Syria (where Israel keeps bombing their paramilitary stations), it hasn't backed Iran in Iraq (where the new president pretty much threw out all of the Iranian "advisers"). It hasn't backed Iran when it took over most of the rights to Khazar in a honestly-terrifyingly-similar way to how the Brits and Russians used to get concessions from the Qajar dynasty. If the US doesn't fuck this up? Russia (and friends) won't intervene.
4- The Iranian State is extremely unpopular now. It has been just unpopular throughout the last 12 years, except for a short period of two years after Rouhani got elected the first time. The Workers haven't been getting paid for more than 2 years now, there are strikes and protests happening everywhere. Some of them are pro-monarchy, some of them are republican, some of them are labor oriented. Everyone in the country has a reason to hate the government, including the fundamentalist Muslims; scratch that, especially the fundies.
A few corrections:
1- Millennium Challenge 2002 begs to differ.
2- It in fact does have to be land-based if you want it to be a success for the U.S. Enough of Iran's military and Nuclear facilities are dug in deep underground.
Iran's defensive system are not as 'wack' as you claim. In 2017 it launched six missiles towars Syria, targeting Daesh with some degree of success. Nobody claims Iran's military to be 'impressive', though it's without a doubt capable of dealing some serious damage to whoever attacks it.
3- I'm not sure anyone ever claimed that Russia would come to Irans aid, or at least nobody who knows the diplomatic theatre. At most Russia will provide arms and intel to Iran, but it won't go any further than that. More dangerous are the many militias around that region who, without a doubt, will join the war in support of Iran.
4- The popularity of the Iranian state, and what 'popularity' implies are very much up for debate. Nonetheless, the state not enjoying popular support does not magically mean that a foreign invader would get that support.
by Novus America » Tue May 21, 2019 7:17 am
North German Realm wrote:A few points of Order.
1- Iran lacks a viable navy. Its main forces in the sea are kamikazi motorboats. They lack an actual, working navy with the large ships one assumes a navy should have. Given the type of defenses an aircraft carrier normally has, taking Hormuz and then the Persian Gulf isn't going to be hard.
2- A War with Iran doesn't need to be land-based. Hell, to make it more accurately it needs not to be land-based. Any land-based warfare in a country with as diverse a climate as Iran would be a doozy and -inevitably- costly like hell. On the other hand, the country's infrastructure is crumbling. Both military and civilian. There are more deaths by traffic accidents in the country than the number of casualties in Iraq, just to give you guys a hint. Military bases, a few exceptions aside, are firmly outside civilian zones, their defensive systems are so wack the last time they tried to hit something from home, the missiles fell onto a few border cities in Kermanshah. The myth that Iran's military is something impressive is just that. A myth.
3- Russia has shown time and time again this last 3 years that when push comes to shove, it won't back Iran. It hasn't backed Iran in Syria (where Israel keeps bombing their paramilitary stations), it hasn't backed Iran in Iraq (where the new president pretty much threw out all of the Iranian "advisers"). It hasn't backed Iran when it took over most of the rights to Khazar in a honestly-terrifyingly-similar way to how the Brits and Russians used to get concessions from the Qajar dynasty. If the US doesn't fuck this up? Russia (and friends) won't intervene.
4- The Iranian State is extremely unpopular now. It has been just unpopular throughout the last 12 years, except for a short period of two years after Rouhani got elected the first time. The Workers haven't been getting paid for more than 2 years now, there are strikes and protests happening everywhere. Some of them are pro-monarchy, some of them are republican, some of them are labor oriented. Everyone in the country has a reason to hate the government, including the fundamentalist Muslims; scratch that, especially the fundies.
by Infected Mushroom » Tue May 21, 2019 7:25 am
Ostroeuropa wrote:A war with Iran can be won, it depends on the goals of the war and the amount of men and material we're prepared to expend.
Topple the government and GTFO?
Easily done, especially in cooperation with a grassroots uprising.
Fuck shit up and GTFO?
Even simpler.
Occupy the place and purge resistance?
...
Doable. Provided our will doesn't break after seeing boatloads of coffins return home.
Iran is not in a position to mount a defense against anything except an occupation and they know it, so they've put all their eggs into making occupation as bloody and difficult as possible.
A limited war with naval bombardment, air superiority, and occupation of only coastal towns and cities would be the most effective bang for buck kind of war, but if Iran refuses to capitulate and continues to fight from the hills and mountains then that occupation could last decades. Actually going in to the hills and mountains to root them out? That's where the coffins start coming home.
It'd doable in technical terms, just not political ones.
It will also radicalize the populace and the region, and especially radicalize the mountain regions if we resort to bombardments and starving the fighters out, since fighters eat before civilians do.
by Gormwood » Tue May 21, 2019 7:29 am
by Arcturus Novus » Tue May 21, 2019 7:34 am
Nilokeras wrote:there is of course an interesting thread to pull on [...]
Unfortunately we're all forced to participate in whatever baroque humiliation kink the OP has going on instead.
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