Ngelmish wrote:Sidesh0w B0b wrote:
The argument for Joe begins with polls showing he's got the best chances for winning in the Electoral College. That coupled with the prevalent opinion of our current POTUS, Donald Trump. He is an existential threat to our republic, which is the United States. Trump is a divider. And that's just for starters. But I don't need to write a book on Trump at this point. We all know.
It's not prudent in 2020 to nominate any of these lesser known candidate. Some with only a couple years in congress, some relatively unknown governor, some mayor. We should also avoid nominating the 2020 versions of McGovern, Dukakis, Kerry and HRC. Note: I am not including Mondale in this comparison bc he was the Veep of a defeated POTUS and running against Ronald Reagan. Trump is certainly no Reagan. As for Gore, he probably won but the recount was stopped.
With the ^above considered, IMHO the field is pretty much whittled down to Bernie and Joe. I'd like to add Warren, however despite her age she's still relatively a newcomer has the disadvantage of being the senator from Massachusetts. MA is going to the Dems. Klobuchar does have extensive experience and a record of accomplishments with some mid-west state appeal. Unfortunately, she's not catching on at all, maybe because she's never run nationally. The rest of them have any number of problems such as not nationally well known, a lack of charisma, one term in congress or even less just to name a few...
But the most detrimental aspect of almost all of these other candidates is their inability to win key states in this election against Donald Trump. Trump runs with the advantage of incumbency and a sizable war chest of $$$. Dems need the candidate who can blunt that incumbency by having held high office themselves. Biden has that on his resume as a recent former 2 term V-POTUS. He is also a native of a state crucial in the 2020 general, PA. Bernie doesn't quite have all these extras in his quiver. And his socialist positions may be too polarizing in this particular political environment. With so much at stake, I'd prefer Biden.
Clearly to many, Biden is the Dem nominee which Republicans and Trump most fear to face. I say let them face him. The others save for Bernie are young enough to run again. The average age of a newly ascended POTUS is 55+. One of these other candidates with the ability to add votes in a competitive state or in a certain demographic group could well end up on the ticket as veep. That would give them a major leg up in 2024 or 2028. But beyond any other future considerations, we must defeat Donald Trump in November 2020. So, Joe Biden is our best shot, which explains his large lead in polls since his announcement.
The single most measurable quantity of your case for Joe Biden is that the combination of universal name recognition and the fact that he's been on national tickets before means he can win key states and that somehow none of the lesser knowns can -- but it's less cut and dried than you're presenting it. The most recent two Democratic presidents were broadly unknown to the country at large when they ran. Granted you can put an asterisk next to Gore, nationally well known Democratic nominees haven't won a competitive election against an incumbent president since... Grover Cleveland. Every other criteria that you glancingly mention (length of service, charisma, supposed regional appeal) are actually essentially random when it comes to a candidate's ability to win a general election or not
Although I almost certainly won't vote for Biden in a primary, I'm not opposed to him running and winning if he wins it. But your case for him so far boils down to, "No, Joe!" because, theoretically, none of the other putative candidates can win. That's an assertion that may be right or wrong, but it's not provable in the sense that you're pushing it.
Now I didn't say these other candidates couldn't win. I said they are less likely and that is based on all the state polls since Biden announced. Also in demographic polling National polls aren't very relevant in a fifty state election other than demographic info. Biden is about even with Trump among white men. That's something. He's beating Trump with all other groups.
It's more cut and dried with Biden than the others. You also over simplify on your own behalf as well. To be sure this isn't an election cycle comparable to 2008, no incumbent Bush 43 at 30% favorable. As for 1992, a Dem hadn't been in office in 12 years. Anybody nominated was literally going to be a Hail Mary. And there was the Perot candidacy.
Speaking of Bush 41, no sitting Veep had ever won election as POTUS until he did it in 1988. But listen, these too are arbitrary points in light of the current electoral map the Dems face after those 2016 results. They can't afford a weak candidate in the rust belt. We need the candidate that can nail it there.
Grover Cleveland, huh? lmao. Hey Ma, where's Pa? He's in the White House, ha ha ha.
