2019-2020 US Election Megathread II: Tim Ryan's Empire

[South Odreria]

lol remember when everyone thought Beto was gonna be the next big thing

Still hope Beto reconsiders another run for Texan seat in the US Senate. Polls show Cornyn's seat could be vulnerable.

Beto would not be the best Senate candidate by a long shot. Joaquin Castro or MJ Hegar has a better chance of winning. His political career is likely over unless someone shows mercy to him with a VP slot.

Unless the first debate is treated like the kids table and ignored. Any impact she has to make will only last about 20 hours before the big showdown between the other front runners happens. Though all she has to do is not fall on her face, I don't know that anyone will be all that aggressive against her since getting her to gaff won't help them, they need to be alternatives to the top five, not just get one to falter. They'll be trying to stand out instead of attack I'd imagine.

I'm sure at least one of them will attack her. Tulsi, for example, was recently described as a "loose cannon," which is accurate, but loose cannons can still hurt the people they're aimed at.

[Sidesh0w B0b]

Still hope Beto reconsiders another run for Texan seat in the US Senate. Polls show Cornyn's seat could be vulnerable.

Beto would not be the best Senate candidate by a long shot. Joaquin Castro or MJ Hegar has a better chance of winning. His political career is likely over unless someone shows mercy to him with a VP slot.

Unless the first debate is treated like the kids table and ignored. Any impact she has to make will only last about 20 hours before the big showdown between the other front runners happens. Though all she has to do is not fall on her face, I don't know that anyone will be all that aggressive against her since getting her to gaff won't help them, they need to be alternatives to the top five, not just get one to falter. They'll be trying to stand out instead of attack I'd imagine.

I'm sure at least one of them will attack her. Tulsi, for example, was recently described as a "loose cannon," which is accurate, but loose cannons can still hurt the people they're aimed at.

In recoil loose cannons also roll back over those who let be loose.

[Pasong Tirad]

Not exactly what I was talking about in this context. State party activists in Iowa are pretty significant if they break one way or the other. Enthusiasm on the ground may not translate into caucus votes, but it suggests that they haven't actually dismissed him out of hand yet, which could be significant.

I thought those people were flipping to Buttigieg?

Buttigieg is dead in the water. His own constituents are saying that they won't vote for him.

[Zurkerx]

lol remember when everyone thought Beto was gonna be the next big thing

Still hope Beto reconsiders another run for Texan seat in the US Senate. Polls show Cornyn's seat could be vulnerable.

Cornyn is much more popular I believe and has a better chance of keeping his seat. I don't expect to see Texas with a blue Senator any time soon.

[Corrian]

Ugh, campaign season begins tomorrow.

[Weed]

this^

Unless the first debate is treated like the kids table and ignored. Any impact she has to make will only last about 20 hours before the big showdown between the other front runners happens. Though all she has to do is not fall on her face, I don't know that anyone will be all that aggressive against her since getting her to gaff won't help them, they need to be alternatives to the top five, not just get one to falter. They'll be trying to stand out instead of attack I'd imagine.

She had to be sick when she saw that she was on one night, and basically every candidate polling above the margin of error was on another. She has a more difficult job making traction out of this first debate out of bad luck alone. I guess she could benefit from being the biggest seat at the smaller table, maybe she gets more screen time for that reason.

[Ifreann]

Warren pledges to ban private prisons.

Not gonna lie: she's getting me a bit hot under the collar.

Hmm. Warren has good policies. But Biden says that Trump is stupid. Real tough call.

[San Lumen]

Unless the first debate is treated like the kids table and ignored. Any impact she has to make will only last about 20 hours before the big showdown between the other front runners happens. Though all she has to do is not fall on her face, I don't know that anyone will be all that aggressive against her since getting her to gaff won't help them, they need to be alternatives to the top five, not just get one to falter. They'll be trying to stand out instead of attack I'd imagine.

She had to be sick when she saw that she was on one night, and basically every candidate polling above the margin of error was on another. She has a more difficult job making traction out of this first debate out of bad luck alone. I guess she could benefit from being the biggest seat at the smaller table, maybe she gets more screen time for that reason.

It really bothered me when I saw that. It made me question if it really was random

[Weed]

She had to be sick when she saw that she was on one night, and basically every candidate polling above the margin of error was on another. She has a more difficult job making traction out of this first debate out of bad luck alone. I guess she could benefit from being the biggest seat at the smaller table, maybe she gets more screen time for that reason.

It really bothered me when I saw that. It made me question if it really was random

And if she were going to be the only significant (in terms of current chances to win) on the stage, she got screwed by being on night 1. At least if she were night 2 she could respond to something outlandish said night 1 in response to a Q. This way she’s by herself and the other 4 can go after her for anything she had said the night before. Just a really bad draw for her.

I’m sure it was random. That’s a big downside to it being random - a top tier candidate can get shafted by poor luck. The way the GOP did kiddie table debates hurt the long shot candidates - but as they were long shots anyway the debate placing probably had less impact on the outcome than this random system could. Not sure there will ever be a good way to deal with national primaries in the internet age when national campaigns are much easier.

[Cannot think of a name]

It really bothered me when I saw that. It made me question if it really was random

And if she were going to be the only significant (in terms of current chances to win) on the stage, she got screwed by being on night 1. At least if she were night 2 she could respond to something outlandish said night 1 in response to a Q. This way she’s by herself and the other 4 can go after her for anything she had said the night before. Just a really bad draw for her.

I’m sure it was random. That’s a big downside to it being random - a top tier candidate can get shafted by poor luck. The way the GOP did kiddie table debates hurt the long shot candidates - but as they were long shots anyway the debate placing probably had less impact on the outcome than this random system could. Not sure there will ever be a good way to deal with national primaries in the internet age when national campaigns are much easier.

One solid week of round robin debates of five people at a time in different configurations.


I hate myself for even thinking of that...

[Farnhamia]

And if she were going to be the only significant (in terms of current chances to win) on the stage, she got screwed by being on night 1. At least if she were night 2 she could respond to something outlandish said night 1 in response to a Q. This way she’s by herself and the other 4 can go after her for anything she had said the night before. Just a really bad draw for her.

I’m sure it was random. That’s a big downside to it being random - a top tier candidate can get shafted by poor luck. The way the GOP did kiddie table debates hurt the long shot candidates - but as they were long shots anyway the debate placing probably had less impact on the outcome than this random system could. Not sure there will ever be a good way to deal with national primaries in the internet age when national campaigns are much easier.

One solid week of round robin debates of five people at a time in different configurations.


I hate myself for even thinking of that...

Make it like that Amazing Race show, if they can figure out where and when the debate is being held, they can be in it.

[Cannot think of a name]

One solid week of round robin debates of five people at a time in different configurations.


I hate myself for even thinking of that...

Make it like that Amazing Race show, if they can figure out where and when the debate is being held, they can be in it.

Crowd sourcing supporters as a way to measure the candidate's support. If your base is strong enough to figure the puzzle out for you, you're a contender.

Side note, that show holds the grand championship record for worst turn around ever. I got off at midnight and had to be back on at 4am.

[South Odreria]

I thought those people were flipping to Buttigieg?

Buttigieg is dead in the water. His own constituents are saying that they won't vote for him.

Not as dead as beto

[New Zacharianasville]

OMG I AM DYING

https://twitter.com/scottdetrow/status/ ... 7654289408

https://theweek.com/speedreads/849394/j ... candidates

https://dailycaller.com/2019/06/26/john ... 020-press/

[New Zacharianasville]

OMG I AM DYING

https://twitter.com/scottdetrow/status/ ... 7654289408

https://theweek.com/speedreads/849394/j ... candidates

https://dailycaller.com/2019/06/26/john ... 020-press/

OH MY GOD!

I'm not criticizing Hickenlooper as having no chance but that's still f*ckin hilarious!

He has no chance, the ass could have been a senator if he wanted (still might drop down) but nope, his ego got in the way.

[New Zacharianasville]

He has no chance, the ass could have been a senator if he wanted (still might drop down) but nope, his ego got in the way.

...I purposely am avoiding that because those arguments have gotten so toxic.

You can but I have no beef saying that almost every 1-2% er polling wise is an arrogant ass that may even be costing us senate seats

[New Zacharianasville]

You can but I have no beef saying that almost every 1-2% er polling wise is an arrogant ass that may even be costing us senate seats

...Adding to the toxicity.

Ok.


Yang is decent tho.

I am not afraid to sling shit in the primaries, so long as we all unite around the nominee, which I will do for anyone running in the field. Yang has no chance. I'm with my guy Joe.

[New Zacharianasville]

I am not afraid to sling shit in the primaries, so long as we all unite around the nominee, which I will do for anyone running in the field. Yang has no chance. I'm with my guy Joe.

Well fair, still like Yang.
What about the racism allegations/segregationist stuff?

I initially endorsed him but that alienated me.
(I'm a city council candidate)

He's just an old guy with lack of sensitivity, and he did have some shitty stances but he has visibly changed, and now his strongest group by far are older black voters, especially women. He is leading by a decent amount thusfar, but he is absolutely destroying and wrecking everybody in the primary polls in MS, SC, FL, the deep south etc because a lot of the dem primary voters there are black.

[Amenedes]

Well fair, still like Yang.
What about the racism allegations/segregationist stuff?

I initially endorsed him but that alienated me.
(I'm a city council candidate)

He's just an old guy with lack of sensitivity, and he did have some shitty stances but he has visibly changed, and now his strongest group by far are older black voters, especially women. He is leading by a decent amount thusfar, but he is absolutely destroying and wrecking everybody in the primary polls in MS, SC, FL, the deep south etc because a lot of the dem primary voters there are black.

I tell you what, I think that if Biden get in this next round of elections, that basically giving the election to Trump. The only way that the Democrats have a chance of winning is if they get enough support behind a real progressive.

[Telconi]

Well fair, still like Yang.
What about the racism allegations/segregationist stuff?

I initially endorsed him but that alienated me.
(I'm a city council candidate)

He's just an old guy with lack of sensitivity, and he did have some shitty stances but he has visibly changed, and now his strongest group by far are older black voters, especially women. He is leading by a decent amount thusfar, but he is absolutely destroying and wrecking everybody in the primary polls in MS, SC, FL, the deep south etc because a lot of the dem primary voters there are black.

I wonder how much of his appeal to black Democrats is just leftover Obama recognition.

[New Zacharianasville]

He's just an old guy with lack of sensitivity, and he did have some shitty stances but he has visibly changed, and now his strongest group by far are older black voters, especially women. He is leading by a decent amount thusfar, but he is absolutely destroying and wrecking everybody in the primary polls in MS, SC, FL, the deep south etc because a lot of the dem primary voters there are black.

I wonder how much of his appeal to black Democrats is just leftover Obama recognition.

If I had to guess, most of it.

[New Zacharianasville]

He's just an old guy with lack of sensitivity, and he did have some shitty stances but he has visibly changed, and now his strongest group by far are older black voters, especially women. He is leading by a decent amount thusfar, but he is absolutely destroying and wrecking everybody in the primary polls in MS, SC, FL, the deep south etc because a lot of the dem primary voters there are black.

I tell you what, I think that if Biden get in this next round of elections, that basically giving the election to Trump. The only way that the Democrats have a chance of winning is if they get enough support behind a real progressive.

I don't believe this.

[Vassenor]

Senate GOP blocks election security bill

How terribly convenient of them.

[Telconi]

I wonder how much of his appeal to black Democrats is just leftover Obama recognition.

If I had to guess, most of it.

The problem with name recognition is that it starts to wane as people start to associate the other candidates with policy and beliefs, and not just with "who?"

[Amenedes]

I tell you what, I think that if Biden get in this next round of elections, that basically giving the election to Trump. The only way that the Democrats have a chance of winning is if they get enough support behind a real progressive.

I don't believe this.

Why not? My opinion is that Biden is courting the same voters that Trump is courting: people above 55. That is really what 'funded' the last election, and I think the DNC is erring by placing their bet on the same type of strategy. Think about all the original and hopeful ideas some of these progressives have thought up, and then you have Biden coming in and basically plagiarizing his Climate Change agenda. No - if Biden gets the nomination that'll be the end of the Democrats. (Not actually).