2019-2020 US Election Megathread II: Tim Ryan's Empire

[Blargoblarg]

I'm not putting much stock in the polls showing Biden ahead of Bernie. A lot of those polls are over-sampling older people who have landline phones and who are more likely to support establishment candidates like Biden, while under-sampling younger voters who mainly use cell phones and who are more likely to support progressives like Bernie.

[Sidesh0w B0b]

Would Obama have lost if Biden wasn't his VP? Electability doesn't make sense given that Biden ran for president twice before and also lost twice before.

He ran for the nomination of the Democratic Party twice before. That's somewhat different than the general election. And his primary campaigns suffered from bad staffs and bad gaffs. On the other hand, in 2007 he gave us this dismissal of Rudy Giuliani, "There's only three things he mentions in a sentence: a noun, and a verb and 9/11."

That was on a par with Lloyd Bentsen's mammoth shot at Dan Quayle after comparing himself to JFK, "I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy." Quite memorable.

Joe Biden is clearly presidential material. He's got that big lead bc he's played the long game in politics very well during quickly changing times. Joe has also survived all the slings and arrows of personal misfortune which shows the common man he's a human being with excellent personal qualities. This draws a sharp contrast to Trump who is lacking any such perspective. Those fake bone spurs are his self created misfortune which allowed him to dodge the Vietnam War. That and "his personal Vietnam" worrying of getting an HIV infection in the 1980s. Biden is the anti-Trump.

[Valrifell]

I'm not putting much stock in the polls showing Biden ahead of Bernie. A lot of those polls are over-sampling older people who have landline phones and who are more likely to support establishment candidates like Biden, while under-sampling younger voters who mainly use cell phones and who are more likely to support progressives like Bernie.

Older and financially stable folk are also more likely to participate in elections and give a fuck this far out, so.

EDIT: also it's hilarious that people think professional pollsters are dumb enough to not account for oversampling through landlines when the results are published. Of course they do, I'd imagine they whack the raw data with math to make it more accurate.

[Bahktar]

For me, it's either Biden or Buttigieg 2020. Biden has a real connection with working class people and Trump attacking him is going only to make him more popular - Biden isn't the pushover that we perceive Clinton to have been. It's easy to see when in the 2012 VP Debates, Joe Biden steamrolled Paul Ryan - however - it depends, because this is Trump. But so far, I really like Biden. Of course, Bernie is good too and all the candidates are pretty good, but eh.

Then again, I'm not American

[Nakena]

Then again, I'm not American

We're the insidious and sneaky foreign internet influencers who have arcane powers over the outcome of american presidential elections.

[Ifreann]

I wouldn’t say that, we have a school of forestry.

So the average farmer goes to Yale. Right.

To study forestry.

[Sidesh0w B0b]

I'm not putting much stock in the polls showing Biden ahead of Bernie. A lot of those polls are over-sampling older people who have landline phones and who are more likely to support establishment candidates like Biden, while under-sampling younger voters who mainly use cell phones and who are more likely to support progressives like Bernie.

Older and financially stable folk are also more likely to participate in elections and give a fuck this far out, so.

EDIT: also it's hilarious that people think professional pollsters are dumb enough to not account for oversampling through landlines when the results are published. Of course they do, I'd imagine they whack the raw data with math to make it more accurate.

People think professional pollsters are people. That's the problem. People know that other people are always dumb enough in any area to not account for the most obvious of FUBAR things on occasion. As proof, I show you the relationship between the GOP and the current wayward POTUS.

So the average farmer goes to Yale. Right.

To study forestry.

Bush 41 always good (Smokey Joe) Wood on the ball while playing first for Yale baseball.

[San Lumen]

I'm not putting much stock in the polls showing Biden ahead of Bernie. A lot of those polls are over-sampling older people who have landline phones and who are more likely to support establishment candidates like Biden, while under-sampling younger voters who mainly use cell phones and who are more likely to support progressives like Bernie.

yeah those polls are skewed against Sanders. do you know how polls even work?

[Cannot think of a name]

I'm not putting much stock in the polls showing Biden ahead of Bernie. A lot of those polls are over-sampling older people who have landline phones and who are more likely to support establishment candidates like Biden, while under-sampling younger voters who mainly use cell phones and who are more likely to support progressives like Bernie.

yeah those polls are skewed against Sanders. do you know how polls even work?

Cribbing a ten year old observation from 538 isn't as impressive as it sounds. Most aggregators weigh polls now and most pollsters have adapted to the modern times. Making blanket statements isn't as useful as citing the people who actually have examined individual polling methods.

[Shrillland]

Heading to Congress for a second, Montana Senate hopeful Wilmot Collins got ticketed today for leaving the scene of a hit-and-run that he caused: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mayor-us-senate-hopeful-cited-for-leaving-accident-scene/ar-AABRPPV?li=BBnbfcL

[Liriena]

This Republican candidate seemingly threatened @AOC by saying he’d fight Democrats like her ‘the same way [he] fought terrorists’

Very cool.

[Washington Resistance Army]

This Republican candidate seemingly threatened @AOC by saying he’d fight Democrats like her ‘the same way [he] fought terrorists’

Very cool.

tbh I'm convinced the GOP has adopted accelerationism

[Gormwood]

This Republican candidate seemingly threatened @AOC by saying he’d fight Democrats like her ‘the same way [he] fought terrorists’

Very cool.

tbh I'm convinced the GOP has adopted accelerationism

Which would mean war against Iran would be inevitable.

[Shrillland]

tbh I'm convinced the GOP has adopted accelerationism

Which would mean war against Iran would be inevitable.

Or against each other...we wouldn't have the resources to do both. Hell, Iran alone means re-introducing the draft.

[Liriena]

This Republican candidate seemingly threatened @AOC by saying he’d fight Democrats like her ‘the same way [he] fought terrorists’

Very cool.

tbh I'm convinced the GOP has adopted accelerationism

The constant stochastic terrorism mixed in with cataclysmically awful socioeconomic policies sure suggests that they're either fantastically dumb and arrogant or are playing some sort of Marxist-Leninist 7D backgammon.

[Telconi]

Which would mean war against Iran would be inevitable.

Or against each other...we wouldn't have the resources to do both. Hell, Iran alone means re-introducing the draft.

Iranians did nothing wrong.

[Shrillland]

Or against each other...we wouldn't have the resources to do both. Hell, Iran alone means re-introducing the draft.

Iranians did nothing wrong.

...I never said they did, I was only saying that Iran's population, size, and armed forces are much too much in terms of numbers for our current armed forces, not to mention they have the latest in Russian equipment and training and the country itself is mostly mountain ranges. A war with Iran wouldn't be like what happened with Iraq, we couldn't just sweep through and spend 20 years with the insurgency, we would need a much larger and steadier supply of men and women to come in.

[Telconi]

Iranians did nothing wrong.

...I never said they did, I was only saying that Iran's population, size, and armed forces are much too much in terms of numbers for our current armed forces, not to mention they have the latest in Russian equipment and training and the country itself is mostly mountain ranges. A war with Iran wouldn't be like what happened with Iraq, we couldn't just sweep through and spend 20 years with the insurgency, we would need a much larger and steadier supply of men and women to come in.

Sure would, I was simply replying to the dichotomy stated, you said we couldn't fight Iran and each other at the same time.

[Shrillland]

...I never said they did, I was only saying that Iran's population, size, and armed forces are much too much in terms of numbers for our current armed forces, not to mention they have the latest in Russian equipment and training and the country itself is mostly mountain ranges. A war with Iran wouldn't be like what happened with Iraq, we couldn't just sweep through and spend 20 years with the insurgency, we would need a much larger and steadier supply of men and women to come in.

Sure would, I was simply replying to the dichotomy stated, you said we couldn't fight Iran and each other at the same time.

Well, the Russians weren't able to do it 100 years ago, nor were the Royalist Italians really a significant force in WW2 because of their internal squabbles with the Fascists.

[San Lumen]

This Republican candidate seemingly threatened @AOC by saying he’d fight Democrats like her ‘the same way [he] fought terrorists’

Very cool.

that is shameful conduct from a veteran. All the crazy people run as Republicans and then they wonder why they lose. This is a very competitive but trending blue district so if he got the nod its not impossible that he could win.

[The Xenopolis Confederation]

This Republican candidate seemingly threatened @AOC by saying he’d fight Democrats like her ‘the same way [he] fought terrorists’

Very cool.

tbh I'm convinced the GOP has adopted accelerationism

So if the far left has adopted accelerationism, and the GOP has too, that leaves us with... the moderate left, centrists and libertarians to save the day. Oh my.

[Shrillland]

tbh I'm convinced the GOP has adopted accelerationism

So if the far left has adopted accelerationism, and the GOP has too, that leaves us with... the moderate left, centrists and libertarians to save the day. Oh my.

Depends on the Libertarians. There are some that would relish the idea of a Libertarian Revolution as well.

[Washington Resistance Army]

So if the far left has adopted accelerationism, and the GOP has too, that leaves us with... the moderate left, centrists and libertarians to save the day. Oh my.

Depends on the Libertarians. There are some that would relish the idea of a Libertarian Revolution as well.

I'd argue they're more fond of the idea than most. Don't Tread On Me and whatnot.

[The Xenopolis Confederation]

Depends on the Libertarians. There are some that would relish the idea of a Libertarian Revolution as well.

I'd argue they're more fond of the idea than most. Don't Tread On Me and whatnot.

I'd argue contemporary right wing libertarians are the least prone to revolution unless the U.S becomes autocratic. "Don't tread on me" is not a revolutionary motto. Well, it was, but it's not... you know what I mean.

[Liriena]

tbh I'm convinced the GOP has adopted accelerationism

So if the far left has adopted accelerationism, and the GOP has too, that leaves us with... the moderate left, centrists and libertarians to save the day. Oh my.

We're doomed.