Wargame simulations show Russia and China could defeat US

[An Alan Smithee Nation]

The military industrial combine want even more of your money.

[Western Vale Confederacy]

The military industrial combine want even more of your money.

The entire US budget should be the military!

[Risottia]

The military industrial combine want even more of your money.

The entire US budget should be the military!

Remove the socialist police forces, the military is more than enough to protect top officers and key interests, let to citizens pay the OCP for their personal security if they want to.

Eyyup.

[Lanoraie II]

Do they take into account nukes?

[Risottia]

Is that an ad hominem trying to suggest that RAND corp isn't a lobby founded and supported by US industries who happen to be major contractors for the US armed forces?

It's me saying you're talking out of your ass. RAND is directly paid by the military to do studies for them, it does not produce the equipment it says the military needs nor does it sell stock that Defense contractors will buy to try to influence it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAND_Corporation

Exactly where did I talk about stocks? Exactly where did I claim Rand produces equipment? Stop making up strawmen and start reading before answering.

[Confederate States of German America]

It's me saying you're talking out of your ass. RAND is directly paid by the military to do studies for them, it does not produce the equipment it says the military needs nor does it sell stock that Defense contractors will buy to try to influence it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAND_Corporation

Exactly where did I talk about stocks? Exactly where did I claim Rand produces equipment? Stop making up strawmen and start reading before answering.

Because that is the only way RAND could be influenced by non-Armed Forces actors on defense matters.

[Aclion]

This seems to be missing a critical factor. The US would never be alone in a war with russia/china in the baltics/south china sea. Introduce Nato/Seato into the mix, plus other potential allies like india and japan, and I think the results would be quite different.

[Confederate States of German America]

This seems to be missing a critical factor. The US would never be alone in a war with russia/china in the baltics/south china sea. Introduce Nato/Seato into the mix, plus other potential allies like india and japan, and I think the results would be quite different.

They were factored in. Only Poland and Japan are actually relevant U.S. allies, regardless.

[Western Vale Confederacy]

This seems to be missing a critical factor. The US would never be alone in a war with russia/china in the baltics/south china sea. Introduce Nato/Seato into the mix, plus other potential allies like india and japan, and I think the results would be quite different.

They were factored in. Only Poland and Japan are actually relevant U.S. allies, regardless.

So Germany’s mighty force of painted broomsticks ain’t gonna cut it?

[Washington Resistance Army]

No shit. The military is a mess that hasn't kept up with the funding increases the rest of the government has gotten and it shows.

inb4 someone still argues we should cut their funding even more

[Luxcentra]

---ignore this comment, I cannot delete it---

[The Feylands]

Not necessarily the biggest fan of Russia in all aspects.. because they are Christian imperialists the small countries along its borders have very legitimate concerns about not getting swallowed whole again.

But it’s good that the world is moving into a more multipolar mode. And kinda exciting that a non-western power like China is leading that evolution.

I obviously don’t want a war or anything. But this development can stop the US. from staring those.

[Confederate States of German America]

No shit. The military is a mess that hasn't kept up with the funding increases the rest of the government has gotten and it shows.

inb4 someone still argues we should cut their funding even more

I will throw a bone here to the other side to keep things honest; the Pentagon did bury a report that found $25 Billion annually in waste that could be cut. The reason why they did, however, is very telling:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A Defense Department study that proposed cutting $125 billion in administrative waste from the Pentagon budget was buried amid concerns the findings would give Congress an excuse to further slash defense spending, the Washington Post reported on Monday.

The report, issued in January 2015, identified a “clear path” for the Pentagon to save $125 billion over five years by streamlining the bureaucracy through attrition and early retirements, curtailing the use of contractors and making better use of information technology, the Post said.

The study was carried out by the Defense Business Board, which is an advisory panel of corporate executives, and consultants from McKinsey and Co, the Post said.

Using personnel and cost data, the report disclosed that the Pentagon was spending a quarter of its $580 billion budget on overhead and operations such as accounting, human resources, logistics and property management, the Post said.

The study found that the Pentagon had more than a million people working desk jobs in its business operations, compared with 1.3 million troops on active duty. People working the desk jobs included 298,000 uniformed personnel, 448,000 civilian defense workers and 268,000 contractors, it said.

The study was requested by Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work, the Post said. Work initially identified the efficiency effort as a top priority but ultimately dismissed the proposed $125 billion in savings as unrealistic, it said.

The move to cut $125 billion in wasteful spending was attractive to the military, whose budget has been slashed by billions over the past five years. But some Pentagon leaders worried that identifying the spending as waste might encourage Congress or the White House to cut more deeply, the Post said.

The proposal was ultimately killed. The department imposed secrecy restrictions on the data and removed a 77-page summary report from its website, the Post said.

Pentagon officials could not immediately be reached for comment.

[Unstoppable Empire of Doom]

Europe needs to defend itself.

The US is 40% of the world's military budget, 5% of it's population. Expectations are wayyyy too high if they are expected to conventionally defend 3 continents and contain a third.

[Unstoppable Empire of Doom]

No shit. The military is a mess that hasn't kept up with the funding increases the rest of the government has gotten and it shows.

inb4 someone still argues we should cut their funding even more

I will throw a bone here to the other side to keep things honest; the Pentagon did bury a report that found $25 Billion annually in waste that could be cut. The reason why they did, however, is very telling:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A Defense Department study that proposed cutting $125 billion in administrative waste from the Pentagon budget was buried amid concerns the findings would give Congress an excuse to further slash defense spending, the Washington Post reported on Monday.

The report, issued in January 2015, identified a “clear path” for the Pentagon to save $125 billion over five years by streamlining the bureaucracy through attrition and early retirements, curtailing the use of contractors and making better use of information technology, the Post said.

The study was carried out by the Defense Business Board, which is an advisory panel of corporate executives, and consultants from McKinsey and Co, the Post said.

Using personnel and cost data, the report disclosed that the Pentagon was spending a quarter of its $580 billion budget on overhead and operations such as accounting, human resources, logistics and property management, the Post said.

The study found that the Pentagon had more than a million people working desk jobs in its business operations, compared with 1.3 million troops on active duty. People working the desk jobs included 298,000 uniformed personnel, 448,000 civilian defense workers and 268,000 contractors, it said.

The study was requested by Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work, the Post said. Work initially identified the efficiency effort as a top priority but ultimately dismissed the proposed $125 billion in savings as unrealistic, it said.

The move to cut $125 billion in wasteful spending was attractive to the military, whose budget has been slashed by billions over the past five years. But some Pentagon leaders worried that identifying the spending as waste might encourage Congress or the White House to cut more deeply, the Post said.

The proposal was ultimately killed. The department imposed secrecy restrictions on the data and removed a 77-page summary report from its website, the Post said.

Pentagon officials could not immediately be reached for comment.

Pentagon wastefulness is nothing new. The military desperately needs reforming mostly to deal with this. Between administration, contractors, mic, and poorly done bids the Pentagon probably burns 3/4th of it's annual budget.

[Great Aletia]

I could believe that... provided Russia could get more than half their hardware mobilized. Last I heard the last decade has not been kind to Russia's military, and the sanctions have hit them pretty hard. I don't see Russia rolling into any major NATO countries anytime soon, but I can believe them taking 72 hours to take out Lavtia's capital. Invading Poland though? Yeah, nah. Maybe a few weeks to get to Warsaw, but I don't see Russia rolling through the countryside without substantial casulties.

China would be a different kettle of fish. Would the US even want to intervene in Taiwan? We've been shilling the One China speech for more than a few decades now, and going back on that would be pretty silly. Still not 100% sure how China would physically invade Taiwan though. I'd have to check up on China's ability to transport troops.

The Russian military is actually in a much better place now than it was in the early 90s or 2000s. There are still problems with corruption and training, but the army has moved from predominantly conscription to hiring contractors, the navy has begun receiving new ships and modernising old ships, and the share of new or modern equipment in the army and airforce has risen above 60%, a first for both since the Soviet period. The Russians know demographics are the future and that they can't rely on numbers anymore, so they're trying to redevelop the armed forces to put the emphasis on survivability. They know the only they will be able to remain competitive is to getting everything possible out of each individual man, as the US and other modern militaries do.

I've been tracking the change for years. It's interesting to see.

[Novus America]

This seems to be missing a critical factor. The US would never be alone in a war with russia/china in the baltics/south china sea. Introduce Nato/Seato into the mix, plus other potential allies like india and japan, and I think the results would be quite different.

Most of our (alleged) “allies” could not fight their way out of a paper bag.
We have basically Poland, the UK (as long as Corbyn keeps losing, if he wins the UK is no longer and ally) South Korea and Japan.

Besides using economic warfare to slow the Chinese economy (restrict their market access hack their companies, steal their intellectual property, give them a taste of their own medicine) we also need our allies the vastly step it up.
Otherwise we can only defend the Americas.

We cannot alone be expected to protect Europe.

We should withdraw our troops from Germany at least.
Send them to Poland and the Baltics.

[Greater Westralia]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-pl ... 1552922721

Germany is a piss-poor ally.

[-Ocelot-]

NATO and therefore the US should really step it up in Europe if they want to curb Russian imperialism and the subsequent destruction of eastern Europe. Baltic countries may escape because of NATO memberships but countries like Ukraine and Belarus will most likely cease to exist in the future.

This is what a so-called "mutlipolar" world is in practice. A bunch of Asian regional powers with imperialist policies destroying nations and people's lives while the US observes from afar.

[Evil Dictators Happyland]

Since when was it not relatively common knowledge that Russia and China could crush tiny nations on their border?
The point we're making is not "we can defeat the Russian Army with the forces we have in Estonia". The point we're making is "if you attack Estonia, we can and will turn Russia to radioactive ash". Estonia's not worth that, so Russia won't attack. Same deal with China and Taiwan, or North Korea and South Korea (though that one is a bit more questionable).

[First American Empire]

Nice and all, but how long would France last before surrendering after inevitably choosing the wrong side?

Sometime after they've already launched their entire nuclear arsenal and destroyed the 300 largest cities in Russia. This time, the planet would break before France does.

[The Galactic Liberal Democracy]

I think the problem is that Rand is running the simulations, how is he even relevant?

[Bear Stearns]

This is good and bad.

I don't find the fact that Russia could conquer a Baltic state so quickly to be good.

Is it really anymore surprising than the U.S.'s ability to conquer some shithole Central American nation?

[Bear Stearns]

Since when was it not relatively common knowledge that Russia and China could crush tiny nations on their border?
The point we're making is not "we can defeat the Russian Army with the forces we have in Estonia". The point we're making is "if you attack Estonia, we can and will turn Russia to radioactive ash". Estonia's not worth that, so Russia won't attack. Same deal with China and Taiwan, or North Korea and South Korea (though that one is a bit more questionable).

I feel like nuking all of Russia over an invasion of Estonia (population 1.3 mm) is pretty heinous.

[Bear Stearns]

They were factored in. Only Poland and Japan are actually relevant U.S. allies, regardless.

So Germany’s mighty force of painted broomsticks ain’t gonna cut it?

Germany is a terrible ally.