Spoiler Alert: ANC Wins(A South African Vote Thread)

[Nova Cyberia]

Uh... no... it doesn't need to happen.

Why you want a repeat of the disaster in Zimbabwe I'll never know.

Little matey. I'm a White Zimbabwean. I fucking know what happens when land reform goes wrong. If people really want land reform to go wrong then see what radicalising the different ethnic groups in South Africa through radical extremist parties will get you.

You wanna know the quickest way to radicalize people? Confiscate their land.

[Shrillland]

Little matey. I'm a White Zimbabwean. I fucking know what happens when land reform goes wrong. If people really want land reform to go wrong then see what radicalising the different ethnic groups in South Africa through radical extremist parties will get you.

You wanna know the quickest way to radicalize people? Confiscate their land.

Land reform doesn't automatically mean confiscation and expulsion. It can mean allotment where the government is willing to pay far out the arse to buy sections of the land and sell them at bargain-basement prices to anyone willing to farm or ranch on it.

[Nova Cyberia]

You wanna know the quickest way to radicalize people? Confiscate their land.

Land reform doesn't automatically mean confiscation and explusion. It can mean allotment where the government is willing to pay far out the arse to buy sections of the land and sell them at bargain-basement prices to anyone willing to farm or ranch on it.

That's great and all, but it's not what's been happening. They tried buying the land and few wanted to sell. Now they're going down the good ole' "confiscation without compensation" route.

[Heloin]

You wanna know the quickest way to radicalize people? Confiscate their land.

Land reform doesn't automatically mean confiscation and expulsion. It can mean allotment where the government is willing to pay far out the arse to buy sections of the land and sell them at bargain-basement prices to anyone willing to farm or ranch on it.

I think Nova here doesn't quite understand there is middle ground between the vast majority of land being owned by a White minority and "Shoot the Boer".

[Communist Zombie Horde]

Freedom front for standing up against anti white racism.

[New Socialist South Africa]

Land reform doesn't automatically mean confiscation and expulsion. It can mean allotment where the government is willing to pay far out the arse to buy sections of the land and sell them at bargain-basement prices to anyone willing to farm or ranch on it.

I think Nova here doesn't quite understand there is middle ground between the vast majority of land being owned by a White minority and "Shoot the Boer".

Agreed. Hopefully that middle ground can be walked carefully. Meaningfully enough to ensure real economic reform and upliftment of historically disenfranchised groups, including the black majority - but not in a reckless fashion that causes a crisis. The reaching of a well managed middle group could also uplift people and thus help minimise the popularity of the EFF in the future. The party thrives on populist rhetoric fueled by socio-economic despair and anger, and if the situation improves and the working class are better uplifted, their support may dwindle.

I just come back from voting myself. The line was fairly long despite the early hour at the polling station I went to. That isn't enough to say anything about national turnout, but in the part of Makhanda / Grahamstown I live in people seem to be going out to vote in decent numbers. The mood was quite friendly, the only anger coming from one voter being annoyed that the voter's roll at the station wasn't in alphabetical order, which was slowing down the process due to the officials taking some time to check the list for voters names. There were enough IEC staff to keep things moving along however. I spent the roughly hour to an hour and a half long wait in the queue in the line chatting to a guy doing his PhD Environmental Science about politics, and the whole event was fairly straightforward and pleasant, at least where I voted.

[New Socialist South Africa]

Ipsos has released a final poll yesterday, which suggests that the ANC will hold on with more than 60% of the vote, either seeing a very slight decline to 61% or 62% if their is medium (71 and 75%) voter turnout, or even seeing a slight increase to 64% if voter turnout is low (60%) - due to young voters not turning up - or to 65% if voter turnout is high (80%) - due to dissatisfied ANC voters still turning out to vote. If this poll proves to be accurate, Ramaphosa could rightly claim that the ANC has won a clear electoral victory yet again.The ANC won 62.15% of the vote under incumbent President Jacob Zuma in 2014.

Ipsos predicts a slight but noticeable decline for the DA, with 17% predicted on low turnout (60%), 19% on medium turnout (71 and 75%) and 18% on high voter turnout (80%). If this poll proves correct, it would be the first time the DA would lose decline in their share of the vote since the transition to democracy at the end of Apartheid, with the DA having increased steadily since 1994 (when it was the Democratic Party - DP). These results could also force the DA to form a coalition in the Western Cape, the only province they currently control, and the only province not under ANC control. The decline in support may be indicative of internal schisms in the DA, such as their ousting of Cape Town Mayor Patrica de Lille last year, who subsequently formed a new political party simply named "Good". The party may also be struggling to appeal to most younger voters with its fairly centrist to neoliberal policy proposals. The DA won 22.23% under Helen Zille in 2014.

Ipsos predicts a significant but not overwhelming increase for the EFF, with 10% predicted on low turnout (60%) - due to low youth turnout - and 11% on medium and high turnout (71, 75 and 80%). All of this would reflect a growth in support for the party, likely due to populist anger and dissatisfaction among young and working class black South Africans. However, the increase isn't as high as the 14% the IRR predicted, which is somewhat good news for opponents of the EFF. The EFF won 6.35% of the vote in 2014, the first election it competed in, under its founder and "Commander in Chief" Julius Malema.

Ipsos predicts a slight increase for the IFP, with 3% predicted regardless of turnout. The IFP won 2.4% of the vote under its founder and leader Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi in 2014. This will be Buthelezi's last time standing in an election as IFP party leader, with the 90 year old stating he will run for party leader again. He has run the party since he founded in in 1975.

The FF+ is predicted to win 1% of the vote regardless of turnout, a very slight increase from their 0.9% in 2014.

All other parties combined are predicted to win 5% if turnout in low (60%) or medium-low (71%), 4% if turnout is medium-high (75%) and just 2% is turnout is high (80%). This is as if the supporters of the "big three" turnout in high numbers, it will reduce the percentage share of smaller parties. If turnout is lower these parties will likely have more of a share of the vote.

https://www.news24.com/Elections/News/last-ipsos-poll-puts-anc-at-more-than-60-20190507

Update 1: It has been raining on and off today in Makhanda / Grahamstown and reportedly across South Africa. This may dampen the spirits of some potential voters still deciding whether to vote or not, and may cause lower turnout. With that said, the weather was quite miserable during the 2014 elections, and turnout was still about 73.5%. Many voters have and no doubt will prove resilient and battle the weather regardless.

Update 2: Voting is now closed, with those already in lines able to vote. The South African has written a fairly good summary of the issues and challenges faced by some voters and by the Independent Electoral Commision (IEC) today:

https://www.thesouthafrican.com/south-africa-election-day-overview-8-may-2019/

[Shrillland]

No exit polls...so we'll be waiting a while. SABC is talking a lot about potential coalitions though.

[Shrillland]

The first results from Umzimbuvu, Eastern Cape are in...all 24 votes from the area, but it shows ANC leading with 11 votes and EFF with 8.

[New Socialist South Africa]

The first results from Umzimbuvu, Eastern Cape are in...all 24 votes from the area, but it shows ANC leading with 11 votes and EFF with 8.

Brace yourselves for a bit of a wait. The final results should be announced by Saturday, maybe Sunday, and it may take a day or two to get a real sense of where the votes have fallen.

[New Socialist South Africa]

The votes are still coming in, and it is still early, so take all these points with a very big grain of salt:

The results so far suggest that the ANC will hold onto power (shocker, I know), but are projected to get less than 60% of the vote. This would be the first time since the first democratic elections in 1994 that this would occur, with the ANC consistently winning over 60% of the vote. Election modelling is showing between 56% and 59%. While the ANC would thus still hold onto power by a comfortable margin, it would see a continued decline in support, and one that is showing the cracks in party support slowly becoming deeper fissures. These results appear to be due to increasingly low turnout by the ANC's traditional black working class base, who are becoming increasingly frustrated with the party and just not showing up to vote for them. If results change and the party can hold on to over 60% of the vote, then the ANC can breathe a sigh of relief.

As it stands right now - at about 11:08am on Thursday the 9th of May, with the votes in so far (a lot more to come):

1st - the ANC, with about 55.09% - winning 8 of the 9 provinces, a distant second in the Western Cape
2nd - the DA, with about 25.68% - holding onto their stronghold of the Western Cape comfortably
3rd - the EFF, with about 8.64%
4th - the VF+, with about 3.11% - the party seeming to be surging in support
5th - the IFP, Buthelezi's party struggling early on at 1.7%
6th - ACDP, doing well so far at 1.08%
7th - Patricia de Lille's "Good", doing alright for their first election at 0.71%
8th - the UDM, down to only about 0.49%
9th - newcomer social conservatives, the African Transformation Movement (ATM), heading for a seat or two at 0.44%
10th - COPE, desperately holding on at just 0.36%. COPE was the third largest party in 2009, and fell sharply in 2014.

Urban areas tend to come in earlier than rural areas, so the ANC's rural support will likely help them surge somewhat later. The DA tends to be strong in the cities, so their vote may decline later as a result of this. Where the other parties go is far more difficult to say. Voter turnout is reported as being about 65.34%.

[New Socialist South Africa]

News24 is now projecting their predicted results for what they predict will be the five largest parties, making provision for a 1% margin of error in either direction (the results in brackets are the 2014 results, showing where the parties were before the election):

- ANC: 57.1% (62.15%) - down about 5% points

- DA: 21.7% (22.23%) - down about 0.5% points

- EFF: 9.7% (6.35%) - up about 3.35% points

- IFP: 3.5% (2.40%) - up about 1.1% points

- FF Plus: 2.8% (0.90%) - up about 1.9% points

https://www.news24.com/elections/news/news24-projects-anc-on-57-da-declines-and-eff-grows-20190509

Time will tell if these predictions are correct. If they are, it means the ANC will hold on to power with a comfortable win, but will continue to see a steady slide of support, dipping below 60% support for the first time in a national election, having won over 60% in ever election since the first democratic elections in 1994.

The DA's growth appears to have stalled if these results prove correct, the party even predicted to face a slight decline for the first time in their post 1994 history.

The EFF look to grow significantly, but may fall short of the 10% mark, meaning the party's predicted wave of support was not as large as some polls predicted.

The IFP will make back some ground and will hold onto 4th place, but won't see a massive resurgence.

The VF+ look like they will make significant gains, more than tripling in size if the prediction proves correct, and will take 5th place.This is likely due to a combination of appealing to Coloured voters and due to seeing turnout among staunch opponents of land expropriation without compensation. This would be somewhat of a resurgence for the VF+, whose predecessor, simply named the Vryheidsfront / Freedom Front, won 2.17% of the vote and gained 4th place in the first multi-racial democratic elections in South Africa in 1994.

With about just over half the stations in thr country counted so far, the results currently stand as such:

1st - ANC - 56.77%
2nd - DA - 23.04%
3rd - EFF - 9.5%
4th - VF+ - 2.76%
5th - IFP - 2.32%
6th - ACDP - 0.98%
7th - Good - 0.61%
8th - UDM - 0.55%
9th - ATM (African Transformation Movement) - 0.48%
10th - COPE - 0.32%

Several other parties are fighting it out in the 0.2% area right now, with some of them possibly being able to pick up a lone seat in the National Assembly. It will be a tough fight for seats here however.

Live map by News24 here:

https://www.news24.com/elections/results/npe#election=national&year=2019&map=live

Voting results are fully in from the municipality I voted in - Makana Municipality in the Eastern Cape. The municipality is centred around the small city of Makhanda / Grahamstown, and includes several nearby smaller towns and villages and the surrounding rural areas. The ANC tends to do better in Makana than they do nationally, given Makana's large working class black Xhosa population.

The results in Makana are:

ANC - 63.1%
DA - 22.48%
EFF - 8.96%
Spoilt votes - 1.2%
AZAPO (a minor black consciousness party popular in Makhanda) - 0.73%
ACDP - 0.57%
All other parties: 2.96% - no other party getting over 0.5%

The ANC did well in the rural areas and in the working class townships of the town, and very narrowly came 1st at the Steve Biko Hall voting station, the voting station centered on Rhodes University / the University Currently Known As Rhodes (UCKAR) - getting 34.31% of the mostly students and university academic and support staff there.

The DA garnered most of their votes from several wealthier suburbs and from the CBD of Makhanda / Grahamstown, securing 81.5% of the vote from the Graeme College voting station, which is located in a largely white and wealthy area of Makhanda / Grahamstown. The DA also narrowly secured Hooggenoeg Hall however, a more middle to lower-middle income part of Makhanda / Grahamstown, which is largely Coloured and black African, gaining 49.39% there. They came second at Steve Biko Hall with 28.95%, winning the votes of a number of students and staff (likely disproportionally among white, Coloured and Indian students and staff however).

The EFF's biggest single source of votes in Makana seems to have been Steve Biko Hall, coming third with 24.87% of the vote there, securing 524 of their 2 446 votes in Makana from that one voting station. Clearly a large number of students (likely disproportionally among black students) went out and expressed their dissatisfaction with the ANC. The number of EFF votes at Steve Biko Hall, 524, is more than 5 times the number of votes the EFF got in 2014 at the Rhodes Theater district which predated the current voting station, when the EFF only got 83 votes (3.17%). The student protests demanding free quality tertiary education (#FeesMustFall) and against rape and rape culture (#ReferenceList) - as well as the brutal police response to both protests - has clearly led to a surge in EFF support among these students.

[Shrillland]

Down to 228 seats...at this point, they'll be forced to make a coalition with EFF in just 10 years time.

[New Socialist South Africa]

Down to 228 seats...at this point, they'll be forced to make a coalition with EFF in just 10 years time.

... or the DA. If I know the ANC they will probably try build a coalition with the smaller parties first, try get the UDM, AIC or NFP on side (if they still exist by then). With the seeming rise of the ATM in this election to win 1 or 2 seats, the ANC could also look to them another potential ally, despite their social conservatism on wanting to bring back the death penalty and their tough on crime stances. After that is done, it really is difficult to say whether the ANC would prefer an alliance with the EFF or DA. The DA are in many ways closer to them in terms of policy and realpolitik, the EFF are closer to them in terms of promises. I think the DA would also far sooner see themselves in a coalition or supply and support deal with the ANC than an ANC-EFF coalition.

An ANC-EFF coalition would be the DA's worst nightmare, and would scare the sh*t out of the capitalist overlords over in the US and Europe. An ANC-DA coalition, on the other hand, could be the last straw for a lot of young and working class black voters.

[Heloin]

Down to 228 seats...at this point, they'll be forced to make a coalition with EFF in just 10 years time.

... or the DA. If I know the ANC they will probably try build a coalition with the smaller parties first, try get the UDM, AIC or NFP on side (if they still exist by then). With the seeming rise of the ATM in this election to win 1 or 2 seats, the ANC could also look to them another potential ally, despite their social conservatism on wanting to bring back the death penalty and their tough on crime stances. After that is done, it really is difficult to say whether the ANC would prefer an alliance with the EFF or DA. The DA are in many ways closer to them in terms of policy and realpolitik, the EFF are closer to them in terms of promises. I think the DA would also far sooner see themselves in a coalition or supply and support deal with the ANC than an ANC-EFF coalition.

An ANC-EFF coalition would be the DA's worst nightmare, and would scare the sh*t out of the capitalist overlords over in the US and Europe. An ANC-DA coalition, on the other hand, could be the last straw for a lot of young and working class black voters.

Any major power to the EFF would be the death nail of the idea of the rainbow nation. It's less that the DA would be crying to some stupid idea of capitalist overlords, it's that the EFF are an actively dangerous party who in the past have advocated killing people which does nothing but radicalise the people of South Africa along ethnic lines.

[New Socialist South Africa]

... or the DA. If I know the ANC they will probably try build a coalition with the smaller parties first, try get the UDM, AIC or NFP on side (if they still exist by then). With the seeming rise of the ATM in this election to win 1 or 2 seats, the ANC could also look to them another potential ally, despite their social conservatism on wanting to bring back the death penalty and their tough on crime stances. After that is done, it really is difficult to say whether the ANC would prefer an alliance with the EFF or DA. The DA are in many ways closer to them in terms of policy and realpolitik, the EFF are closer to them in terms of promises. I think the DA would also far sooner see themselves in a coalition or supply and support deal with the ANC than an ANC-EFF coalition.

An ANC-EFF coalition would be the DA's worst nightmare, and would scare the sh*t out of the capitalist overlords over in the US and Europe. An ANC-DA coalition, on the other hand, could be the last straw for a lot of young and working class black voters.

Any major power to the EFF would be the death nail of the idea of the rainbow nation. It's less that the DA would be crying to some stupid idea of capitalist overlords, it's that the EFF are an actively dangerous party who in the past have advocated killing people which does nothing but radicalise the people of South Africa along ethnic lines.

As I have said before, I don't like or trust the EFF. The "Rainbow Nation" has always been a bit like the "American Dream" however, a lovely dream that doesn't really exist. South Africa is still a highly unequal country, and that inequality is still very evident along racial lines, with white South Africans still disproportionally wealthy and black South Africans still disproportionally poor. Until there are significant economic reforms to uplift the black South African majority, with a massive improvements to the low quality of public schooling and healthcare most working class black South Africans have to struggle with, the EFF will continue to rise. Until the challenges of inequality are seriously tackled, the EFF will continue to rise.

And the truth is that all the talk of actually engaging in significant socio-economic reform scares certain groups of people. It seems to terrify most white South Africans, a number of whom are voting for the VF+ as a result. It scares a lot of white moderates and moderate conservatives who vote DA as well. They are highly resistant to those ideas and tend to take a "go get a job" / "go create a business even if you don't have the education or resources necessary to do so" approach to the matter. The other people it seems to terrify are the American and European investors, who have always loved South Africa for its gold and other resources, and who were often happy to look the other way during Apartheid, until things got really bad. They were the ones who pressured the ANC to desist from investment in infrastructure in 1994 in favour of gutting the well-funded public sector that the fairly economically protectionist Nationalist Party had left behind. They are the same ones who scorn any ideas of economic reform, and threaten to pull funding and get credit agencies to punish the South African economy if they take such reforms.

I preferred the SRWP in this election because they pushed strong left wing economic policies while rejecting the EFF's xenophobic rhetoric in favour of protections for refugees and internationalism. Sadly, it doesn't look like they will win any seats.

I may not like the EFF, but I understand why they are popular. When there is massive economic inequality and it doesn't seem to be getting any better, and indeed just seems to be getting worse, then that is the perfect opportunity for populism to flourish. In Brazil, the US, India and the Philippines it has been right wing populism. In South Africa it has been left wing populism, and the left wing populism hasn't won - yet. If the economic situation doesn't change however, maybe one day it will.

[New Socialist South Africa]

With almost 90% of stations counted (sitting at about 88.7% right now), the results of the top ten stand as such:

1st - ANC - 57.29% - currently slightly outperforming the earlier News24 prediction, but still down about a little under 5% points
2nd - DA - 21.16% - dropping below the earlier News24 prediction slightly, facing a drop of over 1% point so far
3rd - EFF - 10.29% - breaking over 10%, a little ahead of the earlier News24 prediction
4th - IFP - 3.52% - pretty much on prediction, although might slightly outperform it once all votes are tallied, climbing slowly
5th - VF+ - 2.37% - dropping about 0.5% below the News24 prediction, but still headed for about 2.5 times their 2014 results
6th - ACDP - 0.88% - have been steadily sliding down from their early results, but will likely do somewhat better than in 2014
7th - UDM - 0.49% - hovering at almost half their previous support, will likely lose two seats but hold the other two
8th - ATM - 0.46% - the social conservative new comer has had a decent first election, likely to get two MPs
9th - Good - 0.45% - Patricia de Lille's breakaway party likely leaving with just two MPs
10th - NFP - 0.34% - dropping from 5th place to 10th, will leave with 1 or 2 MPs, has taken an absolute mauling

The other four parties that might get a seat are:

11th - AIC - 0.28% - a small breakaway from the ANC founded in 2014, looks to drop from 3 seats to 2 or 1
12th - COPE - 0.28% - the 3rd biggest party in 2009 taking yet another mauling, might get 2 seats, or just leave with 1
13th - Al Jama ah - 0.19% - An Islamic democratic party that draws most of its support from Cape Town, might get 1 seat
14th - PAC - 0.19% - the venerable granddad Pan-Africanist party founded in 1959 by Robert Sobukwe, which was the moving force behind the anti-pass campaign that led to the Sharpeville massacre by Apartheid police. Heading for just 1 seat despite its legacy. In many ways just the EFF for old people, has lost potential young voters to the EFF.

The 15th place African Secuity Congress (ASC) might squeeze in with just one seat at 0.16%, but don't count on it.

[MERIZoC]

Any major power to the EFF would be the death nail of the idea of the rainbow nation. It's less that the DA would be crying to some stupid idea of capitalist overlords, it's that the EFF are an actively dangerous party who in the past have advocated killing people which does nothing but radicalise the people of South Africa along ethnic lines.

As I have said before, I don't like or trust the EFF. The "Rainbow Nation" has always been a bit like the "American Dream" however, a lovely dream that doesn't really exist. South Africa is still a highly unequal country, and that inequality is still very evident along racial lines, with white South Africans still disproportionally wealthy and black South Africans still disproportionally poor. Until there are significant economic reforms to uplift the black South African majority, with a massive improvements to the low quality of public schooling and healthcare most working class black South Africans have to struggle with, the EFF will continue to rise. Until the challenges of inequality are seriously tackled, the EFF will continue to rise.

And the truth is that all the talk of actually engaging in significant socio-economic reform scares certain groups of people. It seems to terrify most white South Africans, a number of whom are voting for the VF+ as a result. It scares a lot of white moderates and moderate conservatives who vote DA as well. They are highly resistant to those ideas and tend to take a "go get a job" / "go create a business even if you don't have the education or resources necessary to do so" approach to the matter. The other people it seems to terrify are the American and European investors, who have always loved South Africa for its gold and other resources, and who were often happy to look the other way during Apartheid, until things got really bad. They were the ones who pressured the ANC to desist from investment in infrastructure in 1994 in favour of gutting the well-funded public sector that the fairly economically protectionist Nationalist Party had left behind. They are the same ones who scorn any ideas of economic reform, and threaten to pull funding and get credit agencies to punish the South African economy if they take such reforms.

I preferred the SRWP in this election because they pushed strong left wing economic policies while rejecting the EFF's xenophobic rhetoric in favour of protections for refugees and internationalism. Sadly, it doesn't look like they will win any seats.

I may not like the EFF, but I understand why they are popular. When there is massive economic inequality and it doesn't seem to be getting any better, and indeed just seems to be getting worse, then that is the perfect opportunity for populism to flourish. In Brazil, the US, India and the Philippines it has been right wing populism. In South Africa it has been left wing populism, and the left wing populism hasn't won - yet. If the economic situation doesn't change however, maybe one day it will.

EFF have their issues but they aren't xenophobic. They're the only major party that's been pushing back against the xenophobia, the attacks on migrants, pushing instead for pan-africanism and more open borders. As Malema said, "Africa is a country".

I will say its funny as fuck to see a white south african (the other guy, not you) pissing their pants at EFF and crying about the "rainbow nation" when they enjoy so much privilege in the most unequal country in the world.

I would have preferred SWRP because I don't think EFF is actually committed to building socialism, but they ran a shit campaign, not even trying to win. NUMSA has what, 350,000 members? If they cant mobilize at least that many votes its embarrassing.

[New Socialist South Africa]

As I have said before, I don't like or trust the EFF. The "Rainbow Nation" has always been a bit like the "American Dream" however, a lovely dream that doesn't really exist. South Africa is still a highly unequal country, and that inequality is still very evident along racial lines, with white South Africans still disproportionally wealthy and black South Africans still disproportionally poor. Until there are significant economic reforms to uplift the black South African majority, with a massive improvements to the low quality of public schooling and healthcare most working class black South Africans have to struggle with, the EFF will continue to rise. Until the challenges of inequality are seriously tackled, the EFF will continue to rise.

And the truth is that all the talk of actually engaging in significant socio-economic reform scares certain groups of people. It seems to terrify most white South Africans, a number of whom are voting for the VF+ as a result. It scares a lot of white moderates and moderate conservatives who vote DA as well. They are highly resistant to those ideas and tend to take a "go get a job" / "go create a business even if you don't have the education or resources necessary to do so" approach to the matter. The other people it seems to terrify are the American and European investors, who have always loved South Africa for its gold and other resources, and who were often happy to look the other way during Apartheid, until things got really bad. They were the ones who pressured the ANC to desist from investment in infrastructure in 1994 in favour of gutting the well-funded public sector that the fairly economically protectionist Nationalist Party had left behind. They are the same ones who scorn any ideas of economic reform, and threaten to pull funding and get credit agencies to punish the South African economy if they take such reforms.

I preferred the SRWP in this election because they pushed strong left wing economic policies while rejecting the EFF's xenophobic rhetoric in favour of protections for refugees and internationalism. Sadly, it doesn't look like they will win any seats.

I may not like the EFF, but I understand why they are popular. When there is massive economic inequality and it doesn't seem to be getting any better, and indeed just seems to be getting worse, then that is the perfect opportunity for populism to flourish. In Brazil, the US, India and the Philippines it has been right wing populism. In South Africa it has been left wing populism, and the left wing populism hasn't won - yet. If the economic situation doesn't change however, maybe one day it will.

EFF have their issues but they aren't xenophobic. They're the only major party that's been pushing back against the xenophobia, the attacks on migrants, pushing instead for pan-africanism and more open borders. As Malema said, "Africa is a country".

I will say its funny as fuck to see a white south african (the other guy, not you) pissing their pants at EFF and crying about the "rainbow nation" when they enjoy so much privilege in the most unequal country in the world.

I would have preferred SWRP because I don't think EFF is actually committed to building socialism, but they ran a shit campaign, not even trying to win. NUMSA has what, 350,000 members? If they cant mobilize at least that many votes its embarrassing.

Unfortunately the EFF isn't consistent. Malema has spoken about 'Africa being a country', but then the EFF manifesto also vowed to "secure our borders", something all three major parties, and a lot of parties, ran on. The 'secure our borders' campaign is a very obvious dog whistle to more xenophobic voters about keeping out a certain type of immigrant. It certainly isn't about keeping out wealthy and skilled immigrants from Europe, the US or industrialised nations, and South Africans know that. That's part of the issue with the EFF and Malema, they are highly opportunistic, and have a habit of flipping on a lot of issues or speaking out of both sides of their mouth when it suits them. Malema is particularly bad at that: switching from "I would kill for Zuma" to "Zuma must fall", from "Mbeki was the worst president South Africa has ever had" to "Mbeki was a great president", from "we must support Mugabe" to "Mugabe must be removed" and from "we support Pravin" to going after Pravin.

I was discussing the point on NUMSA and the SRWP with a friend today, it seems a lot of NUMSA affiliates have either not gone out and voted or have voted ANC or EFF. I think there is just a disconnect between working class people joining a trade union and those working class people voting for a political party founded by their trade union leaders. I don't know why, but it is what it is. I kind of didn't expect them to win any seats, though I hoped for one or two. The party put up posters and released a quality manifesto, but maybe a lot of working class people just didn't care as much as the core support group and the leftist academics like myself and a group of others who really liked them. I don't know, it is what it is.

I sometimes don't think the EFF is as bad as some people portray it, but I am very wary of it, and I'm certainly not as pro-EFF as a lot of frustrated young people are. Malema is the ultimate political opportunist, you can never quite predict what he will do next.

[Cekoviu]

As I have said before, I don't like or trust the EFF. The "Rainbow Nation" has always been a bit like the "American Dream" however, a lovely dream that doesn't really exist. South Africa is still a highly unequal country, and that inequality is still very evident along racial lines, with white South Africans still disproportionally wealthy and black South Africans still disproportionally poor. Until there are significant economic reforms to uplift the black South African majority, with a massive improvements to the low quality of public schooling and healthcare most working class black South Africans have to struggle with, the EFF will continue to rise. Until the challenges of inequality are seriously tackled, the EFF will continue to rise.

And the truth is that all the talk of actually engaging in significant socio-economic reform scares certain groups of people. It seems to terrify most white South Africans, a number of whom are voting for the VF+ as a result. It scares a lot of white moderates and moderate conservatives who vote DA as well. They are highly resistant to those ideas and tend to take a "go get a job" / "go create a business even if you don't have the education or resources necessary to do so" approach to the matter. The other people it seems to terrify are the American and European investors, who have always loved South Africa for its gold and other resources, and who were often happy to look the other way during Apartheid, until things got really bad. They were the ones who pressured the ANC to desist from investment in infrastructure in 1994 in favour of gutting the well-funded public sector that the fairly economically protectionist Nationalist Party had left behind. They are the same ones who scorn any ideas of economic reform, and threaten to pull funding and get credit agencies to punish the South African economy if they take such reforms.

I preferred the SRWP in this election because they pushed strong left wing economic policies while rejecting the EFF's xenophobic rhetoric in favour of protections for refugees and internationalism. Sadly, it doesn't look like they will win any seats.

I may not like the EFF, but I understand why they are popular. When there is massive economic inequality and it doesn't seem to be getting any better, and indeed just seems to be getting worse, then that is the perfect opportunity for populism to flourish. In Brazil, the US, India and the Philippines it has been right wing populism. In South Africa it has been left wing populism, and the left wing populism hasn't won - yet. If the economic situation doesn't change however, maybe one day it will.

EFF have their issues but they aren't xenophobic. They're the only major party that's been pushing back against the xenophobia, the attacks on migrants, pushing instead for pan-africanism and more open borders. As Malema said, "Africa is a country".

I will say its funny as fuck to see a white south african (the other guy, not you) pissing their pants at EFF and crying about the "rainbow nation" when they enjoy so much privilege in the most unequal country in the world.

I would have preferred SWRP because I don't think EFF is actually committed to building socialism, but they ran a shit campaign, not even trying to win. NUMSA has what, 350,000 members? If they cant mobilize at least that many votes its embarrassing.

Heloin is a woman from Zimbabwe, lol.

[MERIZoC]

EFF have their issues but they aren't xenophobic. They're the only major party that's been pushing back against the xenophobia, the attacks on migrants, pushing instead for pan-africanism and more open borders. As Malema said, "Africa is a country".

I will say its funny as fuck to see a white south african (the other guy, not you) pissing their pants at EFF and crying about the "rainbow nation" when they enjoy so much privilege in the most unequal country in the world.

I would have preferred SWRP because I don't think EFF is actually committed to building socialism, but they ran a shit campaign, not even trying to win. NUMSA has what, 350,000 members? If they cant mobilize at least that many votes its embarrassing.

Heloin is a woman from Zimbabwe, lol.

Immensely different, then

[Cekoviu]

Heloin is a woman from Zimbabwe, lol.

Immensely different, then

I mean, yeah? Because she wouldn't directly benefit from the DA being elected, nor would she stand to lose something from either the EFF or ANC being elected.

[MERIZoC]

EFF have their issues but they aren't xenophobic. They're the only major party that's been pushing back against the xenophobia, the attacks on migrants, pushing instead for pan-africanism and more open borders. As Malema said, "Africa is a country".

I will say its funny as fuck to see a white south african (the other guy, not you) pissing their pants at EFF and crying about the "rainbow nation" when they enjoy so much privilege in the most unequal country in the world.

I would have preferred SWRP because I don't think EFF is actually committed to building socialism, but they ran a shit campaign, not even trying to win. NUMSA has what, 350,000 members? If they cant mobilize at least that many votes its embarrassing.

Unfortunately the EFF isn't consistent. Malema has spoken about 'Africa being a country', but then the EFF manifesto also vowed to "secure our borders", something all three major parties, and a lot of parties, ran on. The 'secure our borders' campaign is a very obvious dog whistle to more xenophobic voters about keeping out a certain type of immigrant. It certainly isn't about keeping out wealthy and skilled immigrants from Europe, the US or industrialised nations, and South Africans know that.

Where do you see this? I searched the manifesto and found nothing on that, but it does say "The EFF government will fight for a borderless Africa and a single currency in the medium to long-term", which is in accord with the rhetoric on the campaign trail. https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/elections/2120339/malema-wants-a-south-africa-without-borders/

[Thermodolia]

Immensely different, then

I mean, yeah? Because she wouldn't directly benefit from the DA being elected, nor would she stand to lose something from either the EFF or ANC being elected.

Besides she lives in the states anyway

[Cekoviu]

I mean, yeah? Because she wouldn't directly benefit from the DA being elected, nor would she stand to lose something from either the EFF or ANC being elected.

Besides she lives in the states anyway

Also that.