Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States wrote:Novus America wrote:
Well by 41 their tanks were improving.
After Khalkin Gol they did begin modernize their armored forces.
Also German tanks in the Battle of France were inferior to British and French ones.
Air power goes a very long way.
Also the Soviets were not sending their best tanks to the Far East.
Many older Soviet tanks were crap too.
The Japanese destroyed a good number of Soviet tanks at Khalkin Gol with anti tank guns, grenades and aircraft as well. Soviet tanks did not do that well at Khalkin Gol.
So air superiority and sheer numbers should be enough. The Soviets at Khalkin Gol won, but only with numerical superiority and pretty heavy casualties. Only a small Japanese force attacked there.
And at the very least the Japanese Navy could blockade/seize or destroy Vladivostok, which would be a big blow to Soviet logistics.
Plus forcing the Soviets to fight a two front war against enemies with a larger combined population should have allowed them to exhaust Soviet manpower.
The Soviets were actually beginning to run out of people to fight by the end of 1943, fighting the Germans and their European allies alone.
Even a stalemate in the Far East could have cost the Soviets critical manpower losses.
The Soviets did not have unlimited people.
On what oil would those Japanese planes fly?
Well if there is no Japanese attack on China and latter Indo China, there is no oil embargo.
If Japan is fights the US (at all), and China, and the British Empire they obviously still lose.
No matter what.
The only way I see them being able to fight the Soviets along with the Germans is by dedicating all their resources to it.
That means avoiding or ending the war in China before the attack.
And of course no attack on the US.
The US was willing to lift the oil embargo (obviously only before Pearl Harbor) if Japan pulled back to its pre 1937 borders.
If Japan had a better Prime minister than Konoe in 1937, maybe.
That would be the only way.