What will become of secularism? Will it grow, fade, or will the religious demographics of the future be not so different than those of today?
These days, many say that the future of secularism is at risk because religious people tend to procreate more so than secular people. The statistics back this claim up, but it's worth a reminder that religion is not genetic. It does not necessarily "take." If two Asians have a child, the child will always be of Asian descent. But when two Muslims have a child, the child may not become a Muslim, or may abandon the religion at a later time in their life.
I'm an atheist, my parents were Roman Catholic. Most atheists, agnostics, and "nones" I know came from religious families. Just because religious people procreate does not guarantee their success in perpetuating their religion.
How else can secularism spread if not through procreation? I would argue that secularism has an intrinsic allure. That many are attracted to the opportunity to do things their religion forbids. And when it comes to migrants from religious backgrounds living in the West, those who keep entirely to their own groups seem to be fewer in number than those who integrate.
As an American living in Germany, I have encountered many refugees and migrants over the last few years. I noticed quite a lot of people from Muslim backgrounds would eat, drink, and smoke during Ramadan. I've seen a great deal of women from Arab countries that do not wear hijabs at all (obviously not all Arabs are Muslims, some are Christians, Jews, secular, or something other, but the vast majority do come from Muslim families). And though I live in a city with a huge refugee population, I see at most one niqab or burqa for every thousand people I pass on the streets.
I contend that secularism is not in such great danger as some think, that far more migrants in the West integrate than not, that a not insignificant amount of religious people's children will become secular, and that there are more adults that abandon religion than convert from secularism to a religion.
I further contend that secularism is under-reported on surveys because most surveys do not distinguish the religiously devout from the nominally religious. There are many who believe in the existence of God but who have no interest in the rules of the religion they still loosely identify with. These type of people will go to church on Christmas, pray only when their loved one gets cancer, either doesn't believe in hell or thinks only people like Ted Bundy and Hitler go to hell, and that you'll go to heaven as long as you're good. Are these people not functionally secular already? I would say they are, that their beliefs are more of a cultural vestige than actual religion. So with that in mind, secularism's numbers are looking strong.
So what do you think about the future of secularism? And what do you want to happen?
