¡Voto Plus Ultra 2: Boogaloo Eléctrico!(Spanish Election)

[Shrillland]

Here we go again...

The April 28 election ended in absolute deadlock. Although the PSOE got a respectable lead, they and their traditional rivals, PP, were stunted by the growth of C's on the right and Unidos Podemos on the left. The only way a governing coalition could form was between PSOE and Podemos..and that was the start of the mess. Negotiations dragged on for months because, while Podemos and its leader, Pablo Iglesias, wanted a full-fledged coalition with 4-6 seats in the cabinet, PSOE and the current Spanish Government President(Spain's title for PM), Pedro Sanchez, wanted a mere C&S agreement with Podemos. Neither side would give way, so Spainards now have to go back to the polls on Sunday, November 10, to settle this whole mess. Polls have shown that Spainards are tired of the infighting with PSOE and PP both rising in the polls while Podemos has slumped and C's has gone down by several points. Meanwhile, the right-populist Vox is slowly recovering from collapsed numbers back in the late spring, but they still aren't likely to gain seats. Meanwhile, Podemos co-founder Inigo Errejon has turned his regional Mas Madrid party into the national Mas Pais(More Country) by merging it with the Valencian-interest CC, Aragonian-interest CHA, and Equo, a fledgling green party that used to be part of Unidas Podemos, leading to Podemos defections and a further split vote.

The Congress has 350 seats, 348 of which are decided using closed-list PR with D'Hondt counts and a 3% threshold whilst Ceuta and Melilla use FPTP for the remaining two. The Senate has 265 seats, 208 chosen by open-list block voting and the rest by regional legislatures. Naturally, it's whoever leads in the Congress that forms the government. Now then, let's meet the parties(that will likely cross the threshold)!

Spanish Socialist Workers Party(PSOE)-led by current President Pedro Sanchez: Centre-left, Social Democratic, Pro-European

People's Party(PP)-led by Pablo Casado: Centre-right to Right Wing, Pro-European, Economic Liberal, Liberal Conservative, Monarchist

Citizens Party or Ciudadanos(Cs)-led by Albert Rivera: Centre to Centre-right, Populist, Secularist, Alternately Nationalist and Post-Nationalist, Liberal, Pro-European

United We Can or Unidos Podemos-led by Pablo Iglesias: Left Wing, Democratic Socialist, Anti-Austerity, Left Populist

Vox-led by Santiago Abascal: Right Wing, Populist, Ultra-nationalist, Social Conservative, National Conservative, Soft Eurosceptic, Anti-Islamic

Republican Left of Catalonia(ERC)-led by Gabriel Rufian: Centre-left to Left, Catalan Separatist, Eurofederalist, Republican, Social Democratic, Left Wing Nationalist

More Country or Mas Pais-led by Inigo Errejon: Centre-left to Left, Progressive, Eco-Socialist, Green, Social Democratic, Feminist, Participatory Democratic

And there are many others to choose from as well, primarily regionalist in nature. So, what say you, NSG?

I was with Podemos, but this time around, I have to support PSOE. Spain needs movement at this point.

[Trumptonium1]

Gibraltar is British, but, in solidarity with freedom and sovereignty fighters across Europe, Vox it is. Their rise from 1% to 16% in the polls over the last 4 months has been inspiring and I proudly saw I followed Abascal before he went mainstream outside of Spain!

PP decided to copy Les Republicains and go the half-assed way of the most paltry and insignificant right pivots ever to stray away from right-wing pasokification, but so far in both cases this has only extended so far as to make some vague burqa comments, lower migration and no future european integration. In reality everyone knows they still kiss Merkel's ass.

As for Spanish politics going right, I don't think society will pull to the right per se. What I do think is that some people on the left may start supporting PP in efforts of pushing Spanish unity and stopping the deadlock over the country. I also think that an increasing portion of the vote will go to Vox, giving Spain its own version of LegaNord et al.

There's no reason Spain is immune to European political trends.

Vox currently commands around 2-3% of the vote, giving them anywhere between 550k to 750k votes on the last few turnouts. This is enough to get a seat in the lower house, and perhaps even more than that. A half-million core base is a good base to launch their campaign from for the next Spanish election in some 5-8 years time. Although I think Vox is doing the wrong thing by no-platforming Catalonia and refusing to field candidates there - it's even more likely that Catalonian PP supporters would go for Vox than anywhere else in the country. That's the place they should start campaigning from.

3-4.5% appears to be a goldilocks zone - those are all the results that Lega Nord, UKIP and AfD got before they became much larger in the subsequent election. They just need the base to move forward from.

Vox is currently polling more for next year's European election - just under 5%, which would give them an MEP seat and potentially a million votes, as well as cementing their place in the top 5 Spanish parties by vote. That's a very good base. They're also very urban just like Lega Nord - their core support comes from the capital Madrid. They received 3.64% of the vote in the 2014 European elections in the city, becoming the fourth largest party. That means at levels of 5% based on the 2014 election, Vox should be looking at 10-12.5% of the vote in Madrid next year.

Vox is something to watch.

[Dresderstan]

I think PSOE will win the election and officially hold more seats than the PP, while getting C&S from Unidos Podemos. And yet polling is showing the big three parties (PP, Cs, and Unidos Podemos) lagging behind while Vox has made big gains and is just behind Unidos Podemos.

[Shrillland]

I think PSOE will win the election and officially hold more seats than the PP, while getting C&S from Unidos Podemos. And yet polling is showing the big three parties (PP, Cs, and Unidos Podemos) lagging behind while Vox has made big gains and is just behind Unidos Podemos.

Well, that's because most Vox voters are PP defectors as is Abascal himself. Far right politics are on the rise everywhere, Spain just didn't have a party for them until now. Going from 0 seats to 40 is pretty impressive.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

Spaniard here. It’s always a choice between a turd sandwich and a giant douche. Osea, between PP and PSOE.

[Shrillland]

Spaniard here. It’s always a choice between a turd sandwich and a giant douche. Osea, between PP and PSOE.

That's elections everywhere, I suppose. You more of a Podemos person?

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

Spaniard here. It’s always a choice between a turd sandwich and a giant douche. Osea, between PP and PSOE.

That's elections everywhere, I suppose. I'm honestly surprised that no Green Party has ever stood up on its own, they'd probably do well.

Slow to change. I’d like IU (Izquierda Unida) to get stronger but I don’t see that happening any time soon. I was hopeful for Podemos but... yeah.

[Rotar]

¿hay monárquicos en este grupo? Creo que preferiría una monarquía a Sánchez en este momento, aunque Unidos Podemos sería mi elección si tuviera que votar por un partido político. Disculpe mi mal español, estoy usando todo el español que puedo recordar de la universidad.

[Shrillland]

erm...NSG rules are that posts have to be in English unless they're in a specific language thread. That being said, that's kinds of how I feel as well.

[Shrillland]

Here's some election news from the past week:

ERC's saying they'll support a PSOE government if a "brave left" emerges out of the elections: http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190222/iu-votara-marzo-si-concurre-elecciones-generales-coalicion-podemos/1888500.shtml

Also, IU is going to hold a vote in about two weeks on whether they'll be part of the Unidos Podemos coalition: http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190222/iu-votara-marzo-si-concurre-elecciones-generales-coalicion-podemos/1888500.shtml

[Kowani]

If Izquierda Unida gets anywhere, I’ll be fuckin’ happy.

[Shrillland]

Now for this week's national election-based news from TVE.

Vox members have been meeting with members of Trump's cabinet to discuss their similarities: http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190302/representantes-vox-se-reunen-miembros-administracion-trump/1893801.shtml

Ciudadanos has created a "Liberal Feminism" manifesto that also attacks inclusive language used by PSOE and Podemos: http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190303/ciudadanos-presenta-decalogo-feminismo-liberal-feminismo-no-decir-portavozas-cambiar-politicas/1894180.shtml

[Bienenhalde]

I support the People's Party.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

If Izquierda Unida gets anywhere, I’ll be fuckin’ happy.

I honestly wouldn’t mind IU getting recognized more, tbh.

[Shrillland]

If Izquierda Unida gets anywhere, I’ll be fuckin’ happy.

I honestly wouldn’t mind IU getting recognized more, tbh.

Speaking of them, the coalition vote's now going until Sunday, so if there are any IU members looking, get on your phone and vote, you bastards!

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

I honestly wouldn’t mind IU getting recognized more, tbh.

Speaking of them, the coalition vote's now going until Sunday, so if there are any IU members looking, get on your phone and vote, you bastards!

I wish I could, really. But I’ve been gone from Spain for over a decade now so, iirc, I can’t vote anymore.

[Shrillland]

Another week's passed, so here's some more updates from the campaign trail.

Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera has ruled out any possibility of joining a PSOE-led coalition with Sanchez at its helm: http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190311/entrevista-albert-rivera-telediario/1900002.shtml

This actually hamstrings PSOE's chances, since Podemos is the only national party that could join a coalition in this landscape. I suppose they could just get C&S agreements with the regional parties, but I can only see them getting 165-68 under the current poll numbers if they get all of them minus ERC, which no national party would touch with a 10-foot pole at this point. I also doubt that Vox would join a coalition with them.

IU has voted to join Unidos Podemos with 61% approving it: http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190311/bases-iu-apoyan-alianza-podemos-generales-oposicion-tercio-militancia/1899843.shtml

And the JEC has told Catalonian President Quim Torra to remove the separatist flags and yellow ribbons from public buildings until after the election after Ciudadanos said that their presence violated official government electoral neutrality laws. http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190311/junta-electoral-da-plazo-dos-dias-torra-para-ordene-quitar-esteladas-lazos-edificios-generalitat/1900020.shtml

[East Gondwana]

Spain's left seems to be holding up better than most other European democracies, so it will be interesting to see where this goes.
I'm hoping for PSOE and UP to pull through.

[Western Vale Confederacy]

Spain's left seems to be holding up better than most other European democracies, so it will be interesting to see where this goes.
I'm hoping for PSOE and UP to pull through.

The Iberian left as a whole has been doing a decent job for the most part from what I can gather from my family members, however, right-wing populism remains on the rise nonetheless.

[First American Empire]

I don't really support Catalonian separatism, but I'm supporting ERC anyway because they're the only Eurofederalists running.

[Liriena]

It'd be kinda cool to see a left-wing coalition led by Podemos instead of the PSOE.

[Major-Tom]

The PP is essentially a mafia under the guise of a political party, Podemos is ineffective at best, Vox peddles far-right nonsense reminiscent of the Franco era, the C's are the dictionary definition of sellouts, and the PSOE is also ineffective and has a tattered history.

Shit. Spain, y'all kinda fucked. I'm just hoping Sanchez can form a coalition, it's the best of the shitty options.

[Baltenstein]

The PP is essentially a mafia under the guise of a political party, Podemos is ineffective at best, Vox peddles far-right nonsense reminiscent of the Franco era, the C's are the dictionary definition of sellouts, and the PSOE is also ineffective and has a tattered history.

Shit. Spain, y'all kinda fucked. I'm just hoping Sanchez can form a coalition, it's the best of the shitty options.

A Dirty Sanchez, if you will.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

It'd be kinda cool to see a left-wing coalition led by Podemos instead of the PSOE.

Spain suffers from the same syndrome the US does. Two parties: Shit sandwich or giant douche. PSOE or PP. I’m not holding my breath here, mind you, but if the left gets the advantage, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

[Shrillland]

It'd be kinda cool to see a left-wing coalition led by Podemos instead of the PSOE.

Spain suffers from the same syndrome the US does. Two parties: Shit sandwich or giant douche. PSOE or PP. I’m not holding my breath here, mind you, but if the left gets the advantage, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

On a big level, yes. You guys at least have PR, otherwise you'd have no Podemos, Cs, Vox, or regional parties in the Cortes at all expect possibly in Catalonia.