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Hungary's new huge birth rate subsidies

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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These policies...

Are good, I'd like them in my country
43
42%
Are good, but I don't think they will work as intended
23
23%
Are bad because they are a waste of money
13
13%
Are bad because we don't need more children and Hungary should adapt to fewer people
11
11%
Are bad because we don't need more children and Hungary should invite immigrants
12
12%
 
Total votes : 102

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Western Vale Confederacy
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Ex-Nation

Postby Western Vale Confederacy » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:13 pm

Thermodolia wrote:Don’t all these “Fuck for the nation” things never end up working?


They CAN work, but such plans never come close to immigration in terms of plugging manpower shortages.

Also, those plans ALWAYS forget that the LGBT can play a part in raising the nation’s future generations with adoption and surrogacy. An extra 3% is still 3%.

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El-Amin Caliphate
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Postby El-Amin Caliphate » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:26 pm

Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores wrote:
Trumptonium1 wrote:Hungary today announced the most extreme natalist policies ever seen by any national government suffering a decline in birth rates and a demographic crisis.

The move was a surprise and no such policies were hinted beforehand, nor were they predicted because Orban already won an election in April last year and doesn't have any need for electioneering, especially with election four years away and his party sitting at just under 60% in opinion polls.

Regardless, Viktor Orban's government today saw "a pressing need" to 'ensure the survival of the Hungarian people and nation' and announced new initiatives to raise the birth rates as soon as possible. Among others, these notably include:

1) A government subsidy of $9030 US dollars towards a seven-seater car for new mothers giving birth to their fourth child (56% of Hungarian GDP per capita, 59% of Hungarian average wage and 143% of Hungarian minimum wage)

2) A lifetime (and backdated) income tax exemption for families with four or more children. This is regardless of income, and includes millionaires et al.

3) Interest-free 10 year loans of 10 million forint (27k GBP, 36k USD) for newly married 21-35 year olds, which will be entirely forgiven if the family has three children.

Obviously (/presumably) 2 will no longer apply once birth rates are at higher levels, as it is impossible to imagine Hungary could operate with a 'lifetime' tax exemption once all middle class and up families have their fourth child.

The incentives will not be available for non-Hungarian citizens, and Hungary also plans to make the application process for naturalisation more stringent so that immigrants do not abuse the system.




Other governments have used similar incentives to raise birth rates. It can be argued that UK Child Benefits and US Child Tax Credits are a form of such, however, they are more of a discount for having a child rather than a literal incentive, because it still costs more to raise a child than the government rewards you for having one.

The most notable incentives have come from Japan (where it has worked, but not as far as hoped), Russia (where it has definitely worked) and Poland (where it is recent but signs are it's working).

I won't attempt to explain Japanese tax and spend incentives for having children because Japan is notoriously bureaucratic, but more or less Japan is noteworthy for giving a blank child benefit of 235 dollars per child per month to all parents. The Japanese fertility rate reached a record low of 1.26 in 2005, and today increased to 1.44 (slightly down from 1.45 last year). Japan went from the lowest fertility rate in the world in 2005 to more or less the European average.

Russia has more extensive government help for children, including an entire national holiday to fertility 1 day in September (and Putin is not hiding what he wants adults to do on that day), lotteries for parents and a monthly child benefit. Russia's fertility rates have risen substantially - from the lowest peacetime fertility rate in the world of 1.17 in 1999, the year of Putin's rise to power, to 1.75 as of last year. In comparison the United States is now at 1.8, so Russia has risen a lot. It is now higher than all EU countries bar three.

Poland more recently under a conservative government have introduced large government subsidies of 500 PLN (101 GBP, 130 USD) per month, or just under 10% of the monthly average wage, for each family with two or more children where at least one adult works full-time, per child. So far there are signs it has risen from 1.4 to 1.5, but the policy is only in its third year.

Of course there is no guarantee that these subsidies and tax incentives are resulting in these rises in fertility rates, but given the general trend of comparable countries, it's really hard to not argue there is an outright correlation.

So far Hungary has a fertility rate of 1.4, the joint 3rd lowest in the world.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hung ... SKCN1PZ0I0

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47192612

Hungary and Europe need to grow their own traditional native ethnic population groups.

*"want", not "need".
Trumptonium1 wrote:
Puldania wrote:Someone said it as a joke, but it is actually very likely that the nature of the Hungarian language dissuades most immigrants from staying there at all.


Probably true, but EU law means knowledge of Hungarian language (or any other national language of host country) has no relevance in determining someone's rights to access welfare of said country.

As in, you don't need to know a word of English to have the legal right to have welfare in the UK.

That's somewhat good, but it's kinds shooting oneself in the foot. How are you gonna get welfare if you can't even talk to someone in order to get it? Yeah, translators exist, but still.
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Sirocca
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Ex-Nation

Postby Sirocca » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:26 pm

Christ Triumphant wrote:
Western Vale Confederacy wrote:I don’t exactly need a romantic vacation to bonk my theoretical female partner into pregnancy.


Yeah, I find it a bit ridiculous, too. Apparently they're having some success with it. Surely there must be a better way...

If they don't want to go so far as this Hungarian method, they might try subsidizing childcare services, as one of the major reasons affluent Western couples are having less children is that both parents are often working, and having multiple children puts quite a strain work-life.


Maybe automation of work?

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Costa Fierro
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Postby Costa Fierro » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:57 pm

Oh good, more welfare queens.

No surprises here as to who foots the bill for this.
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Costa Fierro
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Postby Costa Fierro » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:58 pm

Western Vale Confederacy wrote:I don’t expect any sane migrant to learn Hungarian anyways, so I guess these natalist policies make sense.


No natalist policies make sense. Having children for the sake of having children is moronic. And God help the man who has to pay child support for four or more children.
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Costa Fierro
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Postby Costa Fierro » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:03 pm

Saiwania wrote:This is to be applauded in my view, but I suspect that it could be even more effective if abortion were to be made illegal and all if not more contraceptives were banished from the country on a temporary basis.


Why? You'd need to have children to get these "benefits". More to the point, what's to stop women having more than four kids to more than one father? The problem with natalists like you is that you don't think about the quality of life for the child, just pumping more of them out and forcing half the population to work harder and pay more for nothing that directly benefits them.

People like you should be disenfranchised.
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Esternial
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Postby Esternial » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:08 pm

Seems like Hungary's afraid of running out of enough taxpayers in a few decades, huh.

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Yusseria
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Postby Yusseria » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:09 pm

Costa Fierro wrote:
Saiwania wrote:This is to be applauded in my view, but I suspect that it could be even more effective if abortion were to be made illegal and all if not more contraceptives were banished from the country on a temporary basis.


Why? You'd need to have children to get these "benefits". More to the point, what's to stop women having more than four kids to more than one father? The problem with natalists like you is that you don't think about the quality of life for the child, just pumping more of them out and forcing half the population to work harder and pay more for nothing that directly benefits them.

People like you should be disenfranchised.

The irony here is that you could say roughly the same thing about pro-mass immigration types.
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Novus America
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Postby Novus America » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:16 pm

Costa Fierro wrote:
Western Vale Confederacy wrote:I don’t expect any sane migrant to learn Hungarian anyways, so I guess these natalist policies make sense.


No natalist policies make sense. Having children for the sake of having children is moronic. And God help the man who has to pay child support for four or more children.


Unless people have children there will be nobody to support you when you get old.

Long term a child is going to pay more in taxes than the parents were paid in subsidies.

Unless something is done there will be a deflationary spiral and economic collapse when there are more propels retired and unable to work because of age than workers.
Last edited by Novus America on Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Costa Fierro
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Postby Costa Fierro » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:17 pm

Yusseria wrote:The irony here is that you could say roughly the same thing about pro-mass immigration types.


Immigration has benefits. Pumping out more kids without any kind of thought as to who raises them or the quality of life they would have doesn't benefit anyone.

More to the point, having half the population that already is a net consumer of taxpayer money consume even more money from a dwindling tax base on the false pretense that natalist policies would increase said base is complete and utter idiocy. History has shown us that said policies don't work, which is ironic given that one of the greatest criticisms of welfare systems by right-wing nationalists is their exploitation by foreigners.
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Novus America
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Postby Novus America » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:17 pm

Esternial wrote:Seems like Hungary's afraid of running out of enough taxpayers in a few decades, huh.


Sure, but that is a very valid concern.
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Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. Pragmatism is my ideology.

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Esternial
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Democratic Socialists

Postby Esternial » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:18 pm

Novus America wrote:
Costa Fierro wrote:
No natalist policies make sense. Having children for the sake of having children is moronic. And God help the man who has to pay child support for four or more children.


Unless people have children there will be nobody to support you when you get old.

Long term a child is going to pay more in taxes than the parents were paid in subsidies.

Unless something is done there will be a deflationary spiral and economic collapse when there are more propels retired and unable to work because of age than workers.

Basically a pyramid scheme.

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Reichsstaaten von Germania
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Postby Reichsstaaten von Germania » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:20 pm

El-Amin Caliphate wrote:
Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores wrote:Hungary and Europe need to grow their own traditional native ethnic population groups.

*"want", not "need".
Trumptonium1 wrote:
Probably true, but EU law means knowledge of Hungarian language (or any other national language of host country) has no relevance in determining someone's rights to access welfare of said country.

As in, you don't need to know a word of English to have the legal right to have welfare in the UK.

That's somewhat good, but it's kinds shooting oneself in the foot. How are you gonna get welfare if you can't even talk to someone in order to get it? Yeah, translators exist, but still.


They need to preserve their culture and ethnicity
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Costa Fierro
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Postby Costa Fierro » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:21 pm

Novus America wrote:Unless people have children there will be nobody to support you when you get old.


Your children will not give a fuck about you when you're old. If anything you'll be an inconvenience to them so they'll biff you into a rest home, assuming of course you're not casually wheeled into a hospital room and euthanised so that the fruit of your loins claims their inheritance earlier.

Long term a child is going to pay more in taxes than the parents were paid in subsidies.


Only if the child is male.

Unless something is done there will be a deflationary spiral and economic collapse when there are more propels retired and unable to work because of age than workers.


That is going to happen regardless of how many children are born. There's no point going on about the economic argument if you have children that will never have a job thanks to automation.
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The Great-German Empire
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Postby The Great-German Empire » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:23 pm

Definitely a good thing. Should be implemented in other low-fertility countries as well, like Germany, and enhanced in places like Japan. A strong core birth rate is one of the pillars of an independent future.
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Reichsstaaten von Germania
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Postby Reichsstaaten von Germania » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:24 pm

Completely agreed.
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Costa Fierro
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Postby Costa Fierro » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:25 pm

The Great-German Empire wrote:Definitely a good thing. Should be implemented in other low-fertility countries as well, like Germany, and enhanced in places like Japan. A strong core birth rate is one of the pillars of an independent future.


Independence from what?
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Reichsstaaten von Germania
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Postby Reichsstaaten von Germania » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:26 pm

Costa Fierro wrote:
Novus America wrote:Unless people have children there will be nobody to support you when you get old.


Your children will not give a fuck about you when you're old. If anything you'll be an inconvenience to them so they'll biff you into a rest home, assuming of course you're not casually wheeled into a hospital room and euthanised so that the fruit of your loins claims their inheritance earlier.

Long term a child is going to pay more in taxes than the parents were paid in subsidies.


Only if the child is male.

Unless something is done there will be a deflationary spiral and economic collapse when there are more propels retired and unable to work because of age than workers.


That is going to happen regardless of how many children are born. There's no point going on about the economic argument if you have children that will never have a job thanks to automation.



How hard did your dad beat you edge lord.
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Trumptonium1
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Postby Trumptonium1 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:29 pm

Costa Fierro wrote:
Novus America wrote:Unless people have children there will be nobody to support you when you get old.


Your children will not give a fuck about you when you're old. If anything you'll be an inconvenience to them so they'll biff you into a rest home, assuming of course you're not casually wheeled into a hospital room and euthanised so that the fruit of your loins claims their inheritance earlier.

Long term a child is going to pay more in taxes than the parents were paid in subsidies.


Only if the child is male.

Unless something is done there will be a deflationary spiral and economic collapse when there are more propels retired and unable to work because of age than workers.


That is going to happen regardless of how many children are born. There's no point going on about the economic argument if you have children that will never have a job thanks to automation.


sounds like you have personal issues rather than anything of relevance to say on the topic
Last edited by Trumptonium1 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Trumptonium1
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Postby Trumptonium1 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:32 pm

Trumptonium1 wrote:
3) Interest-free 10 year loans of 10 million forint (27k GBP, 36k USD) for newly married 21-35 year olds, which will be entirely forgiven if the family has three children.


Slight correction to my OP as per Reuters: It appears these loans already exist, but the system is being expanded and reformed. Also it's up to 40 not 35. As for loan forgiveness, half the loan will be forgiven on birth of second child and the entire loan on the third. To my understanding all three need to be born in the 10 year period.
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Costa Fierro
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Postby Costa Fierro » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:33 pm

Reichsstaaten von Germania wrote:How hard did your dad beat you edge lord.


We're making the assumption this is edgy rather than a rational argument against pointless and expensive policies.

Trumptonium1 wrote:sounds like you have personal issues rather than anything of relevance to say on the topic


I've already made criticisms of the policies elsewhere if you want to address those.
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Polish Prussian Commonwealth
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Postby Polish Prussian Commonwealth » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:34 pm

I'm just saying, the thread title sounds like the name for an explicit movie.

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Postby Salus Maior » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:35 pm

I'm a fan of policies supporting the family. So, good.

Although those bits where they're trying to make it an ethnic thing I don't care for.
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Postby New haven america » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:37 pm

Thermodolia wrote:Don’t all these “Fuck for the nation” things never end up working?

They can work, but the thing is that most of these campaigns only target the symptoms, not the actual problems.

Japan is probably the easiest and most well known example to use. Work culture is fucking horrific (12-16 hour work days on average), women are expected to become stay at home moms the moment kids are born, the government doesn't really have any maternity/paternity support in place so they leave that to the businesses who don't want to spend money and would just rather fire women for getting pregnant, housing prices are always on the rise, etc...

But why target those issues when you could just nicely ask the general population to have more kids?
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Trollzyn the Infinite
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Postby Trollzyn the Infinite » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:38 pm

Great news, good for Hungary.
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