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Hungary's new huge birth rate subsidies

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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These policies...

Are good, I'd like them in my country
43
42%
Are good, but I don't think they will work as intended
23
23%
Are bad because they are a waste of money
13
13%
Are bad because we don't need more children and Hungary should adapt to fewer people
11
11%
Are bad because we don't need more children and Hungary should invite immigrants
12
12%
 
Total votes : 102

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Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States
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Postby Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:17 am

Kowani wrote:
Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States wrote:This kind of discrimination is illegal under EU law, yes. While a citizen of an EU nation is automatically a citizen of the EU, that does not make that citizen a citizen of all other member states. However, the EU demands that welfare given to citizens must be given to all permanent residents from other EU countries, as long as they have lived in that nation for a certain amount of time. So, families which have resided in Hungary for quite some time (longer than two years, I believe) must be given the same incentives as citizens.

Cue the screeching about muh national sovereignty.

Yeah, I mean, this has been the case for fifteen years, but it would be typical of them to start the screeching only now.
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Trumptonium1
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Postby Trumptonium1 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:45 am

Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States wrote:
El-Amin Caliphate wrote:Isn't discrimination illegal in the EU? And Hungary?

This kind of discrimination is illegal under EU law, yes. While a citizen of an EU nation is automatically a citizen of the EU, that does not make that citizen a citizen of all other member states. However, the EU demands that welfare given to citizens must be given to all permanent residents from other EU countries, as long as they have lived in that nation for a certain amount of time. So, families which have resided in Hungary for quite some time (longer than two years, I believe) must be given the same incentives as citizens.


EU citizens must be in Hungary for 5 years before getting any welfare
http://www.bmbah.hu/index.php?option=co ... 13&lang=en

I think it's another 5 after that to be able to apply for naturalisation and hence right to vote. But they want to increase this.
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Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States
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Postby Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:50 am

Trumptonium1 wrote:
Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States wrote:This kind of discrimination is illegal under EU law, yes. While a citizen of an EU nation is automatically a citizen of the EU, that does not make that citizen a citizen of all other member states. However, the EU demands that welfare given to citizens must be given to all permanent residents from other EU countries, as long as they have lived in that nation for a certain amount of time. So, families which have resided in Hungary for quite some time (longer than two years, I believe) must be given the same incentives as citizens.


EU citizens must be in Hungary for 5 years before getting any welfare
http://www.bmbah.hu/index.php?option=co ... 13&lang=en

I think it's another 5 after that to be able to apply for naturalisation and hence right to vote. But they want to increase this.

Ah yes, that follows the Dano jurisprudence of the court precisely. 5 years until you have full rights to use welfare of a Member State.
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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:17 am

Don’t all these “Fuck for the nation” things never end up working?
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Postby Reichsstaaten von Germania » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:24 am

Institute artificial wombs and acquire some eggs and sperm. Problem solved.
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:27 am

Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States wrote:
Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
That is of course implying that the Visegrad Four still remotely listens to the EU anyways.

Yeah... Poland caved by reinstating its supreme court after an ECJ ruling, and they still uphold the vast majority of EU laws. Every time the European Commission moves its hands to the money funnel, Visegrad caves.

Actually it was more to do with the upcoming elections and less the EU money. And the EU couldn’t have done anything anyway because Italy, Hungary, and some others all backed Poland.
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Postby Sicaris » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:32 am

Kowani wrote:
Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States wrote:This kind of discrimination is illegal under EU law, yes. While a citizen of an EU nation is automatically a citizen of the EU, that does not make that citizen a citizen of all other member states. However, the EU demands that welfare given to citizens must be given to all permanent residents from other EU countries, as long as they have lived in that nation for a certain amount of time. So, families which have resided in Hungary for quite some time (longer than two years, I believe) must be given the same incentives as citizens.

Cue the screeching about muh national sovereignty.


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Postby Andsed » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:40 am

Thermodolia wrote:Don’t all these “Fuck for the nation” things never end up working?

Kinda but it is a useful way to get someone in bed with you.
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Postby Ifreann » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:43 am

Reichsstaaten von Germania wrote:Institute artificial wombs

How?
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:44 am

Ifreann wrote:
Reichsstaaten von Germania wrote:Institute artificial wombs

How?

Science!
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Postby Novus America » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:10 am

Thermodolia wrote:Don’t all these “Fuck for the nation” things never end up working?


Well sometimes they do work in that they often do increase the birth rate somewhat.
But the increase is usually pretty small.
Russia for example did see a noticeable increase, but not enough to actually get the birthrate above replacement.

Still anything is better than nothing if your birth rate is as bad as Hungary’s.

We still desperately need these incentives in the West, but incentives alone alone are not a silver bullet and will not replace the need for immigration.
Last edited by Novus America on Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Reichsstaaten von Germania » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:11 am

Thermodolia wrote:
Ifreann wrote:How?

Science!


It’s been done with sheep, humans aren’t too far of a stretch at all
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Postby ShakaZuli » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:14 am

If whites were to carve up an white ethnostate from the former USA, than it should adopt this policies. Giving money to native woman to encourage to have as more kids as possible is far more better than giving welfare to new coming immigrants.

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Postby The Liberated Territories » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:51 am

Yeah I don't see how subsidizing cars and loan forgiveness won't cause anything bad. Nope.
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Postby Trumptonium1 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:05 pm

Saiwania wrote:This is to be applauded in my view, but I suspect that it could be even more effective if abortion were to be made illegal and all if not more contraceptives were banished from the country on a temporary basis.


Making contraceptives illegal (and then outright banning abortion) didn't work for Chile. If anything it actually devastated the fertility rate.

I genuinely don't think anything will make pre-1970 birth rates come back. It's an era long gone with various factors that simply cannot be replicated, short of fundamentally decreasing quality of life.

Ifreann wrote:George Soros apparently has five children.


I don't think Soros has Hungarian citizenship. He was born prior to Hungary signing UN stateless convention treaties. I did find an article from 2003 claiming he got honorary citizenship though.

Western Vale Confederacy wrote:bonk my theoretical


lul

Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States wrote:What is your opinion, OP?


A little too expensive for my tastes, and I don't think it's particularly good to be encouraging increased birth rates from the lowest stratas of society unless it goes hand in hand with paternalism, conscription and some serious investment into education and policing. All in all way too costly unless fundamentally trying to socially reengineer society. Then again, Russia has tried it, and it worked, but still not to replacement rate. Poland has tried it, and it's extremely expensive (and perhaps immoral given that it pretty much is high enough to replace a minimum wage job), and people would rightly question whether it is worth it for 0.1 increase in fertility rates which at best means an one million people fewer people lost by 2100.

But if it works, it works. This is certainly the biggest package of offers any government has ever given for children, so maybe. I mean, even if you're some kind of financial manager in the upper middle class, why wouldn't you have an extra two children just to effectively save one fifth of your entire income from the taxman?



Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States wrote:
Trumptonium1 wrote:The incentives will not be available for non-Hungarian citizens, and Hungary also plans to make the application process for naturalisation more stringent so that immigrants do not abuse the system.


A clear and open violation of European Union law, which will lead to a fine payed by holding back some of the 4 billion euros Hungary receives every year.


I don't think Hungary cares about that to be honest. At the end of the day Hungary would still be in economic boom territory if the EU removed all funds.

Western Vale Confederacy wrote:That is of course implying that the Visegrad Four still remotely listens to the EU anyways.


Really it's more about 3SI now, given that Bulgaria and Croatia (and outside, Italy) have taken controversial turns recently and also been chased by EU Commission.

Valrifell wrote:I would ask why they don't just make their own union already so everyone can move on with their lives, but then I remember all that sweet monetary aid.


Indeed, turning your back on free money with no strings attached is pretty stupid. However it's losing value as it keeps becoming smaller with each budget cycle, as their currencies appreciate and as their economies grow faster than for the money to make a difference.

Dumb Ideologies wrote:Seems like a reasonable response to a real population problem. Curious though. Much of the centre-right (or at least the sons of Thatcher and Reagan who enjoy LARPing as conservatives) have been moral panicking for decades about poors having more children than they can afford without the help of daddy state. That's often taken the form of cutting and capping child benefits after a certain amount of children.

I wonder if they'll do a wholesale reversal on this or will try to hold two entirely incompatible viewpoints simultaneously and make contradictory and self-defeating provisions? Haha, joke, they're politicians. We all know it's the latter.


In the West-west? Unlikely, because generally natalist undertones either go hand in hand, or are accused of, xenophobia and anti-immigration stances, which isn't something the liberal Conservative Party can stomach. Also I believe that the Tories' hard-on for reducing the population of "the poors" is more important than decreasing the dependency ratio. Basically the Tory Party wants the middle class to fuck more but without bothering the government about it, so that there's more money around for pensions which is the budget golden goose for elections for them.

Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States wrote:
Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
That is of course implying that the Visegrad Four still remotely listens to the EU anyways.

Yeah... Poland caved by reinstating its supreme court after an ECJ ruling, and they still uphold the vast majority of EU laws. Every time the European Commission moves its hands to the money funnel, Visegrad caves.


This is entirely untrue. Poland didn't reinstate the supreme court, the new rules still apply, it was simply decided the laws cannot be 'grandfathered' per se and the current stock of supreme court judges will not have the new judicial reforms laws apply to them. Plus there's an election coming up and they want to keep their 45% as close to 45-50% as possible to continue running without a coalition, and having zero major conflicts is rather beneficial.

It's why the EU A7 case against Poland hasn't been revoked.
Last edited by Trumptonium1 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Trumptonium1 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:17 pm

El-Amin Caliphate wrote:
Trumptonium1 wrote:The incentives will not be available for non-Hungarian citizens

Isn't discrimination illegal in the EU? And Hungary?


No because this isn't discrimination.

In theory EU citizens who lived in Hungary for 5+ years are eligible for this but we'll see if that's true. Not that this number is likely to be more than 5000 people.
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Postby Puldania » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:27 pm

I'm fine with this.
While I personally wouldn't be as concerned with immigrants as Hungary, I can understand that excess migrants would put stress on the system. I don't hold it against them for deciding on closed borders while they try to get birth rates back up.
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Postby Puldania » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:27 pm

Trumptonium1 wrote:
El-Amin Caliphate wrote:Isn't discrimination illegal in the EU? And Hungary?


No because this isn't discrimination.

In theory EU citizens who lived in Hungary for 5+ years are eligible for this but we'll see if that's true. Not that this number is likely to be more than 5000 people.

Someone said it as a joke, but it is actually very likely that the nature of the Hungarian language dissuades most immigrants from staying there at all.
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Postby Qilai » Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:32 pm

A good idea. However, four children may be pushing it, depending on how popular these policies are. If Hungary becomes overpopulated, that might become an issue. But, we'll see how these work out. These policies could become a model for other countries to follow.

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Postby Novus America » Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:26 pm

Qilai wrote:A good idea. However, four children may be pushing it, depending on how popular these policies are. If Hungary becomes overpopulated, that might become an issue. But, we'll see how these work out. These policies could become a model for other countries to follow.


I seriously doubt that will be a problem.
To actually cause a problem it would have to double the birthrate which is highly unlikely.
4 children or more is needed to offset those who have one or none.

You will need some extremely fertile people to offset the majority who will not have enough.
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Postby Yusseria » Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:37 pm

Sounds like a good policy and the first real attempt I've seen from any government to increase birthrates that doesn't rely on importing millions of poor foreigners.
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Postby Woodfiredpizzas » Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:40 pm

Reichsstaaten von Germania wrote:Institute artificial wombs and acquire some eggs and sperm. Problem solved.


We already have effective birth delivery apparatus.
It’s the control and decision processing modules which are the issue.

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Postby Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores » Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:41 pm

Trumptonium1 wrote:Hungary today announced the most extreme natalist policies ever seen by any national government suffering a decline in birth rates and a demographic crisis.

The move was a surprise and no such policies were hinted beforehand, nor were they predicted because Orban already won an election in April last year and doesn't have any need for electioneering, especially with election four years away and his party sitting at just under 60% in opinion polls.

Regardless, Viktor Orban's government today saw "a pressing need" to 'ensure the survival of the Hungarian people and nation' and announced new initiatives to raise the birth rates as soon as possible. Among others, these notably include:

1) A government subsidy of $9030 US dollars towards a seven-seater car for new mothers giving birth to their fourth child (56% of Hungarian GDP per capita, 59% of Hungarian average wage and 143% of Hungarian minimum wage)

2) A lifetime (and backdated) income tax exemption for families with four or more children. This is regardless of income, and includes millionaires et al.

3) Interest-free 10 year loans of 10 million forint (27k GBP, 36k USD) for newly married 21-35 year olds, which will be entirely forgiven if the family has three children.

Obviously (/presumably) 2 will no longer apply once birth rates are at higher levels, as it is impossible to imagine Hungary could operate with a 'lifetime' tax exemption once all middle class and up families have their fourth child.

The incentives will not be available for non-Hungarian citizens, and Hungary also plans to make the application process for naturalisation more stringent so that immigrants do not abuse the system.




Other governments have used similar incentives to raise birth rates. It can be argued that UK Child Benefits and US Child Tax Credits are a form of such, however, they are more of a discount for having a child rather than a literal incentive, because it still costs more to raise a child than the government rewards you for having one.

The most notable incentives have come from Japan (where it has worked, but not as far as hoped), Russia (where it has definitely worked) and Poland (where it is recent but signs are it's working).

I won't attempt to explain Japanese tax and spend incentives for having children because Japan is notoriously bureaucratic, but more or less Japan is noteworthy for giving a blank child benefit of 235 dollars per child per month to all parents. The Japanese fertility rate reached a record low of 1.26 in 2005, and today increased to 1.44 (slightly down from 1.45 last year). Japan went from the lowest fertility rate in the world in 2005 to more or less the European average.

Russia has more extensive government help for children, including an entire national holiday to fertility 1 day in September (and Putin is not hiding what he wants adults to do on that day), lotteries for parents and a monthly child benefit. Russia's fertility rates have risen substantially - from the lowest peacetime fertility rate in the world of 1.17 in 1999, the year of Putin's rise to power, to 1.75 as of last year. In comparison the United States is now at 1.8, so Russia has risen a lot. It is now higher than all EU countries bar three.

Poland more recently under a conservative government have introduced large government subsidies of 500 PLN (101 GBP, 130 USD) per month, or just under 10% of the monthly average wage, for each family with two or more children where at least one adult works full-time, per child. So far there are signs it has risen from 1.4 to 1.5, but the policy is only in its third year.

Of course there is no guarantee that these subsidies and tax incentives are resulting in these rises in fertility rates, but given the general trend of comparable countries, it's really hard to not argue there is an outright correlation.

So far Hungary has a fertility rate of 1.4, the joint 3rd lowest in the world.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hung ... SKCN1PZ0I0

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47192612

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Postby Yusseria » Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:45 pm

Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States wrote:What is your opinion, OP?

Trumptonium1 wrote:The incentives will not be available for non-Hungarian citizens, and Hungary also plans to make the application process for naturalisation more stringent so that immigrants do not abuse the system.


A clear and open violation of European Union law, which will lead to a fine payed by holding back some of the 4 billion euros Hungary receives every year.

EU law is silly.
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Trumptonium1
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Postby Trumptonium1 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:03 pm

Puldania wrote:
Trumptonium1 wrote:
No because this isn't discrimination.

In theory EU citizens who lived in Hungary for 5+ years are eligible for this but we'll see if that's true. Not that this number is likely to be more than 5000 people.

Someone said it as a joke, but it is actually very likely that the nature of the Hungarian language dissuades most immigrants from staying there at all.


Probably true, but EU law means knowledge of Hungarian language (or any other national language of host country) has no relevance in determining someone's rights to access welfare of said country.

As in, you don't need to know a word of English to have the legal right to have welfare in the UK.
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