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Hungary's new huge birth rate subsidies

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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These policies...

Are good, I'd like them in my country
43
42%
Are good, but I don't think they will work as intended
23
22%
Are bad because they are a waste of money
13
13%
Are bad because we don't need more children and Hungary should adapt to fewer people
11
11%
Are bad because we don't need more children and Hungary should invite immigrants
13
13%
 
Total votes : 103

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Darussalam
Minister
 
Posts: 2419
Founded: May 15, 2012
Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Darussalam » Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:19 pm

Trumptonium1 wrote:
Novus America wrote:
Prove what I have said is false.
You have not actually supported your argument with data. You just repeat the same thing without supporting it.

Also, again, explain
France 1.9, US 1.8, Sweden 1.8.
Brazil 1.7, Thailand 1.5, China 1.6.

This conclusively and irrefutably proves wealth alone does not determine birthrates.
And that not only wealthy countries face demographic crisis.


That's down to the minority cultures present in the three countries mentioned with high birth rates.

I wonder how much is this actually the case? Does someone have a breakdown of fertility rate by ethnicity in these countries?
The Eternal Thearchy

User avatar
Trumptonium1
Senator
 
Posts: 4022
Founded: Apr 03, 2018
Ex-Nation

Postby Trumptonium1 » Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:00 pm

Darussalam wrote:
Trumptonium1 wrote:
That's down to the minority cultures present in the three countries mentioned with high birth rates.

I wonder how much is this actually the case? Does someone have a breakdown of fertility rate by ethnicity in these countries?


European governments most certainly do not release such sensitive information. Sweden doesn't even release ethnic breakdown of crime & prisoners.

For example for Australia we know that Muslim women have a fertility rate of 3.03 according to the 2016 census. However Australian Muslims generally come from low-birth Islamic countries anyway, such as Malaysia and Iran, rather than from Muslims more typically found in Europe, such as those from Africa and the Stan's.
http://www.unisa.edu.au/contentassets/4 ... nov-26.pdf

In the UK fertility rates are not released, however, 10% of children aged 0-4 are from Muslim parents, compared to the general population being <5%, so obviously the fertility rate is fairly high.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/databl ... mes-census

However these figures are difficult to determine because of weird methodology, for example a child born to a household to Muslims who did not answer the census religion question is not Muslim, and neither is a child born to one Muslim parent, including single parents. For a (slightly) better piece of evidence we can look to live births to foreign-born mothers, which is 27% of all births in UK in 2017. On the contrary, only 14% of the population as a whole is foreign-born, 60% of which from non-EU countries.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ide-the-uk

Don't read French, but most certainly no chance for Germany, Netherlands, Sweden etc.

Either way, these statistics don't exist because they're not compiled due to their PC nature.
Last edited by Trumptonium1 on Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Page
Postmaster-General
 
Posts: 10548
Founded: Jan 12, 2012
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Page » Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:51 am

Zordennox wrote:If you don't care that the native population will be decimated, you're okay with genocide by the definition you've given.


Decimation means a 10% reduction, you may not be using this word correctly.

I don't care about the birthrates of whites, blacks, Asians, Arabs, Muslims, Christians, Hindus. I don't care which migrant groups go where. Nations and ethnicities are temporary in any case.

You're afraid that nation X will be changed into nation Y because of Y migrants and X's not breeding enough, but what you fail to see is that within a few centuries, neither X nor Y will have a culture anything like X or Y culture today anyway.
Last edited by Page on Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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User avatar
Novus America
Postmaster of the Fleet
 
Posts: 26585
Founded: Jun 02, 2014
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Novus America » Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:37 am

Darussalam wrote:
Trumptonium1 wrote:
That's down to the minority cultures present in the three countries mentioned with high birth rates.

I wonder how much is this actually the case? Does someone have a breakdown of fertility rate by ethnicity in these countries?


Here it is for the US.
https://ifstudies.org/blog/baby-bust-fe ... rity-women
In the US blacks still have a slightly higher birthrate than whites but it is falling faster.
Whereas Native Americans and Asians have lower rates than whites.

Actually in the US white birth rates have stabilized somewhat while the big declines are among “minority” groups.

Hispanics do make things a little more complicated given Hispanics can be of any race and the definition is very vague and over broad.

It is very possible to have blue eyes, blond hair, speak no Spanish and still be considered Hispanic.
So long as someone in your family somewhere at some time came from a Spanish speaking country.

Moreover Hispanic whites and “Non Hispanic” whites intermarry at a very high rate, so differentiating between the two is increasingly pointless (if it even had a point in the first place).
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. Pragmatism is my ideology.

User avatar
Novus America
Postmaster of the Fleet
 
Posts: 26585
Founded: Jun 02, 2014
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Novus America » Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:42 am

Trumptonium1 wrote:
Darussalam wrote:I wonder how much is this actually the case? Does someone have a breakdown of fertility rate by ethnicity in these countries?


European governments most certainly do not release such sensitive information. Sweden doesn't even release ethnic breakdown of crime & prisoners.

For example for Australia we know that Muslim women have a fertility rate of 3.03 according to the 2016 census. However Australian Muslims generally come from low-birth Islamic countries anyway, such as Malaysia and Iran, rather than from Muslims more typically found in Europe, such as those from Africa and the Stan's.
http://www.unisa.edu.au/contentassets/4 ... nov-26.pdf

In the UK fertility rates are not released, however, 10% of children aged 0-4 are from Muslim parents, compared to the general population being <5%, so obviously the fertility rate is fairly high.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/databl ... mes-census

However these figures are difficult to determine because of weird methodology, for example a child born to a household to Muslims who did not answer the census religion question is not Muslim, and neither is a child born to one Muslim parent, including single parents. For a (slightly) better piece of evidence we can look to live births to foreign-born mothers, which is 27% of all births in UK in 2017. On the contrary, only 14% of the population as a whole is foreign-born, 60% of which from non-EU countries.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ide-the-uk

Don't read French, but most certainly no chance for Germany, Netherlands, Sweden etc.

Either way, these statistics don't exist because they're not compiled due to their PC nature.


The US does actually have a good breakdown by race.
Less so by religion though.
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. Pragmatism is my ideology.

User avatar
Trumptonium1
Senator
 
Posts: 4022
Founded: Apr 03, 2018
Ex-Nation

Postby Trumptonium1 » Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:51 am

Novus America wrote:
Trumptonium1 wrote:
European governments most certainly do not release such sensitive information. Sweden doesn't even release ethnic breakdown of crime & prisoners.

For example for Australia we know that Muslim women have a fertility rate of 3.03 according to the 2016 census. However Australian Muslims generally come from low-birth Islamic countries anyway, such as Malaysia and Iran, rather than from Muslims more typically found in Europe, such as those from Africa and the Stan's.
http://www.unisa.edu.au/contentassets/4 ... nov-26.pdf

In the UK fertility rates are not released, however, 10% of children aged 0-4 are from Muslim parents, compared to the general population being <5%, so obviously the fertility rate is fairly high.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/databl ... mes-census

However these figures are difficult to determine because of weird methodology, for example a child born to a household to Muslims who did not answer the census religion question is not Muslim, and neither is a child born to one Muslim parent, including single parents. For a (slightly) better piece of evidence we can look to live births to foreign-born mothers, which is 27% of all births in UK in 2017. On the contrary, only 14% of the population as a whole is foreign-born, 60% of which from non-EU countries.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ide-the-uk

Don't read French, but most certainly no chance for Germany, Netherlands, Sweden etc.

Either way, these statistics don't exist because they're not compiled due to their PC nature.


The US does actually have a good breakdown by race.
Less so by religion though.


Which is pretty useless when trying to find fertility rates by religion.

White figures inflated by Mormons and Amish multiplying faster than a kid can work his way through a multiplication table, Black figures deflated by abortion rates that are tantamount to infanticide and Hispanic figures deflated because of some self-identification as White.
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User avatar
Novus America
Postmaster of the Fleet
 
Posts: 26585
Founded: Jun 02, 2014
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Novus America » Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:56 am

Trumptonium1 wrote:
Novus America wrote:
The US does actually have a good breakdown by race.
Less so by religion though.


Which is pretty useless when trying to find fertility rates by religion.

White figures inflated by Mormons and Amish multiplying faster than a kid can work his way through a multiplication table, Black figures deflated by abortion rates that are tantamount to infanticide and Hispanic figures deflated because of some self-identification as White.


Sure, I do not have the US numbers by religion.
But at least in the US the panic over race and birthrates is silly.
Hispanic is not a race though. It is a (VERY) loose ethnolinguistic grouping.

There are white Hispanics, black Hispanics, even Asian Hispanics.
Of course a large number are a mix of Native American and white.
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. Pragmatism is my ideology.

User avatar
Trumptonium1
Senator
 
Posts: 4022
Founded: Apr 03, 2018
Ex-Nation

Postby Trumptonium1 » Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:59 am

Novus America wrote:
Trumptonium1 wrote:
Which is pretty useless when trying to find fertility rates by religion.

White figures inflated by Mormons and Amish multiplying faster than a kid can work his way through a multiplication table, Black figures deflated by abortion rates that are tantamount to infanticide and Hispanic figures deflated because of some self-identification as White.


Sure, I do not have the US numbers by religion.
But at least in the US the panic over race and birthrates is silly.
Hispanic is not a race though. It is a (VERY) loose ethnolinguistic grouping.

There are white Hispanics, black Hispanics, even Asian Hispanics.
Of course a large number are a mix of Native American and white.


I'm perfectly aware.
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Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores
Envoy
 
Posts: 215
Founded: Dec 30, 2018
Ex-Nation

Postby Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores » Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:27 pm

If the Hungarian government could reduce the number of ethnic Hungarian immigrants to other nations per year, they could increase their population growth considerably. If the Hungarian government could encourage Hungarian immigrants to other nations to return to Hungary they could increase their population growth considerably, actually thousands do return.
Last edited by Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores on Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Ungvarnfjall
Spokesperson
 
Posts: 118
Founded: Sep 03, 2018
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Ungvarnfjall » Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:38 pm

Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores wrote:If the Hungarian government could reduce the number of ethnic Hungarian immigrants to other nations per year, they could increase their population growth considerably. If the Hungarian government could encourage Hungarian immigrants to other nations to return to Hungary they could increase their population growth considerably, actually thousands do return.

Maybe toning down the neo fascism is a good place to start? Can't imagine a nation that dislikes immigrants and their neighbors as much as Hungary is a migrant's first pick, or a citizen's most desired place to be at any given time.
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Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores
Envoy
 
Posts: 215
Founded: Dec 30, 2018
Ex-Nation

Postby Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores » Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:44 pm

Ungvarnfjall wrote:
Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores wrote:If the Hungarian government could reduce the number of ethnic Hungarian immigrants to other nations per year, they could increase their population growth considerably. If the Hungarian government could encourage Hungarian immigrants to other nations to return to Hungary they could increase their population growth considerably, actually thousands do return.

Maybe toning down the neo fascism is a good place to start? Can't imagine a nation that dislikes immigrants and their neighbors as much as Hungary is a migrant's first pick, or a citizen's most desired place to be at any given time.

I am talking about ethnic Hungarians not foreigners, ethnic Hungarians emigrate to other nations for better economic conditions not because of their government's anti foreigner policies.
Last edited by Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores on Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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