Hungary today announced the most extreme natalist policies ever seen by any national government suffering a decline in birth rates and a demographic crisis.
The move was a surprise and no such policies were hinted beforehand, nor were they predicted because Orban already won an election in April last year and doesn't have any need for electioneering, especially with election four years away and his party sitting at just under 60% in opinion polls.
Regardless, Viktor Orban's government today saw "a pressing need" to 'ensure the survival of the Hungarian people and nation' and announced new initiatives to raise the birth rates as soon as possible. Among others, these notably include:
1) A government subsidy of $9030 US dollars towards a seven-seater car for new mothers giving birth to their fourth child (56% of Hungarian GDP per capita, 59% of Hungarian average wage and 143% of Hungarian minimum wage)
2) A lifetime (and backdated) income tax exemption for families with four or more children. This is regardless of income, and includes millionaires et al.
3) Interest-free 10 year loans of 10 million forint (27k GBP, 36k USD) for newly married 21-35 year olds, which will be entirely forgiven if the family has three children.
Obviously (/presumably) 2 will no longer apply once birth rates are at higher levels, as it is impossible to imagine Hungary could operate with a 'lifetime' tax exemption once all middle class and up families have their fourth child.
The incentives will not be available for non-Hungarian citizens, and Hungary also plans to make the application process for naturalisation more stringent so that immigrants do not abuse the system.
Other governments have used similar incentives to raise birth rates. It can be argued that UK Child Benefits and US Child Tax Credits are a form of such, however, they are more of a discount for having a child rather than a literal incentive, because it still costs more to raise a child than the government rewards you for having one.
The most notable incentives have come from Japan (where it has worked, but not as far as hoped), Russia (where it has definitely worked) and Poland (where it is recent but signs are it's working).
I won't attempt to explain Japanese tax and spend incentives for having children because Japan is notoriously bureaucratic, but more or less Japan is noteworthy for giving a blank child benefit of 235 dollars per child per month to all parents. The Japanese fertility rate reached a record low of 1.26 in 2005, and today increased to 1.44 (slightly down from 1.45 last year). Japan went from the lowest fertility rate in the world in 2005 to more or less the European average.
Russia has more extensive government help for children, including an entire national holiday to fertility 1 day in September (and Putin is not hiding what he wants adults to do on that day), lotteries for parents and a monthly child benefit. Russia's fertility rates have risen substantially - from the lowest peacetime fertility rate in the world of 1.17 in 1999, the year of Putin's rise to power, to 1.75 as of last year. In comparison the United States is now at 1.8, so Russia has risen a lot. It is now higher than all EU countries bar three.
Poland more recently under a conservative government have introduced large government subsidies of 500 PLN (101 GBP, 130 USD) per month, or just under 10% of the monthly average wage, for each family with two or more children where at least one adult works full-time, per child. So far there are signs it has risen from 1.4 to 1.5, but the policy is only in its third year.
Of course there is no guarantee that these subsidies and tax incentives are resulting in these rises in fertility rates, but given the general trend of comparable countries, it's really hard to not argue there is an outright correlation.
So far Hungary has a fertility rate of 1.4, the joint 3rd lowest in the world.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hung ... SKCN1PZ0I0
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47192612
