2021 Israeli Elections IV: Now Without Netanyahu

[Major-Tom]

Looks like Bibi formally let the cat out of the bag.

Netanyahu, in apparent stumble, calls Israel 'nuclear power'

Rut-roh Bibi.

[Page]

Looks like Bibi formally let the cat out of the bag.

Netanyahu, in apparent stumble, calls Israel 'nuclear power'

The cat was never really in the bag in the first place.

[North German Realm]

Looks like Bibi formally let the cat out of the bag.

Netanyahu, in apparent stumble, calls Israel 'nuclear power'

The cat was never really in the bag in the first place.

Literally everyone and their mother had known that since, what, the 80s?

[Gormwood]

The cat was never really in the bag in the first place.

Literally everyone and their mother had known that since, what, the 80s?

But the Israeli government can't pretend they don't have nuclear weapons anymore.

[North German Realm]

Literally everyone and their mother had known that since, what, the 80s?

But the Israeli government can't pretend they don't have nuclear weapons anymore.

I mean did they? Aside from a formality which everyone knew to be false? Like, don't get me wrong this was basically an Ahmadinejad-tier faux-pas, but like... It just confirmed what literally everyone knew, and what literally nobody can blame them for.

[Shrillland]

In what's likely the last shift before the lists get published later this week, Labor-Gesher are now running on a single ballot with the Democratic Union: https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Peretz-We-will-negotiate-with-Meretz-about-running-together-613942

[Outer Sparta]

In what's likely the last shift before the lists get published later this week, Labor-Gesher are now running on a single ballot with the Democratic Union: https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Peretz-We-will-negotiate-with-Meretz-about-running-together-613942

It's clear Labor has lost a lot of support on their own, so it's expected they partner with Meretz and create a left alliance.

[Phoenicaea]

^center-left stronghold list? it could change the chessboard, in good. i m not aknowledged though, in case to be credible people list.

[Shrillland]

^center-left stronghold list? it could change the chessboard, in good. i m not aknowledged though, in case to be credible people list.

A centre-left list isn't going to happen, Labor already floated the proposal and Gantz shot it down in a heartbeat.

[Outer Sparta]

^center-left stronghold list? it could change the chessboard, in good. i m not aknowledged though, in case to be credible people list.

They'll probably gain around nine or ten seats, but the center-left alliance won't do much with Likud and KL both dominating at the top.

[Shrillland]

Well, the Labor-Democratic Union joint list now has a name: Emet: https://www.yahoo.com/news/israels-left-wing-parties-unite-ahead-elections-183147246.html

[Gormwood]

Well, the Labor-Democratic Union joint list now has a name: Emet: https://www.yahoo.com/news/israels-left-wing-parties-unite-ahead-elections-183147246.html

They better make sure nobody rubs out the aleph or it'll all collapse into a pile of clay.

[Angleter]

Mildly hilariously, after Stav Shaffir walked out of the Democratic Union in an attempt to get them to form an alliance with Labor, they've now done so and left her out. It appears that Ehud Barak's Israel Democratic Party will also be outside the alliance, although their only MK has formed a tiny party of his own (Democratic Choice) which will be.

Also, in yet another deeply confusing rearrangement of the national-religious parties, the New Right are running with the National Union, while the Bayit Yehudi are running with Otzma Yehudit. Yesterday, the New Right were saying they'd run alone and it looked like the National Union would join the Bayit Yehudi/Otzma slate, which would make sense given that the New Right literally exists as an attempt to appeal to right-wing voters who were repelled by the more nutso members of the Bayit Yehudi and (especially) the National Union. However, at some point today, National Union leader Bezalel Smotrich pulled the plug on a deal with the Bayit Yehudi and Otzma, and decided to go with the New Right instead. Even though the New Right's leaders founded that party in order to not have to run on the same slate as Smotrich. Some members of the Bayit Yehudi are calling on its leader, Rafi Peretz, to abandon his alliance with Otzma and join the slightly less nutso grouping, but Peretz is sticking to his decision for now.

[Angleter]

In another bizarre and confusing development on the hard right, Rafi Peretz has unceremoniously dumped Otzma at the 11th hour and joined forces with the New Right and the National Union, reviving the Yamina slate from the last election and making it totally pointless me changing that part of the OP. The constituent parts of Yamina are, of course, what Bayit Yehudi was before it disintegrated in late 2018.

Netanyahu was reportedly desperate to orchestrate a massive alliance on the hard right including all the Yamina parties plus Otzma, but Naftali Bennett refused to enter into an alliance with the ultra-extremist Otzma. Bennett pointed to the fact that Otzma leader Itamar Ben-Gvir keeps a picture of the Cave of the Patriarchs terrorist in his living room, to which Ben-Gvir responded that he had taken the picture down (which, obviously, wasn't the point). Netanyahu apparently threatened to sack Bennett as Defence Minister if he didn't cave in, but Bennett ultimately got his way.

Bennett probably deserves some credit for keeping the Kahanists out of the Knesset (although his standards aren't that high – Smotrich and Peretz have a record of saying unpleasant things about Arabs and gays), and the fact that Netanyahu has spent much of the last year moving Heaven and Earth to get them onto slates that can win seats is a serious blot on his career.

[Shrillland]

Meanwhile, on the left, Stav Shaffir has announced that the Green Party will not run after all and that she's withdrawing from politics: https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Stav-Shaffir-forced-into-break-from-politics-614256

After the Labor-Meretz list was formed, she wanted the Greens to have a piece, but they put her and other Green candidates so far down the list that she simply decided to withdraw.

This should be the last change since candidate lists will have been submitted by now.

[Shrillland]

Well, the lists have been submitted, the first polls with the full lists are in, and the poll averages show....dear god, here we go again.

Blue and While likely coalition including LGM: 43
Likud likely coalition including Shas, UTJ, Yanina: 55
Joint List: 13
Yisrael Beitenu: 9

Either Bibi needs to step down or otherwise Likud needs to just convince their Orthodox partners that removing the conscription exemptions is now in the national interest.

[Outer Sparta]

Well, the lists have been submitted, the first polls with the full lists are in, and the poll averages show....dear god, here we go again.

Blue and While likely coalition including LGM: 43
Likud likely coalition including Shas, UTJ, Yanina: 55
Joint List: 13
Yisrael Beitenu: 9

Either Bibi needs to step down or otherwise Likud needs to just convince their Orthodox partners that removing the conscription exemptions is now in the national interest.

Ugh same old same old results, with Yisrael Beitenu yet again playing kingmaker. 4th election, anyone?

[Thermodolia]

Well, the lists have been submitted, the first polls with the full lists are in, and the poll averages show....dear god, here we go again.

Blue and While likely coalition including LGM: 43
Likud likely coalition including Shas, UTJ, Yanina: 55
Joint List: 13
Yisrael Beitenu: 9

Either Bibi needs to step down or otherwise Likud needs to just convince their Orthodox partners that removing the conscription exemptions is now in the national interest.

Maybe Gantz will relent on the Joint List for once. A minority government is better than nothing or another election

[Shrillland]

Well, the lists have been submitted, the first polls with the full lists are in, and the poll averages show....dear god, here we go again.

Blue and While likely coalition including LGM: 43
Likud likely coalition including Shas, UTJ, Yanina: 55
Joint List: 13
Yisrael Beitenu: 9

Either Bibi needs to step down or otherwise Likud needs to just convince their Orthodox partners that removing the conscription exemptions is now in the national interest.

Maybe Gantz will relent on the Joint List for once. A minority government is better than nothing or another election

Even a minority government couldn't work in those circumstances. The Likud coalition and Lieberman would just shoot it down flat.

[Outer Sparta]

Well, the lists have been submitted, the first polls with the full lists are in, and the poll averages show....dear god, here we go again.

Blue and While likely coalition including LGM: 43
Likud likely coalition including Shas, UTJ, Yanina: 55
Joint List: 13
Yisrael Beitenu: 9

Either Bibi needs to step down or otherwise Likud needs to just convince their Orthodox partners that removing the conscription exemptions is now in the national interest.

Maybe Gantz will relent on the Joint List for once. A minority government is better than nothing or another election

B&W + JL would have 56 seats, Likud plus the right-wing parties would have 55 seats. Of course Yisrael Beitenu is the one who holds all the power.

[Thermodolia]

Maybe Gantz will relent on the Joint List for once. A minority government is better than nothing or another election

Even a minority government couldn't work in those circumstances. The Likud coalition and Lieberman would just shoot it down flat.

My hope is that Lieberman would just not do anything. Letting the minority government go ahead. If just to kick Ben out

[Outer Sparta]

Even a minority government couldn't work in those circumstances. The Likud coalition and Lieberman would just shoot it down flat.

My hope is that Lieberman would just not do anything. Letting the minority government go ahead. If just to kick Ben out

The best case to avoid a fourth election is to have a grand coalition with B&W and Likud, but Netanyahu won't allow it.

[Shrillland]

My hope is that Lieberman would just not do anything. Letting the minority government go ahead. If just to kick Ben out

The best case to avoid a fourth election is to have a grand coalition with B&W and Likud, but Netanyahu won't allow it.

Actually, it's Gantz that allow it because he doesn't want to work with someone so corrupt as Netanyahu. Sadly, Likud has spoken and kept him in. By Round 12, we may get a breakthrough, but I'm not promising anything.

[Outer Sparta]

The best case to avoid a fourth election is to have a grand coalition with B&W and Likud, but Netanyahu won't allow it.

Actually, it's Gantz that allow it because he doesn't want to work with someone so corrupt as Netanyahu. Sadly, Likud has spoken and kept him in. By Round 12, we may get a breakthrough, but I'm not promising anything.

Avigdor Lieberman is viewed as the obstructor, but I would argue Netanyahu is an even bigger one because he won't ever cede power since he's trying to avoid prison time, gridlocking the entire electoral system by making a grand coalition impossible.

[Thermodolia]

Netanyahu has been indicted in the corruption case. He’s also withdrawn his immunity request