2021 Israeli Elections IV: Now Without Netanyahu

[Philjia]

The Israelis and Tnufa have dropped out, due to their total lack of traction in opinion polls.

The rearranging of the deckchairs on the Titanic that Israeli political system is very frantic this time round.

[Shrillland]

The Israelis and Tnufa have dropped out, due to their total lack of traction in opinion polls.

The rearranging of the deckchairs on the Titanic that Israeli political system is very frantic this time round.

Jewish Home's also dropped out: https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/israel-elections-bayit-yehudi-party-not-running-in-election-657916

That should be the last rearrangement. All the lists have been published today, so here's the latest poll showing:

Likud Bloc(Likud, Blue and White, Shas, UTJ, Religious Zionists-Noam-Otzma Yehudit): 49
Opposition Bloc(Yesh Atid, New Hope, Yamina, Yisrael Beitenu, Labor): 56
Meretz: 5
Combined Joint List and Ra'am: 10

Thanks to Netanyahu, Israeli politics in the 2020s resembles the film Groundhog Day. Lapid has more of a chance of forming a government without having to touch the Arab Parties, but Meretz would still ask for concessions that most of the Opposition Bloc won't touch.

[Arisyan]

The Israelis and Tnufa have dropped out, due to their total lack of traction in opinion polls.

The rearranging of the deckchairs on the Titanic that Israeli political system is very frantic this time round.

yeah, it originally appeared as if The Israelies were going to eclipse the Labor Party until Michaeli was elected leader. Then the exact opposite happened. Didn't expect Tnufa though.

[Bienenhalde]

Jewish Home's also dropped out: https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/israel-elections-bayit-yehudi-party-not-running-in-election-657916

That should be the last rearrangement. All the lists have been published today, so here's the latest poll showing:

Likud Bloc(Likud, Blue and White, Shas, UTJ, Religious Zionists-Noam-Otzma Yehudit): 49
Opposition Bloc(Yesh Atid, New Hope, Yamina, Yisrael Beitenu, Labor): 56
Meretz: 5
Combined Joint List and Ra'am: 10

Thanks to Netanyahu, Israeli politics in the 2020s resembles the film Groundhog Day. Lapid has more of a chance of forming a government without having to touch the Arab Parties, but Meretz would still ask for concessions that most of the Opposition Bloc won't touch.

So who do you think will pick up Jewish Home's former supporters?

[Shrillland]

Jewish Home's also dropped out: https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/israel-elections-bayit-yehudi-party-not-running-in-election-657916

That should be the last rearrangement. All the lists have been published today, so here's the latest poll showing:

Likud Bloc(Likud, Blue and White, Shas, UTJ, Religious Zionists-Noam-Otzma Yehudit): 49
Opposition Bloc(Yesh Atid, New Hope, Yamina, Yisrael Beitenu, Labor): 56
Meretz: 5
Combined Joint List and Ra'am: 10

Thanks to Netanyahu, Israeli politics in the 2020s resembles the film Groundhog Day. Lapid has more of a chance of forming a government without having to touch the Arab Parties, but Meretz would still ask for concessions that most of the Opposition Bloc won't touch.

So who do you think will pick up Jewish Home's former supporters?

Well, given that Moshe's leadership run was Bibi's idea, I think he'll get most of them.

[Philjia]

While Israel is approaching an election likely to conclude with no victor, the Palestinian Authority is heading towards an election that might not even finish if it even starts at all. After years of wrangling between Hamas and Fatah, the first Palestinian Authority election since 2006 was announced earlier this year. Palestinians in the autonomous West Bank areas, Gaza, and East Jerusalem are meant to be eligible to vote, but there are doubts about whether the elections would be free and fair due to interference from both Palestine and Israel, and whether some of the involved parties would accept the results. Also Hamas is now threatening to interfere in the Israeli election.

[The Horror Channel]

Israel needs to be abolished for the good of the world.

[Shrillland]

While Israel is approaching an election likely to conclude with no victor, the Palestinian Authority is heading towards an election that might not even finish if it even starts at all. After years of wrangling between Hamas and Fatah, the first Palestinian Authority election since 2006 was announced earlier this year. Palestinians in the autonomous West Bank areas, Gaza, and East Jerusalem are meant to be eligible to vote, but there are doubts about whether the elections would be free and fair due to interference from both Palestine and Israel, and whether some of the involved parties would accept the results. Also Hamas is now threatening to interfere in the Israeli election.

Hamas always makes threats like this in some form though. As for their vote, I'll have the thread up for their elections in late March if all goes well.

[Fahran]

Israel needs to be abolished for the good of the world.

You see this, kids? This is a bad take.

[Nekostan-e Gharbi]

Israel needs to be abolished for the good of the world.

You see this, kids? This is a bad take.

Antisemites need to get lost.

[The Horror Channel]

Israel needs to be abolished for the good of the world.

You see this, kids? This is a bad take.

I guess you love apartheid.

[Shrillland]

You see this, kids? This is a bad take.

I guess you love apartheid.

No, we don't. But it's not a binary choice either. We can force Israel to behave and treat the Palestinians like human beings without demanding its annihilation.

[The Horror Channel]

I guess you love apartheid.

No, we don't. But it's not a binary choice either. We can force Israel to behave and treat the Palestinians like human beings without demanding its annihilation.

I'd love to see the rest of the world get right on that, but I doubt it'll happen

[Nekostan-e Gharbi]

While Israel is approaching an election likely to conclude with no victor, the Palestinian Authority is heading towards an election that might not even finish if it even starts at all. After years of wrangling between Hamas and Fatah, the first Palestinian Authority election since 2006 was announced earlier this year. Palestinians in the autonomous West Bank areas, Gaza, and East Jerusalem are meant to be eligible to vote, but there are doubts about whether the elections would be free and fair due to interference from both Palestine and Israel, and whether some of the involved parties would accept the results. Also Hamas is now threatening to interfere in the Israeli election.

Palestinian election? Ok..

[New Visayan Islands]

Israel needs to be abolished for the good of the world.

While an extreme opinion, we have Israeli players here in NS. Do keep that in mind moving forward.

Thanks!
NVI

[Fahran]

I guess you love apartheid.

Absolutely. It's my favorite just after chocolate and horses. /s

[Shrillland]

A couple more things I forgot to add. First, Gesher's going to work with Likud...or rather Orly Levy's now on the Likud list: https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-recruits-firebrand-right-wing-novelist-to-bolster-likud-party-slate/

And Blue and White and the NEP have made a surplus agreement: https://www.ynetnews.com/article/B17bk9plu

[Kowani]

Netanyahu is trying to get his corruption trial delayed until after the election

[Shrillland]

Netanyahu is trying to get his corruption trial delayed until after the election

Sure, he knows he can't be tried if he can still be PM...which at this rate he'll remain until sometime in 2210.

[Djuph]

Netanyahu is trying to get his corruption trial delayed until after the election

Isn't that why he keeps issuing new elections?

Nobody wants him to stay on as prime-minister ( except for the Likud faithful ) but anytime he looks like a man on his way to the exit, he breaks up the government, which means he will stay on as a caretaker prime-minister until the next elections, then until a new government is formed, then again as a prime-minister, then onward to a few months of build-up to a break-up, then repeat?

If anyone wants to break the cycle, Netanyahu has to suffer a big defeat.

But a lot of his voters are stubbornly faithful (must be their soviet backgrounds: the backbone of Likud is made of recent immigrants from former Soviet States)

[Fahran]

But a lot of his voters are stubbornly faithful (must be their soviet backgrounds: the backbone of Likud is made of recent immigrants from former Soviet States)

Oddly enough, Yisrael Beiteinu is probably better known as the party of Russian Jews, but immigrants from the FSU tend to lean center-right (Likud) or hard-right (Yisrael Beiteinu, Bayit HaYehudi, Yamina). If you're center-right in Israel, you can vote for Likud or YIsrael Beiteinu. It doesn't really have anything to do with them being from the FSU.

[Pope Saint Peter the Apostle]

Based on my limited amount of knowledge about Israel's ever changing political landscape, I'd support Yesh Atid. Are there any good reasons I should not that I'm not aware of?

[Philjia]

Twenty Arab Labor activists have left the party claiming that the party cannot adequately represent Arab voters.

Meanwhile, another poll from Channel 13 is in, with seat projections as follows:
Likud: 28
Yesh Atid: 17
Blue & White: 4
Joint List: 8
Shas: 7
United Torah Judaism: 7
Yisrael Beiteinu: 5
Meretz: 5
Ra'am: 4
New Hope: 13
Yamina: 11
Labour: 6
Religious Zionist/Otzma Yehudit/Noam: 5

These results would give the following Knesset groups:
Pro Netenyahu (Likud, Blue and White, Shas, UTJ, Religious Zionists/Noam/Otzma Yehudit): 51
Anti Netenyahu (Yesh Atid, New Hope, Yamina, Yisrael Beitenu, Labor): 52
Arab Parties (Joint List, Ra'am): 12
Meretz: 5

Unsurprisingly, no group would have the numbers to form a government, and coalition compositions bringing parties from multiple groups together doesn't seem likely. The Arab Parties and Meretz would never work with Yamina and vice versa, Yesh Atid and Labor won't want to work with the Religious Zionists, and Yisrael Beitenu would object to working with Shas or UTJ. Netenyahu looks like he's burnt enough bridges and become personally toxic enough to finally lose, but Yair Lapid would only get to be PM long enough to arrange yet another unwinnable election.

[Visionary Union]

Twenty Arab Labor activists have left the party claiming that the party cannot adequately represent Arab voters.

Meanwhile, another poll from Channel 13 is in, with seat projections as follows:
Likud: 28
Yesh Atid: 17
Blue & White: 4
Joint List: 8
Shas: 7
United Torah Judaism: 7
Yisrael Beiteinu: 5
Meretz: 5
Ra'am: 4
New Hope: 13
Yamina: 11
Labour: 6
Religious Zionist/Otzma Yehudit/Noam: 5

These results would give the following Knesset groups:
Pro Netenyahu (Likud, Blue and White, Shas, UTJ, Religious Zionists/Noam/Otzma Yehudit): 51
Anti Netenyahu (Yesh Atid, New Hope, Yamina, Yisrael Beitenu, Labor): 52
Arab Parties (Joint List, Ra'am): 12
Meretz: 5

Unsurprisingly, no group would have the numbers to form a government, and coalition compositions bringing parties from multiple groups together doesn't seem likely. The Arab Parties and Meretz would never work with Yamina and vice versa, Yesh Atid and Labor won't want to work with the Religious Zionists, and Yisrael Beitenu would object to working with Shas or UTJ. Netenyahu looks like he's burnt enough bridges and become personally toxic enough to finally lose, but Yair Lapid would only get to be PM long enough to arrange yet another unwinnable election.

Oh, don't you worry, Lapid will never manage to become PM. The best that he can manage is rotation with Sa'ar, and we all know what went down with the previous rotation..

[Fahran]

Based on my limited amount of knowledge about Israel's ever changing political landscape, I'd support Yesh Atid. Are there any good reasons I should not that I'm not aware of?

I can't really say given your sig.